2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[Alben Barkley]

Remaining voters in Florida lean Biden

https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/1319680628871352320?s=21

What does this mean

I found it confusing too, but I think it means that Biden's vote share in the three categories significantly outpaces the percentage of Democratic voters, meaning that Biden is winning large chunks of Independents and some Republicans.

To simplify it further, when you break all this down it adds up to being on track for about a Biden +5 victory, which fits with the polls and by the way would be the biggest win in Florida since Bush 2004.

[Alben Barkley]

The annoying part about the Doomers is the “heads I win tails you lose” mentality of freaking out overs reps doing better in EV then polling indicated but then not giving a thought to the idea that Dems might turnout on ED better then polling indicates

They have set up a situation where (in their minds) they can’t lose. If Biden wins, they can be like “Gee, so glad I was wrong!” If Trump wins, they get to gloat about being right while everyone else was wrong.

It’s very annoying, and I for one am not gonna let them get away with it when Biden wins. Never let them forget their bedwetting!

[BudgieForce]

Not that it matters, but when you get a Florida drivers license, they also ask you if you want to register to vote. When me and my family went through the process, I got asked to specify a party. My sister and father did not, so they got registered as NPA. Both are democrats. I think getting registered at the DMV as a NPA voter is pretty common.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17YKazYaUMZ33vmd4YHDKcVdlTkP5DmnHQQlAttwOzL0/edit#gid=1667359942

41% of registered Democrats in Florida have now already voted.  With 11 DAYS STILL LEFT TO VOTE.  What part of this is bad for a state where high turnout tends to favor democrats?

[GeneralMacArthur]

Do we know anything about results for the Bloomberg felon voter drive?

[Gass3268]

Pennsylvania Supreme Court rules that ballots cannot be rejected due to signature issues. The can’t find anything in the law passed by the legislature that requires it. Big ruling, could help counter some of the naked ballot issues and speed up the counting process.

https://twitter.com/elaijuh/status/1319696427849842688?s=21

[mijan]

In IA 1 there are  181326 active Dems
95726 D voted early .
112646 D requested ballots .
52.79% active Dems have already voted.
62.18% active Dems requested ballots.

In IA 2 there are 182364 active Dems
95205 D voted early.
116299 D requested ballots.
52.20% active Dems have already voted.
63.78% active Dems requested ballots.

In IA 3 there are 197004 active Dems
96718 D voted early

122076 D requested ballots.
49.09% active  Dems have already voted.
61.97% active Dems requested ballots.

In IA 4 there are 129557 active Dems
62720 D voted early
77890 D requested ballots.
48.41% active  Dems have already voted.
60.12% active Dems requested ballots.

[Alben Barkley]

Pennsylvania Supreme Court rules that ballots cannot be rejected due to signature issues. The can’t find anything in the law passed by the legislature that requires it. Big ruling, could help counter some of the naked ballot issues and speed up the counting process.

https://twitter.com/elaijuh/status/1319696427849842688?s=21

EXCELLENT!

This is some of the best news of the day.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Here is an update on the demographic/primary voting history data I posted yesterday for TX early voting.

Updated report is here - https://mcusercontent.com/d3064a2fadaf6089dc58a8393/files/c269aebb-c027-490d-ae9b-487678a34e83/Statewide_Report_Day_9.03.pdf

Yesterday's report for comparison is here - https://mcusercontent.com/d3064a2fadaf6089dc58a8393/files/862e2ef3-a87a-4640-8919-0137e43dc5b6/Statewide_Report_Day_8.04.pdf


First of all, there is something weird going on in the report. The Day 8 report had, for example, 76.3% of voters who voted in 4 of the past 4 Dem primaries had already voted. But in the Day 9 report, it now says that only 74% of 4 of 4 Dem primary voters have already voted.

That should not be happening, votes do not get subtracted over time, they should only be being added. So there is probably some sort of error/mistake in one of the reports (could be either one). Maybe the guy that made the report found some sort of minor methodological mistake/calculation mistake and fixed it. Or possibly the voter file he was using might have just happened to be updated yesterday or something. In any case, this does make direct comparison of the Day 8 and Day 9 statistics a bit suspect, but we may as well look at them anyway and just keep this caveat in mind.


Perhaps partly as a result of this methodological issue/inconsistency, the share of 2020 early voters with Republican primary vote history went up slightly from 31.2% to 31.3% (but voters with mixed primary vote history who last voted in an R primary went down from 0.9% to 0.8%). However, the share with Dem primary vote history went down from 27.5% to 26.1% (and the share with mixed history but last voted in a Dem primary went down from 3.0% to 2.9%).

So with this new data, the partisan composition of the electorate looks a bit worse for Dems than yesterday. This is clouded, though, by questions about how the % of dems that voted went down.

If this change reflects an actual change in more Rs voting at this point in the early vote period, that would obviously be good for Trump. If not, and if it mostly relates to the methodology issue, then it is more ambiguous, as one would expect more voters without primary voting history on either side to vote as time goes on and the electorate broadens (and brand new voters, with no vote history at all, went up from 11.7% to 12.7%, which is already higher than 2018, but still lower than 2016).


Another thing we can look at is age... On that point, there is a pretty sharp shift towards the electorate getting younger for just a single day's additional votes being added. The share of voters age 18-29 went up from 10.5% to 11.7%


In terms of gender, BOTH the male and the female vote share went up slightly by 0.3% (this is because voters with an unknown gender went down from 4.8% to 4.2%). I would guess this might suggest that there was some sort of one-off update to the voter file and now have more information/better guesses about gender of voters.


In sum, there are multiple ways to interpret the latest data from TX especially given uncertainty about what seems like an inconsistency/methodological change. It may be good for Dems that apparently more younger voters and more brand new voters (whom one would think would tend to lean D except for non-college whites in a state with TX's demographics) are now turning out to vote. But if there was an initial wave of Dem voting which is now dying down and more Rs are starting to vote, that would be good for GOP hopes of holding on to TX.

To figure out which of those is more likely the case, we probably need to wait for tomorrow's report.

[Alben Barkley]

Not that it matters, but when you get a Florida drivers license, they also ask you if you want to register to vote. When me and my family went through the process, I got asked to specify a party. My sister and father did not, so they got registered as NPA. Both are democrats. I think getting registered at the DMV as a NPA voter is pretty common.

This actually does matter as it could help explain why there are so many registered independents/NPA and why they seem to be breaking so heavily Democratic.

[mijan]

In Iowa there are 690252 active  Dems
350369 Dems have voted early.
428911 Dems have requested ballots
50.75% active Dems have voted early
62.14% active Dems have requested ballots

[Flabuckeye]

We need to stop obsessing over some arbitrary Dem-Rep difference number for Florida.  All about Turnout.  Only 74.5% of Dems showed up in 2016 vs 81.2% of Repubs....that was the ballgame.

Here is where we are after this morning's update from the Florida SOS.

This chart provides Turnout to date by Party, where they were at the end of all EV in 2016 and what the Final Turnout numbers were.   Dems are way ahead of where they were last time with 10 days of EV left.

We need a tracker like this updated daily if possible!  Wonderful and useful image!

Will do, after each morning when the Florida DOE updates (before 9am)
I will also give updates on how the key big counties are doing.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

In Iowa there are 690252 active  Dems
350369 Dems have voted early.
428911 Dems have requested ballots
50.75% active Dems have voted early
62.14% active Dems have requested ballots

Does Iowa have "true" in person early voting? Or is it something like in-person absentee where you register, request, vote, and submit in one stop?

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1319706402802237442

[mijan]

In Iowa there are 690252 active  Dems
350369 Dems have voted early.
428911 Dems have requested ballots
50.75% active Dems have voted early
62.14% active Dems have requested ballots

Does Iowa have "true" in person early voting? Or is it something like in-person absentee where you register, request, vote, and submit in one stop?

Just  like you have said it is something like in-person absentee where you register, request, vote, and submit in one stop

[DINGO Joe]

In Iowa there are 690252 active  Dems
350369 Dems have voted early.
428911 Dems have requested ballots
50.75% active Dems have voted early
62.14% active Dems have requested ballots

Does Iowa have "true" in person early voting? Or is it something like in-person absentee where you register, request, vote, and submit in one stop?

Just  like you have said it is something like in-person absentee where you register, request, vote, and submit in one stop

In fact, tomorrow is the first Saturday for in person absentee voting.  Don't think that counties do more than one site though.  I'd expect overall early voting to end up around 850,000.

[Flabuckeye]

Do we know anything about results for the Bloomberg felon voter drive?

I read somewhere where it netted 67,000.  Hundreds of thousands more weren't able to pay their fees or even figure out what they owed.

[mijan]

In Iowa there are 690252 active  Dems
350369 Dems have voted early.
428911 Dems have requested ballots
50.75% active Dems have voted early
62.14% active Dems have requested ballots

Does Iowa have "true" in person early voting? Or is it something like in-person absentee where you register, request, vote, and submit in one stop?

Just  like you have said it is something like in-person absentee where you register, request, vote, and submit in one stop

In fact, tomorrow is the first Saturday for in person absentee voting.  Don't think that counties do more than one site though.  I'd expect overall early voting to end up around 850,000.

Already 876000 people have requested ballots.I think it will over 900k.

[Non Swing Voter]

We need to stop obsessing over some arbitrary Dem-Rep difference number for Florida.  All about Turnout.  Only 74.5% of Dems showed up in 2016 vs 81.2% of Repubs....that was the ballgame.

Here is where we are after this morning's update from the Florida SOS.

This chart provides Turnout to date by Party, where they were at the end of all EV in 2016 and what the Final Turnout numbers were.   Dems are way ahead of where they were last time with 10 days of EV left.

We need a tracker like this updated daily if possible!  Wonderful and useful image!

Will do, after each morning when the Florida DOE updates (before 9am)
I will also give updates on how the key big counties are doing.

You are awesome, we really appreciate it.

[Crumpets]

Remaining voters in Florida lean Biden

https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/1319680628871352320?s=21

What does this mean

I found it confusing too, but I think it means that Biden's vote share in the three categories significantly outpaces the percentage of Democratic voters, meaning that Biden is winning large chunks of Independents and some Republicans.

To simplify it further, when you break all this down it adds up to being on track for about a Biden +5 victory, which fits with the polls and by the way would be the biggest win in Florida since Bush 2004.

I may be misreading, but this seems like somewhat circular logic, as the estimates are based on a poll showing Biden +5 with registered voters. So, the Biden +5 result you get by doing the math is only really as strong as that poll, not so much the very concrete data we have on the early voting numbers from Florida.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Remaining voters in Florida lean Biden

https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/1319680628871352320?s=21

What does this mean

I found it confusing too, but I think it means that Biden's vote share in the three categories significantly outpaces the percentage of Democratic voters, meaning that Biden is winning large chunks of Independents and some Republicans.

To simplify it further, when you break all this down it adds up to being on track for about a Biden +5 victory, which fits with the polls and by the way would be the biggest win in Florida since Bush 2004.

I may be misreading, but this seems like somewhat circular logic, as the estimates are based on a poll showing Biden +5 with registered voters. So, the Biden +5 result you get by doing the math is only really as strong as that poll, not so much the very concrete data we have on the early voting numbers from Florida.

This is a point I feel like a lot of people here are missing.

So far the Florida Republicans have done far better with in person early voting than they were predicted to by the polls. It's possible that this is just an anomaly and the Democrats are waiting for the last minute to vote in person early but far more likely is that the polls are simply off. Particularly the ones giving crazy results like Sarasota going for Biden by 13 points.

It's not like it's worth getting worked up about even if it holds true. Biden doesn't need Florida to win.

[Brittain33]

This is a point I feel like a lot of people here are missing.

So far the Florida Republicans have done far better with in person early voting than they were predicted to by the polls. It's possible that this is just an anomaly and the Democrats are waiting for the last minute to vote in person early but far more likely is that the polls are simply off. Particularly the ones giving crazy results like Sarasota going for Biden by 13 points.

It's not like it's worth getting worked up about even if it holds true. Biden doesn't need Florida to win.

Isn’t it more relevant to the explanation that huge numbers of Dems have already voted by mail?

[Blair]

Am I being dense in saying that I've avoided obsessing over these numbers like we did in 2016 because the coronavirus has basically made it impossible to benchmark with previous years?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Am I being dense in saying that I've avoided obsessing over these numbers like we did in 2016 because the coronavirus has basically made it impossible to benchmark with previous years?

No, I think this is the right attitude about EV this year.  It's still interesting, but less indicative than it might have been in previous years.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

As of 3 pm, 19k have voted in Travis, leaving it about 11k shy of hitting my personal 400k total goal by the end of the day. Four more hours!

Weather caused some sites in Harris to close temporarily, but they should still be on track to hit a million by end of day.

Dems are doing what they need to in their base areas.