Kentucky 2023 gubernatorial election megathread

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Even after the COVID crap?

Surprisingly, it's not that big an issue to everyone. You might need to realize that to avoid disappointment.

Trust me, we won't forget.

[wbrocks67]

Even after the COVID crap?

Surprisingly, it's not that big an issue to everyone. You might need to realize that to avoid disappointment.

Trust me, we won't forget.

Since when was Beshear dinged for his handling of COVID? He consistently had high approvals throughout the peak...

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Since when was Beshear dinged for his handling of COVID? He consistently had high approvals throughout the peak...

He shut down the state.

[wbrocks67]

Since when was Beshear dinged for his handling of COVID? He consistently had high approvals throughout the peak...

He shut down the state.

Every state got "shut down." COVID was a difficult time and people were trying to figure everything out. People need to stop being so immature and holding all of this against people. You're a governor doing a global pandemic, you do what you think is right. Cut them a break. I'd rather a governor who tried to do what he/she thought was right and protect people. It's 2023. Get over it.

[Duke of York]

Since when was Beshear dinged for his handling of COVID? He consistently had high approvals throughout the peak...

He shut down the state.

I didn't;t like shut downs either. I thought they were an over reaction but its been two years. Let it go.

[BenjiG98]

Even after the COVID crap?

Surprisingly, it's not that big an issue to everyone. You might need to realize that to avoid disappointment.

Trust me, we won't forget.

We =/= you. Beshear is the most popular Democrat governor in the country right now. Clearly a majority of Kentucky does not feel the same way right now. They're mature enough to not hold grudges.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Every state got "shut down." COVID was a difficult time and people were trying to figure everything out. People need to stop being so immature and holding all of this against people. You're a governor doing a global pandemic, you do what you think is right. Cut them a break. I'd rather a governor who tried to do what he/she thought was right and protect people. It's 2023. Get over it.

We hold it against him because he kept at it in 2021, and he lied, and he did it to appease the Kentucky Chamber of Commerce. I think just recently he was still suing to keep his COVID powers, and was slapped down 7-0 by the Kentucky Supreme Court.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

The same people saying not to hold grudges because "it's all in the past" are usually the same people who say we should still require masks in 2023.

Who's really living in the past?

[GALeftist]

Why is Cameron even running in 2023? Obviously he could definitely win, but this specific race is probably the only race he will see in his lifetime that he could even plausibly lose.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Bandit, you've made the point that you don't like Beshear because of his COVID policies.  You don't need to keep repeating it.  Further replies in that vein will be deleted as spam.

[Skill and Chance]

I think Beshear is favored, but keep in mind that Dem incumbents in Appalachian states polling at 50-something to 30-something 6+ months before the election only for it to narrow dramatically in the fall has been very common historically. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

How about we just wait for a poll the Docugate has an impact the RS may launch an Impeachment inquiry not an Impeachment near Oct 23 right before the Nov Edays

When I donate I will donate to Elvis Cuz Brad Presley not Beshear because Andy Beshear has some type of scandal

[Pollster]

Pretty remarkable that Kelly Craft is polling so poorly given that she's had the airwaves to herself and has been blanketing the state with positive spots.

[Comrade Funk]

Even after the COVID crap?

Surprisingly, it's not that big an issue to everyone. You might need to realize that to avoid disappointment.

Trust me, we won't forget.

"We" isn't as big as you think.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

All these are Lean R until Sept when we see a poll after Docugate

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Pretty remarkable that Kelly Craft is polling so poorly given that she's had the airwaves to herself and has been blanketing the state with positive spots.

Reminds me of Catherine Templeton in SC-2018-GOV. She was out front first against McMaster and completely inundated the airways till people got sick of seeing her. There is such a thing as too much and too early in ads

[Hope For A New Era]

Even after the COVID crap?

What COVID crap? He was massively popular during COVID. One poll had him at 81% approval, second only to DeWine. You could even argue his continuing popularity since then has been a momentum phenomenon from that (see DeWine). It was his standout moment.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Even after the COVID crap?

Surprisingly, it's not that big an issue to everyone. You might need to realize that to avoid disappointment.

Trust me, we won't forget.

Perhaps the reason your majority is so silent is because it isn't a majority.

Anyway, what I thought was interesting with that poll was the approval breakdown by region:

https://twitter.com/malarkeyfree/status/1618668315983101953

[Duke of York]

All these are Lean R until Sept when we see a poll after Docugate

No one is going to casting a ballot for governor based on Docugate.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Ya'll think this might be another Laura-Kelly esq situation where a lot (but not all) of his rural crossover support erodes but be squeezes a few extra points out of greater Louisville, greater Lexington, the Cinci Burbs, and Bowling Green?

Also, 4 years of population shifts is prolly a slight net to Beshear in KY, but hard to say.

Whether this results in a win or loss is hard to say, especially since KY is a lot more rural than KS.

[TML]

Ya'll think this might be another Laura-Kelly esq situation where a lot (but not all) of his rural crossover support erodes but be squeezes a few extra points out of greater Louisville, greater Lexington, the Cinci Burbs, and Bowling Green?

Also, 4 years of population shifts is prolly a slight net to Beshear in KY, but hard to say.

Whether this results in a win or loss is hard to say, especially since KY is a lot more rural than KS.

In terms of the rural vote, remember that there are many voters in rural KY counties who are registered as Democrats out of tradition (since their ancestors were also registered as such) and/or convenience (since most local elected officials are Democrats) but who have voted Republican in recent years, especially for Federal offices at or near the top of the ticket. If you compare the 2019 results with those from 2020 and/or 2022, along with the turnout data from those years (which are broken down by county, party, age, gender, etc.), you will come to the conclusion that there must have been a very sizable share of voters in these rural areas who voted mostly D in 2019 (along with most earlier election years) but then proceeded to vote mostly R in 2020 and/or 2022. The 2023 election results in these counties will tell us whether or not these voters will revert to voting D when no federal races are on the ballot.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

All these are Lean R until Sept when we see a poll after Docugate

No one is going to casting a ballot for governor based on Docugate.

We haven't seen any polls from 24 Senate numbers OH, WV or MT and we are losing big in LA and MS Gov, so it hasn't been written yet and Andy Beshear has a 62 percent Approvals and Brown, Tester, Manchin and Casey have 45 percent, but RS still have deficits among Blk and  Latino and non Evangelical females that's why they keep losing


Last time I checked Casey wasn't leading by 15 that he typical wins by he was down by 5 to Mastriano

I don't care I am not an R Hillary, Biden and Bill Clinton are still liars I won't donate directly to Biden, Hillary said she didn't email classified documents

But RS give Giant tax cuts to rich

Only 2016 whom is nowhere to be found when good polls benefits D's he said Cameron was gonna be GOV

[Oryxslayer]

Ya'll think this might be another Laura-Kelly esq situation where a lot (but not all) of his rural crossover support erodes but be squeezes a few extra points out of greater Louisville, greater Lexington, the Cinci Burbs, and Bowling Green?

Also, 4 years of population shifts is prolly a slight net to Beshear in KY, but hard to say.

Whether this results in a win or loss is hard to say, especially since KY is a lot more rural than KS.

In terms of the rural vote, remember that there are many voters in rural KY counties who are registered as Democrats out of tradition (since their ancestors were also registered as such) and/or convenience (since most local elected officials are Democrats) but who have voted Republican in recent years, especially for Federal offices at or near the top of the ticket. If you compare the 2019 results with those from 2020 and/or 2022, along with the turnout data from those years (which are broken down by county, party, age, gender, etc.), you will come to the conclusion that there must have been a very sizable share of voters in these rural areas who voted mostly D in 2019 (along with most earlier election years) but then proceeded to vote mostly R in 2020 and/or 2022. The 2023 election results in these counties will tell us whether or not these voters will revert to voting D when no federal races are on the ballot.

We can go even deeper than that. The 'No' vote on the abortion restriction referendum won through a surge of support in the KY-04 part of the state. These weren't all suburbs, many were small-towns inside the orbit of major metros that voted Beshear in 2019 but not by anywhere close to comparable margins. And while the No vote captured most of the Beshear vote in the central Bluegrass rurals, it did not in the southeastern coal country rurals. Which suggests further political divergences may come in November.

Credit for maps from MCI:

[Bandit3 the Worker]

The "no on 2" side did better in many rural areas than in many urban areas. I think Carroll County and Henry County voted no, while Boone County and Daviess County voted yes.

People in many rural areas are sick of the government telling them what to do with their bodies. And it isn't just the abortion issue.

But lately there are some urban areas where people seem to enjoy being told what to do. Gentrification will do that.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Safe D, there is 5/6 Afro Americans in states like KY and MS that can change a race I doubt it will be this large because Beshear is at 52 percent but a 54/48 race is probable