Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[Duke of York]

Meanwhile, is this article just clickbait or is such a thing possible?

https://www.newsweek.com/janet-protasiewicz-may-impeached-gop-after-wisconsin-election-win-1792602?mibextid=Zxz2cZ

I mean this would be just about the most anti-democratic thing I can ever imagine

The Senate Majority Leader already said there will be no impeachment proceedings.

Just saw the news clip (FOX6 MIL) … He seems like a Republican with conscious (if those exist)

Can you share the clip?

[oldtimer]

No change from the 2018 and 2020 judicial races, both party coalitions are switching so far evenly in those races:
https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1643663751436959751?cxt=HHwWjoCwqabeu88...

[Skill and Chance]

No change from the 2018 and 2020 judicial races, both party coalitions are switching so far evenly in those races:
https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1643663751436959751?cxt=HHwWjoCwqabeu88...

Looks like WOW is finally giving out.

[oldtimer]

No change from the 2018 and 2020 judicial races, both party coalitions are switching so far evenly in those races:
https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1643663751436959751?cxt=HHwWjoCwqabeu88...

Looks like WOW is finally giving out.

It should have done ages ago, I always wrote that Milwaukee was politically weird.

But Republicans can still keep Wisconsin a toss up in Presidential races with a version of the old Democrat coalition, minus students, it's why I keep it a toss up.

[Yoda]

Looking at results from last night it strikes me what a Democratic monster Dane county has become.

-Turnout in Dane was 80% of Nov 22. Statewide was 69% of Nov 22. Waukesha was 73% of Nov 22.
-Janet P got 82% of the vote in Dane. Obama only got 71% in Dane in 2012.

But even with all that Janet P would still have won if you exclude Dane's results.

And IIRC from reading this somewhere last night turnout was under 50% in Milwaukee? If true, dems still have a sizable # of voters left to turn out in future elections.

[Gass3268]

Looking at results from last night it strikes me what a Democratic monster Dane county has become.

-Turnout in Dane was 80% of Nov 22. Statewide was 69% of Nov 22. Waukesha was 73% of Nov 22.
-Janet P got 82% of the vote in Dane. Obama only got 71% in Dane in 2012.

But even with all that Janet P would still have won if you exclude Dane's results.

And IIRC from reading this somewhere last night turnout was under 50% in Milwaukee? If true, dems still have a sizable # of voters left to turn out in future elections.

It was at 45.3%, which is still a modern record for spring elections.

[Oryxslayer]

Looking at results from last night it strikes me what a Democratic monster Dane county has become.

-Turnout in Dane was 80% of Nov 22. Statewide was 69% of Nov 22. Waukesha was 73% of Nov 22.
-Janet P got 82% of the vote in Dane. Obama only got 71% in Dane in 2012.

But even with all that Janet P would still have won if you exclude Dane's results.

And IIRC from reading this somewhere last night turnout was under 50% in Milwaukee? If true, dems still have a sizable # of voters left to turn out in future elections.

I hate to say thats normal, but for off-cycle elections it is but not so extreme divergence as yesterday. We all knew and discussed pre-election that urban diverse Milwaukee turnout is low during these primaries/non-federal elections, and Dane seemingly always punches above its weight as if to counteract it.

[Yoda]

Looking at results from last night it strikes me what a Democratic monster Dane county has become.

-Turnout in Dane was 80% of Nov 22. Statewide was 69% of Nov 22. Waukesha was 73% of Nov 22.
-Janet P got 82% of the vote in Dane. Obama only got 71% in Dane in 2012.

But even with all that Janet P would still have won if you exclude Dane's results.

And IIRC from reading this somewhere last night turnout was under 50% in Milwaukee? If true, dems still have a sizable # of voters left to turn out in future elections.

It was at 45.3%, which is still a modern record for spring elections.

Looking at results from last night it strikes me what a Democratic monster Dane county has become.

-Turnout in Dane was 80% of Nov 22. Statewide was 69% of Nov 22. Waukesha was 73% of Nov 22.
-Janet P got 82% of the vote in Dane. Obama only got 71% in Dane in 2012.

But even with all that Janet P would still have won if you exclude Dane's results.

And IIRC from reading this somewhere last night turnout was under 50% in Milwaukee? If true, dems still have a sizable # of voters left to turn out in future elections.

I hate to say thats normal, but for off-cycle elections it is but not so extreme divergence as yesterday. We all knew and discussed pre-election that urban diverse Milwaukee turnout is low during these primaries/non-federal elections, and Dane seemingly always punches above its weight as if to counteract it.

Oh I for sure get that it's great turnout for an off-cycle spring election, what with urban minorities being less likely to vote when it's not a prez election and all. I'm just saying that in a presidential year, dems still have room to grow b/c of this. Replicate this turnout elsewhere in the state and get Milwaukee up to 60/65 and dems would absolutely romp. If we're fortunate enough to get new state legislature maps in time for '24, with trump as the repub nominee, I can see dems with a very, very good shot at getting the trifecta. Then Walker's legacy can truly be ripped out root and branch.

[MasterJedi]

Looking at results from last night it strikes me what a Democratic monster Dane county has become.

-Turnout in Dane was 80% of Nov 22. Statewide was 69% of Nov 22. Waukesha was 73% of Nov 22.
-Janet P got 82% of the vote in Dane. Obama only got 71% in Dane in 2012.

But even with all that Janet P would still have won if you exclude Dane's results.

And IIRC from reading this somewhere last night turnout was under 50% in Milwaukee? If true, dems still have a sizable # of voters left to turn out in future elections.

It was at 45.3%, which is still a modern record for spring elections.

Looking at results from last night it strikes me what a Democratic monster Dane county has become.

-Turnout in Dane was 80% of Nov 22. Statewide was 69% of Nov 22. Waukesha was 73% of Nov 22.
-Janet P got 82% of the vote in Dane. Obama only got 71% in Dane in 2012.

But even with all that Janet P would still have won if you exclude Dane's results.

And IIRC from reading this somewhere last night turnout was under 50% in Milwaukee? If true, dems still have a sizable # of voters left to turn out in future elections.

I hate to say thats normal, but for off-cycle elections it is but not so extreme divergence as yesterday. We all knew and discussed pre-election that urban diverse Milwaukee turnout is low during these primaries/non-federal elections, and Dane seemingly always punches above its weight as if to counteract it.

Oh I for sure get that it's great turnout for an off-cycle spring election, what with urban minorities being less likely to vote when it's not a prez election and all. I'm just saying that in a presidential year, dems still have room to grow b/c of this. Replicate this turnout elsewhere in the state and get Milwaukee up to 60/65 and dems would absolutely romp. If we're fortunate enough to get new state legislature maps in time for '24, with trump as the repub nominee, I can see dems with a very, very good shot at getting the trifecta. Then Walker's legacy can truly be ripped out root and branch.

Dem voters are more packed in, would likely require them to get a reverse gerrymander to get them the trifecta.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Looking at results from last night it strikes me what a Democratic monster Dane county has become.

-Turnout in Dane was 80% of Nov 22. Statewide was 69% of Nov 22. Waukesha was 73% of Nov 22.
-Janet P got 82% of the vote in Dane. Obama only got 71% in Dane in 2012.

But even with all that Janet P would still have won if you exclude Dane's results.

And IIRC from reading this somewhere last night turnout was under 50% in Milwaukee? If true, dems still have a sizable # of voters left to turn out in future elections.

It was at 45.3%, which is still a modern record for spring elections.

Looking at results from last night it strikes me what a Democratic monster Dane county has become.

-Turnout in Dane was 80% of Nov 22. Statewide was 69% of Nov 22. Waukesha was 73% of Nov 22.
-Janet P got 82% of the vote in Dane. Obama only got 71% in Dane in 2012.

But even with all that Janet P would still have won if you exclude Dane's results.

And IIRC from reading this somewhere last night turnout was under 50% in Milwaukee? If true, dems still have a sizable # of voters left to turn out in future elections.

I hate to say thats normal, but for off-cycle elections it is but not so extreme divergence as yesterday. We all knew and discussed pre-election that urban diverse Milwaukee turnout is low during these primaries/non-federal elections, and Dane seemingly always punches above its weight as if to counteract it.

Oh I for sure get that it's great turnout for an off-cycle spring election, what with urban minorities being less likely to vote when it's not a prez election and all. I'm just saying that in a presidential year, dems still have room to grow b/c of this. Replicate this turnout elsewhere in the state and get Milwaukee up to 60/65 and dems would absolutely romp. If we're fortunate enough to get new state legislature maps in time for '24, with trump as the repub nominee, I can see dems with a very, very good shot at getting the trifecta. Then Walker's legacy can truly be ripped out root and branch.

Dem voters are more packed in, would likely require them to get a reverse gerrymander to get them the trifecta.

Tbf that's kinda what happened in MI this cycle; the commission purposely unpacked Dems in the name of partisan fairness, and Ds won a trifecta by the skin of their teeth. I think the MI maps are egregious and wrong though if your party has a self-packing problem, it forces you to diversify and grow your coalition, the same way in a place like NV the GOP is penalized for having support that's almost exclusively rural.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

In before the WI Supreme Court, before the end of the year, rules that not only is the current congressional map unconstitutional, but that Democrats are also owed reparations. They then draw this, and it's in effect for Nov. 2024:



Districts 1, 2, 4, and 5 voted for Clinton and Biden
4 is Majority-Minority by Total Population
3 and 6 flipped from Trump to Biden
8 was only Trump '20 +9 and is trending D

[THG]

Kelly is an awful candidate who lost by over 10 in 2020 under the backdrop of the Democratic Presidential Primary, and lost by 10 again this year under the backdrop of abortion. Maybe the main problem is that he’s just a horrific candidate.

I would advise against people extrapolating too much from this result for this reason.

If this was an isolated incident, I'd probably agree with you, but it just isn't. Republicans have consistently underperformed in general elections after 2020. This is part of a systemic issue with the GOP.

Because we run candidates who suck at raising money and former losers, yes.

Dorow would have sadly still probably have lost, but in no universe would she have collapsed in WOW or as many deep red counties like Kelly did. She would have atleast tried campaigning. And if she was the nominee, then Knodl would have won comfortably

Knodl was the establishment choice who beat a disaster candidate handily in the primary, fundraised solidly, and ran a competent campaign. He had some extreme right-wing reactionary views but nothing more disqualifying than anything Ron Johnson has ever said. In a high-turnout race like this he should have had no problem at all and his barely skating by is probably the biggest flashing warning sign for the Wisconsin Republicans out of the many we saw last night.

Maybe Kelly losing by double digits also dragged Knodl down? Similarly to how Dixon and Mastriano losing by double digits dragged down multiple congressional candidates?

The disaster candidate would have lost by 6-7.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

DeSantis or Trump never had a chance in WI, MI AND PA ANY WAYS

[Sir Mohamed]

Wisconsin rejected a MAGA judge by a double digit margin? Based. It's too unfortunate ElectionsGuy has dropped out of the forum. Heck, this is his homestate.

His final post was that he was considering leaving the forum because we were all too stupid to see that Hassan was going to lose. I'd be shocked if he has the balls to show himself again after his behavior in the months leading up to the 2022 elections.

I can see why he isn't posting anymore. His final prediction post which was very confident turned out to be very wrong.

Not only very wrong, but one of the worst predictions on the entire website.

Disappearing like EG and Calthrina did just displays their immaturity.  I would venture to say that everyone who follows politics for long enough has made some wrong predictions, probably including some doozies, at some point.  (I've certainly made some!)  But being able to admit it when you're wrong, and trying to learn something from it, is something that a mature person does.  Refusing to acknowledge your mistakes is a sign of weakness, not strength.

Couldn't have said it better.

EG would possibly run around now and argue how this was a non-partisan election and therefore not actually a D-win. He might compare it to the KS abortion referendum and how this doesn't make KS a D-pickup.

[Epaminondas]

[snip]

If I counted right, Protasiewicz flipped 13 counties just from three years ago. Honestly with results this good for the Democrats, I feel Dobbs has really shored WI up for them in 2024. I could even see them winning Ozaukee in 2028 if the Republicans continue down the path they're on.

Nice map. Does that mean Prot won CD1 and CD3?

I think the MI maps are egregious and wrong though if your party has a self-packing problem, it forces you to diversify and grow your coalition, the same way in a place like NV the GOP is penalized for having support that's almost exclusively rural.

The location of the fields and rivers around people's home should not determine how important their vote is. Michigan did exactly the right thing, focusing on what matters in a functioning democracy.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Wisconsin rejected a MAGA judge by a double digit margin? Based. It's too unfortunate ElectionsGuy has dropped out of the forum. Heck, this is his homestate.

His final post was that he was considering leaving the forum because we were all too stupid to see that Hassan was going to lose. I'd be shocked if he has the balls to show himself again after his behavior in the months leading up to the 2022 elections.

I can see why he isn't posting anymore. His final prediction post which was very confident turned out to be very wrong.

I mean it's more he was just an asshole to everyone else who had the nerve to disagree with him.

[Pollster]

Maybe Kelly losing by double digits also dragged Knodl down? Similarly to how Dixon and Mastriano losing by double digits dragged down multiple congressional candidates?

The disaster candidate would have lost by 6-7.

Maybe, and that's something we'll never be able to really know, but given the lack of a major disparity in candidate quality and spending (I read somewhere that Knodl actually outspent Sinykin, though haven't seen that anywhere else) and the strong turnout (generally the higher turnout gets, the closer a constituency will vote to its baseline partisanship barring said major disparity in candidate quality and spending) I can't honestly say this feels likely. Even if non-regular election turnout does lean Dem now, Knodl at parity/with a narrow spending advantage really had no business doing worse than Michels at a steep deficit.

[Devils30]

Hot take: Wisconsin in 2020-2024 could be more like Florida from 2000-2004 and on.

Remember after 2000, most people thought Florida was trending Democratic and it was just a matter of time until the state turned blue. One would have cited trends in Palm Beach, Broward, Orange, Hillsborough to support this conclusion. However, the GOP got a massive swing in Northern Florida but Dems still had 40-45% in many counties, not to mention they won heavy WWC Pasco, Hernando and Volusia. Dems also stalled out in South Florida and the trend in Palm Beach/Broward reversed a bit. Analysts missed how far to the right these places could swing and how GOP heavy the retiring baby boomers became.

In Wisconsin, much has been made of the rural trend toward the GOP, especially in the driftless and northwest/central part of the state. However, it is becoming clear that Waukesha and Ozaukee with near 50% college grads have trended Dem and yet still have a ton of room for the GOP to fall. OTOH, one wonders if the GOP will stall out a bit in the rurals, even a woke urban candidate like Mandela Barnes only ran 1-2% worse here.

Additionally, exit polls suggest Wisconsin Dems are very strong with voters under 45. This might enable Dems to replace lost older voters over the 2020s and 2030s.

[DaleCooper]

Hot take: Wisconsin in 2020-2024 could be more like Florida from 2000-2004 and on.

Remember after 2000, most people thought Florida was trending Democratic and it was just a matter of time until the state turned blue. One would have cited trends in Palm Beach, Broward, Orange, Hillsborough to support this conclusion. However, the GOP got a massive swing in Northern Florida but Dems still had 40-45% in many counties, not to mention they won heavy WWC Pasco, Hernando and Volusia. Dems also stalled out in South Florida and the trend in Palm Beach/Broward reversed a bit. Analysts missed how far to the right these places could swing and how GOP heavy the retiring baby boomers became.

In Wisconsin, much has been made of the rural trend toward the GOP, especially in the driftless and northwest/central part of the state. However, it is becoming clear that Waukesha and Ozaukee with near 50% college grads have trended Dem and yet still have a ton of room for the GOP to fall. OTOH, one wonders if the GOP will stall out a bit in the rurals, even a woke urban candidate like Mandela Barnes only ran 1-2% worse here.

Additionally, exit polls suggest Wisconsin Dems are very strong with voters under 45. This might enable Dems to replace lost older voters over the 2020s and 2030s.

If we want to make another comparison to Florida, 2022 in Wisconsin almost felt a bit like Florida for the Democrats (if Nelson had hung on, of course). It seemed like a clear victory for them ahead of time in Governor and Senate and they nearly lost both. Come to think of it, if Wisconsin Senate had been seriously contested, Johnson would've lost.

[walleye26]

Hot take: Wisconsin in 2020-2024 could be more like Florida from 2000-2004 and on.

Remember after 2000, most people thought Florida was trending Democratic and it was just a matter of time until the state turned blue. One would have cited trends in Palm Beach, Broward, Orange, Hillsborough to support this conclusion. However, the GOP got a massive swing in Northern Florida but Dems still had 40-45% in many counties, not to mention they won heavy WWC Pasco, Hernando and Volusia. Dems also stalled out in South Florida and the trend in Palm Beach/Broward reversed a bit. Analysts missed how far to the right these places could swing and how GOP heavy the retiring baby boomers became.

In Wisconsin, much has been made of the rural trend toward the GOP, especially in the driftless and northwest/central part of the state. However, it is becoming clear that Waukesha and Ozaukee with near 50% college grads have trended Dem and yet still have a ton of room for the GOP to fall. OTOH, one wonders if the GOP will stall out a bit in the rurals, even a woke urban candidate like Mandela Barnes only ran 1-2% worse here.

Additionally, exit polls suggest Wisconsin Dems are very strong with voters under 45. This might enable Dems to replace lost older voters over the 2020s and 2030s.

The issue with this takes is that outside of the Driftless region, GOP already is running up the score, routinely getting 70% of the vote in places like Oconto, Florence, Taylor, Green Lake, etc, and the remaining areas that are rural have too many retired liberals from Chicago or the Twin Cities and Native Americans that they can’t get too much more red. Additionally, all of those GOP voters will be dead within 15 years. I hunt up in Rusk County, and there are no people under 30 up there. It’s all old people who’s kids have moved to Eau Claire or the Twin Cities.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think the MI maps are egregious and wrong though if your party has a self-packing problem, it forces you to diversify and grow your coalition, the same way in a place like NV the GOP is penalized for having support that's almost exclusively rural.

The location of the fields and rivers around people's home should not determine how important their vote is. Michigan did exactly the right thing, focusing on what matters in a functioning democracy.

Exactly, so just draw a partisan blind map that respects COIs. For instance, I live in NYC; no matter what I am going to be in an extreme lopsided D district where my vote is "wasted", but that isn't inherently unfair, at least compared to the alternative of Bacon-Stripping a Brooklyn Assembly District out to Staten Island or Long Island.

The other problem with drawing with the aim of overcoming geographic biases is that geography biases can flip on their head pretty fast (within a cycle of two), so that map could end up actually becoming a gerrymander.

If you really want, you can do what the PA special master did for the PA House of Representatives; he still appealed to neutral redistricting principles but would tend to ere towards choices that favor Dems. The issue with Michigan is that they did not follow good redistricting principles at all, and anyone looking at individual districts can tell there was clear intention to aggressively unpack Ds out of places like Ann Arbor and Lancing. Sure the topline partisanship results on 2020 Pres numbers may appear fair, but the actual map is terrible.

[Epaminondas]

Looking at Wisconsin statewide races in the Trump era:
2018 WISC: D+10
2018 Gov: D+1
2018 Senate: D+11
2019 WISC: R+0
2020 WISC: D+11
2020 Pres: D+1
2022 Gov: D+4
2022 Senate: R+1
2023 WISC: D+11

If representation actually means fair representation again at the WISC, it looks easy to argue that a 6-2 congressional map fails to represent the electorate, and thus should be struck down.

For instance, I live in NYC; no matter what I am going to be in an extreme lopsided D district where my vote is "wasted", but that isn't inherently unfair, at least compared to the alternative of Bacon-Stripping a Brooklyn Assembly District out to Staten Island or Long Island.

Bad analogy. There is a difference in kind: the electorally dominant party is already in power in NYC; your vote would only pad their margin and bring little change to policies enacted. This is worlds apart from a situation where the NY leg is controlled by the GOP because your vote was wasted.

It's also true that safe seats are poison to the democratic exchange of ideas, but that's another issue.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Looking at Wisconsin statewide races in the Trump era:
2018 WISC: D+10
2018 Gov: D+1
2018 Senate: D+11
2019 WISC: R+0
2020 WISC: D+11
2020 Pres: D+1
2022 Gov: D+4
2022 Senate: R+1
2023 WISC: D+11

If representation actually means fair representation again at the WISC, it looks easy to argue that a 6-2 congressional map fails to represent the electorate, and thus should be struck down.

For instance, I live in NYC; no matter what I am going to be in an extreme lopsided D district where my vote is "wasted", but that isn't inherently unfair, at least compared to the alternative of Bacon-Stripping a Brooklyn Assembly District out to Staten Island or Long Island.

Bad analogy. There is a difference in kind: the dominant party is already in power in NYC; your vote would only pad their margin and bring little change to policies enacted. This is worlds apart from a situation where the NY leg would be controlled by the GOP because your vote was wasted.

Firstly in most of those D+10 races, the breakdown was 4-4. Imo, the main issue with the current map is there should be a swingy R-leaning seat that keeps the Fox Valley together that would allow a 5D-3R outcome in Baldwin or Protacewitz style wins. WI only produces a 6-2 outcome when Republicans are viable statewide.

Also it doesn't matter if there's a dominant party or not. Intentionally trying to unpack specific communities over others is wrong; reverse-gerrymandering is still wrong, even if it achieves an outcome that may be fair when it comes to partisanship. Any map that violates neutral principles to achieve *any* partisan target is not good.

With that being said, if there are 2 equally good maps of Wisconsin, the only difference being one has more equitable partisanship, I'd choose the one with more equitable partisanship.

Under your logic we should try and draw that absurd Trump Congressional District in Massachusetts, or bacop-strip the Nevada General Assembly out to rural Nevada in the name of partisan fairness for the minority party.

[Oryxslayer]

Looking at Wisconsin statewide races in the Trump era:
2018 WISC: D+10
2018 Gov: D+1
2018 Senate: D+11
2019 WISC: R+0
2020 WISC: D+11
2020 Pres: D+1
2022 Gov: D+4
2022 Senate: R+1
2023 WISC: D+11

If representation actually means fair representation again at the WISC, it looks easy to argue that a 6-2 congressional map fails to represent the electorate, and thus should be struck down.

For instance, I live in NYC; no matter what I am going to be in an extreme lopsided D district where my vote is "wasted", but that isn't inherently unfair, at least compared to the alternative of Bacon-Stripping a Brooklyn Assembly District out to Staten Island or Long Island.

Bad analogy. There is a difference in kind: the dominant party is already in power in NYC; your vote would only pad their margin and bring little change to policies enacted. This is worlds apart from a situation where the NY leg would be controlled by the GOP because your vote was wasted.

Firstly in most of those D+10 races, the breakdown was 4-4. Imo, the main issue with the current map is there should be a swingy R-leaning seat that keeps the Fox Valley together that would allow a 5D-3R outcome in Baldwin or Protacewitz style wins. WI only produces a 6-2 outcome when Republicans are viable statewide.

Also it doesn't matter if there's a dominant party or not. Intentionally trying to unpack specific communities over others is wrong; reverse-gerrymandering is still wrong, even if it achieves an outcome that may be fair when it comes to partisanship. Any map that violates neutral principles to achieve *any* partisan target is not good.

With that being said, if there are 2 equally good maps of Wisconsin, the only difference being one has more equitable partisanship, I'd choose the one with more equitable partisanship.

Under your logic we should try and draw that absurd Trump Congressional District in Massachusetts, or bacop-strip the Nevada General Assembly out to rural Nevada in the name of partisan fairness for the minority party.

I agree with most of your points on corrective mapping to a point.  Ideally,  in a equitable nation, the geographically biases that are reflected in maps would cancel out - a states like Wisconsin and Ohio gives an extra Republican than the popular votes suggests, Texas and California do the opposite for dems. However we have to play with the cards delt.

To that end, in the event of court remapping,  it seems very likely that at least the state legislature maps will have 50-50 seat counts even if that results in seats like MI HD38 getting drawn. Cause copying Michigan Democrats seems to be in vogue right now fir Wisconsin dems.

[wbrocks67]

Milwaukee needs its own Ben Wikler, or he needs to travel there and try and duplicate what he's done in Dane.