Alabama Megathread 4: A New Hope

[GeorgiaModerate]

Remember when Robert Kennedy was winning the primary race by 20 points?

Indeed, a Kennedy v Moore race would have been really interesting.

Maybe Kennedy could move to Missouri and Jay Nixon would run again, and we'd have Kennedy vs. Nixon in the primary.

[GeorgiaModerate]

We can’t forget that nearly half of Alabama voters voted for Moore, a pedophile, who lost by only a few thousand votes against an uncontroversial and respectable man. The overwhelming majority of Alabaman White voters cast their ballot for the pedophile. The question was never whether all Alabama voters are deplorable pedophile apologists, since minorities weren’t going to vote for Moore, but whether White Alabamans are pedophile apologists. They’ve proven that they are - by overwhelming margins.

While the racial polarization is clear, it's a pretty reductionist argument and unhelpful. The enthusiasm in the black community and the unity was very important, but all of the white voters, both men and women who came out to vote for Jones were important too. Jones wouldn't have won the election without them. Everyone in the coalition was needed. In the end, I think it was basically Jones' superior ground game that got him over the top, in both Birmingham and Montgomery but also in Huntsville and some of the suburbs. The share of the young vote was much higher than what the polls were predicting too.

This is a key point.  Traditionally, turnout among the youngest voters has lagged other age groups,  but in the current environment they've become more motivated to get out and vote.  If this isn't just a temporary burst of enthusiasm, Republicans will be in even more trouble than it would currently appear.

[GeorgiaModerate]

FOX also did income on its non-exit poll thing, and here is what they have:

Under 25,000: Jones +24
25-50K: Jones +11
50-75K: Moore +5
75-100K: Moore +12
100-200K: Moore +16
200-250K: Jones +29
250K+: Jones +21

They also asked about a Strange-Jones race:
Strange 48
Jones 47

But, of course, take that with a grain of salt because things would have been so different, especially in terms of who showed up.

The divergence at $200K is striking.  What accounts for that?

[GeorgiaModerate]

It seems that certain people can't accept that their side can possibly lose without it being cheating:

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[GeorgiaModerate]

According to the AL SoS, voter turnout was just a notch over 40%.

http://www2.alabamavotes.gov/electionNight/statewideResultsByContest.aspx?ecode=1000915

And here's what made the difference:

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As was said a million times on these threads...turnout was the key.

[GeorgiaModerate]

We just got the most important Demographic breakdown from FOX:

Alabama fans: Moore +6
Auburn fans: Jones +2
Non-football fans: Jones +30

What percentage of voters are non-football fans? Isn't that about like polling Jewish voters in Alabama?

I got the full question (FOX is now doing an alternative to traditional exit polling, so its numbers are sometimes different from the exit poll- the most notable was that it suggested a somewhat bigger age gap than the exit polls did):

Alabama fans (47%): Moore 52-46
Auburn fans (19%): Jones 50-48
Fans of both (12%): Moore 52-47
Fans of neither (21%): Jones 60-39

You know, I thought Roy Moore was the most disgusting thing in Alabama. But 12% are fans of BOTH?!?!?!

I knew a couple of people in Shelby County who that would fit.  One of their kids went to Alabama, the other to Auburn, so they rooted for both (and proclaimed neutrality in the Iron Bowl, although I have a feeling they secretly favored Bama).

[GeorgiaModerate]

Here's the swing map from the 2016 presidential election:

That's really rather remarkable.

[GeorgiaModerate]

It seems that certain people can't accept that their side can possibly lose without it being cheating:

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As a black person myself from MS, also underage, I can confirm that it was true. What more could I say? Jones needed us to do the dirty stuff.

And here's how you did it!  https://twitter.com/jonrog1/status/941083157712969728

(This is a great takedown, and few people deserve it more than Bill Mitchell.)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Disappointed moore lost but now icespear maybe will finally shut up.

The reports going around are saying Moore is waiting on military ballots any idea how many there are?

Not only are there not going to be 20k military ballots, Moore edge in military ballots won't be large enough to shrink Jones victory margin by 20k.   

Right, the military vote won't go 100% for any candidate, let alone one like Moore.  Huntsville has a large military presence, and Moore didn't do very well there.

Also, the overseas ballots that were received before Election Day would have been counted with other absentee ballots.  Only ballots received after Election Day would remain to be counted (I think they must be postmarked by Election Day and received within 7 days after to be counted, but not 100% sure of that).

And finally, not all overseas ballots are "military".  Some of them will be civilians who happen to be out of the country at the time of the election.

[GeorgiaModerate]

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[GeorgiaModerate]

Is anyone else still in disbelief about this election?

Yes. Georgia was supposed to get a pro-choice Democratic Senator before Alabunga.

Yes, but we didn't have Roy Moore to run for the Republicans.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Moore is supposedly putting together "numerous evidence of voter fraud" to send to the secretary of state's office. Aka he's trying to disenfranchise as many black people as possible.

Essentially, trying to tell the SoS what a poor job he's done.  Nice strategy.

[GeorgiaModerate]

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[GeorgiaModerate]

Greedo, you've been wrong about everything you ever said, you can't write legible English and you don't have a grasp of basic morality. Just stop expressing yourself, you have nothing worth saying and you also can't say things because you suck at language.

I never said the race was rigged but that there seems to be voter fraud going around,Doug Jones did win but that guy said he and others came from all over the country to vote for Doug Jones.

How does a single guy saying something matter? if I say that I helped the Clinton campaign bus in 3,0000 Mexicans so she could win the popular vote, does that make you believe it?

This is just more partisanship at work. Very low burden of proof for accusations against Democrats, and the highest burden of proof for any and all accusations against Republicans.

Greedo's comments are a prime example of why you shouldn't believe everything you read on the internet. He doesn't really seem to question whether something is true or not so long as it makes him feel better about his political choices.

Anyone who believes that video or any similar report: I challenge you to report it to the Alabama Secretary of State's office and post their response here.  If you're not willing to do so, it shows you don't really believe it, so please don't mention it again.  In short: put up or shut up.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I think this thread is beginning to get off Alabama.  I realize everything can be related to everything else, but things are stretching a bit.

Well duh. the election is over so there's not as much to discuss regarding this race.

True.  The thread should probably be unstickied.

[GeorgiaModerate]

http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2017/12/alabama_counties_told_to_tabul.html#incart_river_index

Because of the close results, counties are being told to tabulate write-in votes. One step closer to certification.

Pure delay tactics.

Not at all.  It's a requirement of the state's election law when the number of write-ins exceeds the leader's margin, which it does in this case (22K vs 20K).  In theory, all the write-ins could be for the second-place candidate, in which case they would change the result.  They would be doing the same thing if Moore rather than Jones had won by 20K votes.

[GeorgiaModerate]

"Blank" got 9 votes (does this mean 9 people wrote in the word, or that 9 people left a blank ballot)
"a competent conservative: got 1 vote
"Neither" got 1 vote
Ronald Reagan got 1 vote
Bugs Bunny got 1 vote
Buddy the Elf got 1 vote
Red Squirrel got 1 vote
"Overvote" got 1 vote (does this mean someone wrote in the word, or that it is an actual overvote)

This Competent Conservative fellow sounds interesting.

But is he a stronger candidate than Generic Republican?

Yeah, there are some rumors about Generic Republicans' shady past, I won't post them here because they're extremely salacious, but even if these aren't proven, I think Competent Conservative is the stronger candidate here.

Very likely true, but unfortunately Competent Conservative has retired from politics.

[GeorgiaModerate]

So now Bill Mitchell is trying to convince everyone that Doug winning was all a part of Trump's plan or something. The GOP really can't accept the fact they lost?

https://twitter.com/mitchellvii/status/941623415605252096

If the GOP does get hammered next fall, I look forward to Bill's reactions.

[GeorgiaModerate]

OK, you NEED to see the write-ins for Madison county.

https://www.madisoncountyvotes.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/Write-In-Tabulation-12-12-17.pdf

Interesting that there's one write-in for each of Doug Jones and Roy Moore.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Remember that video people were freaking out about where someone supposedly "admitted" to bringing in voters from out of state? Well the AL Secretary of State's office looked into it and turns out...

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http://sos.alabama.gov/newsroom/secretary-state-john-h-merrill-releases-updated-information-questions-regarding-voter

Credit where credit is due to the SoS office.  They promptly investigated, and then issued a very clear statement of the facts.

[GeorgiaModerate]

With provisionals counted from about 10 counties, the current totals are:

Jones 672,932
Moore 650,844
Write-ins 22,820

Jones currently has 49.953%.  When all provisionals are counted, it's likely that he'll come very close to an outright majority (probably not quite, though).

[GeorgiaModerate]

Moore is now on Facebook blaming "Muslims and Marxists" for his loss. Because as we all know, Alabama is a hotbed of Muslims and Marxists.

They were bussed in from Mississippi, obviously.

That other hotbed.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I don't see why democrats are joyful about the results. Yes Doug won, but it took everything the democrat had to win a narrow victory against a guy who should have been blown out of the water.

What would be the appropriate reaction for you, sir?

At the end of the day, the Democrats have an extra senate seat. How it was achieved is irrelevant at this point.

My point is, y’all are acting like this means the death of the Republicans and 2018 is going to be a blood bath. That isn’t true. It took everything the Democratic Party has to bet a child rapist.

It's not just this one result that has people expecting the GOP to get hammered next year.  This is only one result of several dozen off-year and special elections that have shown dramatic shifts toward the Democrats.  While there have been a few that have shown shifts toward the Republicans, the vast majority have shifted D-ward.  In conjunction with the generic ballot polls, which have historically had good predictive value, thinks look bleak for the R's at this point.  There is still a lot of time left and things could change; but if current indications continue, election night 2018 will not be a happy time for Republicans.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I don't see why democrats are joyful about the results. Yes Doug won, but it took everything the democrat had to win a narrow victory against a guy who should have been blown out of the water.

What would be the appropriate reaction for you, sir?

At the end of the day, the Democrats have an extra senate seat. How it was achieved is irrelevant at this point.

My point is, y’all are acting like this means the death of the Republicans and 2018 is going to be a blood bath. That isn’t true. It took everything the Democratic Party has to bet a child rapist.

Even if Republicans had nominated a normal candidate, Jones wouldn't have lost by more than 10 points. Which for a Democrat in Alabama would have been an amazing result.

Jones would have lost by like 20% against Strange.

No.
Strange was tainted by the shady way in which Bentley appointed him. Multiple polls around the time of the Republican runoff showed him performing worse than Moore against Jones.

Yes. He's correct. Strange would have beat Jones by a substantial amount.

I think so too.  Strange was tainted, but not as badly as Moore.  It would have been easier for some R voters to hold their nose and vote for Strange.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Surely nobody expected Moore to bow out gracefully, did they?