2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[Frenchrepublican]

https://twitter.com/PolarBarrett/status/1214577843616833538?s=20

[MT Treasurer]

UT-04 is probably the most overrated pick-up opportunity for the GOP.

[Gracile]

TX-21: Wendy Davis (D) raised over $900K in Q4

https://mobile.twitter.com/TexasTribAbby/status/1214647048873619456

[SnowLabrador]

https://twitter.com/PolarBarrett/status/1214577843616833538?s=20

Tilt R.

[windjammer]

UT-04: Ben McAdams raised around $900K in Q4

https://utahpolicy.com/index.php/features/today-at-utah-policy/22584-campaign-sources-mcadams-raised-nearly-1-million-in-campaign-cash-has-nearly-2-million-in-the-bank

Yeah, I doubt that republicans will take back this district next year especially with Trump lukewarm approval rate in Utah

It would be safer for republicans to make a Salt lake dem vote sink next decade.

[Frenchrepublican]

https://twitter.com/PolarBarrett/status/1214577843616833538?s=20

Tilt R.

Money is not everything (ask Senator Beto O’Rourke)

[Frenchrepublican]

UT-04: Ben McAdams raised around $900K in Q4

https://utahpolicy.com/index.php/features/today-at-utah-policy/22584-campaign-sources-mcadams-raised-nearly-1-million-in-campaign-cash-has-nearly-2-million-in-the-bank

Yeah, I doubt that republicans will take back this district next year especially with Trump lukewarm approval rate in Utah

It would be safer for republicans to make a Salt lake dem vote sink next decade.

Why ? The other districts are safe and should remain so, it’s not that Utah is becoming a progressive state, it’s just that Trump brand of republicanism is not attracting mormons

[Libertas Vel Mors]

UT-04: Ben McAdams raised around $900K in Q4

https://utahpolicy.com/index.php/features/today-at-utah-policy/22584-campaign-sources-mcadams-raised-nearly-1-million-in-campaign-cash-has-nearly-2-million-in-the-bank

Yeah, I doubt that republicans will take back this district next year especially with Trump lukewarm approval rate in Utah

It would be safer for republicans to make a Salt lake dem vote sink next decade.

Why ? The other districts are safe and should remain so, it’s not that Utah is becoming a progressive state, it’s just that Trump brand of republicanism is not attracting mormons

Agreed. 3 safe seats and one seat they control half the time is better than 3 safe seats and one D seat.

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/PolarBarrett/status/1214577843616833538?s=20

The republican Amy McGrath.

[windjammer]

UT-04: Ben McAdams raised around $900K in Q4

https://utahpolicy.com/index.php/features/today-at-utah-policy/22584-campaign-sources-mcadams-raised-nearly-1-million-in-campaign-cash-has-nearly-2-million-in-the-bank

Yeah, I doubt that republicans will take back this district next year especially with Trump lukewarm approval rate in Utah

It would be safer for republicans to make a Salt lake dem vote sink next decade.

Why ? The other districts are safe and should remain so, it’s not that Utah is becoming a progressive state, it’s just that Trump brand of republicanism is not attracting mormons

Trump brand of republicanism has redefined the GOP and it is going to stick. Being against immigration and against free trade is helping the GOP with WWC voters , but it's hurting them with mormons.

[Young Conservative]

https://twitter.com/PolarBarrett/status/1214577843616833538?s=20

The republican Amy McGrath.

A few major differences:
1. John James has run a virtually flawless campaign while McGrath has had a serious of fatal missteps.
2. James faces no primary challenge, while McGrath faces a few.
3. Michigan is no Kentucky.
4. McConnell has a far better campaign apparatus than Peters.
5. Trump is going to do far better in Michigan than the Democratic nominee in Kentucky.

But suuuuureeee. Be complacent as your dude gets outraised by a million dollars in a swing state. Complacency sure worked for Incumbent Senator Nelson...

[Young Conservative]

Dan Feehan raises over $785,000 in the fourth quarter...a very good number in his rematch for #MN01

https://www.postbulletin.com/news/elections/dfl-s-feehan-has-robust-fourth-quarter-in-fundraising/article_59cc4f1a-30bd-11ea-9fc0-db863b69b840.html


David Young raised $385,000 in fourth quarter, over $1 million in 2019 in the race for his old seat (#IA03)

https://caffeinatedthoughts.com/2020/01/david-young-announces-over-1-million-raised-in-2019/

[Brittain33]

https://twitter.com/PolarBarrett/status/1214577843616833538?s=20

The republican Amy McGrath.

A few major differences:
1. John James has run a virtually flawless campaign while McGrath has had a serious of fatal missteps.
2. James faces no primary challenge, while McGrath faces a few.
3. Michigan is no Kentucky.
4. McConnell has a far better campaign apparatus than Peters.
5. Trump is going to do far better in Michigan than the Democratic nominee in Kentucky.

All of this is true, but the other side of the scale is a potential D+8 environment which wipes away any significance.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

https://twitter.com/PolarBarrett/status/1214577843616833538?s=20

The republican Amy McGrath.

A few major differences:
1. John James has run a virtually flawless campaign while McGrath has had a serious of fatal missteps.
2. James faces no primary challenge, while McGrath faces a few.
3. Michigan is no Kentucky.
4. McConnell has a far better campaign apparatus than Peters.
5. Trump is going to do far better in Michigan than the Democratic nominee in Kentucky.

All of this is true, but the other side of the scale is a potential D+8 environment which wipes away any significance.

Kentucky 2016: R+30

Michigan 2016: R+1

That's what wipes out all any other comparisons between the two

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/PolarBarrett/status/1214577843616833538?s=20

The republican Amy McGrath.

A few major differences:
1. John James has run a virtually flawless campaign while McGrath has had a serious of fatal missteps.
2. James faces no primary challenge, while McGrath faces a few.
3. Michigan is no Kentucky.
4. McConnell has a far better campaign apparatus than Peters.
5. Trump is going to do far better in Michigan than the Democratic nominee in Kentucky.

All of this is true, but the other side of the scale is a potential D+8 environment which wipes away any significance.

Kentucky 2016: R+30

Michigan 2016: R+1

That's what wipes out all any other comparisons between the two

And Indiana was D+1 in 2008.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

https://twitter.com/PolarBarrett/status/1214577843616833538?s=20

The republican Amy McGrath.

A few major differences:
1. John James has run a virtually flawless campaign while McGrath has had a serious of fatal missteps.
2. James faces no primary challenge, while McGrath faces a few.
3. Michigan is no Kentucky.
4. McConnell has a far better campaign apparatus than Peters.
5. Trump is going to do far better in Michigan than the Democratic nominee in Kentucky.

All of this is true, but the other side of the scale is a potential D+8 environment which wipes away any significance.

Kentucky 2016: R+30

Michigan 2016: R+1

That's what wipes out all any other comparisons between the two

And Indiana was D+1 in 2008.

Ok, and unlike Indiana 08 Trump still has plenty of room to grow in districts like MI-01 where he didn't even break 60 in 2016

[Landslide Lyndon]

Ok, and unlike Indiana 08 Trump still has plenty of room to grow in districts like MI-01 where he didn't even break 60 in 2016

And plenty of room to fall in the Detroit suburbs and Grand Rapids area.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Ok, and unlike Indiana 08 Trump still has plenty of room to grow in districts like MI-01 where he didn't even break 60 in 2016

And plenty of room to fall in the Detroit suburbs and Grand Rapids area.

Yeah, but there's little indication of that happening.

[lfromnj]

Ok, and unlike Indiana 08 Trump still has plenty of room to grow in districts like MI-01 where he didn't even break 60 in 2016

And plenty of room to fall in the Detroit suburbs and Grand Rapids area.

Oh yes the well vaunted Detroit burns like down river Wayne. Macomber county and Monroe county and NW Oakland and Livingston.

[Jamison5]

https://twitter.com/PolarBarrett/status/1214577843616833538?s=20

The republican Amy McGrath.

A few major differences:
1. John James has run a virtually flawless campaign while McGrath has had a serious of fatal missteps.
2. James faces no primary challenge, while McGrath faces a few.
3. Michigan is no Kentucky.
4. McConnell has a far better campaign apparatus than Peters.
5. Trump is going to do far better in Michigan than the Democratic nominee in Kentucky.

All of this is true, but the other side of the scale is a potential D+8 environment which wipes away any significance.

Kentucky 2016: R+30

Michigan 2016: R+1

That's what wipes out all any other comparisons between the two

And Indiana was D+1 in 2008.

Indiana was R+6 in 2008, you have to remember it was a D+7 election.

[Frenchrepublican]

https://twitter.com/PolarBarrett/status/1214577843616833538?s=20

The republican Amy McGrath.

A few major differences:
1. John James has run a virtually flawless campaign while McGrath has had a serious of fatal missteps.
2. James faces no primary challenge, while McGrath faces a few.
3. Michigan is no Kentucky.
4. McConnell has a far better campaign apparatus than Peters.
5. Trump is going to do far better in Michigan than the Democratic nominee in Kentucky.

All of this is true, but the other side of the scale is a potential D+8 environment which wipes away any significance.

This word matters. James is a strong candidate who would lose in a D+8 year but who could clearly win in a less D friendly year (MI Sen is probably winnable even in a D+1 or D+2 year), as of now we don't know what the climate will be in eleven months, but it's generally better to be ready in the case where a opportunity presents itself.

[Frenchrepublican]

UT-04: Ben McAdams raised around $900K in Q4

https://utahpolicy.com/index.php/features/today-at-utah-policy/22584-campaign-sources-mcadams-raised-nearly-1-million-in-campaign-cash-has-nearly-2-million-in-the-bank

Yeah, I doubt that republicans will take back this district next year especially with Trump lukewarm approval rate in Utah

It would be safer for republicans to make a Salt lake dem vote sink next decade.

Why ? The other districts are safe and should remain so, it’s not that Utah is becoming a progressive state, it’s just that Trump brand of republicanism is not attracting mormons

Trump brand of republicanism has redefined the GOP and it is going to stick. Being against immigration and against free trade is helping the GOP with WWC voters , but it's hurting them with mormons.

Mormons contrary to white suburbanites Romney/Clinton voters are still very socially and fiscally conservative, they will easily support a ''Trumpist'' republican as long he doesn't have the personal flaws that Trump has, I mean Ron DeSantis would probably win 2/3 of the vote in Utah if he were to run for / when he will run for the presidency

[Pericles]

UT-04: Ben McAdams raised around $900K in Q4

https://utahpolicy.com/index.php/features/today-at-utah-policy/22584-campaign-sources-mcadams-raised-nearly-1-million-in-campaign-cash-has-nearly-2-million-in-the-bank

Yeah, I doubt that republicans will take back this district next year especially with Trump lukewarm approval rate in Utah

It would be safer for republicans to make a Salt lake dem vote sink next decade.

Why ? The other districts are safe and should remain so, it’s not that Utah is becoming a progressive state, it’s just that Trump brand of republicanism is not attracting mormons

Trump brand of republicanism has redefined the GOP and it is going to stick. Being against immigration and against free trade is helping the GOP with WWC voters , but it's hurting them with mormons.

Mormons contrary to white suburbanites Romney/Clinton voters are still very socially and fiscally conservative, they will easily support a ''Trumpist'' republican as long he doesn't have the personal flaws that Trump has, I mean Ron DeSantis would probably win 2/3 of the vote in Utah if he were to run for / when he will run for the presidency

Mormons do have issues with Trump's stances on immigration and free trade and generally his populism, but given how dominant Republicans are in Utah they can easily afford to lose a few Mormons in Utah in return for WWC voters in the Upper Midwest. The main worry with Mormons for the Republicans is that it may cost them Arizona.

[Brittain33]

Ok, and unlike Indiana 08 Trump still has plenty of room to grow in districts like MI-01 where he didn't even break 60 in 2016

And plenty of room to fall in the Detroit suburbs and Grand Rapids area.

Yeah, but there's little indication of that happening.

Yes, it’s not as if two suburban Detroit districts flipped to Democrats after the 2016 election or anything.

[wbrocks67]

Cindy Axne raises $620K

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1214937159515430913