Kentucky 2023 gubernatorial election megathread

[GALeftist]

There are rumblings that McConnell could be retiring in the near future. If he does, Kentucky law requires that Governor Beshear pick from three names submitted by the KYGOP to replace him. One thing to keep an eye out for: it's very possible that Beshear selects Cameron if he's on the list, thereby giving him an easier path to reelection.

[Suburbia]

Daniel Cameron is being attacked now by the law and order right for an unearthed 2017 video of him supporting liberal-leaning bail reform, something that NJ, NY and IL has enacted.


https://twitter.com/gekaminsky/status/1653081510373736458

[henster]

Daniel Cameron is being attacked now by the law and order right for an unearthed 2017 video of him supporting liberal-leaning bail reform, something that NJ, NY and IL has enacted.


https://twitter.com/gekaminsky/status/1653081510373736458

So much worse to think Cameron holds more liberal beliefs on criminal justice but is playing tough in office to get votes and hurting the black community. Especially considering his conduct during the Breonna Taylor case, was that all for show?

I think Craft is even odds to beat Cameron right now, there was a poll that had him only leading by 6 points a couple of weeks ago. Beshear would be the heavy favorite vs Craft. But it'd be interesting to see Beshear flip the script on Cameron and call him 'weak on crime' if he's the nominee.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Daniel Cameron is being attacked now by the law and order right for an unearthed 2017 video of him supporting liberal-leaning bail reform, something that NJ, NY and IL has enacted.


https://twitter.com/gekaminsky/status/1653081510373736458

So much worse to think Cameron holds more liberal beliefs on criminal justice but is playing tough in office to get votes and hurting the black community. Especially considering his conduct during the Breonna Taylor case, was that all for show?

I think Craft is even odds to beat Cameron right now, there was a poll that had him only leading by 6 points a couple of weeks ago. Beshear would be the heavy favorite vs Craft. But it'd be interesting to see Beshear flip the script on Cameron and call him 'weak on crime' if he's the nominee.

The only sincere black republicans are either insane or religious nuts

[they don't love you like i love you]

Kentucky already rarely uses cash bail. It's one of the least using bail states along with Oregon.

[henster]

Kentucky already rarely uses cash bail. It's one of the least using bail states along with Oregon.

And few cities if any in KY have even considered defunding the police but voters will sure hear about it come November. Even the most benign issues will get blown up to stir up any kind of fear and anger. I just want to see Beshear and Dems finally turn this around on Repubs. "Daniel Cameron wants to eliminate cash bail and release violent criminals on our streets!"

[Alben Barkley]

Kentucky already rarely uses cash bail. It's one of the least using bail states along with Oregon.

And few cities if any in KY have even considered defunding the police but voters will sure hear about it come November. Even the most benign issues will get blown up to stir up any kind of fear and anger. I just want to see Beshear and Dems finally turn this around on Repubs. "Daniel Cameron wants to eliminate cash bail and release violent criminals on our streets!"

At this rate, Daniel Cameron might not make it to November. Don't be surprised if he loses the primary to Craft. Or actually this might turn out to be the perfect scenario: Trump endorses a weakened Cameron who barely wins the primary as a result, he in turn goes up against the very popular Andy Beshear and loses. I don't see Cameron sailing away with the nomination at this point, at any rate.

[Alben Barkley]

Kentucky already rarely uses cash bail. It's one of the least using bail states along with Oregon.

One of the things I'm most proud of my state for btw. Along with the fact that we haven't executed anyone in decades.

[Alben Barkley]

Daniel Cameron is being attacked now by the law and order right for an unearthed 2017 video of him supporting liberal-leaning bail reform, something that NJ, NY and IL has enacted.


https://twitter.com/gekaminsky/status/1653081510373736458

So much worse to think Cameron holds more liberal beliefs on criminal justice but is playing tough in office to get votes and hurting the black community. Especially considering his conduct during the Breonna Taylor case, was that all for show?

I think Craft is even odds to beat Cameron right now, there was a poll that had him only leading by 6 points a couple of weeks ago. Beshear would be the heavy favorite vs Craft. But it'd be interesting to see Beshear flip the script on Cameron and call him 'weak on crime' if he's the nominee.

Unfortunately I think Andy is too soft to really twist the knife on the crime issue the way he could... and would if I were advising him. After all, if he wasn't, if he was a real Bill Clinton type, he probably wouldn't have vetoed the transgender sports/youth transition bills where he was overridden anyway. That can only hurt him in the general election, and he did it anyway. I think he can still win but he's made things a little more difficult for himself.

[Suburbia]

Daniel Cameron is being attacked now by the law and order right for an unearthed 2017 video of him supporting liberal-leaning bail reform, something that NJ, NY and IL has enacted.

https://twitter.com/gekaminsky/status/1653081510373736458

So much worse to think Cameron holds more liberal beliefs on criminal justice but is playing tough in office to get votes and hurting the black community. Especially considering his conduct during the Breonna Taylor case, was that all for show?

I think Craft is even odds to beat Cameron right now, there was a poll that had him only leading by 6 points a couple of weeks ago. Beshear would be the heavy favorite vs Craft. But it'd be interesting to see Beshear flip the script on Cameron and call him 'weak on crime' if he's the nominee.

Yes, it was all for show. A lot of black men, even college educated BM have distrust of the CRJ system...the only types that don't care are Larry Elder types, etc.

Even slain Sayreville, NJ Republican councilwoman Eunice Dwumfour spoke about her hostility to police, some people felt she was killed because she spoke about policing in a suburb that is pro-police.

[henster]

Daniel Cameron is being attacked now by the law and order right for an unearthed 2017 video of him supporting liberal-leaning bail reform, something that NJ, NY and IL has enacted.


https://twitter.com/gekaminsky/status/1653081510373736458

So much worse to think Cameron holds more liberal beliefs on criminal justice but is playing tough in office to get votes and hurting the black community. Especially considering his conduct during the Breonna Taylor case, was that all for show?

I think Craft is even odds to beat Cameron right now, there was a poll that had him only leading by 6 points a couple of weeks ago. Beshear would be the heavy favorite vs Craft. But it'd be interesting to see Beshear flip the script on Cameron and call him 'weak on crime' if he's the nominee.

Unfortunately I think Andy is too soft to really twist the knife on the crime issue the way he could... and would if I were advising him. After all, if he wasn't, if he was a real Bill Clinton type, he probably wouldn't have vetoed the transgender sports/youth transition bills where he was overridden anyway. That can only hurt him in the general election, and he did it anyway. I think he can still win but he's made things a little more difficult for himself.

I don't know why some Dem pols want to die on this hill of transgender sports. Maybe they are more worried about backlash or blacklisting from the donor class. In most cases there are maybe a dozen or less actual transgender athletes trying to actually compete and I think there is a lot of nuance to be had on the issue. Beshear could've signed the bill and put forth a reasonable explanation without coming off as bigoted. It would not be as big as a betrayal as say banning trans healthcare.

[Galeel]

Democrats are better served putting forward a positive message for themselves instead of spending their time attacking random minorities because they make pundits feel uncomfortable.

[ReallySuper]

i just wanna say that the notion kentucky "rarely" uses cash bail is totally misleading. ky doesnt have commercial bail, but we have a "right" to bail and it is very prevalent for most criminal charges since there is a lot of judicial discretion. in 2016, almost 65,000 kentuckians charged with nonviolent offenses were in prison bc they couldnt afford bail (30% of all nonviolent offenders). they stayed an average of 109 days in jail, which is longer than most of them could possibly be sentenced to even if convicted. ky has one of the highest incarceration rates in the country (and therefore the world) and pretrial detention due to inability to pay bail means that jails are flooded with ppl who have not been convicted of any crime (73% of ky jails over capacity in 2018, ten jails at or over 200% capacity--louisville is actively considering building a new jail rn so they can find a reason to throw even more people in prison and throw even more of the budget at policing/jailing ppl). and the situation has definitely gotten worse in the last few years, though i havent found much more recent data. im not an expert on the bail situation in other states, but bail in ky is worse than almost every other nation on earth and definitely not something to be proud of.

anyway kelly craft is really funny and the idea that daniel cameron is a teddy bear soft on crime is one of her many laughable jokes that have made this campaign entertaining at least. glad the ky gop is continuing their strong tradition of deranged politicians in the vein of bevin that are utterly hilarious until they actually get into power and then all of a sudden its not so funny anymore.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We lose LA and net MS, NH, VA  Govs net 2

26D/24 Rs

[miles prower]

Is there expected to be a regional divide in this primary?

[ReallySuper]

Is there expected to be a regional divide in this primary?

i dont think any of the polls that have been conducted have shown it broken down by region in their crosstabs, unfortunately, but if i had to guess cameron will probably do better in urban/suburban parts of ky while agriculture commissioner ryan quarles does better in rural areas. coal baron kelly craft might have a good showing in eastern ky (which will probably be receptive to her strong culture war campaigning as well). alan keck will do best in the southeastern part of the state (hes mayor of somerset). patriot eric deters probably wont crack 10% anywhere except some random barely-populated county due to pure chance but hes from nky so might slightly overperform there. i have no idea what western ky will do; it would make sense if they went for quarles but given kelly crafts recent surge and unapologetic conservatism i think she could do well there too.

tbh tho my guess is there will probs be less of a regional divide than usual since the main contenders are either statewide elected officials (cameron, quarles) or kelly craft who has also never held a local/regional office and has flooded the airwaves statewide. the only exception to this is alan keck, but hes polling so low that he will probably only have a very strong showing in pulaski and surrounding counties.

then again i could be totally wrong. when it comes to ky politics its best to just always expect the unexpected

[SnowLabrador]

Craft's "momentum" reminds me of Kathy Barnette's in Pennsylvania last year. Cameron will comfortably win the primary.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The first polls are closing. Follow results here: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/05/16/us/elections/results-kentucky.html

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

LOL:

Andy Beshear*incumbent
132   +96.4%96.4%   
Geoff Young
3   +2.2%2.2   
Peppy Martin
2   +1.5%1.5

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Daniel Cameron
443   +36.8%36.8%   
Ryan Quarles
390   +32.4%32.4   
Kelly Craft
267   +22.2%22.2   
Eric Deters
38   +3.2%3.2   

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

Andy Beshear*incumbent
7,289   +96.4% 
Geoff Young
161   +2.1%   
Peppy Martin
114   +1.5%

I've seen enough. Congrats to Beshear on renomination. 

[Benjamin Frank]

Any live audio or video stream?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Daniel Cameron
9,299   +44.1%44.1%
Ryan Quarles
4,864   +23.1%23.1
Kelly Craft
4,085   +19.4%19.4
Eric Deters
1,108   +5.3%5.3

[SnowLabrador]

It may be only 7%, but I’m feeling good about my take.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

I know this is the governor thread but it is still good to see an election denier go down in flames in the secretary of state primary