Georgia 2020 Redistricting Discussion

[Adam Griffin]

Here's a (rough and quick) DRA map for the proposed map:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/562af443-7138-4fff-89f6-125cc37df399

[mpbond]

Everyones talking about Suburban Atlanta, but I'm curious about that 12th. Anyone got estimates on that?

I think its about Trump +10

Racial polarization in that area probably still puts it just out of reach for dems, but thats odd that they didn't make that more safe either

[Roll Roons]

Personally, I would have given GA-11 all of Bartow and maybe some of those rural counties from GA-14 while pushing the GA-11's Cobb precincts into GA-14. That would keep the former safe while unpacking the latter and hopefully making you-know-who more vulnerable in a primary.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Everyones talking about Suburban Atlanta, but I'm curious about that 12th. Anyone got estimates on that?

54-55% Trump

[Gass3268]

I remember when all the Conservative ET kids said they would dismantle GA-02.

[Adam Griffin]

Initial observations:

GA-2: Democrats may be in trouble once Bishop retires. Biden only won this district by 7.

GA-6: Likely won't take long to flip back (if it indeed goes R in 2022). Was Trump +19 in 2016, Kemp +14 in 2018, Trump +6 in 2020...

GA-11: Big mid-to-late decade pickup opportunity. Loudermilk's position got weaker. Trump only carried this district by 12 points in 2020. Kemp won it by 18 and Trump won it 23 points in 2016.

GA-12: Almost a restoration of the competitiveness we saw during the Obama years with John Barrow (Trump +10 in 2020). Likely won't be competitive in a true sense, however.

[Sol]

If McBath doesn't want to run in a GOP-friendly GA-06 she could pop over to GA-13, which is near Marietta and has David Scott, who nearly lost his primary in 2020.

[patzer]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1442605253078093828

It's possible that if this map passes we could see a little back and forth- Karen Handel winning the district back in 2022, only to lose it again to McBath in 2024.

[Adam Griffin]

8-6 seems like the most likely outcome by the end of the decade.

If we assume Bishop retires and trends continue in GA-2, we'll likely lose the seat at some point - but we'll likely pick up GA-6 by that time (or potentially sooner, assuming Bishop stays for another couple of terms) - or maybe we'll never lose it in the first place. That'd leave us with the proposed 9-5 as of now (or potentially 8-6 if McBath holds on).

But from there, it's all pickup opportunities for Democrats. What happens in GA-11 over the next 4-6 years will be key. There could also be a perfect storm scenario in GA-12 (Barrow-style) that allows a Democrat to hold respectable numbers among the rurals while enjoying demographic shifts in the Augusta metro and sneak into office. If both of those things happened post-Bishop retiremenet, we'd be looking at 7-7. But I do think 8-6 is where gravity will settle sooner or later.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1442605253078093828

It's possible that if this map passes we could see a little back and forth- Karen Handel winning the district back in 2022, only to lose it again to McBath in 2024.

I wonder how McBath's proposed new 6th went in the Senate runoffs.

[Stuart98]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1442605253078093828

It's possible that if this map passes we could see a little back and forth- Karen Handel winning the district back in 2022, only to lose it again to McBath in 2024.

I wonder how McBath's proposed new 6th went in the Senate runoffs.

Something like Perdue +10, Loeffler +8.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1442605253078093828

It's possible that if this map passes we could see a little back and forth- Karen Handel winning the district back in 2022, only to lose it again to McBath in 2024.

I wonder how McBath's proposed new 6th went in the Senate runoffs.

Something like Perdue +10, Loeffler +8.

Under these numbers, I would have to consider McBath favored to lose in 2022, though it would probably flip back either in 2024 or 2026.

[Adam Griffin]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1442605253078093828

It's possible that if this map passes we could see a little back and forth- Karen Handel winning the district back in 2022, only to lose it again to McBath in 2024.

I wonder how McBath's proposed new 6th went in the Senate runoffs.

Map is linked above. Trump +6, Loeffler +9 and Perdue +11.

[Adam Griffin]

Anyway, I don't think McBath is as doomed as some think. She's certainly not going to lose by more than 5 points unless this midterm is apocalyptic for Democrats. From AAD:

While it covers different terrain, it's more or less the same general area in terms of trends (if not better in this regard long-term). Biden won the current GA-6 by 11; McBath by 9.

Assuming a similar underperformance (2 points) relative to whomever shows up who would be "Biden voters" in 2022 and coupling the facts that 1) McBath is an incumbent and 2) that the proposed CD has been shifting around *3 points per year in favor of Democrats* for the better part of a decade, it's hard at this point to envision a McBath loss greater than 5 points.

While they've proposed this CD to be more Republican in a contemporary sense, they've also basically drawn in some of the most high-growth/D-trending areas in the metro based on 2018, 2020 and 2021 runoff results. If it falls, it's very likely this district flips back in 2024 - and they've potentially made CD-11 vulnerable mid-to-late decade in the process (rather than just cutting their short-term losses, letting McBath have a D-leaning vote-sink in the 6th, locking in 10 years of GOP representation in the 11th, and guaranteeing the 8-6 map they currently have while potentially picking up GA-2 when Bishop retires and making it 9-5).
^^^
Basically: a district that in 2020 would have been Handel +8:

- 4-6 points of D improvement over 2 years
- D incumbency factor (~1 pt)
- the final year of intense AVR effects*
+ national climate

= ? ? ?

*GA AVR is entering its 5th year: in GA, you can renew DLs every 5 or 8 years; it costs $4 per year to renew regardless (minus 20% discount if done online), so $12 more to renew for 8 years as opposed to 5; whose voters do you think disproportionately choose 5-year licenses and therefore are being picked up via AVR for the first time since implementation?

[Horus]

With the way Forsyth is trending, McBath can easily win her new district. This map could've been a lot worse.

The 7th crossing over into Fulton is also very weird.

[Adam Griffin]

With the way Forsyth is trending, McBath can easily win her new district. This map could've been a lot worse.

The 7th crossing over into Fulton is also very weird.

IIRC, that part of Fulton (Johns Creek) has been swinging D at a lightning pace since 2016 (thanks, Asians!). I can see why they would want to keep it out of their proposed 6th and dump it into the (at least for the next 6 months) plurality-white D vote-sink.

[Adam Griffin]

Also, hot take: Bourdeaux isn't "safe" in this newly-proposed 7th. I suppose it depends on what you consider safe, but just look at these figures:



In a presidential year Democratic primary, this is likely closer to a 50% black, 25% white, 25% other electorate. In a midterm primary, it'll skew more white (for now) - but with each passing year, the demographics in Gwinnett continue to accelerate against whites at an almost unbelievable speed.

If the right black candidate and/or enough black voters decide they want a more representative representative, then goodbye Boring Bourdeaux. Of course, the non-black constituencies might also band together behind a more progressive Latino or Asian candidate and have a similar chance at primarying her.

[Stuart98]

Yeah, she gets a safe D district with this map and I think we've had enough of blue dogs in safe D districts as of late.

[Stuart98]

The map we'd get if Georgia Rs were smart:

[Bacon King]

I gave my initial thoughts on the Senate Draft to Adam Griffin and a few others on discord yesterday, but now I finally have time to sit down and take a good look at it so I'll offer my thoughts here as well.

Frankly I have no idea what the State Senate is thinking. Honestly it's as if an intern accidentally attached the wrong image to the press release and what we're all looking at is actually just a discarded sketch from early in the design process

They literally didn't even take incumbent residency into account! When I first saw that Bordeaux lives in Clyde's district and McBath lives in Loudermilk's district I assumed the committee was just being petty, or perhaps just didn't care about Democratic incumbents. But no, it happened to Republicans too: Clyde now lives in the district of Jody Hice while Loudermilk is represented by MTG!

This map honestly looks closer to something I'd expect to see from an independent commission, not a creation of Republican officeholders. Honestly this map would only need a few relatively minor changes to become something I'd genuinely consider fair (mostly just keeping the suburbs and exurbs in different districts)


Honestly the only part of this map that actually appears to be an effective GOP gerrymander is, surprisingly, the 2nd District. It's designed so it's juuuust safe enough to reliably re-elect Sanford Bishop, thereby adhering to VRA case law, but when Bishop retires it becomes a tossup and definitely winnable by a Republican. From a strictly technical point of view it's honestly kind of clever: they've managed to create a mandatory black VRA district that will probably elect a Republican in at least 1 of the next 5 elections with little-to-no risk from a lawsuit against it

[Oryxslayer]

Honestly the only part of this map that actually appears to be an effective GOP gerrymander is, surprisingly, the 2nd District. It's designed so it's juuuust safe enough to reliably re-elect Sanford Bishop, thereby adhering to VRA case law, but when Bishop retires it becomes a tossup and definitely winnable by a Republican. From a strictly technical point of view it's honestly kind of clever: they've managed to create a mandatory black VRA district that will probably elect a Republican in at least 1 of the next 5 elections with little-to-no risk from a lawsuit against it

Apparently GA-02 isn't majority black, and given the block voting in that regions, this version of GA-02 won't pass the VRA smell test. Will have to grab more AA's from the eastern Belt, so yet another reason why the map seems so slapped-together, and if it is the direction perused (unlikely), then things will have to change.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Just a reminder y’all this ain’t necessarily the final map

[Skill and Chance]

The map we'd get if Georgia Rs were smart:

Someone clearly objected to drawing the northern mountain CDs into Atlanta.  That's my biggest takeaway from this, even if it gets tweaked significantly. 

[Bacon King]

They didn't baconstrip Appalachia.

Indeed. As I said earlier in this thread, the GA GOP has never done that sort of thing and they've not really given any indication that they're going to start now

(not that they've ever done... whatever the hell this new congressional map is, either)

Wait... Lt. Gov Duncan and Senator WHAT?

The fact that we have our very own SENATOR JOHN F. KENNEDY never ceases to amuse me

I remember when all the Conservative ET kids said they would dismantle GA-02.

While that was obviously never going to happen, this subtle gerrymander they're doing with the 2nd district is even worse because it could actually hold up in court

So why did they give Bordeaux a safe seat but not McBath? I guess the Republican logic is that they don't like having a black woman represent a white traditionally Republican district like GA-06. Whereas at least Bordeaux is white, so from their perspective she is more tolerable. But if voters in GA-06 get too used to voting for McBath, next thing you know they'll be voting for Stacey Abrams as well, and can't have all those black women running around with so much power.

IMO attributing it to race is very much overthinking it - the "Republican logic" here is nothing more than geographic necessity.

I explain it in more detail in my map prediction post earlier in this thread, but the tl;dr is that without bacon-stripping Appalachia, basically any GOP-friendly congressional map will require a non-VRA Dem vote sink in Gwinnett County. They didn't decide to favor Boudreaux over McBath because it wasn't even a choice in the first place - Boudreaux's safe seat was pretty much inevitable.

Basically the only options on the table are as follows:

a) 3 Dem seats in the metro. Neither Bourdeaux nor McBath get a district, GOP wins back both seats by drawing a bunch of snakes that extend from the suburbs to the mountains

b) 4 Dem seats in the metro. A fourth Dem vote sink joins the three black-majority VRA seats. Gwinnett is too big and racially diverse to contain a VRA district so it gets the new seat. Bourdeaux gets it since her current district is Gwinnett-based

c) 5 Dem seats in the metro. Both sophomore Democrats get safe seats. Republicans permanently surrender both seats but keep every incumbent safe for the decade.

Giving a district to McBath but not Bourdeaux would require them to draw some weird districts. If they were willing to do that the question would be moot, because they would then have no reservations drawing districts that got rid of both of them

[_.]

Thoughts on this 8 D - 6 R Map? The Atlanta Metro seats are very clean and compact. The rural districts were harder to be made fully compact.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/23b5b96e-273c-45bb-89b0-bab1ec70a33f

This is the most aesthetically pleasing map 8D-6R I've seen, and I find it very interesting how you managed two D seats outside metro Atlanta. Must've taken some creativity!