2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I keep checking this thread hoping to see Georgia updates every time there's a new post, haha

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Really excited for TX to start here in 11 days. I’ll be watching to see if we can increase turnout in the Rio Grande Valley in particular. If we can get them out at a respectable rate, I like Biden’s odds in Texas.

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I know it’s still super early, but the Georgia votes look very good for Biden so far. The whites/black number is roughly 56-34, which is much better than it was in 2018 when Abrams’ only lost by 1%. On top of that, nearly half of the Latino/Asian votes banked thus far did not vote in 2016/2018. Dare I say that it might be “just there yet”?

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On twitter someone said dems needs to be up by ~550k votes in early mail in to win the state or be competitive at least - does this sound right?

If you’re talking about Florida, then yes, I’ve seen the 500-700k vote advantage floated multiple places, and I see no reason to disagree with that. Republicans will turn out in full force on Election Day, so it is up to Dems to get as many infrequent voters banked away as possible to counteract that.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I know it’s still super early, but the Georgia votes look very good for Biden so far. The whites/black number is roughly 56-34, which is much better than it was in 2018 when Abrams’ only lost by 1%. On top of that, nearly half of the Latino/Asian votes banked thus far did not vote in 2016/2018. Dare I say that it might be “just there yet”?

One thing to keep in mind that the initial flood of absentee ballots hasn't even fully gone out in Georgia, let alone been returned.  We just got our ballots in Forsyth County yesterday, even though they were requested on the portal 8/28 and "issued" on 9/18.  I also heard that Gwinnett has mailed less than half of its ballots so far (it has a unique issue: larger envelopes that required a special printer because they are required to be printed in both English and Spanish -- the only county in Georgia with such a requirement.)

That would be even better for Biden than these early numbers point to then.

Biden needs to win Gwinnett by around 20% and Cobb by 15% I think to have better than even odds. I think that is entirely doable. Also, getting 30% in your own Forsyth sounds doable based on the primary.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Seems like Atlanta votes haven't started trickling in either.  Not sure if that impacts the Georgia analysis above.

The 200k votes already banked are a very Biden-friendly looking cohort, so presumably the missing metro Atlanta votes would only exacerbate that.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Seems like Atlanta votes haven't started trickling in either.  Not sure if that impacts the Georgia analysis above.

The 200k votes already banked are a very Biden-friendly looking cohort, so presumably the missing metro Atlanta votes would only exacerbate that.

That's what I was thinking.  I guess 200k is a fairly low number, but signs point to Georgia really being a battleground this year, possibly moreso than NC (as many here predicted).  Dems should really consider a massive investment in Georgia.  Two senate seats come along with this prize.

I think Dems and the Biden campaign finally got their heads out of their asses and are investing heavily there now

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Andrew Bond
@AndrewBond3
·
14m
Amazing how many ballots have come in so far today in FL. 538K (3.7% turnout) in this morning was 462K.  So 76K in so far today. I could see FL hitting 1M returned by Wednesday. Still under 1% in Brevard, Clay, Hernando, Miami, Orange, Pinellas, Polk, Santa Rosa, Seminole.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17YKazYaUMZ33vmd4YHDKcVdlTkP5DmnHQQlAttwOzL0/edit#gid=1837208868

Looks like dems are at 2016 levels or a bit lower in dem % compared to clinton from early observation -

Hillsborough - 51% clinton and in this data has dem at 52% 2020
Palm Beach - 56% clinton 61% dem 2020 (i'm sure this will drop once election day comes in so prob 56%-58% in 2020 or so)
Broward - 66% clinton 63% dem 2020
Osceola - 60% clinton 55% dem 2020 (heavily hispanic county)

curious how it will be when we get more data within the next two weeks.

Not sure I understand—Dems are turning in their ballots so far at greater rates than Republicans are. Your analysis also doesn’t include how independents vote, so comparing D returns to Clinton’s percentage is very misleading

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Andrew Bond
@AndrewBond3
·
14m
Amazing how many ballots have come in so far today in FL. 538K (3.7% turnout) in this morning was 462K.  So 76K in so far today. I could see FL hitting 1M returned by Wednesday. Still under 1% in Brevard, Clay, Hernando, Miami, Orange, Pinellas, Polk, Santa Rosa, Seminole.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17YKazYaUMZ33vmd4YHDKcVdlTkP5DmnHQQlAttwOzL0/edit#gid=1837208868

Looks like dems are at 2016 levels or a bit lower in dem % compared to clinton from early observation -

Hillsborough - 51% clinton and in this data has dem at 52% 2020
Palm Beach - 56% clinton 61% dem 2020 (i'm sure this will drop once election day comes in so prob 56%-58% in 2020 or so)
Broward - 66% clinton 63% dem 2020
Osceola - 60% clinton 55% dem 2020 (heavily hispanic county)

curious how it will be when we get more data within the next two weeks.

Not sure I understand—Dems are turning in their ballots so far at greater rates than Republicans are. Your analysis also doesn’t include how independents vote, so comparing D returns to Clinton’s percentage is very misleading

Yeah i'm excluding the independents but just looking at the party vote, the dems are expected to be returning their ballots faster but they aren't coming in as much of a greater % as i would expect right now they need huge numbers to overlap the republican's on election day.

If that helps you sleep, ok. Dem return percentages are higher than R’s and they built a 150k advantage in a week, without even including votes from Orange or Miami-Dade. This is not a “bad” sign by any means.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I think people here are forgetting that an equally large numbers of R's will vote more than D's on Election Day and if the pattern holds from the Aug party, in person early voting will lean R

No one is forgetting that. Everyone knows Election Day voters will be overwhelmingly R. It’s important for D’s now to maximize their infrequent voters and first time voters now while they have the chance, and so far it looks like they are doing that to some extent.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I’m trying to temper my excitement with the caveat that it is still very early,  but fully 20% of the early votes cast in Georgia thus far are new voters who didn’t vote in 2018 or 2016. That’s over 50,000 voters, and is a very friendly group to Biden at least on paper. For reference, Abrams lost in 2018 by about that much.

I believe in a blue Georgia.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

The bigger thing in Georgia is the number of first time voters. It’s already 60k, and we’re only in the first week of October. That should scare the hell out of Republicans. Advantage Biden

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

At least one of the 700,000+ Virginia early votes is for Biden 

I also voted NO on the redistricting amendment.

Are outside groups advertising to try and defeat that monstrosity amendment?

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Early in person voting starts in some big Sun Belt states next week: Texas and Georgia. We should see tons of votes added daily.

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Do we know if all these votes in PA are valid, or do the ones not in the slips get invalidated on Election Day when they’re opened up and counted?

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Do we know if all these votes in PA are valid, or do the ones not in the slips get invalidated on Election Day when they’re opened up and counted?

Does anyone have an answer for this

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https://twitter.com/BryanLowry3/status/1315661570744225792?s=20

Kansas has party breakdown, I believe. Any word on that?

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Crazy registration numbers in Texas.

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1315786012812075010?s=20

"It's not there yet"

Theoretically, Biden wouldn’t even need to flip any Trump ‘16 voters to win it. But if I point that out I’m a hack

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Alright bitches, turns out I will probably be too busy with work to vote tomorrow or Wednesday as promised, but Thursday or Friday, I’ll come back here to report my first vote in a Texas general election.

Biden +1. Only 214,980 votes to go to turn TX blue!

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https://twitter.com/CGHollins/status/1316087621853089795

Feeling good about Biden netting that 300k margin out of here.

@OSR

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https://twitter.com/CGHollins/status/1316087621853089795

Feeling good about Biden netting that 300k margin out of here.

@OSR

Is that what he needs to have a chance at winning statewide?

300k margin out of Harris would essentially halve the 2018 Senate margin statewide. O’Rourke netted 200k out of there, but with relatively low turnout.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Really excited to see if Hidalgo can get close to 30k today, and Cameron over 10k.

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It’s extremely bad news Dallas County couldn’t even surpass 2016.

Not really, atleast not for democrats. Might be a terrible sign for Republicans. Dallas County in 2016 had around 15k more in turnout day 1 compared to Day 1 in 2018 and Beto outdid Hillary by 20k in the total count by the end.

I’d be willing to bet this number is caused by the republicans in Dallas county not turning out.

We also don’t know that early vote + absentees don’t significantly outnumber 2016’s here, and I’d bet they do

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Hidalgo cast 25k votes today, a new record. Not as much as I was hoping, but a promising sign at least that it’s outpacing 2016/2018

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Lol, and to think people were pointing to Dallas as a bad sign without even factoring in the astronomical absentees compared to 2016.