Special Election megathread (4/30: NY-26)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Not unexpected, she is expected to be Redistricted out in 2022

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Also honestly her complaints are stupid.

"HUD is a leftover for black members"

Its not like every HUD cabinet member has been black, you have to go back like 6 or 7 before Carson.

The expectation for Agriculture was stupid especially for someone from such an urban district. Yes there are obviously some urban concerns regarding the Agriculture department but those aren't exclusively urban issues such as Food Stamps.

Lol, Urban League deals with HUD issues, I was a product of Urban League and they helped

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Nina Turner is a great fit for OH

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hopes this propels Amy Acton into Sen and get a good D nominee for Gov, DeWine only won by 3 and Sherrod Brown won in 2018 in a Midterm

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Still don't get why folks on Atlas seem to care about this race so much

Cause it's battlegrounds OH and Muslim and Afro American turnouts are key in getting Tim Ryan elected, if we win battleground OH, we win the H because a wave will Ensure that the H remains D and FL can fall and so can NC

It's a domino effect

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

🟤🟤🟤 Brown is gonna win this race

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Root for Brown

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I picked Shontel Brown Great news

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It doesn't matter because even if we lose MN special Walz is on the ballot in Nov and we can win the seat I am counting on that and all our D's will be on the ballot same with FL 13 even if we lose that we can win it but it's an R seat

The good news is Kleefisch lost

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

So are there any more votes left to count, or is 4.2% the final margin? If so, definitely a decent outcome for Democrats, though the higher turnout for Republicans in Wisconsin shouldn’t be discounted as a data point, and I don’t see why NC would be a better pick-up opportunity than WI. I’d say that if the midterms were held today, there’s a good chance it would look more like a neutral year than a red wave, but Democrats shouldn’t get cocky (in the same way Republicans seemed to after 2021), since there are still three months to go, and things could start to look better again for Republicans. Not going to shift my expectations much just yet, though if things continue to look this way in October, I might.

The Ukranian war helps Rs but Biden killed AL Zawahri and another Taliban leader after Rs said that Taliban would attack us if they took power in Afghanistan that didn't come true, there has been zero terrorist attacks since Taliban took over, this leaves no doubt Bin Laden was taken out by OBAMA, plus gadls prices are going down

Kleefisch isn't the Nominee for Gov Johnson is much weaker since Michel's is the Nominee

We can win MN 1 in Nov when Gov Walz is on the ballot and R turnout is more than D's in the primary because Females vote for Rs in the primary and D's in the GE, they did it here they got rid of Sullivan the stronger opponent and Pritzker got Bailey whom did this females, not white men, same on PA R Primary Females like Dr Oz and got rid of McCormick and MD the females voted for Cox but lesser degree because of Schultz alot of Atlas users forget we have an even split in this nation 150 Females and 150 men and most females and Minorities are D

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think Sabato IS waiting for these elections to make the decision to change its ratings or not

Ratings do t matter Steve Konraki has WI, PA, NC, OH and FL as Tossups I keep telling users this otherwise Progressive Moderate R nut map will be accurate and it's not Rs aren't getting 54 R Senators

Cook certainly has WI as Tossup also wasn't VA Lean D and we lost VA and 2019 KY was Lean R they went opposite the Direction they were supposed to
The maps are blank on EDay if models were 100 percent correct they said D's would gain H seats last time we lost seats

PA, AZ, NV are certainly Lean D on MTP Cook reporter says that D's have 50 seats right now guess where Rs have 42 OH, NC, FL, UT, IA, MO are certainly in play with a blank Map

We're not Guarenteed to lose the H it can be a range of 235/210 R Seats

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Mary Peltola has an excellent chance of winning because Walker is tied with DUNLEAVY in the polls I posted we will see when the next poll comes out

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/alaska-special-election-fill-remainder-073819934.html

She is leading in the ranked choice voting a winner will be declared sometime after Sept 1st

Nick Begich will be eliminated for the Special but he is gonna be on Nov Ballot

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Steve Konraki just said that Mary Peltola will get the majority of Begich reallocated vote because Begich supporters don't like Palin sending Mary Peltola to CONGRESS, REP ELECT MARY PELTOLA and we will see next week in FL 13 what happens

I guess they will change the ratings once Peltola gets sworn in this is Tossup Tilt D now not Lean R

At the very least it's not Tilt R it's a Tossup

It's definitely a blue wave if we win AK AL, FL 14 Bellwether for the H and we will see what happens in TX and FL Gov

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Palin is behind I said it's a Tossup but we will see what happens, Palin is behind by 5K votes too

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This special isn't a referendum it's a revote in Nov when Hochul is on the ballot if we lose we will revote in Nov

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah R wave plse they are losing NY 19 I hope we win this

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

After we win NY 19 UWS and 2016 can't call it an R wave anymore they said Rs would win by 8, that goes to show you Ryan in OH isn't DOA just because Traggy has Vance ahead

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The R wave is no more

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden is not at 41 percent he is at 48 percent Approval

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sean T has declared Dems the moral winner, lol

https://twitter.com/SeanTrende/status/1562276217222569986?s=20&t=KUtiBCr6vDv...

Still I never understood why Molinaro was an "A+" recruit. It just seems like he was given that label because he wasn't a complete dumpster wreck (like many GOP candidates have been) and he's fairly young, charismatic, and attractive. That doesn't inherently make him an A+ recruit.

This tells you about Ryan v Vance race Ryan can beat Vance just like Ryan beat Molinari

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Red wave is DOA

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Molinari probably wins the new NY 19, Ryan is running in NY 18, but this tells you about the Ryan v Vance rave if we can have Pat Ryan win so can Tim Ryan that's probably why the media isn't giving this race much attention

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a range of seats the Rs will get it's a 235/210RH and 50/56,0/D Senate and it's a 50 chance we get Divided Govt and 40% Secular Trifecta and 10 R Congress I keep saying this but Old School puts this statement out because he is mad Rs lost

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The R brand is bad because Trump brand is bad look what's going on TV with insurrection, the Rs aren't immune to Trump criminal investigation