Kentucky 2023 gubernatorial election megathread

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Of course you believe Rs have a monopoly on Red states but Rs don't believe D's have a monopoly on blue states lol our turnout except for 2010/14 have exceeded 125M votes and it was 82K same day voting in those yrs, everyone talks about VA with VBM but we won Cali recall VBM and NJ the blue States

We haven't seen a poll from KS but Laura Kelly has a 50% Approvals just like Manchin and Beshear

Just like Rs believe AZ is Lean R and every poll came out Mark Kelly up 50/46 like he won in 2020

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/politics1com/status/1520913426863865856?s=21&t=Is5lWMepc...

[JMT]

Not sure how credible this source is, but big news if it’s true. I think many thought Cameron would be McConnell’s successor, but perhaps a gubernatorial bid while an unpopular Democratic President is in office seemed too tempting to pass up (and besides, winning the Gubernatorial election doesn’t necessarily preclude Cameron from running to succeed McConnell in 2026, and it’s not even a given that McConnell is retiring; McConnell may still run for another term).

https://twitter.com/splitticket_/status/1524107405159591937?s=21&t=JozbWsp1Q...

[Tekken_Guy]

Not sure how credible this source is, but big news if it’s true. I think many thought Cameron would be McConnell’s successor, but perhaps a gubernatorial bid while an unpopular Democratic President is in office seemed too tempting to pass up (and besides, winning the Gubernatorial election doesn’t necessarily preclude Cameron from running to succeed McConnell in 2026, and it’s not even a given that McConnell is retiring; McConnell may still run for another term).

https://twitter.com/splitticket_/status/1524107405159591937?s=21&t=JozbWsp1Q...

My takeaway is that McConnell has decided to run for re-election in 2026.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Not sure how credible this source is, but big news if it’s true. I think many thought Cameron would be McConnell’s successor, but perhaps a gubernatorial bid while an unpopular Democratic President is in office seemed too tempting to pass up (and besides, winning the Gubernatorial election doesn’t necessarily preclude Cameron from running to succeed McConnell in 2026, and it’s not even a given that McConnell is retiring; McConnell may still run for another term).

https://twitter.com/splitticket_/status/1524107405159591937?s=21&t=JozbWsp1Q...

My takeaway is that McConnell has decided to run for re-election in 2026.

McConnell is DOA in his primary in 2026. He's extremely unpopular even in his state, there's just never been a credible primary challenger to him, which there WILL be in 2026.

[2016]

The Louisville Courier-Journal has confirmed that AG Daniel Cameron has filled Paperwork to run for Governor in 2023 challenging Governor Andy Beshear.
https://twitter.com/joesonka/status/1524426538267168773

Beshear is a dead man walking and he knows it!

[JMT]

Here’s Cameron’s official announcement. I imagine he’s the frontrunner at this point (that could change, of course. There’s two other statewide officials running, and the field will probably grow even more).

https://twitter.com/danielcameronag/status/1524453946672230402?s=21&t=Ub4aBi...

[JMT]

Also, Michael Adams seemed to take himself out of the running for Governor, saying that he is considering running for re-election or to succeed Cameron as Attorney General.

https://twitter.com/adams4secstate/status/1524430326306684930?s=21&t=Ub4aBim...

[LAB-LIB]

I guess this means McConnell has decided to run for reelection.

[Alben Barkley]

I'm honestly surprised Cameron is running. He could have waited until the slam dunk McConnell seat opened in 2026. This is a huge risk (I think he has at least a 40% chance of losing, and that's assuming he even wins the primary; not odds I'd wanna take over a 100% shot at a likely lifetime Senate seat) and seems he already has cause to regret it. Blunder? He's going up against one of the most popular governors in the country, after all, in a state where said governor WAY overperforms relative to its partisan lean. And who knows what the environment will be like in an off-year like 2023? He better be prepared for a very close, very nasty race, and these opening shots are just the beginning of that. If I were him I sure as hell would not have risked it, because IF he loses, he's pretty much done.

And I still strongly doubt McConnell runs for re-election but I guess we've seen stranger things. The current generation of old fossils seems especially reluctant to just ride off into the sunset, even in their late 80s and beyond. See also: Feinstein, Grassley. (And earlier the likes of Byrd and Thurmond.) Though they weren't in the kind of leadership position McConnell is in. Would be something to see a 90 year old McConnell leading the Republican Party in Congress.

Although: If Cameron does win, that will mark the second time in a row a KY Attorney General beat the governor of the opposing party he famously sparred with throughout his term. Which would be kinda interesting. Sure as hell hope it doesn't happen though!

[Alben Barkley]

Not sure how credible this source is, but big news if it’s true. I think many thought Cameron would be McConnell’s successor, but perhaps a gubernatorial bid while an unpopular Democratic President is in office seemed too tempting to pass up (and besides, winning the Gubernatorial election doesn’t necessarily preclude Cameron from running to succeed McConnell in 2026, and it’s not even a given that McConnell is retiring; McConnell may still run for another term).

https://twitter.com/splitticket_/status/1524107405159591937?s=21&t=JozbWsp1Q...

My takeaway is that McConnell has decided to run for re-election in 2026.

McConnell is DOA in his primary in 2026. He's extremely unpopular even in his state, there's just never been a credible primary challenger to him, which there WILL be in 2026.

LOL

Tell me you know absolutely nothing about Kentucky politics without telling me you know absolutely nothing about Kentucky politics.

There has never been a "credible primary challenger" to McConnell for a reason. Any such person would be destroyed by the McConnell machine before they had a chance to get off the ground. His unpopularity in the state is totally irrelevant. Anyone who still believes otherwise after 2014 or so is not paying attention.

[NewYorkExpress]

Not sure how credible this source is, but big news if it’s true. I think many thought Cameron would be McConnell’s successor, but perhaps a gubernatorial bid while an unpopular Democratic President is in office seemed too tempting to pass up (and besides, winning the Gubernatorial election doesn’t necessarily preclude Cameron from running to succeed McConnell in 2026, and it’s not even a given that McConnell is retiring; McConnell may still run for another term).

https://twitter.com/splitticket_/status/1524107405159591937?s=21&t=JozbWsp1Q...

My takeaway is that McConnell has decided to run for re-election in 2026.

McConnell is DOA in his primary in 2026. He's extremely unpopular even in his state, there's just never been a credible primary challenger to him, which there WILL be in 2026.

LOL

Tell me you know absolutely nothing about Kentucky politics without telling me you know absolutely nothing about Kentucky politics.

There has never been a "credible primary challenger" to McConnell for a reason. Any such person would be destroyed by the McConnell machine before they had a chance to get off the ground. His unpopularity in the state is totally irrelevant. Anyone who still believes otherwise after 2014 or so is not paying attention.

I could easily see Matt Bevin attempting a primary challenge against McConnell again. I'm sure there's still bad blood there from Bevin's 2014 attempt.

[Alben Barkley]

Not sure how credible this source is, but big news if it’s true. I think many thought Cameron would be McConnell’s successor, but perhaps a gubernatorial bid while an unpopular Democratic President is in office seemed too tempting to pass up (and besides, winning the Gubernatorial election doesn’t necessarily preclude Cameron from running to succeed McConnell in 2026, and it’s not even a given that McConnell is retiring; McConnell may still run for another term).

https://twitter.com/splitticket_/status/1524107405159591937?s=21&t=JozbWsp1Q...

My takeaway is that McConnell has decided to run for re-election in 2026.

McConnell is DOA in his primary in 2026. He's extremely unpopular even in his state, there's just never been a credible primary challenger to him, which there WILL be in 2026.

LOL

Tell me you know absolutely nothing about Kentucky politics without telling me you know absolutely nothing about Kentucky politics.

There has never been a "credible primary challenger" to McConnell for a reason. Any such person would be destroyed by the McConnell machine before they had a chance to get off the ground. His unpopularity in the state is totally irrelevant. Anyone who still believes otherwise after 2014 or so is not paying attention.

I could easily see Matt Bevin attempting a primary challenge against McConnell again. I'm sure there's still bad blood there from Bevin's 2014 attempt.

He would be crushed.

Bevin is maybe the least popular politician in this state, of either party. I am literally including Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton in this calculation. Even if you included Joseph Stalin and Adolf Hitler in the mix, it might well be a close contest against Bevin!

There is a reason I joined this site in the first place way back in 2019, and it was explicitly to ridicule certain "STaTe PaRtiSAN LEaN iS ALl ThAt MaTTerRS!!!" posters who insisted Bevin was a lock over Beshear.

No one outside the state can fully appreciate how extremely loathed Bevin was and is here. The only reason he even came close in 2019 is because KY has become so red. He would have been crushed by double digits just a cycle before. Might well have lost every county in the state just TWO cycles before.

Fact of the matter is Matt Bevin is a carpetbagger (-1000), a smug elitist (-1000), a phony (-1000), an insufferable hypocrite (-1000), and NOW has the reputation of a guy who let hundreds of violent offenders go free on the way out the door, some of whom have offended again (-1000).

We are talking about a man who literally wore an entire suit with Donald Trump's face plastered all over it in public appearances and who appeared at a rally with Donald Trump in the largest basketball arena in the country the night before the election in which Trump said that if Bevin lost if would be the biggest humiliation of all-time. And he STILL lost!

In a state which twice voted double digits for Trump.

If Bevin was running against Beshear in a rematch, I would mark this race Safe D. I am not kidding. 100% Safe D. I don't care what the national environment is, how strongly R Kentucky's partisan lean now is, etc. Beshear has had four years in KY and what has he done? Been one of the few governors in the nation to consistently score an approval rating above 60%. Meanwhile Bevin was the least popular governor in the nation throughout almost his entire term.

If Bevin tries to primary McConnell he will be lucky to get 2% of the vote. No matter how much Kentuckians might say they hate McConnell, they begrudgingly respect him for the most part; NO ONE respects Bevin. At all. He is a laughing stock. He is literally the reason I am on this site though. I signed up solely to dunk on him and his Northern red avatar doomer fanboys who knew nothing about KY politics, so I guess I owe that to him? Sort of? Might have been better off never joining Atlas though so maybe even that is a curse I can blame on Bevin...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Partisan trends don't apply to Gov and S as they do to Prez especially in off yr elections we won OH in 2018 and WVA and AZ, that's why NC and OH will be closer than expected this yr because it's a Midterm not a Prez that's why H flips especially for D's in a Midterm not Prez races

Beshear is Fav

[LDP Everywhere]

I think McConnell retires in 2026 and Bevin wins the nomination to succeed him. Meanwhile, former Governor Beshear wins the Dem primary and we get a Beshear vs Bevin rematch, which Bevin wins easily.

[Frodo]

At the rate Kentucky is turning more heavily Republican, at some point whoever wins the GOP primary will win the election:

Trump endorses Cameron's bid for governor in Kentucky

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Beshear has a 60% Approvals he will win reelection

[wesmoorenerd]

At the rate Kentucky is turning more heavily Republican, at some point whoever wins the GOP primary will win the election:

Trump endorses Cameron's bid for governor in Kentucky

It's not like the state was any less Republican in 2019. Beshear could well lose, but it would probably be the national environment that does him in rather than the trend of the state.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As I said before Rs don't have a Monopoly on red states Beshear can still win we haven't seen one poll don't forget everyone says Vance was gonna easily beat Ryan and Ryan is tied in Appalachia

[Politician]

Seems the same people who think Beshear is DOA in 2023 were the same people who believed KY-GOV 2019 was Safe R.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We need to see a poll first but they keep polling Latino states FL, TX, NV, CO and then they give us GA

They won't poll WI that's the only state they haven't POLLED

[Frodo]

At the rate Kentucky is turning more heavily Republican, at some point whoever wins the GOP primary will win the election:

Trump endorses Cameron's bid for governor in Kentucky

It's not like the state was any less Republican in 2019. Beshear could well lose, but it would probably be the national environment that does him in rather than the trend of the state.

There are more people who are registering (or re-registering) as Republicans than Democrats (they are roughly at parity now), and we are about to see an even bigger Republican supermajority in the legislature by this time next year as a result of redistricting and generational turnover.  I don't have the partisan numbers on local elected officials in the state, but I can't imagine it being much better for Democrats.  I am not saying Kentucky is like Tennessee now, but it will be as this decade progresses.    

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

At the rate Kentucky is turning more heavily Republican, at some point whoever wins the GOP primary will win the election:

Trump endorses Cameron's bid for governor in Kentucky

It's not like the state was any less Republican in 2019. Beshear could well lose, but it would probably be the national environment that does him in rather than the trend of the state.

There are more people who are registering (or re-registering) as Republicans than Democrats (they are roughly at parity now), and we are about to see an even bigger Republican supermajority in the legislature by this time next year as a result of redistricting.    

So, Beshear won over Rs and has a 55% approval rating we won't know until there is a poll a GE poll

[Bandit3 the Worker]

There are more people who are registering (or re-registering) as Republicans than Democrats (they are roughly at parity now), and we are about to see an even bigger Republican supermajority in the legislature by this time next year as a result of redistricting.

I bet the Democrats are sorry now they didn't come out against the COVID "new normal" when they had the chance.

They deserve to lose every election from tonight until the end of time.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There are more people who are registering (or re-registering) as Republicans than Democrats (they are roughly at parity now), and we are about to see an even bigger Republican supermajority in the legislature by this time next year as a result of redistricting.

I bet the Democrats are sorry now they didn't come out against the COVID "new normal" when they had the chance.

They deserve to lose every election from tonight until the end of time.

Lol D's aren't gonna be wiped out in 22724 and even if we lose KY we still have the 303 blue wall

D's were bound to be headed for a tough midterm since Biden didn't get rid of Covid like he said he was gonna do and the War in Ukraine with gas prices, it has nothing to do with Turnout in 2020