Kentucky 2023 gubernatorial election megathread

[JMT]

Do KY Gubernatorial candidates still need to name their Lt. Governor running mates prior to the primary (I.e., do voters vote for the ticket in the primary)? It looks like Kelly Craft has selected State Senator Max Wise, but I haven’t heard anything from the other major candidates.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Users putting R still underestimate WC Ds

[UWS]

As I previously said Beshear, Presley, Manchin and Tester are WC D moderate on guns, D's do poorly in the S due in large part on guns no other social issues because Confederate flags are gone

Presley and Stein are competetive too Reeves up by 4 is the exact margin blks can make up the difference which is 4 and blks in MS are about 6% of population

Reeves won by 5 last time but didn't go against Brad Presley

Heidi Heitkamp too was moderate on guns, yet she lost by 10 points.

The reason why AG Cameron is currently trailing Beshear is because 52 % of voters have either a neutral or unknown vision of him so we have to wait until Cameron gets more known and the race will get tighter, increasing his chances to win

Beshear's stances are out of step with Kentucky. On taxes, he vetoed a bill reducing the state income tax to 4 percent and then got overrided. When the Kentucky legislature voted to allow Kentucky distilleries and breweries to qualify for a sales tax break on new equipment, Beshear vetoed the provision and he was overrided by the KY legislature

https://justfacts.votesmart.org/bill/32553/85124/156112/reduces-the-state-income-tax-to-4-percent#85124

https://news.bloombergtax.com/daily-tax-report-state/kentucky-legislators-override-vetoed-tax-break-for-distilleries

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

As I previously said Beshear, Presley, Manchin and Tester are WC D moderate on guns, D's do poorly in the S due in large part on guns no other social issues because Confederate flags are gone

Presley and Stein are competetive too Reeves up by 4 is the exact margin blks can make up the difference which is 4 and blks in MS are about 6% of population

Reeves won by 5 last time but didn't go against Brad Presley

Heidi Heitkamp too was moderate on guns, yet she lost by 10 points.

The reason why AG Cameron is currently trailing Beshear is because 52 % of voters have either a neutral or unknown vision of him so we have to wait until Cameron gets more known and the race will get tighter, increasing his chances to win

Beshear's stances are out of step with Kentucky. On taxes, he vetoed a bill reducing the state income tax to 4 percent and then got overrided. When the Kentucky legislature voted to allow Kentucky distilleries and breweries to qualify for a sales tax break on new equipment, Beshear vetoed the provision and he was overrided by the KY legislature

https://justfacts.votesmart.org/bill/32553/85124/156112/reduces-the-state-income-tax-to-4-percent#85124

https://news.bloombergtax.com/daily-tax-report-state/kentucky-legislators-override-vetoed-tax-break-for-distilleries

No one cares. Lots of very liberal dem governors won easily in 2022 because of incumbency. Even Laura Kelly in Kansas won. Beshear has +30% approval rating. He won't win by 30 because of polarization, and he will face GOP attacks, but he starts out as a favorite.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/JoelWeingart_/status/1618598932602580994

This is about where he needs to be at this point to have a real shot at pulling off a very narrow victory in November.  Starts at Tilt D, but far closer to Tilt R than Lean D.  

Nah I'm going to put it at Lean D and it moves to Likely D if the GOP can't close the gap by the summer.

Governors with Beshear's approval ratings basically never lose. And Laura Kelly for instance had nowhere near his ratings although they were still pretty good.

[Ferguson97]

If the best line of attack that the KY GOP can come up with his "his father loves him", I'm feeling fairly confident about his chances this November...

https://twitter.com/KYGOP/status/1622710107707408384

[OSR stands with Israel]

If the best line of attack that the KY GOP can come up with his "his father loves him", I'm feeling fairly confident about his chances this November...

https://twitter.com/KYGOP/status/1622710107707408384

What a weird and extremely sad thing for the guy running the account to post .

[President Johnson]

If the best line of attack that the KY GOP can come up with his "his father loves him", I'm feeling fairly confident about his chances this November...

https://twitter.com/KYGOP/status/1622710107707408384

I can never ever take anyone serious who unironically uses the font "Comic Sans MS". Never.

[Pollster]

If the best line of attack that the KY GOP can come up with his "his father loves him", I'm feeling fairly confident about his chances this November...

[snip]

The Kentucky Republican Party is an inept mess that has found itself in power due to forces almost entirely outside of its control.

[Utah Neolib]

If the best line of attack that the KY GOP can come up with his "his father loves him", I'm feeling fairly confident about his chances this November...

https://twitter.com/KYGOP/status/1622710107707408384

I can never ever take anyone serious who unironically uses the font "Comic Sans MS". Never.

I use Comic Sans as my email signature for this very reason.

[Alben Barkley]

I'm moving my rating to Sae D based on this:

https://twitter.com/KYGOP/status/1622710107707408384?s=20

[ReallySuper]

Do KY Gubernatorial candidates still need to name their Lt. Governor running mates prior to the primary (I.e., do voters vote for the ticket in the primary)? It looks like Kelly Craft has selected State Senator Max Wise, but I haven’t heard anything from the other major candidates.

no, the (gop supermajority) legislature changed the law in 2020 so that candidates declare their running mate after the primary now (probably anticipating the wide field there would be in 2023 and the need to unite the gop after the primary).

[Roll Roons]

I see no reason to think Beshear is anywhere close to an underdog.

Candidate quality matters, and there is no better candidate than a popular incumbent.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

I see no reason to think Beshear is anywhere close to an underdog.

Candidate quality matters, and there is no better candidate than a popular incumbent.

Particularly for off-off year gubernatorial elections.

[EastwoodS]

Side note, can we talk about how eerily and fundamentally similar the KY governor races have been to the following Presidential races since and including 2015??
2015: Matt Bevin, outsider, non-pc candidates reasonates with the state really well against a typical milquetoast candidate
2016 president: literally same thing happened
2019 KY: Unpopular so called “populist” governor loses to a moderate establishment Dem whose father ran the state for two terms.
2020 president: moderate establishment Dem beats an unpopular so callled “populist” president, president-elect served as VP for two terms.
2023 KY: likely Daniel Cameron (the Kentucky version of RDS) going against the Kentucky version of Joe Biden.
-this shall be interesting and if I do say so-very telling of what to expect in 2024.
Also, you can say the Ky gubernatorial race has been a bellwether for the presidency since 2003.
Eventually, I will say, polarization will catch up to KY sooner or later, but I think this trend will play out for a couple more cycles ..maybe.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Side note, can we talk about how eerily and fundamentally similar the KY governor races have been to the following Presidential races since and including 2015??
2015: Matt Bevin, outsider, non-pc candidates reasonates with the state really well against a typical milquetoast candidate
2016 president: literally same thing happened
2019 KY: Unpopular so called “populist” governor loses to a moderate establishment Dem whose father ran the state for two terms.
2020 president: moderate establishment Dem beats an unpopular so callled “populist” president, president-elect served as VP for two terms.
2023 KY: likely Daniel Cameron (the Kentucky version of RDS) going against the Kentucky version of Joe Biden.
-this shall be interesting and if I do say so-very telling of what to expect in 2024.
Also, you can say the Ky gubernatorial race has been a bellwether for the presidency since 2003.

Btw 2015 was a shocking upset just like 2016 was and in 2019 Bevin lost in large part due to being viewed to mismanage a health crises

[EastwoodS]

Side note, can we talk about how eerily and fundamentally similar the KY governor races have been to the following Presidential races since and including 2015??
2015: Matt Bevin, outsider, non-pc candidates reasonates with the state really well against a typical milquetoast candidate
2016 president: literally same thing happened
2019 KY: Unpopular so called “populist” governor loses to a moderate establishment Dem whose father ran the state for two terms.
2020 president: moderate establishment Dem beats an unpopular so callled “populist” president, president-elect served as VP for two terms.
2023 KY: likely Daniel Cameron (the Kentucky version of RDS) going against the Kentucky version of Joe Biden.
-this shall be interesting and if I do say so-very telling of what to expect in 2024.
Also, you can say the Ky gubernatorial race has been a bellwether for the presidency since 2003.

Btw 2015 was a shocking upset just like 2016 was and in 2019 Bevin lost in large part due to being viewed to mismanage a health crises

The similarities are so eerie.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Side note, can we talk about how eerily and fundamentally similar the KY governor races have been to the following Presidential races since and including 2015??
2015: Matt Bevin, outsider, non-pc candidates reasonates with the state really well against a typical milquetoast candidate
2016 president: literally same thing happened
2019 KY: Unpopular so called “populist” governor loses to a moderate establishment Dem whose father ran the state for two terms.
2020 president: moderate establishment Dem beats an unpopular so callled “populist” president, president-elect served as VP for two terms.
2023 KY: likely Daniel Cameron (the Kentucky version of RDS) going against the Kentucky version of Joe Biden.
-this shall be interesting and if I do say so-very telling of what to expect in 2024.
Also, you can say the Ky gubernatorial race has been a bellwether for the presidency since 2003.

Btw 2015 was a shocking upset just like 2016 was and in 2019 Bevin lost in large part due to being viewed to mismanage a health crises

The similarities are so eerie.

Yah they are and down to the fact that Beshear like Biden by restoring some democratic strength in the WWC part Bevin/Trump flipped(Eastern KY for Beshear and Rust Belt for Biden) even though it wasn’t as good as prior democrats.

[EastwoodS]

Side note, can we talk about how eerily and fundamentally similar the KY governor races have been to the following Presidential races since and including 2015??
2015: Matt Bevin, outsider, non-pc candidates reasonates with the state really well against a typical milquetoast candidate
2016 president: literally same thing happened
2019 KY: Unpopular so called “populist” governor loses to a moderate establishment Dem whose father ran the state for two terms.
2020 president: moderate establishment Dem beats an unpopular so callled “populist” president, president-elect served as VP for two terms.
2023 KY: likely Daniel Cameron (the Kentucky version of RDS) going against the Kentucky version of Joe Biden.
-this shall be interesting and if I do say so-very telling of what to expect in 2024.
Also, you can say the Ky gubernatorial race has been a bellwether for the presidency since 2003.

Btw 2015 was a shocking upset just like 2016 was and in 2019 Bevin lost in large part due to being viewed to mismanage a health crises

The similarities are so eerie.

Yah they are and down to the fact that Beshear like Biden by restoring some democratic strength in the WWC part Bevin/Trump flipped(Eastern KY for Beshear and Rust Belt for Biden) even though it wasn’t as good as prior democrats.

And also Beshear doing historically well in the suburbs of Louisville, Lexington and northern KY to get elected. Very similar to Biden and his suburban strategy as well, states like Ga and AZ come to mind in that regard.

[KYRockefeller]

I have argued here before that Ryan Quarles is the best opponent for Beshear because of his strength in rural areas (and how he could drive turnout there).  If Cameron wins the primary, I think Beshear wins the general election somewhat comfortably.  I will probably end up voting Beshear if Quarles isn't the nominee because I just see Cameron as an empty suit.

[Mr. Smith]

Side note, can we talk about how eerily and fundamentally similar the KY governor races have been to the following Presidential races since and including 2015??
2015: Matt Bevin, outsider, non-pc candidates reasonates with the state really well against a typical milquetoast candidate
2016 president: literally same thing happened
2019 KY: Unpopular so called “populist” governor loses to a moderate establishment Dem whose father ran the state for two terms.
2020 president: moderate establishment Dem beats an unpopular so callled “populist” president, president-elect served as VP for two terms.
2023 KY: likely Daniel Cameron (the Kentucky version of RDS) going against the Kentucky version of Joe Biden.
-this shall be interesting and if I do say so-very telling of what to expect in 2024.
Also, you can say the Ky gubernatorial race has been a bellwether for the presidency since 2003.
Eventually, I will say, polarization will catch up to KY sooner or later, but I think this trend will play out for a couple more cycles ..maybe.

Bevin actually won, albeit thanks to low turnout.

Trump lost by 2 million, even with then sky-high turnout.

Besides, 1999 went D while Gore lost the next year..unless you decide the 500K counts.

[TDAS04]

I might have underestimated Beshear earlier.  He’s more likely to get re-elected than not.

[GoTfan]

Do the Republicans have any sane or normal candidates? Sure, Democrats have their bomb-throwers, but they know when to shut up and keep their heads down (most of the time). Did the last two years break their brains or something?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I might have underestimated Beshear earlier.  He’s more likely to get re-elected than not.

We won KS 22 and users still think it's only 303

[DrScholl]

https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/meetthepressblog/new-tv-ad-ties-kentucky-ag-daniel-cameron-manhattan-d-rcna79093

The new TV ad from Commonwealth PAC, a group backing former United Nations Ambassador Kelly Craft in the GOP primary, features a clip of Cameron talking about a plan to "move to a no-money bail system." Then the ad displays a clip of Bragg backing a plan to eliminate cash bail.

Later, the narrator says, "Cameron agrees with the George Soros-backed D.A. who prosecuted Trump."

As the narrator says this, a photo of Cameron and a photo of Bragg, both Black men, are placed next to each other, alongside text that says, "Cameron and Bragg: Against cash bail."

At the end of the ad, the narrator says, "Daniel Cameron, Kentucky's soft on crime teddy bear."

Daniel Cameron is about to find out that White Republicans still see him as Black.