WI-SEN 2022 Megathread: Who stole my cheese?

[Sir Mohamed]

I am assuming that Johnson is likely going to announce that he's not going to run again.

Why? All of his recent political commentary would indicate he's gearing up for another culture war-driven election campaign.

Yup. Let's just hope Dems can nominate a good candidate to vote this dude out of office. He's horrible.

[Sir Mohamed]

As is almost always the case in WI, the national environment will tell the tale (although I maintain Barnes is a weak enough candidate that he’d underperform by a few points even in a good year).  That really tells you all you need to know about who will win.

I wouldn't be that shocked to see Johnson winning reelection in a Trump midterms, tbh. Even while Dems gain seats elsewhere.

[Sir Mohamed]

Johnson probably wins by 1-4 points this time....

If Barnes is his opponent, he probably runs "dog whistles" and he runs the Darnell Brooks case on him....if it is Lasry, he runs the rich liberal billionaire card....

Wisconsin is a battleground state.

Stop with this John's son is gonna win, he won by a small amount of points last time and this state was won by Joe Biden in 2020


Barnes is just as liberal as Baldwin and WARNOCK and they both won

What has Warnock to do with this? And Baldwin is an incumbent who ran against a weak opponent in a Blue Wave environment or, in 2012, when Obama was on ballot. Race is Lean R at least.

[Sir Mohamed]

So according to FiveThirtyEight, no third-party candidates have qualified for the general election ballot. Is it too late for them to do so?

If not, helpful to Barnes you would think.

Yup, though it won't matter whether Barnes ends up losing 52-46.5% or 52-48%.

[Sir Mohamed]

Morning Consult approval ratings have been a bit dubious, but in the new Q2 senate report, should be noted that he had nearly the worst net approval rating of all 50 senators at -16 (37/53). He was only beat by McConnell (-31).

If that # is anywhere near close, he's in big trouble, even in this environment.

I wouldn't bank too much on approvals. Going by that, Biden would be headed for a >35 states loss, which would not happen even for polarization alone.

Tbh, I expect polls to be similar to 2016, showing a competitive race or Johnson down before it's pretty much a tie in October, giving Dems some hope, and then we wake up Nov. 9 with Johnson having won 52-47%.

Lean R.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://madison.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/ron-johnson-calls-for-turning-social-security-medicare-into-discretionary-spending-programs/article_5d9457a6-fd52-5c7f-9dfb-37cc0466a1c9.html

I really doubt the elderly in Wisconsin would like this at all, this is an absolutely toxic position to take. 

Attacking entitlements before an election can be a death sentence.

Did Johnson hold different positions in 2010 and 2016?

For sure not helpful, I just remain skeptical whether this unseats him in an environment like this is probably going to be.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://madison.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/ron-johnson-calls-for-turning-social-security-medicare-into-discretionary-spending-programs/article_5d9457a6-fd52-5c7f-9dfb-37cc0466a1c9.html

I really doubt the elderly in Wisconsin would like this at all, this is an absolutely toxic position to take. 

Attacking entitlements before an election can be a death sentence.

Did Johnson hold different positions in 2010 and 2016?

For sure not helpful, I just remain skeptical whether this unseats him in an environment like this is probably going to be.

But what is that environment though? People need to stop assuming this is going to be some automatic red wave when this year seems incredibly evident that a lot of these races are going to be more contextual and situational than overarching.

Well, 2016 was still kind of neutral year and RoJo went on winning regardless by a few points, contrary to polls. For sure I'm not in the "muh 2016 and 2020 polls were off" camp, though fundamentals tend to favor him. Even if we assume 2022 will only be a red ripple or somewhat neutral. Biden just barely won WI and even Walker, in the 2018 blue wave, still came very close. And Barnes, as much as I'd like to see him winning, is not exactly as strong as Fetterman for example.

Just don't want to get my hopes up early. Definitely would enjoy to see Johnson losing. He's a horrible senator.

[Sir Mohamed]

According to Wikipedia, Barnes won the primary with 78% of the vote.

https://twitter.com/TheOtherMandela/status/1557181083577454593

[Sir Mohamed]

It's really giving "low energy crazy grandpa spouting off crazy stuff to neighbors"

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1564032723739721729

Liddle Ron Johnson, who is TRAILING in polls (even Trashfalgar!) and was caught pretending to be on a fake phone call, recently had a "rally" with VERY SMALL CROWD and gave a LOW ENERGY SPEECH. ZERO ENTHUSIASM, SAD! Vote for @theothermandela, he will codify Roe, is strong for Veterans and SUPPORTS OUR GREAT FBI, which the Radical Right want to defund! MANDELA IS 100% with us!

[Sir Mohamed]

Oop!

https://twitter.com/GasBuddyGuy/status/1578168426891284480

Fiscal responsibility? Dude, you must be kidding.

Also, where's your plan to lower gas prices? What legislation do you intend to introduce and get done while Biden is still in the WH? And why haven't you done that already? These are the questions I'd like Barnes or any reporter to ask Johnson. Spoiler: He can't answer any of them.

[Sir Mohamed]

This race is over. Barnes would be lucky to keep it within 5 points.

I wouldn't say it's over and I think Barnes will come well within 5 pts., he's just a clear underdog. Over the summer I thought he may have a chance, but that hope has vanished. Johnson lately gained the upper again, though he most likely was never going to lose. Expecting him to win by 2-3 pts.

[Sir Mohamed]

So RoJo has this in the bag and we're getting 51 seats at best?

[Sir Mohamed]

Given how close it was in the end, another candidate may actually have won. Am I the only one seeing this as a missed opportunity?