Alabama Megathread 4: A New Hope

[IceSpear]

Just looking at the exit polls... Doug won 74% of the moderate vote and 59% of the 18-24 year old vote. I have faith that the young generation won't morph into the Hitler youth.

I'd like to meet the 25% of "moderates" that voted for Moore, lol.

[IceSpear]

What happens if Moore never concedes?

The concession of the losing candidate is just convention, it doesn't actually matter

I'm pretty sure Marilyn Musgrave still hasn't conceded her 2008 race.

[IceSpear]

Jones won the precinct that includes the Gadsden Mall:

Jones - 755 (74%)
Moore - 244 (24%)
Write Ins - 19 (1.9%)

What was the Clinton-Trump result?

[IceSpear]

College towns have been showing some interesting trends - especially college kids apparently starting to turn out more and more.

I'm really interested in the fact that white folks who live in the Black Belt are apparently more willing to vote for Democrats than those from neighboring counties.

This is a phenomenon I've observed across multiple elections in the rural Deep South. I initially considered that even small discrepancies in non-white support/turnout calcs could be having a disproportionate impact on white D projections in counties where whites are a small percentage (this definitely happens in the SW w/ Latinos). However, in the case of GA specifically, we have voter registration and turnout data by both race and county, and the trend still showed up even when maximizing black support. I ran some basic regression analysis awhile back and - to simplify - racial polarization among rural Southern whites tends to intensify substantially when blacks are between 25-55% of the population.

My amateur sociological guess is that when Southern whites aren't living alongside any meaningful number of blacks, they don't feel "threatened" politically (ergo, more willing to vote D); when they are beyond the point of being able to counter black political power, they're also more likely to vote Democratic due to a familiarity with black/Democratic local governance, and an understanding that the world isn't going to end. In between those two extremes exists an environment where the two groups can both wield political power and take it away from each other.

I will point out that 2 of the Black Belt counties in the AL projection were almost certainly being skewed by the initial concern I had in the first paragraph - both heavily-black counties (the heaviest-black 2 counties, IIRC). My calcs for Greene and Macon County suggested that 42 & 46% of whites there voted for Jones. I subsequently revised them using more detailed data.

That's pretty fascinating. Enough familiarity to breed contempt, but not enough to feel comfortable with. Monroe County immediately jumped out at me considering it was the closest county in the state and also had the lowest white vote for Jones.

[IceSpear]

Greedo, you've been wrong about everything you ever said, you can't write legible English and you don't have a grasp of basic morality. Just stop expressing yourself, you have nothing worth saying and you also can't say things because you suck at language.

I never said the race was rigged but that there seems to be voter fraud going around,Doug Jones did win but that guy said he and others came from all over the country to vote for Doug Jones.

How does a single guy saying something matter? if I say that I helped the Clinton campaign bus in 3,0000 Mexicans so she could win the popular vote, does that make you believe it?

I think you forgot a comma and a couple zeroes.

[IceSpear]

The one thing I took from Jones' comments is that he wants to be re-elected, and isn't resigned to a retirement/presidential run/VP slot/cabinet post/Blanching.

[IceSpear]

"Blank" got 9 votes (does this mean 9 people wrote in the word, or that 9 people left a blank ballot)
"a competent conservative: got 1 vote
"Neither" got 1 vote
Ronald Reagan got 1 vote
Bugs Bunny got 1 vote
Buddy the Elf got 1 vote
Red Squirrel got 1 vote
"Overvote" got 1 vote (does this mean someone wrote in the word, or that it is an actual overvote)

This Competent Conservative fellow sounds interesting.

But is he a stronger candidate than Generic Republican?

[IceSpear]

I will see this man in hell, hang on while you can Moore, cuz u gonna be in fire and brimstone, the likes of which you have never seen before, whether it be 10 15 20 years, you aint got much left in you.

Maybe Satan is planning to retire and is grooming Moore as his successor?

[IceSpear]

Moore is now on Facebook blaming "Muslims and Marxists" for his loss. Because as we all know, Alabama is a hotbed of Muslims and Marxists.

[IceSpear]

On election night, Roy Moore claimed that Military absentees would help him to win... they actually expanded Jones' victory margin.

It probably had more to do with there being more provisional ballots (lean very Democratic) and a smaller number of military ballots (lean Republican).

Wouldn't military ballots skew young and nonwhite? Not exactly Moore's best demographics.

[IceSpear]

GOPland: Didn't get a majority - illegitimate!

As opposed to their god emperor who couldn't even get a plurality, much less a majority.

[IceSpear]

Moore never concedes. According to him, there are still thousands of votes for him in the 2010 and 2014 Gubernatorial primaries that the state has refused to count.

You mean his ultra close 2006 loss?

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=1&year=2006&f=0&off=5&elect=2