Kentucky 2023 gubernatorial election megathread
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  Kentucky 2023 gubernatorial election megathread
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Poll
Question: Rate the 2023 Kentucky gubernatorial election
#1
Safe D
 
#2
Likely D
 
#3
Lean D
 
#4
Tossup/tilt D
 
#5
Tossup/tilt R
 
#6
Lean R
 
#7
Likely R
 
#8
Safe R
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 262

Author Topic: Kentucky 2023 gubernatorial election megathread  (Read 45178 times)
Real Texan Politics
EEllis02
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« on: January 26, 2021, 03:36:11 PM »
« edited: August 16, 2023, 11:44:23 PM by Real Texan Politics »

Ahh Kentucky, a ruby red state home of baseball, bourbon, KFC, the Kentucky Derby, and a young(ish) incumbent democrat governor who's eligible for re-election in 2023. Who would've guessed?

So with Andy Beshear up for re-election, there really is no need to talk about other potential democrat primary challengers are there currently aren't any listed on wikipedia, so I'll just mention some republicans. And no, Rand Paul isn't one of them, but Matt Bevin is. Other republican primary challengers include Daniel Cameron (current attorney general of Kentucky), Allison Ball (current Kentucky state treasurer), James Comer (current congressman from KY-01), Savannah Maddox (member of the Kentucky house from the 61st district), and Ryan Quarles (the current Kentucky agriculture commissioner).

And while not listed on wikipedia as a potential candidate, let me be the first to say this: be on the lookout for Papa John himself, John Schnatter, potentially running for governor, who would more than likely run as a republican due to his support of Donald Trump. Though after his downfall due to a slur-filled conference call, this may end up being Beshear's best candidate to beat.

Kentucky, like Louisiana, is a ruby red state on the federal level which just so happens to be kind of a blue state on the state level, with a few republicans elected here and there (but the ones elected typically serve one term before losing re-election). Based on this, it's probably safe to rate Kentucky as D for now, though the margin of victory could definitely be in question, especially if the republicans run a decent candidate. Speaking of that, Daniel Cameron is probably out of the question in terms of winning the election due to his reponse to the death of Breonna Taylor, and Papa John Schnatter for previously mentioned reasons. Plus Matt Bevin lost in 2019 due to his massive unpopularity, so republicans have some searching to do.

My current rating prediction: Lean D
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If my soul was made of stone
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« Reply #1 on: January 26, 2021, 03:40:32 PM »

Beshear is inoffensive and popular, and has absolutely zero ability to accomplish anything divisive 'cause the GOP have such a stranglehold on the legislature and the row offices. Unless Biden's tanking incredibly hard by the time 2023 rolls around, I'd consider him a modest favorite.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #2 on: January 26, 2021, 03:45:15 PM »

Lean D for now. I actually don't think Comer runs - he just became the lead Republican on House Oversight. Beshear won't get the landslide reelection that his dad did, just because the state's become more Republican. But it seems like he's pretty popular, and that's almost always the best predictor of a governor's reelection chances.
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Frodo
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« Reply #3 on: January 26, 2021, 05:33:32 PM »

Kentucky, like Louisiana, is a ruby red state on the federal level which just so happens to be kind of a blue state on the state level, with a few republicans elected here and there (but the ones elected typically serve one term before losing re-election). Based on this, it's probably safe to rate Kentucky as D for now, though the margin of victory could definitely be in question, especially if the republicans run a decent candidate.

Republicans are near parity in voter registration, and have an overwhelming supermajority in both houses of the legislature that will be entrenched and consolidated, especially after redistricting and gerrymandering Democrats to near-oblivion.

I would say rather that Kentucky at the state and local levels is almost as Republican as it is at the federal level. 
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VAR
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« Reply #4 on: January 26, 2021, 05:35:37 PM »

Tilt R
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TML
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« Reply #5 on: January 26, 2021, 05:51:50 PM »
« Edited: January 26, 2021, 06:05:32 PM by TML »

Beshear's reelection chances largely depend on how popular he is by Election Day 2023. Remember that Bevin's approval rating was well underwater by Election Day 2019, which I believe is the biggest contributor to his loss. Additionally, high approval ratings earned John Bel Edwards, Larry Hogan, Phil Scott, and Charlie Baker reelection wins in the last few years despite their political parties being the opposite of their respective states' partisan leans.
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Continential
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« Reply #6 on: January 26, 2021, 06:12:08 PM »

Likely R because even with a heavily unpopular governor, Beshear only won by the skin of his teeth.
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bee33
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« Reply #7 on: January 26, 2021, 06:30:41 PM »

It will be close, but a Republican will win.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #8 on: January 26, 2021, 06:54:04 PM »

Safe R unless Beshear faces Matt Bevin again, in which case it's Lean R. I expect him to lose bigly.
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morgieb
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« Reply #9 on: January 26, 2021, 08:28:38 PM »

Depends on his approvals. If they remain as strong as they do there's no reason why he can't win comfortably.....just look at Baker, Scott and Hogan.

But it's hard to say anything other than "Tossup" this far out.
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EastwoodS
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« Reply #10 on: January 27, 2021, 06:51:03 AM »
« Edited: January 27, 2021, 09:46:11 AM by EastwoodS »

I read in a article post-November 2020 that one of the prominent Democrats in the KY state legislature lost his re-election, maybe it was the Boyle county area? Can’t remember for sure, but his constituent came up to him and said “it’s not that we don’t like you or we don’t like the work you’re doing, it’s just that you’re a Democrat” I wish I could find that article but I was shocked when I saw it, I had to to dig for it though.  
Ky voter registration has gone from nearly 50-40, Democratic advantage(2017) to 44.14-46.65 Democratic advantage (December  2020).
Let’s also note that Bevin almost become the first Republican in Kentucky history to win a Republican governorship for the second time, and he was insanely unpopular. Also, David Cameron is pretty popular too, but you don’t necessarily see that same sentiment in person do you? and friends I can definitely tell you, there’s something wrong with that Beshear approval rating, it’s decent but not high enough where he should sleep comfortable with the idea of winning a clear re-election. I would describe his approval rating as “apathetically high” meaning I doubt it’ll translate into votes, as time goes on, Democrats are going to have to have more than just a good approval rating too; the numbers are just getting too challenging for them to overcome.
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bee33
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« Reply #11 on: January 27, 2021, 01:30:12 PM »

I wonder if Elliott county will stay Democratic.
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Real Texan Politics
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« Reply #12 on: January 27, 2021, 01:49:27 PM »

I read in a article post-November 2020 that one of the prominent Democrats in the KY state legislature lost his re-election, maybe it was the Boyle county area? Can’t remember for sure, but his constituent came up to him and said “it’s not that we don’t like you or we don’t like the work you’re doing, it’s just that you’re a Democrat” I wish I could find that article but I was shocked when I saw it, I had to to dig for it though.  
Ky voter registration has gone from nearly 50-40, Democratic advantage(2017) to 44.14-46.65 Democratic advantage (December  2020).
Let’s also note that Bevin almost become the first Republican in Kentucky history to win a Republican governorship for the second time, and he was insanely unpopular. Also, David Cameron is pretty popular too, but you don’t necessarily see that same sentiment in person do you? and friends I can definitely tell you, there’s something wrong with that Beshear approval rating, it’s decent but not high enough where he should sleep comfortable with the idea of winning a clear re-election. I would describe his approval rating as “apathetically high” meaning I doubt it’ll translate into votes, as time goes on, Democrats are going to have to have more than just a good approval rating too; the numbers are just getting too challenging for them to overcome.

About David Cameron, despite having approval ratings above 50%, there are two words that will be detrimental to his campaign, and those two words are...

Breonna Taylor

As I've mentioned before, Cameron was the attorney general at the time of Taylor's death, and that's a position he still has today. However, I also found out he is currently facing impeachment due to his response to Taylor's death, which may or may not hurt his chances with independents. It probably hurts him a lot more if the cops that killed Taylor are still free by the 2023 election, but the damage may have already been done to his campaign. Not to mention the heavy amount of attack ads towards him that would probably be paid for by activist groups like BLM. Those could end up being brutal to him and his campaign.

So yea, if it weren't for Breonna Taylor's death, he would probably have a decent chance at being elected governor. But unfortunately due to those events and his highly controversial response, he's DOA in my opinion, and would probably be an almost guaranteed victory for Beshear if Cameron's the republican nominee. Or maybe Cameron wins and the polls will show it to be much closer than it actually is.

I wonder if Elliott county will stay Democratic.

Elliott surprisingly stays democratic at the state level, and I think it voted for Beshear as well. I'd say Elliott votes for Beshear again unless republicans nominate a populist candidate.
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Flyersfan232
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« Reply #13 on: January 29, 2021, 08:09:41 PM »

What about Bevin former lt governor?
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Real Texan Politics
EEllis02
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« Reply #14 on: January 29, 2021, 11:24:44 PM »


Jenean Hampton? Not sure. Republicans would probably attack her for voting for the libertarian candidate in 2019 instead of Bevin.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #15 on: January 29, 2021, 11:55:46 PM »

Lean D for now, Beshear has done wonders during Covid, LA probably goes R
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Flyersfan232
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« Reply #16 on: January 30, 2021, 09:18:19 AM »


Jenean Hampton? Not sure. Republicans would probably attack her for voting for the libertarian candidate in 2019 instead of Bevin.
I mean rand Paul endorse Gary Johnson for senate. And is son of ron Paul
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Flyersfan232
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« Reply #17 on: February 01, 2021, 04:55:08 PM »

I read in a article post-November 2020 that one of the prominent Democrats in the KY state legislature lost his re-election, maybe it was the Boyle county area? Can’t remember for sure, but his constituent came up to him and said “it’s not that we don’t like you or we don’t like the work you’re doing, it’s just that you’re a Democrat” I wish I could find that article but I was shocked when I saw it, I had to to dig for it though.  
Ky voter registration has gone from nearly 50-40, Democratic advantage(2017) to 44.14-46.65 Democratic advantage (December  2020).
Let’s also note that Bevin almost become the first Republican in Kentucky history to win a Republican governorship for the second time, and he was insanely unpopular. Also, David Cameron is pretty popular too, but you don’t necessarily see that same sentiment in person do you? and friends I can definitely tell you, there’s something wrong with that Beshear approval rating, it’s decent but not high enough where he should sleep comfortable with the idea of winning a clear re-election. I would describe his approval rating as “apathetically high” meaning I doubt it’ll translate into votes, as time goes on, Democrats are going to have to have more than just a good approval rating too; the numbers are just getting too challenging for them to overcome.

About David Cameron, despite having approval ratings above 50%, there are two words that will be detrimental to his campaign, and those two words are...

Breonna Taylor

As I've mentioned before, Cameron was the attorney general at the time of Taylor's death, and that's a position he still has today. However, I also found out he is currently facing impeachment due to his response to Taylor's death, which may or may not hurt his chances with independents. It probably hurts him a lot more if the cops that killed Taylor are still free by the 2023 election, but the damage may have already been done to his campaign. Not to mention the heavy amount of attack ads towards him that would probably be paid for by activist groups like BLM. Those could end up being brutal to him and his campaign.

So yea, if it weren't for Breonna Taylor's death, he would probably have a decent chance at being elected governor. But unfortunately due to those events and his highly controversial response, he's DOA in my opinion, and would probably be an almost guaranteed victory for Beshear if Cameron's the republican nominee. Or maybe Cameron wins and the polls will show it to be much closer than it actually is.

I wonder if Elliott county will stay Democratic.

Elliott surprisingly stays democratic at the state level, and I think it voted for Beshear as well. I'd say Elliott votes for Beshear again unless republicans nominate a populist candidate.
kentucky is a red state also dem in white house
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CrimsonCommander688
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« Reply #18 on: February 03, 2021, 05:53:49 PM »

What if Savannah Maddox gets the nomination?
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KYRockefeller
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« Reply #19 on: February 06, 2021, 04:04:24 AM »

One name that can't be ignored is Mike Harmon, the state auditor.  He's got that Mike Pence-like lane for the socially conservative Republicans and also has ties to the old Tea Party movement.  He's also done a good job in the state auditor role and there's not much left for him to do in state government except run for the top job.

I think the strongest GOP candidate is either James Comer or Ryan Quarles.  Both have good ratings in the state, avoid the extremes that other GOP candidates can be tied in with, and can point to accomplishments as agriculture commissioners, which can boost their numbers in Kentucky's rural areas.

For Beshear to win he's going to need to get big margins from Louisville and Lexington and then repeat a lot of the map against Bevin.  Problem is, any candidate that doesn't have Matt Bevin's baggage is going to make that tough.  For example, I can't see Beshear winning the same number of votes in Northern Kentucky that he did in 2019.
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Real Texan Politics
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« Reply #20 on: February 20, 2021, 12:24:28 AM »

Checked back on the wikipedia article for the election, and one notable name has been removed from the potential republican candidates list: Matt Bevin.

But we do have a new potential GOP candidate: Kelly Craft (former UN Ambassador under Donald Trump (2019-2021) and former US Ambassador to Canada (2017-2019)).

For those who don't know, Kelly Craft is from Lexington, KY, and got her BA from the University of Kentucky. Her husband is Joe Craft, who is a billionaire and CEO of Alliance Resource Partners, the third largest coal producer in the eastern United States.

As for where wikipedia got the information from, here is the source: https://www.politico.com/news/2021/01/28/trump-donor-campaigns-463363

Does she have a chance if she runs?
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kwabbit
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« Reply #21 on: February 20, 2021, 03:16:43 PM »

Is the Breonna Taylor scandal really damaging to Cameron in any real sense? I don’t think any GOP primary voters would be upset by it, in fact not convicting the police who murdered her might even be beneficial for him. I don’t think it would be terribly harmful to him in a a general either. Yes, he might lose Louisville and Lexington by more, but he would still by 20 overall.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #22 on: February 20, 2021, 03:27:12 PM »

Lean D for now. I actually don't think Comer runs - he just became the lead Republican on House Oversight. Beshear won't get the landslide reelection that his dad did, just because the state's become more Republican. But it seems like he's pretty popular, and that's almost always the best predictor of a governor's reelection chances.

Well, he is popular according to the same polls which had the KY Sen race in the single digits.
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TML
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« Reply #23 on: February 20, 2021, 04:43:11 PM »

I wonder if Elliott county will stay Democratic.

In 2020, it voted Republican in every single federal contest, and it only voted Democratic in some local contests. In fact, a news report around Election Day 2020 indicated that many of the voters registered with the Democratic Party there vote Republican for most (if not all) races but are registered as Democrats out of convenience/tradition. Thus, whether or not this county stays D for the 2023 gubernatorial race depends on how nationalized this race becomes - if it is nationalized to a significant extent, this county will go R; if it is mostly localized, it may stay D.
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KYRockefeller
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« Reply #24 on: February 21, 2021, 02:19:24 AM »

It's also hard to predict how a GOP primary will go because of how low turnout is in these off-year elections.  Something like 20% or less of voters participate on the regular, so the candidate who can fire up just enough voters will get across the finish line.  Can lead to wacky results because I don't think a lot of people seriously thought Matt Bevin was going to be the nominee in 2015, even after abuse allegations against Comer surfaced in the race.

A change in KY electoral law to where the gubernatorial nominees don't have to name their running mate until after the primary might also create a more crowded field than usual.
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