Alabama Megathread 4: A New Hope

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Remember when Robert Kennedy was winning the primary race by 20 points?

Indeed, a Kennedy v Moore race would have been really interesting.

Kennedy probably would have lost. I doubt he would have ran a masterful campaign like Jones did.

[Sestak]

Remember when Robert Kennedy was winning the primary race by 20 points?

Indeed, a Kennedy v Moore race would have been really interesting.

Kennedy probably would have lost. I doubt he would have ran a masterful campaign like Jones did.

Indeed, he was supposedly a conservative Democrat though.  So for those who acted like Jones' positions on abortion or general liberal stances meant he had no chance, Kennedy would have theoretically been a better fit.  He could have also done well with black turnout.  I think Kennedy's biggest flaw would have been a lack of party support though.

I'm very happy it was Jones who won both the primary and the general though.

I thought about that, but Kennedy was also advertising himself as pro-life. And again, Jones' campaign did basically everything right. I doubt Kennedy could have done that.

Jones was clearly the better choice.

[Anna Komnene]

We can’t forget that nearly half of Alabama voters voted for Moore, a pedophile, who lost by only a few thousand votes against an uncontroversial and respectable man. The overwhelming majority of Alabaman White voters cast their ballot for the pedophile. The question was never whether all Alabama voters are deplorable pedophile apologists, since minorities weren’t going to vote for Moore, but whether White Alabamans are pedophile apologists. They’ve proven that they are - by overwhelming margins.

While the racial polarization is clear, it's a pretty reductionist argument and unhelpful. The enthusiasm in the black community and the unity was very important, but all of the white voters, both men and women who came out to vote for Jones were important too. Jones wouldn't have won the election without them. Everyone in the coalition was needed. In the end, I think it was basically Jones' superior ground game that got him over the top, in both Birmingham and Montgomery but also in Huntsville and some of the suburbs. The share of the young vote was much higher than what the polls were predicting too.

[Nyvin]

It's crazy that Jones only one 1 of the 7 congressional districts (maybe AL-5 will flip with provisionals, but it will be close)

It really shows the effectiveness of the Republican map,  they really neatly organized their voters to make the districts impenetrable.

If you look at the demographics though, Alabama really should have two Black districts.

[GeorgiaModerate]

We can’t forget that nearly half of Alabama voters voted for Moore, a pedophile, who lost by only a few thousand votes against an uncontroversial and respectable man. The overwhelming majority of Alabaman White voters cast their ballot for the pedophile. The question was never whether all Alabama voters are deplorable pedophile apologists, since minorities weren’t going to vote for Moore, but whether White Alabamans are pedophile apologists. They’ve proven that they are - by overwhelming margins.

While the racial polarization is clear, it's a pretty reductionist argument and unhelpful. The enthusiasm in the black community and the unity was very important, but all of the white voters, both men and women who came out to vote for Jones were important too. Jones wouldn't have won the election without them. Everyone in the coalition was needed. In the end, I think it was basically Jones' superior ground game that got him over the top, in both Birmingham and Montgomery but also in Huntsville and some of the suburbs. The share of the young vote was much higher than what the polls were predicting too.

This is a key point.  Traditionally, turnout among the youngest voters has lagged other age groups,  but in the current environment they've become more motivated to get out and vote.  If this isn't just a temporary burst of enthusiasm, Republicans will be in even more trouble than it would currently appear.

[TheSaint250]

Kennedy would’ve been a good alternative. I believe his pitch was that he was a standard conservative but, influenced by the Civil Rights Era, he thought the government should get more involved. He is definitely more conservative than Jones.

Regardless, we don’t know if he would’ve won. With Jones, however, we know.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Kennedy would’ve been a good alternative. I believe his pitch was that he was a standard conservative but, influenced by the Civil Rights Era, he thought the government should get more involved. He is definitely more conservative than Jones.

Regardless, we don’t know if he would’ve won. With Jones, however, we know.

Jones really ran a near-flawless campaign, and even if he was more conservative, I think Kennedy likely would have made some mistakes that could have cost him the election, considering how close it was - because he was a total rookie and had no experience really campaigning or running for office, whereas Jones knew exactly what he was doing.

[TheSaint250]

Kennedy would’ve been a good alternative. I believe his pitch was that he was a standard conservative but, influenced by the Civil Rights Era, he thought the government should get more involved. He is definitely more conservative than Jones.

Regardless, we don’t know if he would’ve won. With Jones, however, we know.

Jones really ran a near-flawless campaign, and even if he was more conservative, I think Kennedy likely would have made some mistakes that could have cost him the election, considering how close it was - because he was a total rookie and had no experience really campaigning or running for office, whereas Jones knew exactly what he was doing.

Aside from going on Chuck Todd's show and bragging about his pro-choice stance, yeah, there was nothing that could have gone better for Jones

This.

[jimrtex]

We just got the most important Demographic breakdown from FOX:

Alabama fans: Moore +6
Auburn fans: Jones +2
Non-football fans: Jones +30

What percentage of voters are non-football fans? Isn't that about like polling Jewish voters in Alabama?

[Sestak]

We just got the most important Demographic breakdown from FOX:

Alabama fans: Moore +6
Auburn fans: Jones +2
Non-football fans: Jones +30

I am officially rooting for Auburn every Iron Bowl. Especially b/c Lee County swung so hard to Jones.

[IceSpear]

Just looking at the exit polls... Doug won 74% of the moderate vote and 59% of the 18-24 year old vote. I have faith that the young generation won't morph into the Hitler youth.

I'd like to meet the 25% of "moderates" that voted for Moore, lol.

[Holmes]

Just looking at the exit polls... Doug won 74% of the moderate vote and 59% of the 18-24 year old vote. I have faith that the young generation won't morph into the Hitler youth.

I'd like to meet the 25% of "moderates" that voted for Moore, lol.

They're Republicans. Probably concentrated in Shelby/Jefferson burbs, Madison, Tuscaloosa and Mobile.

[IceSpear]

What happens if Moore never concedes?

The concession of the losing candidate is just convention, it doesn't actually matter

I'm pretty sure Marilyn Musgrave still hasn't conceded her 2008 race.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Raw turnout change between 2014-2017:

The Black Belt and Birmingham turnout won the election for Jones.

[Holmes]

Raw turnout change between 2014-2017:

The Black Belt and Birmingham turnout won the election for Jones.

Yes. Madison, Tuscaloosa, Lee and Mobile too. Also worth noting the huge swing in Shelby with turnout actually increasing.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

We just got the most important Demographic breakdown from FOX:

Alabama fans: Moore +6
Auburn fans: Jones +2
Non-football fans: Jones +30

What percentage of voters are non-football fans? Isn't that about like polling Jewish voters in Alabama?

I got the full question (FOX is now doing an alternative to traditional exit polling, so its numbers are sometimes different from the exit poll- the most notable was that it suggested a somewhat bigger age gap than the exit polls did):

Alabama fans (47%): Moore 52-46
Auburn fans (19%): Jones 50-48
Fans of both (12%): Moore 52-47
Fans of neither (21%): Jones 60-39

[Soonerdem]

We just got the most important Demographic breakdown from FOX:

Alabama fans: Moore +6
Auburn fans: Jones +2
Non-football fans: Jones +30

What percentage of voters are non-football fans? Isn't that about like polling Jewish voters in Alabama?

I got the full question (FOX is now doing an alternative to traditional exit polling, so its numbers are sometimes different from the exit poll- the most notable was that it suggested a somewhat bigger age gap than the exit polls did):

Alabama fans (47%): Moore 52-46
Auburn fans (19%): Jones 50-48
Fans of both (12%): Moore 52-47
Fans of neither (21%): Jones 60-39

Fans of both is like being a fan of both Ted Cruz and Elizabeth Warren

[100% pro-life no matter what]

FOX also did income on its non-exit poll thing, and here is what they have:

Under 25,000: Jones +24
25-50K: Jones +11
50-75K: Moore +5
75-100K: Moore +12
100-200K: Moore +16
200-250K: Jones +29
250K+: Jones +21

They also asked about a Strange-Jones race:
Strange 48
Jones 47

But, of course, take that with a grain of salt because things would have been so different, especially in terms of who showed up.

[jimrtex]

We just got the most important Demographic breakdown from FOX:

Alabama fans: Moore +6
Auburn fans: Jones +2
Non-football fans: Jones +30

What percentage of voters are non-football fans? Isn't that about like polling Jewish voters in Alabama?

I got the full question (FOX is now doing an alternative to traditional exit polling, so its numbers are sometimes different from the exit poll- the most notable was that it suggested a somewhat bigger age gap than the exit polls did):

Alabama fans (47%): Moore 52-46
Auburn fans (19%): Jones 50-48
Fans of both (12%): Moore 52-47
Fans of neither (21%): Jones 60-39

So it would be fans of UAB, South Alabama, Troy, Alabama A&M, Samford, or even those who favor Tennessee, Georgia, Florida, etc., rather than those who completely deny the existence of Football.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

We just got the most important Demographic breakdown from FOX:

Alabama fans: Moore +6
Auburn fans: Jones +2
Non-football fans: Jones +30

What percentage of voters are non-football fans? Isn't that about like polling Jewish voters in Alabama?

I got the full question (FOX is now doing an alternative to traditional exit polling, so its numbers are sometimes different from the exit poll- the most notable was that it suggested a somewhat bigger age gap than the exit polls did):

Alabama fans (47%): Moore 52-46
Auburn fans (19%): Jones 50-48
Fans of both (12%): Moore 52-47
Fans of neither (21%): Jones 60-39

So it would be fans of UAB, South Alabama, Troy, Alabama A&M, Samford, or even those who favor Tennessee, Georgia, Florida, etc., rather than those who completely deny the existence of Football.

Yes, I probably messed up earlier.  That could reflect both transplants and non-football fans being more liberal than the rest of the state.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

FOX also did income on its non-exit poll thing, and here is what they have:

Under 25,000: Jones +24
25-50K: Jones +11
50-75K: Moore +5
75-100K: Moore +12
100-200K: Moore +16
200-250K: Jones +29
250K+: Jones +21

They also asked about a Strange-Jones race:
Strange 48
Jones 47

But, of course, take that with a grain of salt because things would have been so different, especially in terms of who showed up.

Can you link Fox News's voter analysis?

[Alabama_Indy10]

We just got the most important Demographic breakdown from FOX:

Alabama fans: Moore +6
Auburn fans: Jones +2
Non-football fans: Jones +30

What percentage of voters are non-football fans? Isn't that about like polling Jewish voters in Alabama?

I got the full question (FOX is now doing an alternative to traditional exit polling, so its numbers are sometimes different from the exit poll- the most notable was that it suggested a somewhat bigger age gap than the exit polls did):

Alabama fans (47%): Moore 52-46
Auburn fans (19%): Jones 50-48
Fans of both (12%): Moore 52-47
Fans of neither (21%): Jones 60-39

So it would be fans of UAB, South Alabama, Troy, Alabama A&M, Samford, or even those who favor Tennessee, Georgia, Florida, etc., rather than those who completely deny the existence of Football.

You missed JSU

[100% pro-life no matter what]

FOX also did income on its non-exit poll thing, and here is what they have:

Under 25,000: Jones +24
25-50K: Jones +11
50-75K: Moore +5
75-100K: Moore +12
100-200K: Moore +16
200-250K: Jones +29
250K+: Jones +21

They also asked about a Strange-Jones race:
Strange 48
Jones 47

But, of course, take that with a grain of salt because things would have been so different, especially in terms of who showed up.

Can you link Fox News's voter analysis?

https://andersonrobbins.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/Fox-News-Voter-Analysis-Alabama-Poll-Final-Results.pdf

[GeorgiaModerate]

FOX also did income on its non-exit poll thing, and here is what they have:

Under 25,000: Jones +24
25-50K: Jones +11
50-75K: Moore +5
75-100K: Moore +12
100-200K: Moore +16
200-250K: Jones +29
250K+: Jones +21

They also asked about a Strange-Jones race:
Strange 48
Jones 47

But, of course, take that with a grain of salt because things would have been so different, especially in terms of who showed up.

The divergence at $200K is striking.  What accounts for that?

[100% pro-life no matter what]

FOX also did income on its non-exit poll thing, and here is what they have:

Under 25,000: Jones +24
25-50K: Jones +11
50-75K: Moore +5
75-100K: Moore +12
100-200K: Moore +16
200-250K: Jones +29
250K+: Jones +21

They also asked about a Strange-Jones race:
Strange 48
Jones 47

But, of course, take that with a grain of salt because things would have been so different, especially in terms of who showed up.

The divergence at $200K is striking.  What accounts for that?

Only 4% of the sample was in the top two groups (compared to 19% between 100 and 200K), so normal exit polls would just put an asterisk there.  If it is not sampling error, it probably represents the division between the upper-middle class and the upper-class, which may have very different attitudes on social issues?