Special Election megathread (4/30: NY-26)

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Not sure which AA Cleveland politician will win the primary, but I'd be surprised if it was Turner.  She's burned tons of bridges locally.  Had she not gone off the deep end from 2016-onward, she'd have been the frontrunner.  Now though?  She could make a good grift out of it, but probably no more than that.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Congresswoman Turner would be awesome.

She's probably looking at a 4th or 5th place finish, maybe a distant 3rd at best.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Turner will absolutely be competitive and should probably be considered the frontrunner for the seat. This election is going to draw every serious candidate in Cleveland (and Akron). It's a once-in-a-lifetime chance to make the jump to Congress, and it's a special, so none of them will have to give up their current seats to run. Turner has a committed ideological base and will raise an unimaginable amount of money — and if you only need 25% of the vote to win the primary...

Outside of the Twitterverse Nina Turner is not actually a popular or very well known politician. She drove Our Revolution into the ground and while she was never going to win in 2014, it remains only her foray into actually competitive politics and she failed miserably.

So what? She'll still raise a ton of money, and she's running in an election where you might not have to be popular or well-known to win.

Yeah, but she’s pretty unpopular and it’s to the point where folks will rally around whoever has the best shot of beating her in the unlikely event that she looks like one of the frontrunners.  It’s not an ideological thing, she’s just spent the past years burning every bridge in sight and now it’s gonna come back to bite her.  You might be able to get a Justice Dem elected by finding some Cori Bush-type pastor or community activist and then running a stealth campaign, but Turner doesn’t really have serious chance of winning.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Nina Turner is in.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/529558-nina-turner-files-paperwork-for-congressional-run

Let the grifting begin

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

People are acting like Turner is a total joke. She was an Ohio Senate Minority Whip.

At this point, she is a total joke  And she was Senate Minority Whip once upon a time and would’ve been a top-tier serious contender if this were 2015, but that was before she spent four years burning every bridge under the sun.  Again, this isn’t even an ideological thing.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

People are acting like Turner is a total joke. She was an Ohio Senate Minority Whip.

At this point, she is a total joke  And she was Senate Minority Whip once upon a time and would’ve been a top-tier serious contender if this were 2015, but that was before she spent four years burning every bridge under the sun.  Again, this isn’t even an ideological thing.

Naw, it's pretty clear that some don't like her because she endorsed Bernie and isn't a mindless neoliberal drone.

Denial isn't a river in Africa

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://www.cleveland.com/open/2020/12/nina-turner-announces-bid-to-succeed-marcia-fudge-in-congress.html

Turner announced. Looks like she's picked up endorsements from the typical progressive groups as well as Ro Khanna, Cori Bush, and Keith Ellison. Based on comments from yesterday Bernie will also likely endorse soon. Progressives seem to be lining up thus far, let's see if it holds up or can get Turner over the finish line.

Also endorsed by Killer Mike, Danny Glover, and Charlamagne tha God lol

Also endorsing her today: Akron Councilwoman Tara Samples (who ran for Lt. Gov. in 2018), former State Senate Minority Leader Eric Kearney of Cincinnati, and current State Senate Minority Leader Kenny Yuko. I distinctly remember being told in this thread that establishment figures would rally around whoever has the best shot of beating her?

They will.  So far the only endorsement she's gotten that's worth anything in this district is Kenny Yuko's; that was a very good get.  The rest (including Bernie's) aren't really worth much.  Even so, I stand by what I've said before both about her chances and what the Cuyahoga County Democratic establishment will ultimately do.

For example, Eric Kearney is a washed up has-been from Cincinnati who was last seen getting dropped from frigging Ed FitzGerald's ticket due to a series of tax scandals (you could almost say he was FitzGerald's Eagleton).  He has no pull in Cleveland.  Tara Samples is a City Councilwoman from Akron.  That's like bragging about being endorsed by a Staten Island State Rep when you're running in the Democratic primary for NYC Mayor

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://www.cleveland.com/open/2020/12/nina-turner-announces-bid-to-succeed-marcia-fudge-in-congress.html

Turner announced. Looks like she's picked up endorsements from the typical progressive groups as well as Ro Khanna, Cori Bush, and Keith Ellison. Based on comments from yesterday Bernie will also likely endorse soon. Progressives seem to be lining up thus far, let's see if it holds up or can get Turner over the finish line.

Also endorsed by Killer Mike, Danny Glover, and Charlamagne tha God lol

Also endorsing her today: Akron Councilwoman Tara Samples (who ran for Lt. Gov. in 2018), former State Senate Minority Leader Eric Kearney of Cincinnati, and current State Senate Minority Leader Kenny Yuko. I distinctly remember being told in this thread that establishment figures would rally around whoever has the best shot of beating her?

They will.  So far the only endorsement she's gotten that's worth anything in this district is Kenny Yuko's; that was a very good get.  The rest (including Bernie's) aren't really worth much.  Even so, I stand by what I've said before both about her chances and what the Cuyahoga County Democratic establishment will ultimately do.

For example, Eric Kearney is a washed up has-been from Cincinnati who was last seen getting dropped from frigging Ed FitzGerald's ticket due to a series of tax scandals (you could almost say he was FitzGerald's Eagleton).  He has no pull in Cleveland.  Tara Samples is a City Councilwoman from Akron.  That's like bragging about being endorsed by a Staten Island State Rep when you're running in the Democratic primary for NYC Mayor

What on earth are you saying? Samples LIVES in OH-11. Nina is the frontrunner here, like it or not. There's already stupid squabbling up in Cuyahoga about whether or not Shontel Brown needs to step down from her role as Cuyahoga County Democratic Chairwoman, Cuyahoga County Councilwoman, or both. The establishment has to avoid this sort of sh**t if they're going to win, and they're not at all on track.

I’m saying Akron isn’t gonna decide this thing, Cuyahoga County will.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://www.cleveland.com/open/2020/12/nina-turner-announces-bid-to-succeed-marcia-fudge-in-congress.html

Turner announced. Looks like she's picked up endorsements from the typical progressive groups as well as Ro Khanna, Cori Bush, and Keith Ellison. Based on comments from yesterday Bernie will also likely endorse soon. Progressives seem to be lining up thus far, let's see if it holds up or can get Turner over the finish line.

Also endorsed by Killer Mike, Danny Glover, and Charlamagne tha God lol

Also endorsing her today: Akron Councilwoman Tara Samples (who ran for Lt. Gov. in 2018), former State Senate Minority Leader Eric Kearney of Cincinnati, and current State Senate Minority Leader Kenny Yuko. I distinctly remember being told in this thread that establishment figures would rally around whoever has the best shot of beating her?

They will.  So far the only endorsement she's gotten that's worth anything in this district is Kenny Yuko's; that was a very good get.  The rest (including Bernie's) aren't really worth much.  Even so, I stand by what I've said before both about her chances and what the Cuyahoga County Democratic establishment will ultimately do.

For example, Eric Kearney is a washed up has-been from Cincinnati who was last seen getting dropped from frigging Ed FitzGerald's ticket due to a series of tax scandals (you could almost say he was FitzGerald's Eagleton).  He has no pull in Cleveland.  Tara Samples is a City Councilwoman from Akron.  That's like bragging about being endorsed by a Staten Island State Rep when you're running in the Democratic primary for NYC Mayor

What on earth are you saying? Samples LIVES in OH-11. Nina is the frontrunner here, like it or not. There's already stupid squabbling up in Cuyahoga about whether or not Shontel Brown needs to step down from her role as Cuyahoga County Democratic Chairwoman, Cuyahoga County Councilwoman, or both. The establishment has to avoid this sort of sh**t if they're going to win, and they're not at all on track.

I’m saying Akron isn’t gonna decide this thing, Cuyahoga County will.

20% of primary voters are going to be in Akron and there are already 3 Cuyahoga County candidates in this thing. Summit County will matter, and until a Summit County candidate gets in, Tuner should be considered the frontrunner as the one with statewide name ID and a national fundraising apparatus.

1) Jeff Johnson is a joke

2) Bold of you to assume Samples speaks for the Summit County Democratic machine.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://www.cleveland.com/open/2020/12/nina-turner-announces-bid-to-succeed-marcia-fudge-in-congress.html

Turner announced. Looks like she's picked up endorsements from the typical progressive groups as well as Ro Khanna, Cori Bush, and Keith Ellison. Based on comments from yesterday Bernie will also likely endorse soon. Progressives seem to be lining up thus far, let's see if it holds up or can get Turner over the finish line.

Also endorsed by Killer Mike, Danny Glover, and Charlamagne tha God lol

Also endorsing her today: Akron Councilwoman Tara Samples (who ran for Lt. Gov. in 2018), former State Senate Minority Leader Eric Kearney of Cincinnati, and current State Senate Minority Leader Kenny Yuko. I distinctly remember being told in this thread that establishment figures would rally around whoever has the best shot of beating her?

They will.  So far the only endorsement she's gotten that's worth anything in this district is Kenny Yuko's; that was a very good get.  The rest (including Bernie's) aren't really worth much.  Even so, I stand by what I've said before both about her chances and what the Cuyahoga County Democratic establishment will ultimately do.

For example, Eric Kearney is a washed up has-been from Cincinnati who was last seen getting dropped from frigging Ed FitzGerald's ticket due to a series of tax scandals (you could almost say he was FitzGerald's Eagleton).  He has no pull in Cleveland.  Tara Samples is a City Councilwoman from Akron.  That's like bragging about being endorsed by a Staten Island State Rep when you're running in the Democratic primary for NYC Mayor

What on earth are you saying? Samples LIVES in OH-11. Nina is the frontrunner here, like it or not. There's already stupid squabbling up in Cuyahoga about whether or not Shontel Brown needs to step down from her role as Cuyahoga County Democratic Chairwoman, Cuyahoga County Councilwoman, or both. The establishment has to avoid this sort of sh**t if they're going to win, and they're not at all on track.

I’m saying Akron isn’t gonna decide this thing, Cuyahoga County will.

20% of primary voters are going to be in Akron and there are already 3 Cuyahoga County candidates in this thing. Summit County will matter, and until a Summit County candidate gets in, Tuner should be considered the frontrunner as the one with statewide name ID and a national fundraising apparatus.

1) Jeff Johnson is a joke

2) Bold of you to assume Samples speaks for the Summit County Democratic machine.

1) Jeff Johnson is pretty close to Marcia Fudge. She recruited him to run against Sandra Willians in the 2018 state senate primary. He lost, but Johnson has a base, which will be a super low turnout affair. Every vote matters in this election, and the establishment can't afford a "joke" stealing jokes from Shontel Brown.

2) Samples is pretty popular in Akron! Even if she doesn't speak for the Summit County machine, they're only liable to get seriously invested if a Summit County candidate runs. In their absence, Samples is a strong surrogate to have for a portion of the district that none of the candidates can afford to ignore.

Like her or no, it's delusional to deny that Nina Turner is the front runner at this point.

I'll grant you 2), but I disagree re: Johnson.  The man is a walking dumpster fire.  Time will tell, I suppose.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

This is already becoming one of my favourite threads on Atlas.

A bunch of people acting like they're experts in the OH-11 district saying she wont be competitive in the first couple pages, then she breaks a fundraising record and pulls in a slew of endorsements almost instantly.

chef's kiss.

She’s gonna lose, but whatever helps you sleep at night

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

This is already becoming one of my favourite threads on Atlas.

A bunch of people acting like they're experts in the OH-11 district saying she wont be competitive in the first couple pages, then she breaks a fundraising record and pulls in a slew of endorsements almost instantly.

chef's kiss.

She’s gonna lose, but whatever helps you sleep at night

Big "Anybody who thinks Nina Turner would win this doesnt understand Ohio politics" energy

I wouldn’t go that far, but she’s certainly got her work cut out for her, that’s for sure.  

On a different note, apparently Emilia Sykes is taking a pretty hard look at running here.  If she does, then the Akron Democratic machine will go all-in for her and she’s probably got the Akron portion of the district locked down.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

This is already becoming one of my favourite threads on Atlas.

A bunch of people acting like they're experts in the OH-11 district saying she wont be competitive in the first couple pages, then she breaks a fundraising record and pulls in a slew of endorsements almost instantly.

chef's kiss.

She’s gonna lose, but whatever helps you sleep at night

Big "Anybody who thinks Nina Turner would win this doesnt understand Ohio politics" energy

I wouldn’t go that far, but she’s certainly got her work cut out for her, that’s for sure.  

On a different note, apparently Emilia Sykes is taking a pretty hard look at running here.  If she does, then the Akron Democratic machine will go all-in for her and she’s probably got the Akron portion of the district locked down.

I wouldn't bet on Sykes running. (Although I wouldn't completely rule it out, either.) She has her eyes on a bigger prize, and if she did win, she would be in trouble quickly. OH-11 is all but guaranteed to recede into Cuyahoga County entirely come redistricting, meaning Sykes would have to move and lose her core primary voting base in the process.

What's a bigger prize?

Governor, someday. Sykes might take a detour to Congress, but it would make sense to hold out for the lines to be redrawn if she does. It is moderately likely there will be a Summit County-based U.S. House seat in 2022, and there hasn't really one of those since the 1990s.

Sykes has no chance at Governor

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Welp, the scorching hot takes on the first page are aging horribly, to say the least...

I maintain that my reasoning was sound and that Turner still isn’t a lock by any stretch, but I do admit that I was wrong about the Cuyahoga County Dems being able to get their sh!t together (I swear, those clowns can barely even tie their shoes on a good day). 

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I hadn't thought to check on this thread, since I assumed it would be a steaming mess of hot takes about Nina Turner, but... wow, people really thought she had no chance? You may not like Turner, but she's not comparable to someone like Cenk Uygur, and while money isn't everything, her name recognition will definitely help her.

I mean, she’d be DOA if the Cuyahoga County Democratic establishment even remotely had its act together, but sadly they still don’t

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

A bump in the road for Brown, but probably inconsequential:

It is time for Democrats to stand up and speak out against the erosion of our party. As a lifelong Democrat who has been committed to our collective progress, I am outraged at the cronyism and backroom deals that benefit individuals and not the people they’ve sworn to serve.

Ms. Brown and more than 25 members of the county party’s central and executive committees have clearly broken the rules of the party, and Ms. Brown can in no way serve impartially over a mess she created. It is time for her to resign as chair of the Cuyahoga County Democratic Party forthwith, and for each of the committee members who defied the party’s bylaws to do the same.

https://www.cleveland.com/opinion/2021/02/shontel-brown-must-resign-as-cuyahoga-county-democratic-party-chair.html

No one cares, for better or worse

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/danielmarans/status/1364213890972864513

This is a good get, and surprisingly this union backed Biden pretty heavily in 2020 apparently. It seems like Turner has very deep connections to Cleveland organized labor, which I think might have been overshadowed by all the progressive firebrandiness she's been doing since 2016.

If nothing else, I would really love to see donut twitter/KHive completely lose it and donate tons of money to whatever Republican grifter opposes her.

Donut twitter?

Back in 2017, I think, Turner and some other people from Our Revolution tried to goto the DNC HQ to give some policy suggestions or something but were blocked by barricades. They were offered donuts and water, which Turner found insulting given that they weren't being heard, which led to a lot of centrist libs on Twitter adopting it as a symbol of antipathy towards the Bernie wing in general and Nina Turnr/Our Revolution specifically.

Literally haven’t heard of this before, but in any case, no one’s gonna donate to Turner’s Republican opponent except the time of Republican who gets duped every two years into donating to whichever random grifter is running against AOC or Maxine Waters.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/ninaturner/status/1374737867847704581

Nina Turner endorsed by CPC. Not particularly surprising, I guess, but it is notable that Turner seems to be getting support even from mainstream progressives.

I remember when she was one of Hillary’s top AA surrogates and one of the most aggressively pro-Hillary politicians in Ohio.  I also remember when she was a DLC-curious third-way type who Republicans were hoping would get this seat instead of Fudge so they could get a ConservaDem in a safe D seat.  Funny how shameless opportunism can change a person’s political views

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/marisa_n19/status/1377252525141819393?s=21

This one sounds like a pretty big deal

It's over.  Game, set, and match.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

This is already becoming one of my favourite threads on Atlas.

A bunch of people acting like they're experts in the OH-11 district saying she wont be competitive in the first couple pages, then she breaks a fundraising record and pulls in a slew of endorsements almost instantly.

chef's kiss.

She’s gonna lose, but whatever helps you sleep at night

4 months later and this thread somehow got even more incredible.

I don't have a say on this race nor do I care, but cry me a river. She's running a great campaign that has everyone from the DSA to national unions to local legislators to the Mayor of Cleveland backing her. The next 4 years of Turner-induced intraparty loathing will be as amusing to watch as the last 4 years of pearlclutching. And I can't wait.

"Dread it, run from it, Rep. Turner arrives all the same."

No one is getting bent out of shape about Turner winning (also, you're late to the party; I already posted my prediction that Turner would lose in that thread for predictions that haven't aged well at least a week ago), so you'll have to get your schadenfreude fix elsewhere.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Congresswoman Turner would be awesome.

She's probably looking at a 4th or 5th place finish, maybe a distant 3rd at best.

Turner will not be competitive

Anyway the general is Titanium D

We went from this to "Turner's Race to Lose" pretty quick huh

Yeah I was really wrong about this race.

This is already becoming one of my favourite threads on Atlas.

A bunch of people acting like they're experts in the OH-11 district saying she wont be competitive in the first couple pages, then she breaks a fundraising record and pulls in a slew of endorsements almost instantly.

chef's kiss.

She’s gonna lose, but whatever helps you sleep at night

4 months later and this thread somehow got even more incredible.

I don't have a say on this race nor do I care, but cry me a river. She's running a great campaign that has everyone from the DSA to national unions to local legislators to the Mayor of Cleveland backing her. The next 4 years of Turner-induced intraparty loathing will be as amusing to watch as the last 4 years of pearlclutching. And I can't wait.

"Dread it, run from it, Rep. Turner arrives all the same."

No one is getting bent out of shape about Turner winning (also, you're late to the party; I already posted my prediction that Turner would lose in that thread for predictions that haven't aged well at least a week ago), so you'll have to get your schadenfreude fix elsewhere.

It doesn't really work as a "burn" when the people you're talking about owned up to getting the race wrong over a month ago without prompting, but thanks for playing

While we're on the subject of predictions that didn't age well though, how did that Trump will win re-election prediction work out for you?  

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Congresswoman Turner would be awesome.

She's probably looking at a 4th or 5th place finish, maybe a distant 3rd at best.

Turner will not be competitive

Anyway the general is Titanium D

We went from this to "Turner's Race to Lose" pretty quick huh

Yeah I was really wrong about this race.

This is already becoming one of my favourite threads on Atlas.

A bunch of people acting like they're experts in the OH-11 district saying she wont be competitive in the first couple pages, then she breaks a fundraising record and pulls in a slew of endorsements almost instantly.

chef's kiss.

She’s gonna lose, but whatever helps you sleep at night

4 months later and this thread somehow got even more incredible.

I don't have a say on this race nor do I care, but cry me a river. She's running a great campaign that has everyone from the DSA to national unions to local legislators to the Mayor of Cleveland backing her. The next 4 years of Turner-induced intraparty loathing will be as amusing to watch as the last 4 years of pearlclutching. And I can't wait.

"Dread it, run from it, Rep. Turner arrives all the same."

No one is getting bent out of shape about Turner winning (also, you're late to the party; I already posted my prediction that Turner would lose in that thread for predictions that haven't aged well at least a week ago), so you'll have to get your schadenfreude fix elsewhere.

It doesn't really work as a "burn" when the people you're talking about owned up to getting the race wrong over a month ago without prompting, but thanks for playing

While we're on the subject of predictions that didn't age well though, how did that Trump will win re-election prediction work out for you?  

I just find it pretty hilarious that many people can assert like a fact early on how a primary is going to go, and you guys definitely let your dislike of Turner get in control of that. However, that's cool that you admitted you were wrong.

Pretty well, if you actually judge on the margins and details, and not on a binary win/loss method. But I'll say it again in case anyone wants to keep lying about me: I was wrong, and I don't have any problem admitting that. I still have my predictions right below my avatar too. But I'm also not going to say I was more wrong than the people predicting a Biden landslide, that's just disingenuous.

In my case, I think it was more that I foolishly assumed the Cuyahoga County Dems might have there act together for once and that I didn’t anticipate Turner reinventing herself as an establishmentarian (props to her for pulling that off btw

I’m not lying, I genuinely didn’t know you’d admitted you were wrong before.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Both State Representative Allison Russo and Franklin County Auditor Michael Stinziano have filed for OH-15. I like them both, but Stinziano doesn’t live in the district and it is already a challenge for the Democrat to be from Franklin County. As an OH-15 voter, I will be supporting Russo in the primary.

Russo is a very strong candidate...just not for this district  She’s a definite over-performer, but unless it’s for raising name ID, I don’t know why she’s running.  I don’t know why Stinziano is considering running here though.  I like him, but that’d be a slaughter.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

In my case, I think it was more that I foolishly assumed the Cuyahoga County Dems might have there act together for once and that I didn’t anticipate Turner reinventing herself as an establishmentarian (props to her for pulling that off btw

It helps to have enormous amounts of money.  Funny how people all over the country are donating tons of cash to Turner so she can use it to distance herself from them and lie to voters that she was never really one of them.

[credit: Tenor]

No one cares that Turner is going to win the primary

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

In my case, I think it was more that I foolishly assumed the Cuyahoga County Dems might have there act together for once and that I didn’t anticipate Turner reinventing herself as an establishmentarian (props to her for pulling that off btw

It helps to have enormous amounts of money.  Funny how people all over the country are donating tons of cash to Turner so she can use it to distance herself from them and lie to voters that she was never really one of them.

[credit: Tenor]

No one cares that Turner is going to win the primary

Damn, all these coping red avatars could've fooled me.

Please cite