WI-SEN 2022 Megathread: Who stole my cheese?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Does anyone know why Johnson so heavily outran Trump in WoW in 2016? He had a slight underperformance pretty much everywhere else in the state but his overperformance in Milwaukee's white suburbs were really insane and really don't align with what one would expect. And when I say overperformance, I mean consistently 20 points +.

Whether or not Johnson is able to get this overperformance, or even half of it in 2022 will be really powerful in this race and Dems can't win if he gets it again even if they hold him down elsewhere.

It'd be like if Fetterman wins by underunni8nging Biden in rural PA and Allegehny, yet does even better in Chester and Montgomery counties and more generally SEPA. Wouldn't be the coalition anyone would've thought.

[Mr. Smith]

Does anyone know why Johnson so heavily outran Trump in WoW in 2016? He had a slight underperformance pretty much everywhere else in the state but his overperformance in Milwaukee's white suburbs were really insane and really don't align with what one would expect. And when I say overperformance, I mean consistently 20 points +.

Whether or not Johnson is able to get this overperformance, or even half of it in 2022 will be really powerful in this race and Dems can't win if he gets it again even if they hold him down elsewhere.

It'd be like if Fetterman wins by underunni8nging Biden in rural PA and Allegehny, yet does even better in Chester and Montgomery counties and more generally SEPA. Wouldn't be the coalition anyone would've thought.

It's not insane at all, Hillary's general campaign that year activated a lot of voters only offended by Trump personally that might well have stayed home, but then they either stayed R or didn't vote for Feingold.

For similar reasons, if Hillary had bothered more seriously to campaign in the state, Driftless probably ends up being where Feingold seriously overperforms enough to flip the state, while Hillary barely holds on...just because some

On that note, it'll be interesting to see how things vary between gubernatorial and Senate.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Does anyone know why Johnson so heavily outran Trump in WoW in 2016? He had a slight underperformance pretty much everywhere else in the state but his overperformance in Milwaukee's white suburbs were really insane and really don't align with what one would expect. And when I say overperformance, I mean consistently 20 points +.

Whether or not Johnson is able to get this overperformance, or even half of it in 2022 will be really powerful in this race and Dems can't win if he gets it again even if they hold him down elsewhere.

It'd be like if Fetterman wins by underunni8nging Biden in rural PA and Allegehny, yet does even better in Chester and Montgomery counties and more generally SEPA. Wouldn't be the coalition anyone would've thought.

It's not insane at all, Hillary's general campaign that year activated a lot of voters only offended by Trump personally that might well have stayed home, but then they either stayed R or didn't vote for Feingold.

For similar reasons, if Hillary had bothered more seriously to campaign in the state, Driftless probably ends up being where Feingold seriously overperforms enough to flip the state, while Hillary barely holds on...just because some

On that note, it'll be interesting to see how things vary between gubernatorial and Senate.

Ron Johnson hammered Hillary on Benghazi that's why he survived and he was Chairman of Intelligence Committee before D's took over and along with Grassley are still to this day Investigation of Hunter Biden if he survived and we have NC as a backup to WI it will be on account of his investigation into Hunter Biden

[ProgressiveModerate]

Does anyone know why Johnson so heavily outran Trump in WoW in 2016? He had a slight underperformance pretty much everywhere else in the state but his overperformance in Milwaukee's white suburbs were really insane and really don't align with what one would expect. And when I say overperformance, I mean consistently 20 points +.

Whether or not Johnson is able to get this overperformance, or even half of it in 2022 will be really powerful in this race and Dems can't win if he gets it again even if they hold him down elsewhere.

It'd be like if Fetterman wins by underunni8nging Biden in rural PA and Allegehny, yet does even better in Chester and Montgomery counties and more generally SEPA. Wouldn't be the coalition anyone would've thought.

It's not insane at all, Hillary's general campaign that year activated a lot of voters only offended by Trump personally that might well have stayed home, but then they either stayed R or didn't vote for Feingold.

For similar reasons, if Hillary had bothered more seriously to campaign in the state, Driftless probably ends up being where Feingold seriously overperforms enough to flip the state, while Hillary barely holds on...just because some

On that note, it'll be interesting to see how things vary between gubernatorial and Senate.

I understand that and I'm not suprised that he overperformed in WOW, just that he overperformed so heavily.

Same thing is true in Madison.

A 30-point overperformance in a highly competitive and nationalized race is very unusual these days and I can think of very few examples in recent memory, even with your Fritzpatrick and Cueller trype incumbents.

[Senator Incitatus]

It'd be like if Fetterman wins by underunni8nging Biden in rural PA and Allegehny, yet does even better in Chester and Montgomery counties and more generally SEPA. Wouldn't be the coalition anyone would've thought.

Not the thread for it and others have explained Johnson's win already, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if this is exactly what happens.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It'd be like if Fetterman wins by underunni8nging Biden in rural PA and Allegehny, yet does even better in Chester and Montgomery counties and more generally SEPA. Wouldn't be the coalition anyone would've thought.

.
He's losing 46/44 to Barnes in MQK poll
Not the thread for it and others have explained Johnson's win already, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if this is exactly what happens.

[goin bezerk]

Bernie Sanders endorsed Mandela Barnes today.

I'm somewhat surprised, since Tom Nelson is the candidate most aligned with him politically, but I guess he figured Barnes is the frontrunner and is progressive enough for him, and that he really doesn't want Lasry.

[SnowLabrador]

One thing I don't understand: Why do people keep insisting Mandela Barnes is a bad candidate for being progressive? Yes, he probably won't win, but that's more due to the national environment and Johnson's incumbency/perceived authenticity than anything else. Also, Baldwin's just as progressive and won by double digits in 2018.

[wesmoorenerd]

One thing I don't understand: Why do people keep insisting Mandela Barnes is a bad candidate for being progressive? Yes, he probably won't win, but that's more due to the national environment and Johnson's incumbency/perceived authenticity than anything else. Also, Baldwin's just as progressive and won by double digits in 2018.

I don't think he's an amazing candidate, but he's no worse than Laxalt or Budd, who blue avatars seem to think are the next coming of Christ.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tammy Baldwin beat Tommy Thompson that's how come Barnes can win and Johnson won by just 300K votes but even Nate Silver ranks WI as Lean R, and Cook is the only one that has it as Tossup, 300K votes is the same amount of votes that have statewide Provisional ballots and Johnson with the Female vote isn't gonna win every last vote as he won last time

[ProgressiveModerate]

One thing I don't understand: Why do people keep insisting Mandela Barnes is a bad candidate for being progressive? Yes, he probably won't win, but that's more due to the national environment and Johnson's incumbency/perceived authenticity than anything else. Also, Baldwin's just as progressive and won by double digits in 2018.

I think many just look to his pretty meh 2018 performance in 2018 with Evers. Also, it's not that he's a particularly bad candidate or anything but now he's running against an incumbent in what is likely to be an unfavourable environment.

[GALeftist]

One thing I don't understand: Why do people keep insisting Mandela Barnes is a bad candidate for being progressive? Yes, he probably won't win, but that's more due to the national environment and Johnson's incumbency/perceived authenticity than anything else. Also, Baldwin's just as progressive and won by double digits in 2018.

I don't think he's an amazing candidate, but he's no worse than Laxalt or Budd, who blue avatars seem to think are the next coming of Christ.

To be fair, given this crop of Senate candidates, all you can really ask for is Generic R. They're probably near the top in terms of value above replacement.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Snowlabrador doesn't realize that nothing is finalized until we vote, he thinks pre Election polls are exit polls no they're not

[SnowLabrador]

So according to FiveThirtyEight, no third-party candidates have qualified for the general election ballot. Is it too late for them to do so?

[wbrocks67]

So according to FiveThirtyEight, no third-party candidates have qualified for the general election ballot. Is it too late for them to do so?

If not, helpful to Barnes you would think.

[GeorgiaModerate]

So according to FiveThirtyEight, no third-party candidates have qualified for the general election ballot. Is it too late for them to do so?

According to Ballotpedia, the filing deadline was June 1, so yes.

[SnowLabrador]

So according to FiveThirtyEight, no third-party candidates have qualified for the general election ballot. Is it too late for them to do so?

If not, helpful to Barnes you would think.

Hopefully. I'd love to see Johnson lose, as unlikely as it may be.

[Sir Mohamed]

So according to FiveThirtyEight, no third-party candidates have qualified for the general election ballot. Is it too late for them to do so?

If not, helpful to Barnes you would think.

Yup, though it won't matter whether Barnes ends up losing 52-46.5% or 52-48%.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Barnes was winning 46/44 in the last MQK the only poll we have and Evers was beating Kleefisch 47/43 we don't get many polls from WI that's why users think it's Lean R and it's not Bernies and Warren are campaigning thru the August recess for Barnes and Fetterman

The only pollster that polls this race is MQK and it's once a month and they will poll it again

Tammy Baldwin won her race in 2012 against Tommy Thompson so it's not unusual that a socialist beat someone like Johnson and Johnson didnt win either of his races by double digits it's 3 pts like Pat Toomey did , why do you think Toomey retired he new he would be target, users don't realize if Johnson gets back in hr is moving to investigate Hunter Biden he won last time with BENGHAZI

So, Sir Muhammad thinking that Johnson is such a shoe in it will only lead to impeachment he doesn't like Hunter Biden

[NewYorkExpress]

Ron Johnson says he'll vote to codify same-sex marriage into federal law.

Republican U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson signaled Thursday that he would vote for legislation to codify same-sex marriage into federal law.

That would be a key vote as Democrats try to move the legislation through Congress.

In a statement, Johnson said he wouldn't oppose the Respect for Marriage Act if it comes up for a vote in the U.S. Senate, even though he said the bill is unnecessary.

....

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's still gonna be very tough for him to win with Evers v Michel's on the ballot intead of Kleefisch but that's we have OH Tim Ryan and Beasley are doing well Rs have 3 open seats that are very vulnerable NC, OH and PA

[MasterJedi]

Got my ballot in by mail earlier this week for Godlewski.

[MT Treasurer]

Upon seeing this thread, he had the epiphanic realization that he couldn’t win in a state like WI with a partisan voting record, which prompted him to tone down his extremism a little. Swing voters will appreciate his stance on this issue and remember it when they enter their polling place, rewarding him for softening his tone and displaying an independent streak. Lean D -> Lean R.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Upon seeing this thread, he had the epiphanic realization that he couldn’t win in a state like WI with a partisan voting record, which prompted him to tone down his extremism a little. Swing voters will appreciate his stance on this issue and remember it when they enter their polling place, rewarding him for softening his tone and displaying an independent streak. Lean D -> Lean R.

Part of it will depend upon how many other Rs vote for it. If he’s one of the few Senate Rs to do it and makes a point out of it, that could be appealing, but if half the R Senate caucus does it won’t be as powerful. Still prolly the right move on his part from an electoral standpoint.

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/danielbice/status/1551537986285756416?s=21&t=MhcktgDYJKR...