Kentucky 2023 gubernatorial election megathread

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Beshear is favored, D's should have the Majority of Govs after this Election

[Not Me, Us]

It's also hard to predict how a GOP primary will go because of how low turnout is in these off-year elections.  Something like 20% or less of voters participate on the regular, so the candidate who can fire up just enough voters will get across the finish line.  Can lead to wacky results because I don't think a lot of people seriously thought Matt Bevin was going to be the nominee in 2015, even after abuse allegations against Comer surfaced in the race.

A change in KY electoral law to where the gubernatorial nominees don't have to name their running mate until after the primary might also create a more crowded field than usual.

Is this something that has already been passed or is it just hypothetical?

[Calthrina950]

Beshear's reelection chances largely depend on how popular he is by Election Day 2023. Remember that Bevin's approval rating was well underwater by Election Day 2019, which I believe is the biggest contributor to his loss. Additionally, high approval ratings earned John Bel Edwards, Larry Hogan, Phil Scott, and Charlie Baker reelection wins in the last few years despite their political parties being the opposite of their respective states' partisan leans.

Edwards, however, only won reelection by a narrow margin, while Hogan, Scott, and Baker were reelected in landslides, with the latter two obtaining nearly 70% of the vote. Beshear, if he survives, will be lucky to win by the margin (2-3%) that Edwards did. As of now, my suspicion is that he will go down, although I don't know who the Republican nominee might be.

[smoltchanov]

Except for case, where Republicans nominate their own "Roy Moore", i am reasonably sure in their victory. Not overwhelming, but - solid... Beshear and JBE are "the last of mohicans" for Democrats, just as Hogan, Baker, and Scott - for Republicans. Soon - 95+% of partisan elections in US will be, essentially, useless - utterly predictable from very beginning.. May be - even 98+....

[MT Treasurer]

Except for case, where Republicans nominate their own "Roy Moore", i am reasonably sure in their victory. Not overwhelming, but - solid... Beshear and JBE are "the last of mohicans" for Democrats, just as Hogan, Baker, and Scott - for Republicans. Soon - 95+% of partisan elections in US will be, essentially, useless - utterly predictable from very beginning.. May be - even 98+....

There’s not a single statewide elected Democrat or Democrat in Congress right now who’s genuinely moderate or who will ever actually stand up to their own party. Maybe that has something to do with this so-called 'polarization' that people somehow can’t seem to grasp.

What reason is there for a Republican-leaning voter to even support a Democrat nowadays? Even the ones who brand themselves as 'conservatives' are clearly always reliable votes for their party in the end &, in the case of the governors, prioritize Democratic legislation being implemented or veto power being exercised more than anything else. Elections might become more predictable (not that optimistic, but hope you’re right) because the politicians have become very predictable.

[Alcibiades]

Except for case, where Republicans nominate their own "Roy Moore", i am reasonably sure in their victory. Not overwhelming, but - solid... Beshear and JBE are "the last of mohicans" for Democrats, just as Hogan, Baker, and Scott - for Republicans. Soon - 95+% of partisan elections in US will be, essentially, useless - utterly predictable from very beginning.. May be - even 98+....

There’s not a single statewide elected Democrat or Democrat in Congress right now who’s genuinely moderate or who will ever actually stand up to their own party. Maybe that has something to do with this so-called 'polarization' that people somehow can’t seem to grasp.

What reason is there for a Republican-leaning voter to even support a Democrat nowadays? Even the ones who brand themselves as 'conservatives' are clearly always reliable votes for their party in the end &, in the case of the governors, prioritize Democratic legislation being implemented or veto power being exercised more than anything else. Elections might become more predictable (not that optimistic, but hope you’re right) because the politicians have become very predictable.

I mean, I think it’s pretty obvious that Republican officials have been responsible for driving the bulk of polarisation:



Source: https://legacy.voteview.com/political_polarization_2015.htm

[SnowLabrador]

Unless Matt Bevin is the GOP nominee again, Beshear is screwed in 2023.

[EastwoodS]

Unless Matt Bevin is the GOP nominee again, Beshear is screwed in 2023.

I don’t necessarily agree with that. He could absolutely be re-elected, the only reason he isn’t is if Democrats are just complacent and don’t show up, which is likely but not a given.

[smoltchanov]

Except for case, where Republicans nominate their own "Roy Moore", i am reasonably sure in their victory. Not overwhelming, but - solid... Beshear and JBE are "the last of mohicans" for Democrats, just as Hogan, Baker, and Scott - for Republicans. Soon - 95+% of partisan elections in US will be, essentially, useless - utterly predictable from very beginning.. May be - even 98+....

There’s not a single statewide elected Democrat or Democrat in Congress right now who’s genuinely moderate or who will ever actually stand up to their own party. Maybe that has something to do with this so-called 'polarization' that people somehow can’t seem to grasp.

What reason is there for a Republican-leaning voter to even support a Democrat nowadays? Even the ones who brand themselves as 'conservatives' are clearly always reliable votes for their party in the end &, in the case of the governors, prioritize Democratic legislation being implemented or veto power being exercised more than anything else. Elections might become more predictable (not that optimistic, but hope you’re right) because the politicians have become very predictable.

Mostly agree, but, except for people i mentioned - the same is basically true for Republicans. And in state legislatures - probably to even greater degree, then for Democrats. And that's (sorry for repeat) is exactly the reason why it became so uninterestig to observe US elections from abroad - "the game" became too predictable, and thus - very boring... Personally i was very intersted in observing and analyzing them in 1970th-1990th, mostly interested until 2014, but - not now...

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Likely R because even with a heavily unpopular governor, Beshear only won by the skin of his teeth.

TBF Bevin did not really have any earth-shattering scandals, and was unpopular only because of his policies, and had the full and complete support of Fmr. President Trump.

[EastwoodS]

Likely R because even with a heavily unpopular governor, Beshear only won by the skin of his teeth.

TBF Bevin did not really have any earth-shattering scandals, and was unpopular only because of his policies, and had the full and complete support of Fmr. President Trump.

The biggest thing they hated, by far, more than anything was his contempt for public school teachers and the unions.

[Frodo]

Except for case, where Republicans nominate their own "Roy Moore", i am reasonably sure in their victory. Not overwhelming, but - solid... Beshear and JBE are "the last of mohicans" for Democrats, just as Hogan, Baker, and Scott - for Republicans. Soon - 95+% of partisan elections in US will be, essentially, useless - utterly predictable from very beginning.. May be - even 98+....

There’s not a single statewide elected Democrat or Democrat in Congress right now who’s genuinely moderate or who will ever actually stand up to their own party. Maybe that has something to do with this so-called 'polarization' that people somehow can’t seem to grasp.

What reason is there for a Republican-leaning voter to even support a Democrat nowadays? Even the ones who brand themselves as 'conservatives' are clearly always reliable votes for their party in the end &, in the case of the governors, prioritize Democratic legislation being implemented or veto power being exercised more than anything else. Elections might become more predictable (not that optimistic, but hope you’re right) because the politicians have become very predictable.

Mostly agree, but, except for people i mentioned - the same is basically true for Republicans. And in state legislatures - probably to even greater degree, then for Democrats. And that's (sorry for repeat) is exactly the reason why it became so uninterestig to observe US elections from abroad - "the game" became too predictable, and thus - very boring... Personally i was very intersted in observing and analyzing them in 1970th-1990th, mostly interested until 2014, but - not now...

If our politics has become so 'boring' and 'predictable' to you, why do you still follow it?  You clearly have some lingering interest.  If you didn't, you wouldn't still be here on Atlas telling us this.    

[smoltchanov]

Except for case, where Republicans nominate their own "Roy Moore", i am reasonably sure in their victory. Not overwhelming, but - solid... Beshear and JBE are "the last of mohicans" for Democrats, just as Hogan, Baker, and Scott - for Republicans. Soon - 95+% of partisan elections in US will be, essentially, useless - utterly predictable from very beginning.. May be - even 98+....

There’s not a single statewide elected Democrat or Democrat in Congress right now who’s genuinely moderate or who will ever actually stand up to their own party. Maybe that has something to do with this so-called 'polarization' that people somehow can’t seem to grasp.

What reason is there for a Republican-leaning voter to even support a Democrat nowadays? Even the ones who brand themselves as 'conservatives' are clearly always reliable votes for their party in the end &, in the case of the governors, prioritize Democratic legislation being implemented or veto power being exercised more than anything else. Elections might become more predictable (not that optimistic, but hope you’re right) because the politicians have become very predictable.

Mostly agree, but, except for people i mentioned - the same is basically true for Republicans. And in state legislatures - probably to even greater degree, then for Democrats. And that's (sorry for repeat) is exactly the reason why it became so uninterestig to observe US elections from abroad - "the game" became too predictable, and thus - very boring... Personally i was very intersted in observing and analyzing them in 1970th-1990th, mostly interested until 2014, but - not now...

If our politics has become so 'boring' and 'predictable' to you, why do you still follow it?  You clearly have some lingering interest.  If you didn't, you wouldn't still be here on Atlas telling us this.    

You are absolutely correct. I began to follow US politics in early 1970th (before Watergate), and was very interested in it until 2000 at least. Old habits die slowly, so i still have (as you correctly said) some lingeing interest, but - much less, then before, and the word "lingering" is a key one... My 30+ papers on this subject (in Russian, of course) probably reflect that very well...

[Real Texan Politics]

Update: James Comer is out according to the AP. (source: https://apnews.com/article/kentucky-matt-bevin-james-comer-jack-conway-51ea3474091c45a06dcb5b88d610a144

Another update: Mike Harmon, the Kentucky state auditor, has declared his candidacy. (source: https://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/politics/2021/07/12/state-auditor-mike-harmon-running-for-kentucky-governor/7935502002/)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Beshear will win

[MargieCat]

I could see Kelly Craft running in this race.

[Alben Barkley]

Tossup/Tilt D is the only correct answer.

And I still think Savannah Maddox is the most likely Republican nominee, though I am less certain about that.

[Alben Barkley]

Likely R because even with a heavily unpopular governor, Beshear only won by the skin of his teeth.

TBF Bevin did not really have any earth-shattering scandals, and was unpopular only because of his policies, and had the full and complete support of Fmr. President Trump.

The biggest thing they hated, by far, more than anything was his contempt for public school teachers and the unions.

Which gives Beshear a pretty easy point to bludgeon any Republican trying to succeed him with: "Do you or do you not believe that public school teachers deserve to be paid fairly and receive the pensions they earned?"

I can honestly say the fact that Kentucky responded so strongly in favor of the teachers brought tears to my eyes; my mother is a public school teacher after all, so I was incredibly moved to see how much of the state responded viscerally in favor of the teachers and against Bevin.

I'm not saying this alone means Beshear will win again by any means. In general I am far less certain about this race than I was about 2019, when I just KNEW in my gut Beshear would win. But I do think that if his campaign manages to tie the Republican nominee, whoever it is, more with Bevin than anybody else, AND specifically manages to tie them to Bevin's clashes with the teachers, that just might be enough for him to be re-elected.

[Alben Barkley]

Except for case, where Republicans nominate their own "Roy Moore", i am reasonably sure in their victory. Not overwhelming, but - solid... Beshear and JBE are "the last of mohicans" for Democrats, just as Hogan, Baker, and Scott - for Republicans. Soon - 95+% of partisan elections in US will be, essentially, useless - utterly predictable from very beginning.. May be - even 98+....

There’s not a single statewide elected Democrat or Democrat in Congress right now who’s genuinely moderate or who will ever actually stand up to their own party. Maybe that has something to do with this so-called 'polarization' that people somehow can’t seem to grasp.

What reason is there for a Republican-leaning voter to even support a Democrat nowadays? Even the ones who brand themselves as 'conservatives' are clearly always reliable votes for their party in the end &, in the case of the governors, prioritize Democratic legislation being implemented or veto power being exercised more than anything else. Elections might become more predictable (not that optimistic, but hope you’re right) because the politicians have become very predictable.

My friend, I know how much it frustrates you that you cannot simply plug "D=X, R=Y, therefore state that is R>D will be Y>X" into your TI-84 and come up with foolproof election results. But alas, that is not now, never has been, and never will be how the human mind works, when it comes to deciding how to vote or anything else. The very fact that Beshear won despite all your (very smug) predictions to the contrary should be proof enough of that. The people in this state and most others simply do not base their votes for the most part on cold mathematical calculations regarding which politician votes most in line with their preferred party most of the time. In fact, this state more than most all others has a long history of people electing politicians AGAINST what those simple calculations would predict, often purely on personal connections people feel to politicians.

In the end, I think Beshear's fate will ultimately rest on that far more than any kind of equation you could conjure up. The simple question will be whether they approve of him personally (and he is certainly a likable man) and his COVID response (a more divisive question in this state but which has for the most part been in his favor) over whoever his GOP challenger turns out to be. If it turns out to be a diehard Bevin disciple like Maddox as I still expect it to be, I think he's got a strong chance to say the least. The GOP would be foolish to write off this race as a guaranteed pick-up, that's for sure; if they really want to win it they need to find a candidate with broader appeal. Someone who ain't gonna lose most of the ancestral Dem counties in Eastern Kentucky and the Cincy suburbs. Because if you do that as a Republican, you are absolutely dead in this state.

[Real Texan Politics]

Time for an update bump!

We've got another republican challenger, this one being Eric Deters, a retired personal injury attorney without a wikipedia page. Not sure if he entered before or after Harmon.

Should also mention there is a new "publicly expressed interest" republican that is listed, that being Max Wise, a Kentucky state senator from the 16th district. Could he be one to watch?

[Senator-elect Spark]

Unless Matt Bevin is the GOP nominee again, Beshear is screwed in 2023.

[ElectionsGuy]

I think a lot of people here will change their minds about this after 2022.

[Xing]

I’m not going to call Beshear done for yet, but he’s probably at least an underdog, at this point. Perhaps Lean R is where I’d put the race now. Funny how Democratic governors in red states either barely scrape by or even lose if they’re popular, while many Republican governors in blue states get re-elected in landslides even when the environment is good for Democrats. Wonder why that is…

[MT Treasurer]

I’m not going to call Beshear done for yet, but he’s probably at least an underdog, at this point. Perhaps Lean R is where I’d put the race now. Funny how Democratic governors in red states either barely scrape by or even lose if they’re popular, while many Republican governors in blue states get re-elected in landslides even when the environment is good for Democrats. Wonder why that is…

Might have something to do with the fact that blue state Republicans actively distance themselves from the national party (to say nothing of the fact that they have to deal with heavily D legislatures, which essentially makes conservative governance in those states impossible even with Republican governors) and red state Democrats don’t/run as generic Democrats. But of course you people will believe in your nonsensical "asymmetric polarization benefits Republicans" talking point to feel morally superior — you’re not genuinely interested in debating this (otherwise you’d point out the disparity between red state Democratic vs. blue state Republican overperformances in the Senate and even House races) and it’s unfortunately impossible to change your mind.

[Xing]

I’m not going to call Beshear done for yet, but he’s probably at least an underdog, at this point. Perhaps Lean R is where I’d put the race now. Funny how Democratic governors in red states either barely scrape by or even lose if they’re popular, while many Republican governors in blue states get re-elected in landslides even when the environment is good for Democrats. Wonder why that is…

Might have something to do with the fact that blue state Republicans actively distance themselves from the national party (to say nothing of the fact that they have to deal with heavily D legislatures, which essentially makes conservative governance in those states impossible even with Republican governors) and red state Democrats don’t/run as generic Democrats. But of course you people will believe in your nonsensical "asymmetric polarization benefits Republicans" talking point to feel morally superior — you’re not genuinely interested in debating this (otherwise you’d point out the disparity between red state Democratic vs. blue state Republican overperformances in the Senate and even House races) and it’s unfortunately impossible to change your mind.

Hogan and Sununu are absolutely fake moderates, but because they “act” moderate, they get swaths of crossover support, while Democrats like Edwards who absolutely distanced himself from national Democrats just squeaked by, and Kelly, who also did, is likely headed for defeat and not a particularly close one. I’ve provided many examples of this, zero of which have been addressed, but sure, I’m the one acting morally superior. At least I make some effort to hold Democrats to some kind of standard, rather than acting as though deal-breaking vices in one party are virtues or “playing the game wisely” for members of the other party. I’m not saying that Beshear necessarily “deserves” hoards of Republican votes, but then why do the many Republicans who win in swing/Democratic leaning areas but govern them as though they’re rural Oklahoma?