2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[Non Swing Voter]

There is a ward in Madison that is almost at 120% of 2016 turnout.

https://twitter.com/jjoyce/status/1319427425311272961?s=20

Is Madison just growing in population in parts, like some big apartment building added to that ward or something?  That seems like a ridiculously big jump in turnout given that there are still 12 days left.

This city's population growth is off the charts. I've been here for close to a decade, and I've seen it boom.

So that ward 107, looks like it's in District 1?  Do you know anything about the demographics there?  Like does it tell us that African Americans or College Students, etc. are engaged?

Definitely not many college students in that ward. It's a mix of African Americans, Latino, and WWC folks. The further south, the more AA and Latino wards you'll find.

Hmm, so maybe promising for minority turnout versus 2016.

[Crucial Waukesha]

Ward 107 is a lot of new apartments and houses.  Many young Epic workers there.  So white liberals in their 20s.   There is also a large senior housing complex there so I’m guessing almost all of them absentee voted

[indietraveler]

With some of the delays in reporting will the vote count be at 60M by Monday morning?

[DINGO Joe]

With some of the delays in reporting will the vote count be at 60M by Monday morning?

Yeah, since many states will have Saturday voting this week.

[EJ24]

The bedwetters and doomers have almost completely taken over this thread.

[Non Swing Voter]

With some of the delays in reporting will the vote count be at 60M by Monday morning?

Definitely.

Tomorrow will also be a big day too.  Lots of states are in peak voting mode and Minnesota gives its update for the week on Friday.  Wouldn't be surprised if we are well over 55 million tomorrow.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

https://twitter.com/larry_irving/status/1319493058833141761?s=20
Of course, Cornyn may be bluffing and setting dramatic expectations for when Trump & Cornyn eventually win by over 5% after fooling everyone for months about Texas actually flipping to.....


Oh? Forumlurker said he's not gonna comment on this thread anymore? Well in that case...


I'm prepared to eat all-you-can-eat internet crow after November 3. But right now, I don't see anything in Texas outside of a state within 1-2% for either candidate. If anything, the early vote is making me more confident than ever in Biden's chances here. Though I'm more interested in Hegar, State House Dems & Congressional Dems chances at this point.

I still believe! And there's nothing any doomer can do to stop me from having the audacity of hope!

[Non Swing Voter]

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html

nearly 50 million!

[Bootes Void]

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html

nearly 50 million!

60 million in a few days maybe two days

[DaleCooper]

https://twitter.com/larry_irving/status/1319493058833141761?s=20
Of course, Cornyn may be bluffing and setting dramatic expectations for when Trump & Cornyn eventually win by over 5% after fooling everyone for months about Texas actually flipping to.....


Oh? Forumlurker said he's not gonna comment on this thread anymore? Well in that case...


I'm prepared to eat all-you-can-eat internet crow after November 3. But right now, I don't see anything in Texas outside of a state within 1-2% for either candidate. If anything, the early vote is making me more confident than ever in Biden's chances here. Though I'm more interested in Hegar, State House Dems & Congressional Dems chances at this point.

I still believe! And there's nothing any doomer can do to stop me from having the audacity of hope!

Is it true that the State House is more likely to flip than the state as a whole on the presidential level?

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

https://twitter.com/larry_irving/status/1319493058833141761?s=20
Of course, Cornyn may be bluffing and setting dramatic expectations for when Trump & Cornyn eventually win by over 5% after fooling everyone for months about Texas actually flipping to.....


Oh? Forumlurker said he's not gonna comment on this thread anymore? Well in that case...


I'm prepared to eat all-you-can-eat internet crow after November 3. But right now, I don't see anything in Texas outside of a state within 1-2% for either candidate. If anything, the early vote is making me more confident than ever in Biden's chances here. Though I'm more interested in Hegar, State House Dems & Congressional Dems chances at this point.

I still believe! And there's nothing any doomer can do to stop me from having the audacity of hope!

Is it true that the State House is more likely to flip than the state as a whole on the presidential level?

I am definitely NOT a Texas expert... But given how good the district-level polling is looking for Dems in Texas, combined with the Titanium Tossup polling we are getting statewide, it seems like the GOP dummymader in the Texas House may be more likely to fall thanks to the suburbs.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

https://twitter.com/larry_irving/status/1319493058833141761?s=20
Of course, Cornyn may be bluffing and setting dramatic expectations for when Trump & Cornyn eventually win by over 5% after fooling everyone for months about Texas actually flipping to.....


Oh? Forumlurker said he's not gonna comment on this thread anymore? Well in that case...


I'm prepared to eat all-you-can-eat internet crow after November 3. But right now, I don't see anything in Texas outside of a state within 1-2% for either candidate. If anything, the early vote is making me more confident than ever in Biden's chances here. Though I'm more interested in Hegar, State House Dems & Congressional Dems chances at this point.

I still believe! And there's nothing any doomer can do to stop me from having the audacity of hope!

Is it true that the State House is more likely to flip than the state as a whole on the presidential level?

I am definitely NOT a Texas expert... But given how good the district-level polling is looking for Dems in Texas, combined with the Titanium Tossup polling we are getting statewide, it seems like the GOP dummymader in the Texas House may be more likely to fall thanks to the suburbs.

If a Biden loss in Texas is more attributable to low turnout in South Texas, I can see the State House flipping (Even with suburban ticket-splitting) given most of those South Texas House seats are already Democrat

[ON Progressive]

I feel like citing raw # of lead in Florida rather than by % to portray the dynamics of the race is misguided.
Just look at the Siena/NYT poll.

https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/flpa-0930-crosstabs/16c21b7ab34ed4d1/full.pdf

Vote intention (D/R/I)

Mail (42/24/38)
Early voting in person (34/23/25)
Voting on election day (18/48/35)

In other words, Democrats are supposed to have a lead in both mail and early voting in person. The fact that Republicans are outpacing in early voting so far might mean that either greater % of Republicans than estimated are demonizing mail voting, or that Democrats are over-worried about covid and sticking to mail voting.*

The latter seems unlikely to me, at least enough to the point that it skews the picture of the race. Not a doomer, but I'm not sure that Democrats are doing as well as people are suggesting.

Edited*

There are several problems here:
1) the sample sizes of these crosstabs are gonna be very small in a poll of 700-something people
2) people often lie or change their mind about voting method! there’s no reason not to believe that a significant number of Rs switched from e-day to in-person early voting!

[Gass3268]

I feel like citing raw # of lead in Florida rather than by % to portray the dynamics of the race is misguided.
Just look at the Siena/NYT poll.

https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/flpa-0930-crosstabs/16c21b7ab34ed4d1/full.pdf

Vote intention (D/R/I)

Mail (42/24/38)
Early voting in person (34/23/25)
Voting on election day (18/48/35)

In other words, Democrats are supposed to have a lead in both mail and early voting in person. The fact that Republicans are outpacing in early voting so far might mean that either greater % of Republicans than estimated are demonizing mail voting, or that Democrats are over-worried about covid and sticking to mail voting.*

The latter seems unlikely to me, at least enough to the point that it skews the picture of the race. Not a doomer, but I'm not sure that Democrats are doing as well as people are suggesting.

Edited*

There are several problems here:
1) the sample sizes of these crosstabs are gonna be very small in a poll of 700-something people
2) people often lie or change their mind about voting method! there’s no reason not to believe that a significant number of Rs switched from e-day to in-person early voting!

We are also ignoring the NPAs.

[Stockdale for Veep]

Florida Seniors by the thousands will be Trump/Biden voters, I'm sure most of them are registered R.

But, you have to triage it Joe.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

is Jon Ralston still pushing his Nevada horserace shtick

Just checked, and yeah. Hella f#cking annoying.

[Hammy]

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html

nearly 50 million!

Am I reading that right, Texas has already cast 2/3 the number of total votes that it cast in 2016?

[Dr. Arch]

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html

nearly 50 million!

Am I reading that right, Texas has already cast 2/3 the number of total votes that it cast in 2016?

Yep!

[Rep Jessica]

FLORIDA


4,705,612 votes cast (mail + in-person EV)

Democratic: 2,085,559 (44.3%)
Republican: 1,659,686 (35.3%)
NPA/Other: 960,367 (20.2%)

Dem lead decreases to 425,873

~537,167 ballots were processed today

[Rep Jessica]

ET Breaking News
@breaking_et
·
1h
BREAKING

Texas will report around 6.3-6.4 Million votes cast at 8 am.

Coming very close to the 8.9 Million total cast in the 2016 General Election.

With still over a week of Early Voting left.

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1319509468191703042

[Non Swing Voter]

FLORIDA


4,705,612 votes cast (mail + in-person EV)

Democratic: 2,085,559 (44.3%)
Republican: 1,659,686 (35.3%)
NPA/Other: 960,367 (20.2%)

Dem lead decreases to 425,873

~537,167 ballots were processed today

I mean, yeah it's decreasing but not by that much each day.  Wasn't the highest Democratic lead like 470k? 

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/sfh2019/status/1319517377005060096


https://twitter.com/edwardderuiter/status/1319513950027825153

[Adam Griffin]

Do we have any idea approximately how many mail ballots are outstanding in Texas at the moment?

I really wanted to do a comparison between TX & GA in terms of [votes cast + outstanding mail ballots] as a percentage of 2016 total vote.

In GA, that number is 77% (56% actual EV + 21% unreturned mail ballots). Texas would need to have around 1.1m unreturned mail ballots to match that percentage in combination with its current EV.

[wbrocks67]

FLORIDA


4,705,612 votes cast (mail + in-person EV)

Democratic: 2,085,559 (44.3%)
Republican: 1,659,686 (35.3%)
NPA/Other: 960,367 (20.2%)

Dem lead decreases to 425,873

~537,167 ballots were processed today

I mean, yeah it's decreasing but not by that much each day.  Wasn't the highest Democratic lead like 470k? 

Exactly, I don't get the thinking of how "The GOP is surging!" when yes, they are outvoting in EV, but Dems are still seeing a massive lead-in in mail ins, and with nearly 5M votes in right now, Dems are still up +426K which is massive.

We've talked about how Dems really just need to break even with the GOP, so the GOP really has a long way to go to catch up 426K behind.