Kentucky 2023 gubernatorial election megathread

[Sir Mohamed]

Poll finds Beshear at 60% approval, despite Rand Paul up double digits for the senate. Approvals/disapprovals are not automatic votes for one candidate or another, but if that keeps up Beshear is far from DOA. Perhaps even slightly favored.

If reelected, he'd be a strong VP candidate for any nominee not named Biden (obviously for Biden, too, though he won't drop Harris).

https://twitter.com/PollsandOdds/status/1487061007214252038

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I was right Beshear is gonna easily win

[Real Texan Politics]

Definitely good news for Beshear, but he’s not entirely safe even with decent approvals just based on the environment as well as partisan politics. As of now I still expect Beshear to go down, but it could also depend on the GOP candidate choice.

[Unelectable Bystander]

I mean this seriously as I don’t actually know much about him, but what is Beshear’s special appeal to republicans?

[Roll Roons]

I mean this seriously as I don’t actually know much about him, but what is Beshear’s special appeal to republicans?

I'm curious as well. He seems like an affable guy, in stark contrast to Bevin, but is a pretty standard Democrat otherwise.

What's crazy is that he has 39% approval among registered Republicans. That's really good for such a red state.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Incumbency in red states even if you're a D means a lot look at Laura Kelly and Sherrod Brown and Joe Manchin and Jon Tester they have won reelection and Manchin has a 60 percent Approvals

[NewYorkExpress]

Likely R if Biden or another D is the incumbent, Lean D if Trump or another R is the incumbent.

[President Johnson]

Likely R if Biden or another D is the incumbent, Lean D if Trump or another R is the incumbent.

Eh, Biden is going to be incumbent president in 2023 unless something happens, then it's Kamala.

Regardless, with 60% approval rating, Beshear has indeed a pretty good shot. Especially with a weak opponent.

[NewYorkExpress]

Likely R if Biden or another D is the incumbent, Lean D if Trump or another R is the incumbent.

Eh, Biden is going to be incumbent president in 2023 unless something happens, then it's Kamala.

Regardless, with 60% approval rating, Beshear has indeed a pretty good shot. Especially with a weak opponent.

I can easily see McConnell rigging an impeachment trial once Republicans have the Senate and House after 2022 to remove Harris and Biden and install whoever the Speaker of the House is.

[President Johnson]

Likely R if Biden or another D is the incumbent, Lean D if Trump or another R is the incumbent.

Eh, Biden is going to be incumbent president in 2023 unless something happens, then it's Kamala.

Regardless, with 60% approval rating, Beshear has indeed a pretty good shot. Especially with a weak opponent.

I can easily see McConnell rigging an impeachment trial once Republicans have the Senate and House after 2022 to remove Harris and Biden and install whoever the Speaker of the House is.

Lmao, he's not going to get 67 votes for conviction, maybe not even 50. There's no maneuver how you can rig that. I don't even think Mitch would waste any capital on this kind of stuff, as terrible as he is.

[Oryxslayer]

I mean this seriously as I don’t actually know much about him, but what is Beshear’s special appeal to republicans?

I'm curious as well. He seems like an affable guy, in stark contrast to Bevin, but is a pretty standard Democrat otherwise.

What's crazy is that he has 39% approval among registered Republicans. That's really good for such a red state.

The answer is probably the exact same as Baker or formerly Hogan. They are almost powerless to stop the big dominant-party proposals, and are instead just a 'checking force' against the crazies. So because they are ignorable, a their nonconfrontational friendly face is popular.

Which gives a unique contrast with JBE, who has never faced dual GOP supermajorities.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

New York Express thinks that CO is going R, so I won't listen to him i

[Unelectable Bystander]

I mean this seriously as I don’t actually know much about him, but what is Beshear’s special appeal to republicans?

I'm curious as well. He seems like an affable guy, in stark contrast to Bevin, but is a pretty standard Democrat otherwise.

What's crazy is that he has 39% approval among registered Republicans. That's really good for such a red state.

The answer is probably the exact same as Baker or formerly Hogan. They are almost powerless to stop the big dominant-party proposals, and are instead just a 'checking force' against the crazies. So because they are ignorable, a their nonconfrontational friendly face is popular.

Which gives a unique contrast with JBE, who has never faced dual GOP supermajorities.

Is JBE a standard liberal outside of abortion?

[EastwoodS]

Might have a good approval rating, probably still going to lose re-election

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Might have a good approval rating, probably still going to lose re-election

Sure do you realize D incumbency in red states Trump the R trends look at Sherrod Brown he has bucked the R trend of OH and Laura Kelly has a good Approvals in KS last poll in Clarity had her up 5 pts and Cheri Beasley can win because the internal poll only had her down 2 pts and she is gonna get a bump from the Breyer retirement, she is a judge, it's Jan 22 not October

DeSantis can lose too he is only up the same amount as Whitmer 45)41, you guys love to think we can't crack the red wall and Obama ran with Biden and did it in 2008/12, if Rs think they can crack the Blue Wall, we can crack the red wall too

[Schiff for Senate]

Lean D for now. I actually don't think Comer runs - he just became the lead Republican on House Oversight. Beshear won't get the landslide reelection that his dad did, just because the state's become more Republican. But it seems like he's pretty popular, and that's almost always the best predictor of a governor's reelection chances.

I agree losing a statewide race as a Republican in KY is mortifying but really, KY is one of the 5 states where you can run for Governor without any fear of losing your seat in Congress, since KY's governor elections are off-year (2023) - it would be a tight squeeze but I think after the primary Comer could focus on running for governor (he'd win reelection to KY01 anyway; it's a safe red seat) and he could fall back on his House seat if he doesn't make it. If I was Comer, I'd honestly run for Governor anyway. I'm assuming what you mean, then, is that Comer might consider his current position in the House superior to being governor, but honestly, I doubt most people who aren't in a top leadership position would say no to governor to stay on in their role. I mean, sure, he could advance up slowly, but it could take a while and there are no promises after what's happened to people like Cantor, Crowley and to a lesser extent, John Murtha in the 2000s. So I think he should run for governor right now (at least, once he ensures he's a lock for the primary, which I'm pretty sure he is but not fully sure since I'm not following that race), and if he loses, oh well, he still has his seat in the House safe and sound.

[Schiff for Senate]

I read in a article post-November 2020 that one of the prominent Democrats in the KY state legislature lost his re-election, maybe it was the Boyle county area? Can’t remember for sure, but his constituent came up to him and said “it’s not that we don’t like you or we don’t like the work you’re doing, it’s just that you’re a Democrat” I wish I could find that article but I was shocked when I saw it, I had to to dig for it though.  
Ky voter registration has gone from nearly 50-40, Democratic advantage(2017) to 44.14-46.65 Democratic advantage (December  2020).
Let’s also note that Bevin almost become the first Republican in Kentucky history to win a Republican governorship for the second time, and he was insanely unpopular. Also, David Cameron is pretty popular too, but you don’t necessarily see that same sentiment in person do you? and friends I can definitely tell you, there’s something wrong with that Beshear approval rating, it’s decent but not high enough where he should sleep comfortable with the idea of winning a clear re-election. I would describe his approval rating as “apathetically high” meaning I doubt it’ll translate into votes, as time goes on, Democrats are going to have to have more than just a good approval rating too; the numbers are just getting too challenging for them to overcome.

Yeah, sadly, this is what I've been expecting - that despite Beshear's decent approvals, it won't actually translate to victory at the end of the day. Looking at the converse, McConnell is extremely unpopular in KY, and yet he wins very comfortably. So approvals are trumped by partisanship, even in KY (Elliott County pretty much sums it up, though to be fair it did back Beshear by 20 points in 2019).

[Schiff for Senate]

What if Savannah Maddox gets the nomination?

This might be Beshear's best shot at victory, since I read an article where even a handful of (I think prominent) Republicans say she's an extremist.

[SnowLabrador]

I've said it before and I'll say it again: The only way Beshear wins is if he faces Bevin again, and even then it's 50-50 at best for him.

[Schiff for Senate]

I've said it before and I'll say it again: The only way Beshear wins is if he faces Bevin again, and even then it's 50-50 at best for him.

I honestly think this isn't much of an exaggeration. Though I do think it's possible, if pretty unlikely, that Beshear could win against a non-Bevin opponent. Also, I highly doubt Bevin would get renominated unless KY Republicans have rocks for brains and are somehow even stupider than we think.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I've said it before and I'll say it again: The only way Beshear wins is if he faces Bevin again, and even then it's 50-50 at best for him.

Incumbent D's don't lose like challengers look at Sherrod Brown and Laura Kelly isn't DOA since there isn't any KS polls we didn't get any either in 2020 they kept polling NC

[Real Texan Politics]

Hot take: He's running for Kentucky governor

Maybe that's his "day of reckoning"?
https://twitter.com/mschlapp/status/1494350695784407046?s=20&t=hD8IBKIZBo5Em...

[Sub Jero]

One name that can't be ignored is Mike Harmon, the state auditor.  He's got that Mike Pence-like lane for the socially conservative Republicans and also has ties to the old Tea Party movement.  He's also done a good job in the state auditor role and there's not much left for him to do in state government except run for the top job.

I think the strongest GOP candidate is either James Comer or Ryan Quarles.  Both have good ratings in the state, avoid the extremes that other GOP candidates can be tied in with, and can point to accomplishments as agriculture commissioners, which can boost their numbers in Kentucky's rural areas.

For Beshear to win he's going to need to get big margins from Louisville and Lexington and then repeat a lot of the map against Bevin.  Problem is, any candidate that doesn't have Matt Bevin's baggage is going to make that tough.  For example, I can't see Beshear winning the same number of votes in Northern Kentucky that he did in 2019.

And he’s officially running now
https://mobile.twitter.com/mikeharmonky/status/1512610724497043456?cxt=HHwWgMC90...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Beshear has a 60% Approvals and so does Manchin they're not losing Rs don't have a monopoly on Red states

Just like Laura Kelly in KS isn't DOA there isn't any as ny poll in KS that has her behind

[EastwoodS]

I find it very hard to see Democrats getting hyper inflated numbers out of the urban counties, with extreme turnout in Louisville and Lexington and with Republicans matching Bevins awful rural numbers- to some nobody guy like Mike Harmon.  2019 was the result of a unpopular and extremely controversial governor mixed in with the naturally bad environment for the GOP. and with all of this Beshear only won by thousands of votes. It is clear to see that the ceiling is a lot higher for the Republicans and a lot lower for Dems.