2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[Hnv1]

200K votes update in Minnesota. Any of our MN experts care to analyse?

[Alben Barkley]

FLORIDA


4,705,612 votes cast (mail + in-person EV)

Democratic: 2,085,559 (44.3%)
Republican: 1,659,686 (35.3%)
NPA/Other: 960,367 (20.2%)

Dem lead decreases to 425,873

~537,167 ballots were processed today

I mean, yeah it's decreasing but not by that much each day.  Wasn't the highest Democratic lead like 470k? 

Exactly, I don't get the thinking of how "The GOP is surging!" when yes, they are outvoting in EV, but Dems are still seeing a massive lead-in in mail ins, and with nearly 5M votes in right now, Dems are still up +426K which is massive.

We've talked about how Dems really just need to break even with the GOP, so the GOP really has a long way to go to catch up 426K behind.

considering that GOP will win  the ED very big, 426K is not enough for dems. 

The latest Florida poll has the remaining vote (ie haven’t vote early yet but will along with ED voters) going 60/40 Trump which isn’t a big enough split to make up 426k

And I like how everyone’s just completely ignoring the fact that Biden is likely winning independents (is according to the polls), meaning the actual difference is significantly higher.

[Alben Barkley]

The PA #s continue to be absolutely insane.

Dems 1,023,402 (70.6%)
Reps 293,318 (20.2%)
Other 132,680 (9.2%)
= 1,449,400

Dem lead now +730K (was +684K yesterday)

https://twitter.com/aabramson/status/1319650608916344832

But I was told (by someone who very obviously does not know how Florida votes or how to analyze early voting numbers) that Biden was doomed because of the early vote numbers in Florida.

[T0rM3nTeD]

Plus, you can assume some NeverTrump Republicans are still registered as R but top of the ticket will be abstaining/voting 3rd party/voting Biden. I can't imagine that there's many registered D's that will be voting Trump.

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

PA returns as of yesterday were overwhelmingly urban. Little change today (urban down to 33.9%) Consequently, Biden still has a huge lead. Trump needs big rural turnout on election day to counteract this.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Plus, you can assume some NeverTrump Republicans are still registered as R but top of the ticket will be abstaining/voting 3rd party/voting Biden. I can't imagine that there's many registered D's that will be voting Trump.

Quite a few ancestral Democrats in the south and these days midwest.

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

Plus, you can assume some NeverTrump Republicans are still registered as R but top of the ticket will be abstaining/voting 3rd party/voting Biden. I can't imagine that there's many registered D's that will be voting Trump.

Never Trump republicans are far fewer than working class democrat Trump supporters. Outside the world of DC think tanks and National Review, Republicans tend to like Trump (maybe not as a person, but his policies at least). This isn't 1992. Trump got 94% of the GOP primary vote.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

People could've just been like me from the get-go (rational; normal) and banked on Florida being a Trump/GOP state regardless - just like it was in 2018 for Desatan and Voldemort in a Democratic wave - and not lose their collective s[inks]t over one Safe GOP state potentially voting for the GOP, thinking it somehow is the ballgame for the Presidency.

If your name isn't Barack Obama or Nikki Fried, your chances of winning FL are well under that of a coinflip. Deal with it, etc.

Yeah, I think the positive mindset for Democrats to approach Florida is to always just assume the Republican will win, and be pleasantly surprised if a Democrat does pull it out. Life is just better that way that stressing about it.

Texas is much more interesting.

[swf541]

Plus, you can assume some NeverTrump Republicans are still registered as R but top of the ticket will be abstaining/voting 3rd party/voting Biden. I can't imagine that there's many registered D's that will be voting Trump.

Never Trump republicans are far fewer than working class democrat Trump supporters. Outside the world of DC think tanks and National Review, Republicans tend to like Trump (maybe not as a person, but his policies at least). This isn't 1992. Trump got 94% of the GOP primary vote.

Yes lets ignore the senior voters many of whom are likely registered R, especially in florida the GOP told to effectively to go die in a ditch for the sake of the dollar...

[New York En Marche!]

No early votes in NY? Or are they still counting the dem primaries...

Early voting here starts tomorrow, and I don't think they're reporting absentees (though people I know have submitted them and they've been accepted)

Also maybe important to note that in New York you can show up on election day to override a previous absentee vote, which might prevent them from being able to release early tallies

[TopShelfGoal]

PA is the state where Trump and the state GOP probably wishes they hadn't attacked vote by mail so much. Looking at the returns that is where Trump's attacks on VBM have impacted GOP votes the most (and to a lesser extent IA). Amplifying that is that PA technically doesn't have EV in the traditional sense and you "Early Vote" by dropping off your mail ballot. GOP voters will most likey cut the current lopsided margins as they start to catch up to the Ds in the return rate but still...

Not saying Trump can't win there but they have left a huge lift for election which maynot be easy as non senior WWC voters are not terribly reliable or consistent voters. It likely doesn't change much in a lopsided election but could be critical on the margins if PA is a 1-2 point final result.

[TopShelfGoal]

If TX keeps up this pace they might exceed 2016 turnout by this time next week.

Really would like to see better turnout in rural hispanic areas. Hopefully we see those counties spike this weekend with voters voting after attending church services.

[libertpaulian]

If TX keeps up this pace they might exceed 2016 turnout by this time next week.

Really would like to see better turnout in rural hispanic areas. Hopefully we see those counties spike this weekend with voters voting after attending church services.

Too bad Hispanic churches don't have a robust "Souls to the Polls" tradition like African-American ones do.

[mijan]

https://twitter.com/IowaSOS/status/1319677467452411904?s=20

[Gass3268]

Remaining voters in Florida lean Biden

https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/1319680628871352320?s=21

[Storr]

TX is now at 65.5% of 2016. Will be no problem blowing past 75% by the end of the week (if not by the end of Friday).

Plus, of the four large suburban counties that have been producing absolutely absurd turnout....

*clears throat*

continue to do so:

Collin          80% of 2016
Denton       83% of 2016
Williamson  83% of 2016
Hays           86% of 2016

Update:

Collin          86% of 2016
Denton       89% of 2016
Williamson  88% of 2016
Hays           91% of 2016

[forsythvoter]

This also implies the independent vote in FL is going Democratic by a pretty large margin.

Remaining voters in Florida lean Biden

https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/1319680628871352320?s=21

[Gass3268]

This also implies the independent vote in FL is going Democratic by a pretty large margin.

Remaining voters in Florida lean Biden

https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/1319680628871352320?s=21

Which should shock no one.

[Non Swing Voter]

We need to stop obsessing over some arbitrary Dem-Rep difference number for Florida.  All about Turnout.  Only 74.5% of Dems showed up in 2016 vs 81.2% of Repubs....that was the ballgame.

Here is where we are after this morning's update from the Florida SOS.

This chart provides Turnout to date by Party, where they were at the end of all EV in 2016 and what the Final Turnout numbers were.   Dems are way ahead of where they were last time with 10 days of EV left.

We need a tracker like this updated daily if possible!  Wonderful and useful image!

[Non Swing Voter]

Global comment: have the board bed wetters considered that the top secret GOP get out the vote machine might be bulls*** like everything else the Republicans say?  We are deep into early voting and yes more Republicans are turning out because a large chunk of Democratic voters have already voted.  But the GOP turnout isn't amazing by any stretch, Democrats are keeping pace in a lot of areas.  If they had such a robust turnout operation there is no reason they wouldn't be turning their people out right now.

[mijan]

DEMS advantage is somewhat stalled at 137k votes in Iowa compare to yesterday.

Dems again lost lead in IA 4 and their lead have come down to 1468

However, Dems are keep going hard in other three districts.

685234 people  have voted early.
Another  17 k people  have  requested early ballots today

Rep have cut Dem's lead in requested ballot to 153 k from  156 k in last 10 days .
However , I think  it is too late for GOP.

I think about 60-65 % people will vote early  and if Dems able to keep  150 k vote lead then GOP in a big trouble.

[Hindsight was 2020]

The annoying part about the Doomers is the “heads I win tails you lose” mentality of freaking out overs reps doing better in EV then polling indicated but then not giving a thought to the idea that Dems might turnout on ED better then polling indicates

[ultraviolet]

Remaining voters in Florida lean Biden

https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/1319680628871352320?s=21

What does this mean

[CellarDoor]

Remaining voters in Florida lean Biden

https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/1319680628871352320?s=21

What does this mean

I found it confusing too, but I think it means that Biden's vote share in the three categories significantly outpaces the percentage of Democratic voters, meaning that Biden is winning large chunks of Independents and some Republicans.

[Alben Barkley]

Remaining voters in Florida lean Biden

https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/1319680628871352320?s=21

LOL

Lurker, get back in here so we can all make fun of you!