2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[GP270watch]

Democratic turnout in Florida now at 39.2% of registered Democrats.  Considering there's 12 days to go I think that's a pretty good number.

What was the turn out % of democrats in 2016?

 74.4% of the state’s 4.908m Democrats turned out to vote. (estimated 3,651,552)
 81.2% of the state’s 4.577m registered Republicans cast ballots. (estimated 3,716,524)
 63.3% of the state’s 3.132m No Party Affiliates (NPAs) voted (estimated 1,976,859)
 70.2% of the 347k Third Party registrants turned out. (estimated 242,900)

In Florida 2016 Clinton received 4,504,975 votes vs. Trump - 4,617,886

https://electionsmith.wordpress.com/2017/01/17/exclusive-first-cut-at-2016-turnout-rates-in-florida-by-party-and-raceethnicity/

 If we apply 2016 Turnout to current 2020 registered voters by party this would give Republicans a bigger advantage because their turnout was higher('16) and they also closed registration gap significantly('20).

 5,303,254 Democrat x 2016 turnout = 3,945,620
 5,169,012 Republican x 2016           = 4,197,237
 3,753,286 NPA x 2016                     = 2,375,830

 

[Tintrlvr]

https://twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1319436214039158786

I feel like it's not that bad.  GOP netted like 38k today?  And that doesn't include Miami Dade?  So lets say it's in the lower 30's.  At this rate they still need big turnout on Election Day. 

Plus souls to the polls Sunday could help Dems?

I agree weekends are generally better for the Dems in early voting, especially in the South. We'll see what happens this weekend. Historically Dems have tended to do better with later-received mail ballots as well, although with how upended things are, that may not be the case this time around.

[walleye26]

https://mobile.twitter.com/HarrisVotes/status/1319442870458351616
Harris County had 76,771 people vote today for a total of 951,000 voters. That’s 71% of its total vote in 2016.

[Sir Tiki]

I got a text message saying that my ballot has been received and will be counted! I take that to mean that it's been accepted, so yay!

[GP270watch]

I agree weekends are generally better for the Dems in early voting, especially in the South. We'll see what happens this weekend. Historically Dems have tended to do better with later-received mail ballots as well, although with how upended things are, that may not be the case this time around.

  Democrats always did better in all early voting days but the biggest number spikes came in the afternoon and on weekends but this 2020 cycle has flipped everything around. If we see no Sunday bump especially in Southeast Florida that would be concerning.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Cameron posts 3k, officially cresting the period 2016 EV record

Hidalgo posts 7k, and I am 99% sure that pushes them past their EV record, but can’t find a definitive source.

[It’s so Joever]

Let’s hope that the weekend bump culminates, but the GOP is currently over performing in Florida. Let’s not ignore that.

I for one, am saddened and unsurprised by the re-election of idiocrat, Donald J Trump.
I won’t comment on here anymore since it’s clear the Atlas bubble effect is really strong and nothing will change your mind.
I guess watching the complete shock of everyone here when the f**ker gets re-elected will be a bit of entertainment in the otherwise horrible night that is coming.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Let’s hope that the weekend bump culminates, but the GOP is currently over performing in Florida. Let’s not ignore that.

I for one, am saddened and unsurprised by the re-election of idiocrat, Donald J Trump.
I won’t comment on here anymore since it’s clear the Atlas bubble effect is really strong and nothing will change your mind.
I guess watching the complete shock of everyone here when the f**ker gets re-elected will be a bit of entertainment in the otherwise horrible night that is coming.

Bye, Felicia

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Travis closes the day at 29k (including mail), with 370k total. Only 99k until they beat 2016 total turnout and 116k to beat 2018 turnout. I’d be shocked if they didn’t break that by next Friday.

For reference, O’Roruke netted 240k out of Travis in 2018. My benchmark for a Biden win in Texas is him netting about 300k out of Travis.

[Sbane]

Let’s hope that the weekend bump culminates, but the GOP is currently over performing in Florida. Let’s not ignore that.

I for one, am saddened and unsurprised by the re-election of idiocrat, Donald J Trump.
I won’t comment on here anymore since it’s clear the Atlas bubble effect is really strong and nothing will change your mind.
I guess watching the complete shock of everyone here when the f**ker gets re-elected will be a bit of entertainment in the otherwise horrible night that is coming.

Democrats have some clear problems in Miami-Dade. Miami-Dade makes up roughly 10% of Florida voters and about 0.7% of US voters.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Let’s hope that the weekend bump culminates, but the GOP is currently over performing in Florida. Let’s not ignore that.

I for one, am saddened and unsurprised by the re-election of idiocrat, Donald J Trump.
I won’t comment on here anymore since it’s clear the Atlas bubble effect is really strong and nothing will change your mind.
I guess watching the complete shock of everyone here when the f**ker gets re-elected will be a bit of entertainment in the otherwise horrible night that is coming.

And what if you're wrong?

[Non Swing Voter]

Let’s hope that the weekend bump culminates, but the GOP is currently over performing in Florida. Let’s not ignore that.

I for one, am saddened and unsurprised by the re-election of idiocrat, Donald J Trump.
I won’t comment on here anymore since it’s clear the Atlas bubble effect is really strong and nothing will change your mind.
I guess watching the complete shock of everyone here when the f**ker gets re-elected will be a bit of entertainment in the otherwise horrible night that is coming.

Stop, just stop.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Philadelphia is already past 50% of 2016.

[compucomp]

Let’s hope that the weekend bump culminates, but the GOP is currently over performing in Florida. Let’s not ignore that.

I for one, am saddened and unsurprised by the re-election of idiocrat, Donald J Trump.
I won’t comment on here anymore since it’s clear the Atlas bubble effect is really strong and nothing will change your mind.
I guess watching the complete shock of everyone here when the f**ker gets re-elected will be a bit of entertainment in the otherwise horrible night that is coming.

Did you forget that Biden still has a ~50% (FiveThirtyEight says 56%) chance to win even conditional on losing Florida?

This kind of hand wringing is only justified if bad numbers were coming out of PA, MI, or WI, which truly are essential for Biden.

[n1240]

Philadelphia is already past 50% of 2016.

220335/709618=.31

[Non Swing Voter]

https://6abc.com/voter-rejection-rate-making-sure-ballot-counts-pennsylvania-voters-voting-in/7247769/

this scares me a bit.

[Gass3268]

There is a ward in Madison that is almost at 120% of 2016 turnout.

https://twitter.com/jjoyce/status/1319427425311272961?s=20

[GP270watch]

https://6abc.com/voter-rejection-rate-making-sure-ballot-counts-pennsylvania-voters-voting-in/7247769/

this scares me a bit.

 If Trump is as close as 2016 it will be a factor, we have to hope that the switch to mail ballots increased turnout as well. I always thought the USPS shenanigans were a Bannon-type strategy to kneecap Democratic enthusiasm which was coming anyways after observing 2018.

[Non Swing Voter]

There is a ward in Madison that is almost at 120% of 2016 turnout.

https://twitter.com/jjoyce/status/1319427425311272961?s=20

Is Madison just growing in population in parts, like some big apartment building added to that ward or something?  That seems like a ridiculously big jump in turnout given that there are still 12 days left.

[Lief 🗽]

Obama is holding a rally in Miami this weekend. We'll see if that plus souls to the polls on Sunday is enough to close the gap, but otherwise the Biden campaign needs to start thinking about redirecting resources to winnable states.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Obama is holding a rally in Miami this weekend. We'll see if that plus souls to the polls on Sunday is enough to close the gap, but otherwise the Biden campaign needs to start thinking about redirecting resources to winnable states.

This is dumb. They've got plenty of resources to compete in all the close states.

[Dr. Arch]

There is a ward in Madison that is almost at 120% of 2016 turnout.

https://twitter.com/jjoyce/status/1319427425311272961?s=20

Is Madison just growing in population in parts, like some big apartment building added to that ward or something?  That seems like a ridiculously big jump in turnout given that there are still 12 days left.

This city's population growth is off the charts. I've been here for close to a decade, and I've seen it boom.

[Gass3268]

There is a ward in Madison that is almost at 120% of 2016 turnout.

https://twitter.com/jjoyce/status/1319427425311272961?s=20

Is Madison just growing in population in parts, like some big apartment building added to that ward or something?  That seems like a ridiculously big jump in turnout given that there are still 12 days left.

A lot of the growth is at the edges of the city, particularly the west side.

[Non Swing Voter]

There is a ward in Madison that is almost at 120% of 2016 turnout.

https://twitter.com/jjoyce/status/1319427425311272961?s=20

Is Madison just growing in population in parts, like some big apartment building added to that ward or something?  That seems like a ridiculously big jump in turnout given that there are still 12 days left.

This city's population growth is off the charts. I've been here for close to a decade, and I've seen it boom.

So that ward 107, looks like it's in District 1?  Do you know anything about the demographics there?  Like does it tell us that African Americans or College Students, etc. are engaged?

[Dr. Arch]

There is a ward in Madison that is almost at 120% of 2016 turnout.

https://twitter.com/jjoyce/status/1319427425311272961?s=20

Is Madison just growing in population in parts, like some big apartment building added to that ward or something?  That seems like a ridiculously big jump in turnout given that there are still 12 days left.

This city's population growth is off the charts. I've been here for close to a decade, and I've seen it boom.

So that ward 107, looks like it's in District 1?  Do you know anything about the demographics there?  Like does it tell us that African Americans or College Students, etc. are engaged?

Definitely not many college students in that ward. It's a mix of African Americans, Latino, and WWC folks. The further south, the more AA and Latino wards you'll find.