Special Election megathread (5/21: CA-20)

[GeneralMacArthur]

Interesting race. It's basically become national establishment vs progressives and local establishment. Turner's still got significantly more local support. I'm feeling high single digit to low double digit margin for Turner right now

Brown has more local endorsements than Turner.

It's funny, originally this race was framed as national progressive movement vs local politician.  Then Turner got a few local endorsements and Shontel got some national endorsements and now everyone's frames are all mixed up.

[wbrocks67]

A new poll here could be really helpful.

[Zaybay]

Interesting race. It's basically become national establishment vs progressives and local establishment. Turner's still got significantly more local support. I'm feeling high single digit to low double digit margin for Turner right now

Brown has more local endorsements than Turner.

It's funny, originally this race was framed as national progressive movement vs local politician.  Then Turner got a few local endorsements and Shontel got some national endorsements and now everyone's frames are all mixed up.

I guess if you go by sheer quantity, sure. But it's pretty clear at this point that the important players and heavy hitters in the area are backing Turner over Brown.

It's like I said way earlier in this thread: The notables are endorsing Turner, while the smaller folk are backing Brown. Thing is, I made that post before the mayor of Cleveland, the entire state senate/house delegation, and members of Brown's own board went with Nina. Now, the balance is a bit strong in favor of Turner.

[Lief 🗽]

Yikes! Looks like this race is closing, and fast!
https://twitter.com/taylorpopielarz/status/1413477521295691782?s=21

[TML]

Yikes! Looks like this race is closing, and fast!
https://twitter.com/taylorpopielarz/status/1413477521295691782?s=21

But it remains to be seen how many voters decided during the closing stretch of this campaign - last year’s Democratic presidential primaries had many states where at least 40% of primary voters decided during the final few days before their state’s primaries, which is what allowed Biden to dominate when he racked up all those endorsements. If this primary has tons of late deciders, then Brown may very well outperform expectations and perhaps win; if late deciders are only a small slice of the overall electorate, then Turner should be fine.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Still don't get why folks on Atlas seem to care about this race so much

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Still don't get why folks on Atlas seem to care about this race so much

Cause it's battlegrounds OH and Muslim and Afro American turnouts are key in getting Tim Ryan elected, if we win battleground OH, we win the H because a wave will Ensure that the H remains D and FL can fall and so can NC

It's a domino effect

[Morning in Atlas]

Still don't get why folks on Atlas seem to care about this race so much

You forget, my friend. We're not in 2021. We're in 2016 Part 5.

[Never Made it to Graceland]

Still don't get why folks on Atlas seem to care about this race so much

You forget, my friend. We're not in 2021. We're in 2016 Part 5.

Considering Hillary Clinton is backing one candidate and Bernie is backing the better candidate, that's pretty accurate.

[Suburbia]

Still don't get why folks on Atlas seem to care about this race so much

You forget, my friend. We're not in 2021. We're in 2016 Part 5.

[wbrocks67]

Still don't get why folks on Atlas seem to care about this race so much

I mean this is an elections forum and it's an off year with nothing substantial until November, so....

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Still don't get why folks on Atlas seem to care about this race so much

I mean this is an elections forum and it's an off year with nothing substantial until November, so....

There isn’t even a thread about the special for Alcee Hastings’ open seat

[Gracile]

Still don't get why folks on Atlas seem to care about this race so much

Yes, why would people on a site called "Talk Elections" be interested in an upcoming election?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Still don't get why folks on Atlas seem to care about this race so much

Yes, why would people on a site called "Talk Elections" be interested in an upcoming election?

This isn’t even the only upcoming House special in Ohio, much less the country.  It doesn’t seem like a very competitive primary and yet you don’t see 19 pages of discussion for the primary elections in the others.

[wbrocks67]

Still don't get why folks on Atlas seem to care about this race so much

Yes, why would people on a site called "Talk Elections" be interested in an upcoming election?

This isn’t even the only upcoming House special in Ohio, much less the country.  It doesn’t seem like a very competitive primary and yet you don’t see 19 pages of discussion for the primary elections in the others.

the primary is also competitive though

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Still don't get why folks on Atlas seem to care about this race so much

Yes, why would people on a site called "Talk Elections" be interested in an upcoming election?

This isn’t even the only upcoming House special in Ohio, much less the country.  It doesn’t seem like a very competitive primary and yet you don’t see 19 pages of discussion for the primary elections in the others.

the primary is also competitive though

Is it though?  I’d argue the specials for Hastings’ and even Stivers’ seats are probably a lot more competitive at this point.

[wbrocks67]

Still don't get why folks on Atlas seem to care about this race so much

Yes, why would people on a site called "Talk Elections" be interested in an upcoming election?

This isn’t even the only upcoming House special in Ohio, much less the country.  It doesn’t seem like a very competitive primary and yet you don’t see 19 pages of discussion for the primary elections in the others.

the primary is also competitive though

Is it though?  I’d argue the specials for Hastings’ and even Stivers’ seats are probably a lot more competitive at this point.

Given Turner now calling Brown out by name, I think it is

[brucejoel99]

Still don't get why folks on Atlas seem to care about this race so much

Yes, why would people on a site called "Talk Elections" be interested in an upcoming election?

This isn’t even the only upcoming House special in Ohio, much less the country.  It doesn’t seem like a very competitive primary and yet you don’t see 19 pages of discussion for the primary elections in the others.

the primary is also competitive though

Is it though?  I’d argue the specials for Hastings’ and even Stivers’ seats are probably a lot more competitive at this point.

Given Turner now calling Brown out by name, I think it is

Yeah, I wouldn't be at all surprised to hear that she has some internals that scared her into going more negative.

[Jackson Lee]

Shontel will win.

[Lognog]

Has there been recent polling?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

A new internal poll commissioned by Shontel Brown's campaign shows her trailing Turner 43-36%.

https://t.co/wcSiUFPgi7

Yes, it is an internal poll and you typically want to be leading in those, but the Brown team's past surveys have shown her trailing by 30+ points.

[Utah Neolib]

Shontel Brown has more local connections, and connections to Fudge. I’m not saying Nina won’t win, but people are seriously discounting Shontel

[CookieDamage]

I used to think Nina would win by double digits. This poll is an internal but wow what a rebound for Shontel. I think there's been a lot of damaging news about Nina lately too.

[wbrocks67]

Yep, given that Brown's own internal had her down 32 pts in April (seems very realistic), this one seems pretty realistic too. Turner still leading, but with only a slight edge, and Brown with the momentum

[JM1295]

Turner will still likely win, but I figured Brown would gain some momentum based off of recent endorsements and PACs. Still though, Turner looks to be the favorite and even more so with this being a Brown internal poll.