Georgia 2020 Redistricting Discussion

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

I tried to make the most fairest State house map as possible and it ended up as 93 R - 87 D (2020 President) composition, not too bad tbh. I also allowed editing as well so that you can tweak it if you want.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/f9f5a173-8085-41df-a72a-aae5bd06b86f

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

I drew a pro-incumbent protected map.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/efe2a017-575a-477e-bccb-e6365828fa6d

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

I made the dummiestmander GOP map for GA. 

It's 11-3 R, but it would easily become a 8-6 D map by 2024.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/d38bdc69-2b2c-4d27-bc20-8c98a0d7085e

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Made a 10-4 Dem Gerrymander map. 

https://davesredistricting.org/join/ef9dbd5a-32be-482d-8424-299aae603456

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

I created a fair 7-7 GA map using the new 2020 pop data. In this map they're 5 AA opportunity districts. I was able to put Cobb as single county district as well.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/cb1dc2f1-51e7-4ccd-a24f-c342bc64a1b4

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Here's my attempt at a 10-4 GOP Gerrymander map.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/da9781ee-234a-4bfc-82e6-4c4c30a1de38

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Here's a plausible 9-5 R GA map. (2020 Election data)

https://davesredistricting.org/join/694f591a-0eb8-4cd7-beac-05633b171e87




Bordeaux gets drawn out.
McBath gets a dem sink.
Districts 7, 9, 10, 11 and 14 takes in some part of Atlanta.
They're 10 Minority opportunity seats and 4 AA potential seats.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

How likely is it that a certain individual who shall not be named actually gets part of Cobb?

Definately. GA-14 has a lot of R votes to shed, and can take in northern Cobb without putting it in immediate danger. Infact, I'd argue if the GOP doesn't, they're probably making a dummymander.

My 14th district goes all the into Fulton County. This hypotheicical disitrct went from Trump +32.2% in 2016 to Kemp 27.5% in 2018 to Trump 22.1% in 2020. A swing of 10.1% in just 4 years!

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Here is my 2nd version of a 8-6 R map. Based on 2020 Prez numbers.

McBath and Bordeaux districts turn into safe D sinks.

GA-2 extends further east into the GA Black belt.

GA-9 & GA-10 switches places as Hice runs for the GA SOS against Rathensburger, thus the new GA-10 becomes a new open R seat in NE GA that takes in part of "Milton County"

GA-11 & GA-14 takes in part of the rapidly dem trending GOP areas of Cobb County. Trump won these two districts by massive 38.9% and 41.7% margins respectively.

They're 4 black majority seats.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/1e3dc3ec-4da6-4556-929e-011a57a09a1a

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Here's my new 10D-4R GA Congressional nut map.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/66a1e06a-ce79-44d9-aea4-957acb7aa348

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Here's my new 10D-4R GA Congressional nut map.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/66a1e06a-ce79-44d9-aea4-957acb7aa348

What's the purpose of the extreme gerrymanders? You don't need really obvious gerrymandering like that to get a safe 10D-4R.

Lol, I'm just doing this for fun. Making gerrymandered maps are fun to make even though I absolutely hate gerrymandering to the core.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Thoughts on this 8 D - 6 R Map? The Atlanta Metro seats are very clean and compact. The rural districts were harder to be made fully compact.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/23b5b96e-273c-45bb-89b0-bab1ec70a33f

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1442601673315307521?s=21

The GOP is also surprisingly tame in GA as well for this proposed map. Only making McBath's seat more of competitive seat and Bordeaux's seat a Dem sink. I expected 9 R - 5 D map of making GA-6 a Dem sink and GA-7 a new safe R district.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

I made this kind of weird competitive mander-ish map.

GA-1: Trump +0.39%
GA-2: Biden +0.38%
GA-3: Trump +35.03%
GA-4: Biden +38.54%
GA-5: Biden +67.38%
GA-6: Biden +14.32%
GA-7: Trump +5.22%
GA-8: Trump +37.27%
GA-9: Trump +55.19%
GA-10: Biden +1.19%
GA-11: Trump +3.47%
GA-12: Trump +6.43%
GA-13: Biden +67%
GA-14: Trump +43.07%

https://davesredistricting.org/join/08272338-44f8-4c00-a5ef-3512fe822e1f

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

I tried to make the most fairest State house map as possible and it ended up as 93 R - 87 D (2020 President) composition, not too bad tbh. I also allowed editing as well so that you can tweak it if you want.

It took me several days to make a new fair map with the 2020 census data. This time my GA House map is a very fair 90D-90R Split based on the 2020 Prez data. I also have 2018 GOV and 2016 Prez data for the Atlanta Metro seats to how much it has shifted in the past 5 years.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/fd2699d1-5522-4c7a-9d69-b1dde9a07eb9

2020 Prez


2020 Prez


2018 Gov


2016 Prez

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

I was able to make a fair 29D-27R Dem majority State Senate based on 2020 Prez numbers. I also have 2016 Prez, 2018 Gov and 2020 Prez up close for the Atlanta Metro seats to see how rapidly politcally that area is changing.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/ad5e72bb-3682-47c2-b7cc-27a6dcb00e36



2016 Prez


2018 Gov


2020 Prez

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

The GA Dem proposed map is 7-7. There's a new safe Dem seat in NW part of Atlanta.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-2022-maps/georgia/dem_proposal/

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

GA-7 has a PVI of R+24 same as Loudermilk.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-2022-maps/georgia/republican_proposal/

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Would it be wise for McBath to carpetbag to GA-13 and challenge Scott? I think so.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Georgia deserves a 7R-7D congressional map. This map only has a disproportionality of -0.21%.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/0b2e085e-451b-47c6-b567-16f5a8c4f36d

GA-1: Trump +8.02%
GA-2: Biden +11.16%
GA-3: Trump +34.73%
GA-4: Biden +67.38%
GA-5: Biden +68.12%
GA-6: Biden +14.32%
GA-7: Biden +18.4%
GA-8: Trump +35.64%
GA-9: Trump +42.31%
GA-10: Trump +34.02%
GA-11: Biden +8.32%
GA-12: Trump +8.37%
GA-13: Biden +37.47%
GA-14: Trump +57.5%

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Sorry should’ve been more specific. You can draw a vra compliant map with three Dems seats, but without extreme gerrymandering it’s hard to create multiple safe seats for democrats.

That's more down to bad geography than the VRA; too many dems locked up in 60% R areas in Greenville, Spartanburg, and Rock Hill with no clean way to put them in a dem/competitive district (at least with 7 districts; my 11 district CRR map has a lean R Greenville/Spartanburg district).

Your 7-7 map is somewhat different from mine as you made a lean D seat in Augusta and a lean R seat in the Milton area instead of the other way around.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

I made this 7-7 map with 5 black majority seats. Based on 2020 Presidential numbers.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/b3a04b68-f133-42d6-bcce-1b7d08f176ac