WI-SEN 2022 Megathread: Who stole my cheese?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Bernie is a Bernie Bro Socialist.

Get ready to lose dems!

This take is brought to you by the Department of Redundancy Department.

[Brittain33]

I would assume Ron Johnson is looking forward to run against the Wisconsin version of Charles Booker.

Why, because they’re both Black men? Barnes has been Lt. Governor for a full term. Booker was just a state rep.

[GALeftist]

Bernie is a Bernie Bro Socialist.

Get ready to lose dems!

Big if true

[wbrocks67]

Barnes may be a bit insulated from the "radical left" attacks since he was Lt. Gov under a pretty typical moderate Dem governor, much like with Fetterman.

It's harder to attack someone as far left or extreme when they've been serving under a moderate left governor for 4 years, and as with Wolf, Evers has been pretty unassuming. Hardly 'radical'

[Progressive Pessimist]

Barnes may be a bit insulated from the "radical left" attacks since he was Lt. Gov under a pretty typical moderate Dem governor, much like with Fetterman.

It's harder to attack someone as far left or extreme when they've been serving under a moderate left governor for 4 years, and as with Wolf, Evers has been pretty unassuming. Hardly 'radical'

Right, but Barnes is black.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

In WI Tammy Baldwin DEFEATED Tommy Thompson so all this socialist stuff is simply untrue Ron Johnson has been talking about insurrection he only won by 3 pts not 10

You know everyone still keeps going by polls and these are the same polls that flubbed the MD Gov race that had FRANCHOT winning everything isn't about polls or Approvals the maps are blank on EDay there are gonna be Upsets it's not just a 303 map it's a 538 map

It it was all about polls we wouldn't have to vote

[MillennialModerate]

Has anyone done serious poll on this race?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Has anyone done serious poll on this race?

Yes MQK had Barnes up 46/45 and Evers up 47/43 on Kleefisch and 48/40 in Michael

This race is gonna be competetive not a landslide like Walker Johnson only wins his races by 300K votes he's not heavily favorite


Just the only person to win OH by double digits is Rob Portman or Vonovich Vance isn't winning like 20

[wbrocks67]

Has anyone done serious poll on this race?

It seems pollsters are too scared to do WI again after the 2020 mishaps lol.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I know that's why everyone, except Cook got WI Lean R and with Gov race it's Tossup that's why OH despite polls is Lean R

It's a note that there are no rankings on Eday there are blank maps so going by rankings after polls again flubbed the MD Gov race or models isn't the end all be all Steve Konraki said this already and despite rankings he has NC, FL, OH, WI and PA as Tossup the only one he doesn't have is IA, MO and TX just a note Bevin was polling 44/40 like Abbott and lost on provisions ballots, Abbott can lose Beshear like Evers didn't win outright he was losing

If D's upset and win the H Abbott like Bevin is gone he is polling 44/40 like Bevin

[Koharu]

Barnes may be a bit insulated from the "radical left" attacks since he was Lt. Gov under a pretty typical moderate Dem governor, much like with Fetterman.

It's harder to attack someone as far left or extreme when they've been serving under a moderate left governor for 4 years, and as with Wolf, Evers has been pretty unassuming. Hardly 'radical'

Right, but Barnes is black.

Yep, and you'd better believe this race is going to be filled with dog-whistle racism. Milwaukee will get a lot of references, both to press the urban/rural divide but also as a dog-whistle.

I do think Barnes has done well to try to get out ahead of this issue--he's spent a lot of the last year touring the whole state, spending lots of time in rural communities and learning more about their concerns. But unfortunately the wide racial divide in Wisconsin will definitely be something groups try to leverage, mostly against him.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don't quote many users but Snowlabador gets on this thread and derails it saying it's good for Johnson for Barnes and there hasn't been a single poll showing Johnson, Laxalt or Vance up by 10, all the Rs in 2010/14 had 10 pts leads on Landrieu, Pryor and Walsh


Just like Politician they both are only 20 not 30 yet

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/TheOtherMandela/status/1554192291031572480?s=20&t=Eqmffi...

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/TheOtherMandela/status/1554192291031572480?s=20&t=Eqmffi...

It seems a pattern across the country that Democratic candidates do extremely well in terms of fundraising this cycle, despite the fundamentals of the national election.

While it certainly helps them, I don't think it changes the overall fundamentals. As for Wisconsin, Barnes remains an underdog in November, but he has a fighting chance.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/HeartlandSignal/status/1554606259596320770

Is Johnson trying to lose?

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, Johnson just handed Democrats a HUGE prize with that comment.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Rs are blocked Medicare expansion already in BBB that would of extended dental benefits, everyone is gonna get old eventually that's why R users opposing Medicare expansion like Obamacare is incorrect, I was initially opposed to Medicare expansion but 50 we get AARP, 55 we can qualify for Senior Housing and retire at 62 if you aren't a Doc, lawyer, or judge or Politician, but we aren't dying off at 65 so some work til 73 especially Teachers

50 not 62 is a senior citizen or middle age you start qualifying for senior benefits with AARP Life insurance

I was 20 before and politician and Progressive Moderate and Snowlabrador are all like 20 and don't have to get Medicare that's why they think Rs are gonna sweep us older folks know better

[SnowLabrador]

Yeah, Johnson just handed Democrats a HUGE prize with that comment.

Not necessarily. Everyone already knew that was Johnson's position.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah, Johnson just handed Democrats a HUGE prize with that comment.

Not necessarily. Everyone already knew that was Johnson's position.

They already blocked BBB that expanded Medicare Dental Benefits so it's just icing on the cake that he loses, there is no poll showing Johnson AHEAD

Why is Susan Collins blocking BBB because she doesn't want to raise a penny in taxes she will lose in 26 she kicked out in 20 because why along with Murkowski and Romney and Pelosi they passed stimulus checks to everyone now only enhanced child tax credits I lived in Cali and NEWSOM didn't give me one

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, Johnson just handed Democrats a HUGE prize with that comment.

Not necessarily. Everyone already knew that was Johnson's position.

No, "everyone" did not already know.

[Nyvin]

https://madison.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/ron-johnson-calls-for-turning-social-security-medicare-into-discretionary-spending-programs/article_5d9457a6-fd52-5c7f-9dfb-37cc0466a1c9.html

“What’s mandatory are things like Social Security and Medicare,” Johnson, R-Oshkosh, said on the “Regular Joe” show Tuesday. “If you qualify for the entitlement, you just get it no matter what the cost. And our problem in this country is that more than 70% of our federal budget, of our federal spending, is all mandatory spending. It’s on automatic pilot.

I really doubt the elderly in Wisconsin would like this at all, this is an absolutely toxic position to take.  

Attacking entitlements before an election can be a death sentence.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://madison.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/ron-johnson-calls-for-turning-social-security-medicare-into-discretionary-spending-programs/article_5d9457a6-fd52-5c7f-9dfb-37cc0466a1c9.html

I really doubt the elderly in Wisconsin would like this at all, this is an absolutely toxic position to take. 

Attacking entitlements before an election can be a death sentence.

Did Johnson hold different positions in 2010 and 2016?

For sure not helpful, I just remain skeptical whether this unseats him in an environment like this is probably going to be.

[wbrocks67]

https://madison.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/ron-johnson-calls-for-turning-social-security-medicare-into-discretionary-spending-programs/article_5d9457a6-fd52-5c7f-9dfb-37cc0466a1c9.html

I really doubt the elderly in Wisconsin would like this at all, this is an absolutely toxic position to take. 

Attacking entitlements before an election can be a death sentence.

Did Johnson hold different positions in 2010 and 2016?

For sure not helpful, I just remain skeptical whether this unseats him in an environment like this is probably going to be.

But what is that environment though? People need to stop assuming this is going to be some automatic red wave when this year seems incredibly evident that a lot of these races are going to be more contextual and situational than overarching.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://madison.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/ron-johnson-calls-for-turning-social-security-medicare-into-discretionary-spending-programs/article_5d9457a6-fd52-5c7f-9dfb-37cc0466a1c9.html

I really doubt the elderly in Wisconsin would like this at all, this is an absolutely toxic position to take. 

Attacking entitlements before an election can be a death sentence.

Did Johnson hold different positions in 2010 and 2016?

For sure not helpful, I just remain skeptical whether this unseats him in an environment like this is probably going to be.

But what is that environment though? People need to stop assuming this is going to be some automatic red wave when this year seems incredibly evident that a lot of these races are going to be more contextual and situational than overarching.

Well, 2016 was still kind of neutral year and RoJo went on winning regardless by a few points, contrary to polls. For sure I'm not in the "muh 2016 and 2020 polls were off" camp, though fundamentals tend to favor him. Even if we assume 2022 will only be a red ripple or somewhat neutral. Biden just barely won WI and even Walker, in the 2018 blue wave, still came very close. And Barnes, as much as I'd like to see him winning, is not exactly as strong as Fetterman for example.

Just don't want to get my hopes up early. Definitely would enjoy to see Johnson losing. He's a horrible senator.

[wbrocks67]

https://madison.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/ron-johnson-calls-for-turning-social-security-medicare-into-discretionary-spending-programs/article_5d9457a6-fd52-5c7f-9dfb-37cc0466a1c9.html

I really doubt the elderly in Wisconsin would like this at all, this is an absolutely toxic position to take. 

Attacking entitlements before an election can be a death sentence.

Did Johnson hold different positions in 2010 and 2016?

For sure not helpful, I just remain skeptical whether this unseats him in an environment like this is probably going to be.

But what is that environment though? People need to stop assuming this is going to be some automatic red wave when this year seems incredibly evident that a lot of these races are going to be more contextual and situational than overarching.

Well, 2016 was still kind of neutral year and RoJo went on winning regardless by a few points, contrary to polls. For sure I'm not in the "muh 2016 and 2020 polls were off" camp, though fundamentals tend to favor him. Even if we assume 2022 will only be a red ripple or somewhat neutral. Biden just barely won WI and even Walker, in the 2018 blue wave, still came very close. And Barnes, as much as I'd like to see him winning, is not exactly as strong as Fetterman for example.

Just don't want to get my hopes up early. Definitely would enjoy to see Johnson losing. He's a horrible senator.

I get that. Johnson has incumbency going for him which is powerful. It just really feels as if people are incredibly overestimating him as a candidate, even in a harder year for Ds.