Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/DanODonnellShow/status/1516594341820735492

Kids in the Milwaukee public schools finally got a choice of masking for the first time in two years... For a day, before they decided to reverse it back today because of rising cases.

Great job guys.

I saw an interview segment on the news this evening in which the new Mayor of Milwaukee justified this decision, claiming that we may be done with the virus, but the virus "isn't done with us", a statement which I've heard many others make. It certainly is a frustrating move, and I doubt this will help the Democrats in Wisconsin, just like the renewal of the Philadelphia mask mandate will probably hurt them in Pennsylvania.

As a Democrat, stuff like this makes me very upset. While I don’t think masking children is the evil some Republicans make it out to be, it should be lifted at this point, and the overcaution for really no good reason is a bad look. It makes them look incompetent and people question if we can ever return to normal. Dems should stop focusing on wedge issues like masks which ultimately play in to Republicans hands, that is over, and both the science and American people are not on our side on it right now.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/jrrosswrites/status/1519041196521361409

R Senator in Biden +8 that is now Biden +1 in suburban Milwaukee is retiring after all. Gives D's a limited chance at winning this seat.

There is no Biden + 1 senate seat in Milwaukee; the only real competative seat is a Biden + 17 which should lean Dem

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/jrrosswrites/status/1519041196521361409

R Senator in Biden +8 that is now Biden +1 in suburban Milwaukee is retiring after all. Gives D's a limited chance at winning this seat.

There is no Biden + 1 senate seat in Milwaukee; the only real competative seat is a Biden + 17 which should lean Dem

Nope remember the SCOTUS case. The GOP maps were picked. Moved from Biden +17 to Biden +1.

Oh I think I’m getting the maps messed up mb. Prolly at least Lena R for 2022 but something to watch down the road

[ProgressiveModerate]

Meanwhile the WIGOP is one of the messiest in the country:

https://twitter.com/MollyBeck/status/1519686174016741377

Common sense suburban mom who doesn’t play political games and wants good schools

[ProgressiveModerate]

Huh kinda suprising

[ProgressiveModerate]

Rebecca Kleefisch is among the most impressive Republican Governor Candidates not only in Wisconsin but also in the Country. Pretty close between her and Mark Ronchetti in New Mexico.

If she would become Governor of Wisconsin this year she would be instantly on every Republican Presidential Nominees Running Mate List and she might even run for POTUS herself in 2028.

She actually is. When she is unleashed, speaking from the stump and saying what she really believes, she's fantastic. Truly one of the best natural politicians in the country. I'm not saying that as a huge fan. I'm likely to vote for her in the primary but I disagree with her on policy in some not inconsequential ways.

However, her staff is a bunch of Walker retreads who are really dragging her down by limiting her appearances, giving her bad advice on policy, giving mixed messages, etc. For example, her commercials say she supports WIs pre Civil War abortion law, while her website says (at least said two weeks ago, not sure about now) that she supports a heartbeat bill. Also, she 100% does not believe that the election was stolen, but she was advised that she had to say otherwise to try to get Trump's endorsement. Now that she didn't get it, she's painted herself into a corner. She's a naturally fantastic candidate, she'd be a much better than average governor, but she's got a horrible staff that may help her snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

Even as a Dem from seeing her speak a few times she comes across as a much less toxic package than Trumpies while still supporting more or less all their policies. She does seem to know what issues affect people though and how to use R talking points well

[ProgressiveModerate]

Who do you guys think it'll be? Kleefisch or Michels?

Kleefisch only needs to keep a large lead in the Southeastern part of the state, like Vukmir over Nicholson in 2018, but Michels will probably sweep the rural areas, and he will probably cut into the Kleefisch base in the Milwaukee metro better than Nicholson, so I think Michels is the favorite.

Good, hopefully it's Michels. The general election polls probably are significantly underestimating Republicans, but it does appear that Michels is a weaker GE candidate than Kleefisch.

Is he? Kleefisch seems more extreme than Michels, but I could be wrong.

Moderate doenst always mean better. Crayfish has better optics and would likely be stronger in wow given her ties

[ProgressiveModerate]

As for Kleefischhttps://mobile.twitter.com/JULIEsList1/status/1539953461910986753

Tbf though, basically all American politicians have become more liberal on the issue of gay marriage over the past 15 years.

Nonetheless, its cool she says she will not end birth control or gay marriage, but she can’t really say she’d end them either just cause of public opinion. She also isn’t particularly assertive in how she phrases it which doesn’t make me confident if it came down to it she’d hold true to her words.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Just cast my Senate primary vote by mail (duck you Republicans) for Godlewski.

As a Wisconsinite, who do you think will be the nominee at this point?

Tossup but would lean Barnes. He’ll help boost black turnout but his history will hurt in most other areas of the state. Will probably have the worst margins in rural areas too.

Wisconsin tends to have very polarized primaries on both sides.

On the GOP side it’s usually greater Milwaukee/east side of the state, which tends to be more suburban vs rural areas on the western side .

On the Dem side it’s even more confusing cause it’s basically heavily African American Milwaukee vs hyper-liberal mainly white Madison vs rural/mid-sized community WI, all of which are pretty equal in their power in a Dem primary. In most states you tend to have a clear group or city that dominates Dem primaries but not really in Wisconsin

[ProgressiveModerate]

Also as a Dem, I really think Dems strategy in Wisconsin should be the win the court cause realistically they are not going to be winning the state government and there’s a very good chance the GOP can hold legsitaltive supermajorities in jornal years thanks to how Dems self-pack. I would much rather have an R trifecta in WI with a liberal court than an R supermajority legislature, a D governor, and a conservative court.

In MI and PA however, Rs shouldn’t win supermajorities except in amazing years and Dems have good chances of getting trifectas in state government. Imo those are better investments. Same goes for AZ. I’m not saying Dems should just give up on WI but I don’t think it’s worth all of this to fight an ultimately losing battle for state government control.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Also as a Dem, I really think Dems strategy in Wisconsin should be the win the court cause realistically they are not going to be winning the state government and there’s a very good chance the GOP can hold legsitaltive supermajorities in jornal years thanks to how Dems self-pack. I would much rather have an R trifecta in WI with a liberal court than an R supermajority legislature, a D governor, and a conservative court.

In MI and PA however, Rs shouldn’t win supermajorities except in amazing years and Dems have good chances of getting trifectas in state government. Imo those are better investments. Same goes for AZ. I’m not saying Dems should just give up on WI but I don’t think it’s worth all of this to fight an ultimately losing battle for state government control.

Supermajorities are pretty much impossible for Republicans in MI and PA.  The assembly is also close to impossible in Wisconsin, although they are almost certain to get there in the senate this year.

A supermajority in the state assembly is def very possible for WI Rs, especially as the last few "rural" Dems are knocked off.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Also as a Dem, I really think Dems strategy in Wisconsin should be the win the court cause realistically they are not going to be winning the state government and there’s a very good chance the GOP can hold legsitaltive supermajorities in jornal years thanks to how Dems self-pack. I would much rather have an R trifecta in WI with a liberal court than an R supermajority legislature, a D governor, and a conservative court.

In MI and PA however, Rs shouldn’t win supermajorities except in amazing years and Dems have good chances of getting trifectas in state government. Imo those are better investments. Same goes for AZ. I’m not saying Dems should just give up on WI but I don’t think it’s worth all of this to fight an ultimately losing battle for state government control.

Supermajorities are pretty much impossible for Republicans in MI and PA.  The assembly is also close to impossible in Wisconsin, although they are almost certain to get there in the senate this year.

A supermajority in the state assembly is def very possible for WI Rs, especially as the last few "rural" Dems are knocked off.

There are three Dems left in rural districts.  Two in the north and one outside Lacrosse.  Then there is a suburban Milwaukee seat that was made more Republicans that Dems will probably lose.  To actually get 66 would require winning the Steven’s Point district that Biden only won by six points, which I guess is certainly possible in this environment.

Shifts in Stevebs Pojr have been pretty brutal and Dems could also very well lose something else.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I’m quite sure y’all know the reason why Trump didn’t endorse Kleefish - it’s because Kleefish’s daughter went to prom with some state supreme court justice’s son that said the election wasn’t rigged. This is absolutely insane behavior.

I honestly wonder if Kleefisch's daughter feels bad or guilty. Trump is really an awful person.

[ProgressiveModerate]

For the record it seems like it was only briefly taken down cause it's back up now.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Micehls definitely makes this an easier haul for Evers to win re-election, but I am still not moving it out of the tossup category. Evers has been consistently unpopular and Wisconsin, for as much of a defining battleground state as it is, tends to have no qualms in electing people well to the right of where the state should be. It's the GOP's second easiest chance at a pickup, but they did still in some ways make that job harder on themselves.

And by the way, I just learned about why Trump didn't endorse Kleefisch, and I can't beleive that I am still being surprised at what a petty, narcisstic, sociopathic b**** he is! Really!? Because her daughter went to a dance with a non-election denying Justice's son? How far-removed and tenuous is he taking his grudges now?!

To me, Wisconsin has always felt like a much more delicate balancing act for Dems than MI or PA in which their base is more concentrated and defined. Both of the main Dem metros are pretty equally influential and Democrats really can't afford to collapse in smaller town/outright rural communities either whereas MI and PA are urban/suburban enough that even an absolute collapse with rural voters can be overridden without even needing that much of a NUT performance in the cities. This is already kinda true in PA where Dems are getting pretty close to rock bottom in some of the Appalachia rurals.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Micehls definitely makes this an easier haul for Evers to win re-election, but I am still not moving it out of the tossup category. Evers has been consistently unpopular and Wisconsin, for as much of a defining battleground state as it is, tends to have no qualms in electing people well to the right of where the state should be. It's the GOP's second easiest chance at a pickup, but they did still in some ways make that job harder on themselves.

And by the way, I just learned about why Trump didn't endorse Kleefisch, and I can't beleive that I am still being surprised at what a petty, narcisstic, sociopathic b**** he is! Really!? Because her daughter went to a dance with a non-election denying Justice's son? How far-removed and tenuous is he taking his grudges now?!

To me, Wisconsin has always felt like a much more delicate balancing act for Dems than MI or PA in which their base is more concentrated and defined. Both of the main Dem metros are pretty equally influential and Democrats really can't afford to collapse in smaller town/outright rural communities either whereas MI and PA are urban/suburban enough that even an absolute collapse with rural voters can be overridden without even needing that much of a NUT performance in the cities. This is already kinda true in PA where Dems are getting pretty close to rock bottom in some of the Appalachia rurals.

I think that's a good summation. Much like with Biden, a Democratic victory in Wisconsin now is going to require over-performances in Madison, Milwaukee, and the WOW counties if rural free-fall can't be offset. It's doable, but difficult.

A good comparison imo is Ohio where previous Dem wins relied on outright winning many rural areas and getting insane margins out of smaller communities like Lorain and Youngstown. Dem gains in Cinci and Columbus has been pretty impressive and they've held up fine in the immediate Cleveland area, but really don't have anything to show for it.

I would also say Iowa cause it's regionally similar but Ohio doesn't really have any significant D cities anyways in the way WI or OH do.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Micehls definitely makes this an easier haul for Evers to win re-election, but I am still not moving it out of the tossup category. Evers has been consistently unpopular and Wisconsin, for as much of a defining battleground state as it is, tends to have no qualms in electing people well to the right of where the state should be. It's the GOP's second easiest chance at a pickup, but they did still in some ways make that job harder on themselves.

And by the way, I just learned about why Trump didn't endorse Kleefisch, and I can't beleive that I am still being surprised at what a petty, narcisstic, sociopathic b**** he is! Really!? Because her daughter went to a dance with a non-election denying Justice's son? How far-removed and tenuous is he taking his grudges now?!

Not true? Marquette has always had him above water IIRC, and Morning Consult had him down a few % I believe if that. That's not "unpopular"

I haven't seen any recent polling, I suppose. But last I remember he was underwater and had a reputation as not accomplishing a lot (though that might more be the fault of the Wisconsin legislature).

Last Marquette in June had him +3. Previous one before that had him +5

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1539668170700894210

I think people tend to assume he's unpopular because he only won narrowly in 2018 while in states with similar topline partisanship Dems won Gov by a lot like MI and PA. The dynamics in each one of these races was unique.

[ProgressiveModerate]

WI GOP constantly giving things for Evers to run on

https://twitter.com/greenhousenyt/status/1558541651592859649

Honestly it really sucks how the GOP legistlature doesn't really face electoral consequences. It's not even because of gerrymandering but just Dems extreme packing into Madison and Milwaukee; creating a partisan fair state House or Senate map is very hard

[ProgressiveModerate]

The big problem with Wisconsin isn't so much that Democrats are packed so much in Milwaukee and Madison. I mean that is a problem but there's a couple notable Republican vote sinks too in the WOW area that balances it out a little, and the Democrats have that problem in most states. The core problem is that there's tons of Democrats "trapped" in places like the Fox River Valley that naturally break down into just Lean R seats. There's plenty of Democrats in the area between Green Bay and Appleton, but they just can't win a majority outside of areas deep in the cities proper, and for the somewhat sizable State Senate districts this often means winning any is a heavy lift. It also doesn't help you'll have a ton of Democrats and a safe Assembly seat somewhere like Eau Claire, but then a bunch of Republican but overwhelmingly so rural areas surrounding it meaning that they win more Assembly seats and you end up with a swing State Senate seat as a result even without gerrymandering. And finally the part of the state that swung the most toward Hillary and Biden was in fact WOW itself, which is still far too Republican to elect any Democrats (although the Milwaukee County suburbs were the only swing part of the state to swing to Hillary and Democrats have locked those down pretty well, but that's where the gerrymandering comes in and it only translates to a few State Assembly seats.)

That said if Democrats could ever win the state by the same margin Obama did again they'd probably win even the current maps.

Yeah this 100%. Whenever I've tried to draw a "fair map" I always end up with tons of "Likely R" seats comprised of pretty R rurals with some small very tiny 50-50 towns pulling the district to be less R but not enough to be competitive. Srs look at how many small towns in WI where Dems win like 50 or 52% of the vote. Quite annoying.

One other factor is that Madison is notably higher turnout than the rest of the state, so not only do Dems win those districts by insane lopsided margins, but they also have tons of wasted votes. At least in Ohio for instance, most of the D areas are relatively low turnout making the geography penalty much less severe.

[ProgressiveModerate]

This race really hasn’t gotten enough talk lately, especially compared to the senate race even though I’d argue the Gov race here is far more competitive

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/tony4wi/status/1580616619474227201?s=46&t=eUfQHwaY22Auaf...

Hopefully it's an Akin-esque moment that can help deliver Evers a win. It sounds bad enough. I just don't know if I trust Wisconsin to respond that way to it.

Is it just me, or do Atlas Dems seem to have a particular "distrust" of Wisconsin in a way they don't towards MI and PA. Is it because of how bad polling has been in Wisconsin?

[ProgressiveModerate]

(snip)

This is getting kinda old, is it not. Republicans were caught saying the same thing after the 2010 elections and look what happened shortly after.

Wisconsin's legislature passed several bills in their last session that would negatively affect voter turnout. The only reason they are not law now is because Tony Evers vetoed them.

The climate of the country is nothing like 2010. The Supreme Court gutted the Voting Rights Act & upheld Wisconsin's gerrymandered districts. There is a significant portion of Americans who no longer trust elections in this country. Wisconsin has a decent collection of those folks, and they are very vocal and pushing things in the state GOP. Michels is courting them.

This is nothing like what was being claimed in 2010.

And, to be completely forthright, winning in 2010 did mean that the WI GOP is much more likely to win congressional and state legislature districts. They weren't lying about their goals then, either.

It seems like this decade the only real defenses Dems have is being able to control the row offices (including governor) and the court. The GOP's vote distribution in Wisconsin is amazingly effective and doesn't seem like it'll go away anytime soon. The legistlature will not face direct electoral consequences no matter what but the difference between a majority and supermajority is meaningful.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I'm still convinced Michels will win. Evers has been slightly underwater for most of his term; granted, it's not really his fault that he hasn't accomplished anything, but it certainly doesn't help his approval ratings.

While we're on the subject of the Wisconsin governor's race, I think that had Scott Walker gotten 29,228 more votes in 2018, he could be Governor until the day he dies if he wanted to. Wisconsin's not getting any bluer.

I think there's a good chance Trump would've tried to do a primary challenge against Walker anyways cause Walker would prolly have accepted the results of the 2020 election.

I personally think Michaels is the favorite as well. Evers path to victory relies on disproportionate turnout out of Dane County

[ProgressiveModerate]

I didn't realize CD1 was this tight...Evers just lost it by 0.2 points

https://twitter.com/DrewSav/status/1595231265015619584

It was redrawn FWIW, lost all of Waukesha and got a few inner suburbs of Milwaukee. Overall its probably a pretty good bellwether for statewide albiet shifted slightly right.

Overall, WI-01 seems to be shifting more right than WI as a whole, at least using election results from last decade. It doesn't take in *that* much of the Milwaukee suburbs and the ones it does take in are slightly more "WWC" types than WOW.

It's also still unclear if Dems 2020 issues with Kenosha caused them a temporarily hit and it'll go back to being more D in a few cycles of if Ds are fundamentally on the decline there.

Steil def can't afford to fall asleep at the wheel though.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think I'd rather be Janet but only slightly.

A big question is who are all the WOW voters? If there's significant down ballot lag and they go to Kelly by like Walker-2018 numbers (unlikely), then Kelly would be favored, whereas if they skew more college educated and are almost a net wash, that's good for Protacewicz.

From the maps I've seen, the WOW county turnout seems to be coming from the inner-ring of suburbs which are closer but have still on net leaned R in recent cycles.