2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[It’s so Joever]

Some legit good data for Democrats here:

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1306427548616863744?s=20

This is going to be an epic election.  We could see turnout in the 150-160 million range.

If Asians save America I will be so happy.

[It’s so Joever]

Well, at least we can bury any “VA is only Lean D” tropes.

[It’s so Joever]

Tbf, Fall’s Church is the exact type of place that would have insanely high turnout this year.

[It’s so Joever]

Tender: Alright let’s be reasonable, these early votes will obviously skew Biden due to the unique circumstances compared to 2016, let’s not draw conclusions from the early vote.
Atlas: Okay.

Atlas a week later: Oh wow look at all the ENTHUSIASM! The suburbs are going to bring this in for Biden!!!

[It’s so Joever]

Bagel, how the hell are you able to vote absentee? Are you travelling on Election Day?

I lied and said I was disabled.

...is that legal?

[It’s so Joever]

Black turnout rate of 16% so far among Dem friendly sample isn't great for Dems though.

I don’t know if rural black voters are exactly more likely to vote early. I would believe educated white urbanites lead the pack here.

[It’s so Joever]

Still too early, but these 200k first FL votes look great for Democrats.

Half of Atlas will ignore the first three words of your post.
The other half will only look at those three words.

[It’s so Joever]

Andrew Bond
@AndrewBond3
·
14m
Amazing how many ballots have come in so far today in FL. 538K (3.7% turnout) in this morning was 462K.  So 76K in so far today. I could see FL hitting 1M returned by Wednesday. Still under 1% in Brevard, Clay, Hernando, Miami, Orange, Pinellas, Polk, Santa Rosa, Seminole.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17YKazYaUMZ33vmd4YHDKcVdlTkP5DmnHQQlAttwOzL0/edit#gid=1837208868

Looks like dems are at 2016 levels or a bit lower in dem % compared to clinton from early observation -

Hillsborough - 51% clinton and in this data has dem at 52% 2020
Palm Beach - 56% clinton 61% dem 2020 (i'm sure this will drop once election day comes in so prob 56%-58% in 2020 or so)
Broward - 66% clinton 63% dem 2020
Osceola - 60% clinton 55% dem 2020 (heavily hispanic county)

curious how it will be when we get more data within the next two weeks.

I'm looking at turnout too.  I am curious what kind of turnout we will get in three areas: South Florida, the Panhandle, and Orange County + surrounding counties. 

Yup agreed - Alachua (Gainesville) big college area looks okay wit the % for Biden, the panhandle is still registered as dem's so take that with a grain of salt most of those people haven't changed their registrations. I'll be curious on the margins and votes in Orange and Seminole too. 138k dem advantage today is only a slight increase, I can see once orange + miami start coming in it can be almost ~200k advantage but still far from where dems need to be in early voting. Great news for a close race as a republican.

buddy this is not how this works lol

Democrats, Republicans, and NPA(no party affiliated)/3rd Party voters requested absentee ballots in the state of Florida. The breakdown of those requests was 46-31-23 Democrat-Republican-Other.

As counties have mailed out those ballots in the past week almost 500,000 have already been returned.

https://twitter.com/KevinCate/status/1312388572830367744

Democrats have returned their ballots at a higher rate than Republicans, beyond their initial advantage in requests. This represents a shift from previous years. All this is stated in the tweet above.

If any importance is afforded to these early statistics Democrats look to be in great shape. Now I don't think these early numbers mean much other than people on both sides are eager to vote. But "Great news for a close race as a Republican" is hilariously wrong. You cannot ignore the 23% of VBM requests that come from voters not affiliated with the two major parties. I guarantee you that those voters favor Joe Biden as a whole because of the Democratic lean of the early vote in general, and possibly as a whole.

You say "still far from where Dems need to be in early voting". My question to you is where should Democrats "be" in early voting at this point, beyond outstripping Republicans in requests and outstripping Republicans even further in return rate?

Pfft, unless Dems have a 600k lead they are supposedly screwed. Never mind the fact that only like 500,000 out of millions of ballots have been returned.

The Dems are going to lose because they don’t have a 600k margin out of 500k total ballots. It’s just math, liberals.

[It’s so Joever]

I think people here are forgetting that an equally large numbers of R's will vote more than D's on Election Day and if the pattern holds from the Aug party, in person early voting will lean R

Why do you think we are talking about netting a large gap early on?
You think we want a 500k~ Dem advantage just for fun?

[It’s so Joever]

NC early vote has only 15% of AA vote (2016 AA vote was 20%) and white vote is up since 2016 - does this sound concerning? given biden's shift to white voters this might still net out to trump + 3 atm but does this raise any red flags?

You are mixing up early and mail voting.
In 2016 in NC, blacks only made up 9% of the mail-in vote but certainly did vote early in-person more. Regardless, I wouldn’t extrapolate too much from this data since only 25% of mail-votes are even in and because of the different circumstances.

[It’s so Joever]

We (wife, son, and I) just filled out our ballots and took them to the dropbox.  That's three votes for Biden, Ossoff, and Warnock.

[img]Drop Box[img]

Good.

GA needs to go 3x blue.

Ossoff and Warnock would make great new Senators, along with Harrison from SC.

Lol Harrison is not flipping the seat.
I have a feeling SC is going to be the 2018 TN of this race.

[It’s so Joever]

How accurate is Target Smart modeling usually?

[It’s so Joever]

The current data in MI/WI is very concerning. I would be on the lookout for a potential upset.

[It’s so Joever]

The current data in MI/WI is very concerning. I would be on the lookout for a potential upset.

What current data? Everything looks overwhelmingly positive. What are you talking about??

Correction: The current modeling of the early vote by party registration.

[It’s so Joever]

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/michigan-results
The models are worrisome.

[It’s so Joever]

Also, looks like the D lead is about 230k now in Florida, still basically nothing from Miami but Orange came online.

Palm Beach at 120k ballots returned.  Is this a sign that elderly Democratic voters are the most engaged (given Trump's handling of the coronavirus)?

Pretty incredible that the FL lead keeps getting bigger and bigger. I did not expect that.

Keep in mind that Miami-Dade is still ridiculously behind everyone else.

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1313899653012885504?s=20

WOW

Brian Kemp had one f**king job.

[It’s so Joever]

FLORIDA

1,519,079 votes cast

Democratic 778,283 (51.2%)
Republican 443,157 (29.2%)
Others 297,639 (19.6%)

Dem lead increases to 335,126

Another ~180k ballots were processed today

The Florida numbers are becoming fairly stunning given that there's not in person voting yet (right?).

Correct, in-person early voting doesn't begin 'til Mon., Oct. 19th.

I am starting to think Mike Bloomberg is playing a big role here.  What else explains this.

Incorrect. As somebody on the ground, I'd contend that if Bloomberg is responsible in anyway, then it's only negligibly. The main factors at play here are the general trend of Democratic enthusiasm being through the f**king roof & the fact that a deadly global pandemic is currently occurring.

are old people in Florida turning on Trump in a meaningful way?

Certainly seems like it. The Villages comes to mind as an example of a heavily pro-Trump area that's recently seen a surge in pro-Biden support (relatively speaking, of course - unless Florida literally starts falling into the sea between now & Election Day, Trump still takes it).

How do we know the villages has seen such a shift?

[It’s so Joever]

Finally received my ballot. I am excited to vote.

[It’s so Joever]

Finally received my ballot. I am excited to vote.

Yesterday you said tomorrow, so JUST DO IT!

Did it today.
Voting out Gardner/Trump and against the local school district felt so satisfying. I’ve been waiting for this moment for years. There seems to be a lot of enthusiasm to vote this year.

[It’s so Joever]

Now do you see why Georgia won’t flip?

[It’s so Joever]

I'm in line for early voting in McKinney and it's an hour long wait. This is insane.

you can vote by mail, vote on election day or wait a few days... LOL

I mean, I understand the concept of your answer, but two things can happen at once. You could wait till another day to vote, sure, or vote a different way... but at the same time, there's no reason why there isn't more sites in MANY states right now to vote. One drop box in a whole county is insane. Just like in GA, there should've been more remote sites to early vote at.

It's a fundamental Republican philosophy to make it harder for people to vote.  This is why Election Day still isn't a national holiday...it's the ONLY reason they're railing against mail-in ballots...it's why there are hours long lines to vote...it's why they purge voter rolls...it's why they decrease polling sites and limit the ways in which we can cast our ballots.

They know that they're quickly losing demographics and they're grasping at whatever threads they can.

Eventually the only way they'll be able to stay in power is by outright cheating.

It should be quite difficult for people to vote, and suffrage in general needs to be scaled back a lot. Many people who vote should not be allowed to.

At least you are living up to your name.

[It’s so Joever]

I'm in line for early voting in McKinney and it's an hour long wait. This is insane.

you can vote by mail, vote on election day or wait a few days... LOL

I mean, I understand the concept of your answer, but two things can happen at once. You could wait till another day to vote, sure, or vote a different way... but at the same time, there's no reason why there isn't more sites in MANY states right now to vote. One drop box in a whole county is insane. Just like in GA, there should've been more remote sites to early vote at.

It's a fundamental Republican philosophy to make it harder for people to vote.  This is why Election Day still isn't a national holiday...it's the ONLY reason they're railing against mail-in ballots...it's why there are hours long lines to vote...it's why they purge voter rolls...it's why they decrease polling sites and limit the ways in which we can cast our ballots.

They know that they're quickly losing demographics and they're grasping at whatever threads they can.

Eventually the only way they'll be able to stay in power is by outright cheating.

It should be quite difficult for people to vote, and suffrage in general needs to be scaled back a lot. Many people who vote should not be allowed to.

I don't give a rat's ass about Yellowhammer, but one person recommend this post--Jessica.  Which is interesting because just 5 days ago Jessica posted this

Voting should be by mail in every state. I am a conservative but I believe everyone should have a right to vote and it should be easy!

Please explain yourself

Honestly, there were good reason for the founders to make it land owning tax paying citizens. That was to prevent traitors and anti-Americans from getting control of the government. Well, look what is happening.  Of course, you think it is fine that cities are burning from people with little to no respect for the law and culture of our country. This is why I endorsed his post but also feel that people that do love this country should have an easy time with voting.

This is all I will say about it as this is off topic.

No...that’s just historically inaccurate.
The reason non-landowners were prevented from voting was to specifically prevent a large uneducated populace from voting in a populist with little regard for the establishments in place. It was seen as a safeguard against tyranny.
It also was created to prevent the interests of rich landowners from being breached.
It had nothing to do with “love” for the country, unless you really believe that the entire poor population somehow hated America.
As for traitors...well let’s just say there were plenty of wealthy landowners who held pro-British and anti-American views at the start.

[It’s so Joever]

Pretty incredible. 5% of 2016 turnout in Harris County in an 8-hour span 20 days before Election Day.

That’s...not bad.

[It’s so Joever]

Dem ballot lead in Florida is getting really close to 400k now!

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17YKazYaUMZ33vmd4YHDKcVdlTkP5DmnHQQlAttwOzL0/edit#gid=1837208868

Can we get the arbitrary 600 k?