2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[TopShelfGoal]

considering that GOP will win  the ED very big, 426K is not enough for dems. 

FL is not like PA where most of the R vote is gonna come on Election Day. GOP is only running a few points behind their registration in FL.

Total Registration

D: 37%
R: 35.69%

EV votes by party reg:

D: 39.8
R: 32.6

So it is not some vast difference and there is going to be less ED vote for GOP than folks think.

[Brittain33]

Can someone rational give a quick tl; dr on the current situation in Florida? Too many posts with too many pov's and too many tears

Both sides are turning out in high numbers for their respective preferred methods, it’s too early to estimate totals, and yet people are making unfounded leaps from partial numbers to predict victory or doom and gloom.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Could TX and MT surpass 2016 total turnout just from early/mail votes?

I think it's a given that all the major growing urban counties in Texas will surpass 100% of 2016 final vote tallies before next Friday. Travis County will be flirting with hitting 400k today alone (total in 2016 was 469k and 2018 was 484k). Harris will likely surpass 1.3 million late next week, along with Dallas and Bexar, to say nothing of the major suburban counties like Williamson, Denton, and Collin, who will probably pass it this weekend.

Yep, the turnout numbers in the metro areas are insane, which is a good sign that Biden is at least highly competative in the state. People tend to forget how bad TX turnout has been historically. As for MT, I expect turnout to be a lot higher this time purely because of how many resources are being invested in the state this cycle, and how many people voted there in 2018. The MT Democratic Party has gotta be one of the best as turning out voters when needed.

[wbrocks67]

considering that GOP will win  the ED very big, 426K is not enough for dems. 

FL is not like PA where most of the R vote is gonna come on Election Day. GOP is only running a few points behind their registration in FL.

Total Registration

D: 37%
R: 35.69%

EV votes by party reg:

D: 39.8
R: 32.6

So it is not some vast difference and there is going to be less ED vote for GOP than folks think.

Yep. It's just as possible that Reps are doing better with Early Vote in Person is b/c many of their Election Day voters are voting early now.

[wbrocks67]

The California #s are truly insane.

Partisanship of first 5 million ballots returned
2016: Dem 46, Rep 32, Other 22 (Dem +14)
2018: Dem 45, Rep 31, Other 24 (Dem +14)
2020: Dem 56, Rep 21, Other 23 (Dem +35)

https://capitolweekly.net/ca120-a-historic-flood-of-over-5-million-mail-in-ballots/#disqus_thread

Also of note in places like CA-25, for instance: 30% of Dems have returned ballots already. Only 19% of Reps have.

https://tableau.the-pdi.com/t/CampaignTools/views/2020GeneralBaseAVTrackerforVIZBOT/2020GeneralElectionTrackerVIZBOT?Geography%20Selection=Congressional%20District&Geography%20Selection%20Filter=CD%2025%20-%2025TH%20CONGRESSIONAL%20DISTRICT&:isGuestRedirectFromVizportal=y&:embed=y

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

The California #s are truly insane.

Partisanship of first 5 million ballots returned
2016: Dem 46, Rep 32, Other 22 (Dem +14)
2018: Dem 45, Rep 31, Other 24 (Dem +14)
2020: Dem 56, Rep 21, Other 23 (Dem +35)

https://capitolweekly.net/ca120-a-historic-flood-of-over-5-million-mail-in-ballots/#disqus_thread

Also of note in places like CA-25, for instance: 30% of Dems have returned ballots already. Only 19% of Reps have.

https://tableau.the-pdi.com/t/CampaignTools/views/2020GeneralBaseAVTrackerforVIZBOT/2020GeneralElectionTrackerVIZBOT?Geography%20Selection=Congressional%20District&Geography%20Selection%20Filter=CD%2025%20-%2025TH%20CONGRESSIONAL%20DISTRICT&:isGuestRedirectFromVizportal=y&:embed=y

Garcia is toast. His victory came largely because of Republicans outnumbering Dems in the special, and that will be nowhere near the case this time around.

[Umengus]

considering that GOP will win  the ED very big, 426K is not enough for dems. 

FL is not like PA where most of the R vote is gonna come on Election Day. GOP is only running a few points behind their registration in FL.

Total Registration

D: 37%
R: 35.69%

EV votes by party reg:

D: 39.8
R: 32.6

So it is not some vast difference and there is going to be less ED vote for GOP than folks think.

Yep. It's just as possible that Reps are doing better with Early Vote in Person is b/c many of their Election Day voters are voting early now.

maybe but polls say otherwise.

D+ 418K now.

[wbrocks67]

considering that GOP will win  the ED very big, 426K is not enough for dems. 

FL is not like PA where most of the R vote is gonna come on Election Day. GOP is only running a few points behind their registration in FL.

Total Registration

D: 37%
R: 35.69%

EV votes by party reg:

D: 39.8
R: 32.6

So it is not some vast difference and there is going to be less ED vote for GOP than folks think.

Yep. It's just as possible that Reps are doing better with Early Vote in Person is b/c many of their Election Day voters are voting early now.

maybe but polls say otherwise.

D+ 418K now.

I would imagine deciding between early in person and election day is fluid right now. It's not something you have to wait for (i.e. if you request mail ballot), so your mind could change. Not something we can really hold voters to.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Minnesota's weekly update is in. Up to 1,186,522 (a 275,137 increase) and at almost 40% of 2016 turnout, an almost 10% increase.

[wbrocks67]

The PA #s continue to be absolutely insane.

Dems 1,023,402 (70.6%)
Reps 293,318 (20.2%)
Other 132,680 (9.2%)
= 1,449,400

Dem lead now +730K (was +684K yesterday)

https://twitter.com/aabramson/status/1319650608916344832

[wbrocks67]

considering that GOP will win  the ED very big, 426K is not enough for dems. 

FL is not like PA where most of the R vote is gonna come on Election Day. GOP is only running a few points behind their registration in FL.

Total Registration

D: 37%
R: 35.69%

EV votes by party reg:

D: 39.8
R: 32.6

So it is not some vast difference and there is going to be less ED vote for GOP than folks think.

Yep. It's just as possible that Reps are doing better with Early Vote in Person is b/c many of their Election Day voters are voting early now.

maybe but polls say otherwise.

D+ 418K now.

As of last night/this morning (with no numbers from today):

FLORIDA
Dems 2,110,366 (44.2%)
Reps 1,682,849 (35.3%)
Other 978,741 (20.5%)
Total 4,771,956

Dems lead is 428K, or 8.9%.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Harris County's morning pace is up noticeably compared to prior mornings this week. At 10k already at 9:15 am. They will most definitely cross the 1 million mark today.

Positive sign that turnout is picking back up post debate? A good day for Biden if Harris can pass a million and Travis hit 400k today.

Also, the state's Webb County totals are wrong for yesterday. They said only 491 voted there yesterday, which would be beyond abysmal, but the county actually has 2,428, putting the county-wide number at 31.5k, tied for the 2018 all-time EV record. They will break the record today. My hope is for Webb to get at least 45k in EV by next Friday, and ideally 50k.

[Umengus]

considering that GOP will win  the ED very big, 426K is not enough for dems. 

FL is not like PA where most of the R vote is gonna come on Election Day. GOP is only running a few points behind their registration in FL.

Total Registration

D: 37%
R: 35.69%

EV votes by party reg:

D: 39.8
R: 32.6

So it is not some vast difference and there is going to be less ED vote for GOP than folks think.

Yep. It's just as possible that Reps are doing better with Early Vote in Person is b/c many of their Election Day voters are voting early now.

maybe but polls say otherwise.

D+ 418K now.

As of last night/this morning (with no numbers from today):

FLORIDA
Dems 2,110,366 (44.2%)
Reps 1,682,849 (35.3%)
Other 978,741 (20.5%)
Total 4,771,956

Dems lead is 428K, or 8.9%.

yep but now it's 418k

[wbrocks67]

considering that GOP will win  the ED very big, 426K is not enough for dems. 

FL is not like PA where most of the R vote is gonna come on Election Day. GOP is only running a few points behind their registration in FL.

Total Registration

D: 37%
R: 35.69%

EV votes by party reg:

D: 39.8
R: 32.6

So it is not some vast difference and there is going to be less ED vote for GOP than folks think.

Yep. It's just as possible that Reps are doing better with Early Vote in Person is b/c many of their Election Day voters are voting early now.

maybe but polls say otherwise.

D+ 418K now.

As of last night/this morning (with no numbers from today):

FLORIDA
Dems 2,110,366 (44.2%)
Reps 1,682,849 (35.3%)
Other 978,741 (20.5%)
Total 4,771,956

Dems lead is 428K, or 8.9%.

yep but now it's 418k

If you're including this morning's data, I wouldn't, since there's no point in compiling tallies until each day is over

[Umengus]

considering that GOP will win  the ED very big, 426K is not enough for dems. 

FL is not like PA where most of the R vote is gonna come on Election Day. GOP is only running a few points behind their registration in FL.

Total Registration

D: 37%
R: 35.69%

EV votes by party reg:

D: 39.8
R: 32.6

So it is not some vast difference and there is going to be less ED vote for GOP than folks think.

Yep. It's just as possible that Reps are doing better with Early Vote in Person is b/c many of their Election Day voters are voting early now.

maybe but polls say otherwise.

D+ 418K now.

As of last night/this morning (with no numbers from today):

FLORIDA
Dems 2,110,366 (44.2%)
Reps 1,682,849 (35.3%)
Other 978,741 (20.5%)
Total 4,771,956

Dems lead is 428K, or 8.9%.

yep but now it's 418k

If you're including this morning's data, I wouldn't, since there's no point in compiling tallies until each day is over

ok. Tonight will be better for trump

[wbrocks67]

Nothing really to add about today's NV update. Sounds like mail ballot processing is slow or delayed, so not really an apples to apples comparison with the Early Vote in person update

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1319652204861476864

[Flabuckeye]

We need to stop obsessing over some arbitrary Dem-Rep difference number for Florida.  All about Turnout.  Only 74.5% of Dems showed up in 2016 vs 81.2% of Repubs....that was the ballgame.

Here is where we are after this morning's update from the Florida SOS.

This chart provides Turnout to date by Party, where they were at the end of all EV in 2016 and what the Final Turnout numbers were.   Dems are way ahead of where they were last time with 10 days of EV left.

Looking more closely on how the counties are doing on Dem turnout compared to their final 2016 EV turnout.  Not bad!  Each rising about 3-4% a day, with 10 days left!   I have included the largest counties and then grouped Mid-Size Counties and Small Counties



Don't underestimate how well Dems are doing in Mid-size Counties and the bellweather Pinellas County

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

The California #s are truly insane.

Partisanship of first 5 million ballots returned
2016: Dem 46, Rep 32, Other 22 (Dem +14)
2018: Dem 45, Rep 31, Other 24 (Dem +14)
2020: Dem 56, Rep 21, Other 23 (Dem +35)

https://capitolweekly.net/ca120-a-historic-flood-of-over-5-million-mail-in-ballots/#disqus_thread

Also of note in places like CA-25, for instance: 30% of Dems have returned ballots already. Only 19% of Reps have.

https://tableau.the-pdi.com/t/CampaignTools/views/2020GeneralBaseAVTrackerforVIZBOT/2020GeneralElectionTrackerVIZBOT?Geography%20Selection=Congressional%20District&Geography%20Selection%20Filter=CD%2025%20-%2025TH%20CONGRESSIONAL%20DISTRICT&:isGuestRedirectFromVizportal=y&:embed=y

Of note, CA-22 is currently D+7 and CA-50 is currently D+12(!!!!)

[CellarDoor]

https://twitter.com/SimonWDC/status/1319636681071468544

[Xing]

Washington votes by mail, so it's no surprise that ballots are coming in quickly, but after less than a week, we're already approaching 50% of 2016 turnout, and I'm pretty sure we'll pass it tonight.

[ajc0918]

Dems in Florida simply need parity with the GOP in terms of turnout. If they can match GOP turnout and make sure NPA turnout doesnt drop off too far they will likely win. The Dem coalition in the state is built with NPAs.

The GOP will turnout and catch up.

[Bootes Void]

I know that is obvious but in Florida, more people have early voted than voted for either Trump or Clinton. Same with Georgia, Texas, NC etc.

The turnout will be very high this year

[Hnv1]

No early votes in NY? Or are they still counting the dem primaries...

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

No early votes in NY? Or are they still counting the dem primaries...

Early voting here starts tomorrow, and I don't think they're reporting absentees (though people I know have submitted them and they've been accepted)

[Adam Griffin]

People could've just been like me from the get-go (rational; normal) and banked on Florida being a Trump/GOP state regardless - just like it was in 2018 for Desatan and Voldemort in a Democratic wave - and not lose their collective s[inks]t over one Safe GOP state potentially voting for the GOP, thinking it somehow is the ballgame for the Presidency.

If your name isn't Barack Obama or Nikki Fried, your chances of winning FL are well under that of a coinflip. Deal with it, etc.