Georgia 2020 Redistricting Discussion

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

GA 02 numbers?

About Biden +10 or 11

Phew. Lfromnj was right

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

GA-7 has a PVI of R+24 same as Loudermilk.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-2022-maps/georgia/republican_proposal/

[Skill and Chance]

GA 02 numbers?

About Biden +10 or 11

Phew. Lfromnj was right

Biden+10 in an inelastic area is clearly enough for Dems in 2022-24, but this is a plausible VA HoD style GOP flip by the end of the decade.  Also note they did keep it at 51% black VAP.

They clearly did enough with GA-06 here for the short term at Trump+15, but for the longer term, note GA-11 is also only Trump +15.

GA-01 (the seat with Savannah) shed some inland near unanimous R counties and went from Trump+12 to Trump+10.  Could be some long term risk there.

[Roll Roons]

DRA link: https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::bb849587-97f6-4d99-afe1-cd8dc3b4e69d

GA-06 is obviously a Safe R flip in 2022. But I do wonder if it could be vulnerable down the line, especially if (god forbid) Trump runs and wins again. Same with GA-11.

[Nyvin]

North Fulton and Forsyth are both stampeding left (I think some of the fastest trends in the country), even Dawson swung left from 2016 to 2020.   I don't think the GA-6 will last the decade.  

Of course they have to include Cobb county in GA-14.

[Skill and Chance]

North Fulton and Forsyth are both stampeding left (I think some of the fastest trends in the country), even Dawson swung left from 2016 to 2020.   I don't think the GA-6 will last the decade. 

GA-2 is about Biden+10.

GA-06 and GA-11 could both flip in the next GOP president midterm, but they could also pick up GA-02 by the end of the decade.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Would it be wise for McBath to carpetbag to GA-13 and challenge Scott? I think so.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Would it be wise for McBath to carpetbag to GA-13 and challenge Scott? I think so.

She should run for Governor, Abrams seems to be sitting it out

[Nyvin]

Another vulnerable district in this is GA-12,  only Trump+10 and has all of the Augusta metro.   That's not going to be safe for the decade either.

[GALeftist]

Another vulnerable district in this is GA-12,  only Trump+10 and has all of the Augusta metro.   That's not going to be safe for the decade either.

I was about to say that looked a little risky. Overall a bad day for out-of-state laser eyes conservative Twitter teens

[Adam Griffin]

Interesting to see how relatively much they shored up GA-1. Coastal GA hasn't exactly been trending their way over the past decade, so I guess they decided to give it a nudge rather than tucking some of those heavily-R areas into GA-12 (which I think is basically fool's gold for Ds: Richmond and Columbia combined aren't growing fast enough to counter the lean this decade).

[lfromnj]

Probably should be the final map, Kemp will probably ask for North Atlanta to be placed with the 6th. The mansion itself is wasted in a 85% dem district while sitting a 67% Perdue precinct.

[Nyvin]

What's kinda tragic about this map is how perfectly Cobb county is the right size for 1 congressional district and yet it gets split four ways.

[Skill and Chance]

Interesting to see how relatively much they shored up GA-1. Coastal GA hasn't exactly been trending their way over the past decade, so I guess they decided to give it a nudge rather than tucking some of those heavily-R areas into GA-12 (which I think is basically fool's gold for Ds: Richmond and Columbia combined aren't growing fast enough to counter the lean this decade).

They are obviously worried about Savannah. 

However, if those areas really start giving out at the congressional level, everything close to Atlanta is already gone and we're in AR 2011 territory..

[patzer]

I guess Lucy McBath has four options now.

1) A run for governor. Feasible, she'd have a chance.
2) Run in Bourdeaux's seat. Not ideal to have a primary there but possible.
3) Move to David Scott's seat. Probably works best if he retires but a primary could be doable.
4) Stubbornly stay in her own seat, accept the highly likely loss to presumably Karen Handel but keep trying to flip voters and make it as close as possible.

[Skill and Chance]

I guess Lucy McBath has four options now.

1) A run for governor. Feasible, she'd have a chance.
2) Run in Bourdeaux's seat. Not ideal to have a primary there but possible.
3) Move to David Scott's seat. Probably works best if he retires but a primary could be doable.
4) Stubbornly stay in her own seat, accept the highly likely loss to presumably Karen Handel but keep trying to flip voters and make it as close as possible.

She should do this.  Abrams will probably underperform generic D for the same reason Trump 2024 would underperform generic R.

[Sol]

I guess Lucy McBath has four options now.

1) A run for governor. Feasible, she'd have a chance.
2) Run in Bourdeaux's seat. Not ideal to have a primary there but possible.
3) Move to David Scott's seat. Probably works best if he retires but a primary could be doable.
4) Stubbornly stay in her own seat, accept the highly likely loss to presumably Karen Handel but keep trying to flip voters and make it as close as possible.

She should do this.  Abrams will probably underperform generic D for the same reason Trump 2024 would underperform generic R.

Why are you assuming both of these things?

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

I guess Lucy McBath has four options now.

1) A run for governor. Feasible, she'd have a chance.
2) Run in Bourdeaux's seat. Not ideal to have a primary there but possible.
3) Move to David Scott's seat. Probably works best if he retires but a primary could be doable.
4) Stubbornly stay in her own seat, accept the highly likely loss to presumably Karen Handel but keep trying to flip voters and make it as close as possible.

Handel is basically a perennial at this point

[Skill and Chance]

I guess Lucy McBath has four options now.

1) A run for governor. Feasible, she'd have a chance.
2) Run in Bourdeaux's seat. Not ideal to have a primary there but possible.
3) Move to David Scott's seat. Probably works best if he retires but a primary could be doable.
4) Stubbornly stay in her own seat, accept the highly likely loss to presumably Karen Handel but keep trying to flip voters and make it as close as possible.

She should do this.  Abrams will probably underperform generic D for the same reason Trump 2024 would underperform generic R.

Why are you assuming both of these things?

Swing voters don't like filing ridiculous lawsuits and then pretending you won an election for multiple years. 

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Georgia deserves a 7R-7D congressional map. This map only has a disproportionality of -0.21%.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/0b2e085e-451b-47c6-b567-16f5a8c4f36d

GA-1: Trump +8.02%
GA-2: Biden +11.16%
GA-3: Trump +34.73%
GA-4: Biden +67.38%
GA-5: Biden +68.12%
GA-6: Biden +14.32%
GA-7: Biden +18.4%
GA-8: Trump +35.64%
GA-9: Trump +42.31%
GA-10: Trump +34.02%
GA-11: Biden +8.32%
GA-12: Trump +8.37%
GA-13: Biden +37.47%
GA-14: Trump +57.5%

[patzer]

There is certainly a possibility for a VRA lawsuit given that another majority minority CD could easily be drawn in Atlanta and yet isn't...

You could also potentially sue to make a majority minority 12th.

[lfromnj]

There is certainly a possibility for a VRA lawsuit given that another majority minority CD could easily be drawn in Atlanta and yet isn't...

You could also potentially sue to make a majority minority 12th.

There is 0 chance of the Augusta Savanah seat happening until dems win a trifecta. Pure hope for dems. If dems were going to sue they would have sued in 2012 for that.

My guess is if this map passes , Georgia Dems will sue for a 4th black seat in Atlanta after they win the governorship . You can draw one now probably as well while only touching the 4 Dem sink Blobs so not sure why the GA GOP Doesn't just do it. It wouldn't change the partisanship of any other seats but a court might change up the map more than necessary to get that 4th black district. Waste of time to sue right now.

[S019]

There is certainly a possibility for a VRA lawsuit given that another majority minority CD could easily be drawn in Atlanta and yet isn't...

You could also potentially sue to make a majority minority 12th.

My guess is if this map passes , Georgia Dems will sue for a 4th black seat in Atlanta after they win the governorship . You can draw one now probably as well while only touching the 4 Dem sink Blobs so not sure why the GA GOP Doesn't just do it. It wouldn't change the partisanship of any other seats but a court might change up the map more than necessary to get that 4th black district. Waste of time to sue right now.

My best guess why they didn't do it is that it'd free up white parts of blue Gwinnett which would then have to be cracked

I tried this and you end up with this: https://davesredistricting.org/join/4b904aee-9df7-4fbd-9173-0fa4748d3cbf

Now these seats wouldn't be vulnerable per se, but there's a lot of rotation that needs to happen to make it work and incumbents may not be thrilled about that.

[lfromnj]

There is certainly a possibility for a VRA lawsuit given that another majority minority CD could easily be drawn in Atlanta and yet isn't...

You could also potentially sue to make a majority minority 12th.

My guess is if this map passes , Georgia Dems will sue for a 4th black seat in Atlanta after they win the governorship . You can draw one now probably as well while only touching the 4 Dem sink Blobs so not sure why the GA GOP Doesn't just do it. It wouldn't change the partisanship of any other seats but a court might change up the map more than necessary to get that 4th black district. Waste of time to sue right now.

My best guess why they didn't do it is that it'd free up white parts of blue Gwinnett which would then have to be cracked

I tried this and you end up with this: https://davesredistricting.org/join/4b904aee-9df7-4fbd-9173-0fa4748d3cbf

Now these seats wouldn't be vulnerable per se, but there's a lot of rotation that needs to happen to make it work and incumbents may not be thrilled about that.

The safest strategy is to just give Democrats something like this blob and let them divvy up the blob how they wish.

(I am merely talking about the 4 atlanta sinks and not South Georgia)

[Torie]

There is certainly a possibility for a VRA lawsuit given that another majority minority CD could easily be drawn in Atlanta and yet isn't...

You could also potentially sue to make a majority minority 12th.

I suggest you read the Gingles case because your characterization of the law  is not accurate.