2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[Dr. Arch]

WARNING:

This thread will show significantly higher absentee requests and people will go like "Wow, they are so HUGE compared to 2016, Biden is favoured !"

But in fact, no conclusion whatsoever can be drawn from those requests, because all the Trump voters will vote on election day.

And this will make up for all the increases in postal vote requests ...

Atlas: Alright.

Also Atlas: Proceeds to scream at each other over early votes for the next two months.

[Dr. Arch]

Michigan SoS: Prepare for Election Week

Michigan's secretary of state said on Sunday her state's full results of the Nov. 3 elections won't be available on Election Day, advising voters it could take a week for a final tally.

"We should be prepared for this to be closer to an election week as opposed to an election day," Jocelyn Benson said on NBC's "Meet the Press." "The bottom line is we are not going to have the full results and a counting of all of our ballots on election night. We already know that. We've asked the legislature to make changes to the laws to give us more ability to be prepared and count those ballots more efficiently."

But Benson added the legislature hasn't acted on her requests, though her office has increased tabulators and capacity to count ballots. The most important aspect to this year's elections, she said, is accuracy.

NC absentee requests are up over 1500% compared to this day 4 years ago:

61 Days Before 2016: 38,871
61 Days Before 2020: 643,400

If people's minds are made up earlier, that means that there's no need to wait to make up your mind before voting. That might explain this insane surge when compared to a year with tons of undecided voters down to the last day.

[Dr. Arch]

When do we start getting consistent daily updates from states with modeled/registered party IDs? I know they don't mean too much, except maybe this year when most voters are likely to vote using VBM, but at least it gives me something to look forward to in this subforum.

[Dr. Arch]

Just got my absentee ballot. I'm gonna fill it up, and send it in ASAP!

[Dr. Arch]

https://twitter.com/amandawgolden/status/1306924666150420481?s=21
https://twitter.com/juliecareynbc/status/1306925152547098624?s=21
https://twitter.com/prandallcares/status/1306931118277619714?s=21
https://twitter.com/arlingtonvotes/status/1306945594762633216?s=21

W T H. It's as if it were election day!

[Dr. Arch]

My God! Here is the first bunch of returned absentee ballots from Madison, WI over the weekend.

https://twitter.com/MadisonWIClerk/status/1308071891039662083?s=20

I'm almost certain mine is in there.

[Dr. Arch]

My God! Here is the first bunch of returned absentee ballots from Madison, WI over the weekend.

https://twitter.com/MadisonWIClerk/status/1308071891039662083?s=20

This is good news right? That means that they got them back relatively fast?

It means the ballots got put in the mail last Tuesday, got to the voter, the voter completed it, mailed it back, and it got back to the clerk's office today.

Yeah, there was analysis going around that the USPS VBM issues would mostly affect rural more than suburban or urban voters, since the latter already live close to processing centers and clerks, so the delay would be minimal.

[Dr. Arch]

Why is Milwaukee so low?  I would have thought Democrats would be targeting that city.  Dane voters are going to turnout anyway.

MKE is always slow at the start. They catch up later on.

[Dr. Arch]

https://twitter.com/davebjerke/status/1308875641320886272

Pretty incredible that any area has 11% turnout already just after what, a week?

Not even, I think.

[Dr. Arch]

I'm sorry but I have to think such insane early voting has to help Democrats if it stays like this.  Even though the Falls Church voters would almost certainly vote on Election Day, you never know, a few might have something come up, etc.  This banks their votes now.  Plus the party doesn't have to worry about them and invest resources last minute on voters who have already turned out.  If a similar thing happens in Philly and its burbs I think that's a good sign.

We saw this in 2018.

[Dr. Arch]

Also, when one of the most democratic areas in the state is approaching 20% turnout over a month before the election, it's hard to argue that there's no enthusiasm for Biden (or at least for voting Democrat / against Trump).

We need more reports like these in other Biden-favorable areas in other states like GA, OH, WI, MI, etc.

[Dr. Arch]

Also, when one of the most democratic areas in the state is approaching 20% turnout over a month before the election, it's hard to argue that there's no enthusiasm for Biden (or at least for voting Democrat / against Trump).

We need more reports like these in other Biden-favorable areas in other states like GA, OH, WI, MI, etc.

I am trying to make sense of the turnout in WI.  Dane numbers look similar to what I'm posting, but Milwaukee numbers look bad.  But maybe they are just slower at reporting/sending out ballots?

Milwaukee always looks bad early. The county moves slower in general and catches up much later.

[Dr. Arch]

are there any good signs for republicans in early voting so far? i don't know how to read this i know reps won't be winning this vote but curious for any trends anyone has noticed. i know in the south a big thing to watch is the white % and see how that is compared to the black %.

Not necessarily. Biden is doing a lot better with white voters in general. That might be a better idea in the southern states, perhaps.

Overall, what you want to look at is turnout, and where it's coming from, like Falls Church. So far, it's looking more like 2018.

[Dr. Arch]

Wisconsin added another 25,295 votes over the weekend. This brings it to 20.44% of all absentee requests returned which is 7.56% of all current registered voters and 8.01% of all 2016 voters. Of that 48% of the new votes came from Dane County, which shows how much of a success Democracy in the Parks was in Madison. Dane County is now at 29.64% of absentee ballots returned, which is 14.25% of registered voters and 17.10% of 2016 voters. The lead the state in the last two and are now only about 3% behind Douglas County on % of absentee returns.

Milwaukee continues to pick up the pace a little bit as they added 7,031 votes and are now up to 27,037 returned votes. I saw a tweet on Twitter on Saturday of folks just getting their absentee ballots, so that's partially why they have only returned 13.35% of absentee requests. In terms of the % of 2016 votes returned they are 36th in the state, which is exactly in the middle for all Wisconsin counties. Hopefully we see a big improvement this week. 

Other counties that have now passed 10% of 2016 voters include Brown (10.49%), Douglas (11.53%), La Crosse (10.14%), Rock (10.13%), and Sauk (10.15%). Ashland, Door, Ozaukee, Portage, and Winnebago will probably all enter this range as soon as tomorrow. Let me know if there is anything else you'd like to know!

Even better news for Dane, Democracy in the Parks is an ongoing event until October 5, I believe.

[Dr. Arch]

How energized are Democrats? Yes.

[Dr. Arch]

I don't think it's worth paying much attention to early voting until right before election night. We still don't have enough data at all.

With some states already approaching 25% of their 2016 turnout more than a month still out, I disagree.

You're citing statistics that mean absolutely nothing of predictive value. Let's see what turnout is right before the election.

Huh? States are literally nearing 25% of their entire 2016 turnout with a *MONTH TO GO* That is absolutely of predictive value that this is going to be insanely high turnout election

It could be frontloaded. And no state is near 25% besides South Dakota (which is at 17%). virginia/wisconsin are only around 13%...

To be fair, Dane County (WI) is already at 50% turnout in ballot requests, and nearly 40% of those requested ballots have already been turned in. This is going to be a sky high turnout election (for Democrats, at least).

[Dr. Arch]

https://twitter.com/cheyennehaslett/status/1311733108039974912

Wait a second, 1.97 million issued? I think she wants to say 1.197 million
https://elections.wi.gov/node/7146

Yeah, although it is up to 1.217 now.

[Dr. Arch]

Gass, could you explain those maps that you posted?

[Dr. Arch]

Glass, could you explain those maps that you posted?

Today we got the October 1 registration numbers. I compared the total registered voters today compared to the first we got after the elections in 2016 and 2018. It's pretty clear there was a cleaning/review/purge of the lists after 2016. My guess is that most of the blue counties in the first map will be red by November 1 given the current registration rates. It might take the City of Milwaukee until election day registration, but I think they will get over the 2016 number too. Dane County added over 10,000 new voters in October.

Got it. Thanks!

[Dr. Arch]

Wisconsin has updated numbers: https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/WI.html

437,000 returned.

Holy sh**t. Dane is already at nearly a 50% return rate.

Yep, and at over 50% request rate. Milwaukee is catching up too.

[Dr. Arch]

Does high turnout in wisconsin around the board benefit dems or repubs? dane had 218k votes in 2016, curious to see how far they can go if they break 80-20 for biden.

It's not just about turnout, but the places that are turning out. So far, Wisconsin is behaving like a supercharged version of 2018. That should tell you what you need to know.

[Dr. Arch]

Minnesota isn't messing around.

[Dr. Arch]

What states are we most surprised and/or impressed by in terms of early turnout?

I'm surprised at South Dakota (seems random) and impressed with Wisconsin.

Yeah, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Virginia, and North Carolina are off the charts.

[Dr. Arch]

Does high turnout in wisconsin around the board benefit dems or repubs? dane had 218k votes in 2016, curious to see how far they can go if they break 80-20 for biden.

Wasn't some of the post-2016 analysis that low turnout in Milwaukee really hurt Clinton?  I'm keeping my eye on turnout in places like Milwaukee, Philly, Detroit, Minneapolis. 

I presume college educated white suburban voters are already turning out no matter what.

After being towards the bottom of the list, Milwaukee County is now 20/72 in terms of % of 2016 vote returned. Shockingly (not!) the mail is taking longer there. I would not be shocked if they jumped Dane County in terms of raw votes within the next week.

Yeah, MKE is going much faster than expected. It usually takes them a long while to even catch up to Dane, and they usually run behind their suburbs, which is the opposite case this time around too.

[Dr. Arch]

49,716 new votes returned in Wisconsin since last Friday. About 46% of the ballots came from Dane and Milwaukee. Dane County is still leading the pack with the highest number of raw votes, highest % of registered voters, and highest % of 2016 voters. They will probably pass 100,000 votes with tomorrow's update and could pass Douglas County for the highest % of applications returned. Milwaukee is doing a much better job now returning votes. They are now in the top 15 of counties with % of 2016 votes returned and had the highest raw number of returns over the weekend. Let me know if there is anything else you'd like me to look into.

The places in NE WI that are requesting/returning at higher rates, are they from the cities (e.g., Green Bay, Menasha, etc.) or are the counties more or less balanced in how they're returning?

In 2018 and in the SC race, in counties like Eau Claire, the city was the one that overwhelmingly driving turnout, rather than the rurals, and that disparity was the warning sign for Republicans.