Alabama Megathread 4: A New Hope

[Former Kentuckian]

Erick Erickson, Guy Benson, Stephen Miller and their crew on Twitter are trying to spin this as a Republican win because (paraphrasing): "Jones will only serve one term in a deadlocked Congress. Republicans dodged a bullet." It amazes me than anyone can think of this as anything other than a win for Democrats and Jones. With Jones in the Senate, Republicans can only risk losing one vote from their caucus, this eases the fight to win back the Senate in 2018 for Democrats, and it emboldens the grassroots and  will inspire more candidates to run all over.

To be fair, they may have dodged a bullet in the long run, because they won't have Moore hanging around their necks. Still a huge victory overall for Democrats, makes things much tougher for congressional GOP policy wise.

Also, you should probably reference which Stephen Miller you're talking about in case anyone gets confused.

Apologies. It's Stephen Miller from FoxNews.com. He's @redsteeze

[HisGrace]

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And thus, my point is proven.

You honestly believe that this is a productive form of political discourse to shout pedophile loud enough and long enough. That is a problem.

You're talking about this like he actually isn't a pedophile. If you don't want that to be a theme in the campaign try to find a Senate candidate next time who doesn't go around humping 14 year old girls legs like a dog.

And really, do you honestly believe a "productive form of political discourse" is suggesting that the 11th through 27th amendments be repealed, saying that the last time the country was great was when slavery was legal and calling for homosexuality to be criminalized? If you want productive political discourse find some non-ignoramuses to run for office.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

So, Roy Moore is still refusing to concede?

As far as I know, most states only allow a recount if the election is within a half percentage point, what is not the case here.

They want to dig for military ballots, lol.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I'm still astonished that Jefferson county went 68-30 for Jones... after only voting for Clinton by 7.

Jones really over-performed there.

I'm sure Birmingham proper was overrepresented in tonight's result. Not to mention the hugely popular new and young mayor of Birmingham working hard to get people out for Jones. The numbers were amazing. I can't wait until another generation passes and the South becomes the new battleground.

I gotta think Jones' win will be a big inspiration to Dems all over the South and maybe the midwest. They might still lose most of the time, but now there's that example to look to that it can actually happen. And that means a lot to have that inspiration.

Perez really needs to focus on rebuilding the Democratic Party's infrastructure down here. Birmingham, Atlanta, Charlotte, etc are the future of the party.

[LabourJersey]

So when will Jones get sworn in? Haven't read a clear date anywhere.

[NOVA Green]

We just got the most important Demographic breakdown from FOX:

Alabama fans: Moore +6
Auburn fans: Jones +2
Non-football fans: Jones +30

Well honestly the numbers seem a bit sketch all things considered, but I think we can both agree that both U of A and Auburn College students turned out and voted in large numbers for Doug Jones....

Where was Roy Moore during the Iron Bowl over Thanksgiving Weekend, and did it cost him the election?



As I posted elsewhere the band Alabama's anthem "Song of the South" would be a be a key part of the musical soundtrack for this special election"

Lyrics Below:


Song, song of the south
Sweet potato pie and I shut my mouth
Gone, gone with the wind
There ain't nobody looking back again

Cotton on the roadside, cotton in the ditch
We all picked the cotton but we never got rich
Daddy was a veteran, a southern democrat
They oughta get a rich man to vote like that

Sing it

Song, song of the south
Sweet potato pie and I shut my mouth
Gone, gone with the wind
There ain't nobody looking back again

Well somebody told us Wall Street fell
But we were so poor that we couldn't tell
Cotton was short and the weeds were tall
But Mr. Roosevelt's a gonna save us all

Well momma got sick and daddy got down
The county got the farm and they moved to town
Pappa got a job with the TVA
He bought a washing machine and then a Chevrolet

Sing it

Song, song of the south
Sweet potato pie and I shut my mouth
Gone, gone with the wind
There ain't nobody looking back again

Play it

Sing it

Song, song of the south
Sweet potato pie and I shut my mouth
Gone, gone with the wind
There ain't nobody looking back again

Song, song of the south

Gone, gone with the wind

Song, song of the south.
Sweet potato pie and I shut my mouth.
Song, song of the south.

Sweet potato pie and I shut my mouth.

Sing it

Song, song of the south
Sweet potato pie and I shut my mouth
Gone, gone with the wind
There ain't nobody looking back again

Song, song of the south
Sweet potato pie and I shut my mouth
Gone, gone with the wind
There ain't nobody looking back again

Here is Alabama's official music video, and I would strongly recommend some of y'all forking out a few bucks to buy a song or two, or even a couple CDs, like I did some 20 years back to support these artists.... and Hell if you're gonna' play in 'Bama better have a Fiddle in the Band (Sorry had to do a cross-over on the New South Southern Rock scene from the same time....)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lHdXQAQHjd8

It's actually pretty clear that the coalition of young voters, African-American voters, and Upper-Income suburban voters that won the election for Doug Jones in 'Bama is now an extremely portable strategy in the Heart of Dixie, even without running against a Pedo-Creep like Moore....

Tennessee obviously springs to mind for US-Senate in '18, and who knows maybe Corker switches Parties and runs as a Democrat for Governor of that Great State, and does the reverse cross-over scene like Dick Shelby (US-SEN-R-AL) and Rick Perry (Texas) did back in the early '90s when Yellow Dawgs were bucking hard 'Pub....

As I posted elsewhere regarding some campaign ad the Jones campaign posted a week or so before the election that was factually inaccurate, the politics of the region from East Tex to SC, is and always has been a dirty knife-fightin' kind of region....

Doug Jones drew blood where it hit hardest, and now Roy Moore is probably crapping bricks waiting until the day that the Feds kick in his door to bring him to justice for his crimes....

There is a new sheriff in town, who actually believes in Law and Order and the Rule of Law, and regardless of how many decades back you committed the crime, you will face a jury of your peers or in heaven for your sins....

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

So when will Jones get sworn in? Haven't read a clear date anywhere.

After the results are certified. In theory, this could mean as early as December 26, but in all likelihood the Senate will have adjourned for the holidays then, so it will likely be January 3rd, their first day back from break.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Trend map from 2016.



The fact that almost every county swung to Jones far below the average (the statewide swing was 29.3 points, but most counties are in the low 20s) suggests that turnout was a really big part of the story.

Also, LOL Lee County.

[NOVA Green]

So one last thought before I crash....

As I had posted elsewhere based upon polling numbers of White voters based upon religion affiliation, it appeared that Moore had a major issue, considering that only 60% of Alabama Whites consider themselves to be Evangelical Christians...

Jones was leading by some 20% among the 40% of White voters that don't consider themselves Evangelical Christians...

Needless to say there are a ton of Mainline Protestant and Catholic White voters in a heavily religious State like Alabama....

I mentioned elsewhere about the influence of the Cajun/ Catholic Vote in Metro Mobile, Moore's Anti-Semitic comments from a few months back, not to mention his wife's bizarre stunt last night where it appeared that she was accusing reports of being Jews and saying "But we have a best friend that is a Jew, our Lawyer", Mitt Romney jumping in a few days back to call out Moore on his crap....

Point is that going after every and all religious and ethnic minorities isn't a winning strategy, even in Alabama which in theory might be slightly more favorable because of both the high concentration of Evangelical Whites, as well as one of the most inelastic and polarized voting patterns by "Race", the dirty underside of Old Folks in 'Bama that still believe that George Wallace was the Man back in the days.

Honestly, thinking the religious vote is what sunk Moore more than anything else....

Interfaith communities against bigotry and intolerance and looking at the history of this dude, and basically say we'll go with the normal candidate in the race, or if we can't in moral conscience support the Democrat, we at least didn't vote for Creepo and yes that is a default to a Dem win, but hey he's the Cop on the side of law, as opposed to the crooked DA who violates the very law he was upholden to serve.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

We just got the most important Demographic breakdown from FOX:

Alabama fans: Moore +6
Auburn fans: Jones +2
Non-football fans: Jones +30

Well honestly the numbers seem a bit sketch all things considered, but I think we can both agree that both U of A and Auburn College students turned out and voted in large numbers for Doug Jones....

Where was Roy Moore during the Iron Bowl over Thanksgiving Weekend, and did it cost him the election?



As I posted elsewhere the band Alabama's anthem "Song of the South" would be a be a key part of the musical soundtrack for this special election"

Lyrics Below:


Song, song of the south
Sweet potato pie and I shut my mouth
Gone, gone with the wind
There ain't nobody looking back again

Cotton on the roadside, cotton in the ditch
We all picked the cotton but we never got rich
Daddy was a veteran, a southern democrat
They oughta get a rich man to vote like that

Sing it

Song, song of the south
Sweet potato pie and I shut my mouth
Gone, gone with the wind
There ain't nobody looking back again

Well somebody told us Wall Street fell
But we were so poor that we couldn't tell
Cotton was short and the weeds were tall
But Mr. Roosevelt's a gonna save us all

Well momma got sick and daddy got down
The county got the farm and they moved to town
Pappa got a job with the TVA
He bought a washing machine and then a Chevrolet

Sing it

Song, song of the south
Sweet potato pie and I shut my mouth
Gone, gone with the wind
There ain't nobody looking back again

Play it

Sing it

Song, song of the south
Sweet potato pie and I shut my mouth
Gone, gone with the wind
There ain't nobody looking back again

Song, song of the south

Gone, gone with the wind

Song, song of the south.
Sweet potato pie and I shut my mouth.
Song, song of the south.

Sweet potato pie and I shut my mouth.

Sing it

Song, song of the south
Sweet potato pie and I shut my mouth
Gone, gone with the wind
There ain't nobody looking back again

Song, song of the south
Sweet potato pie and I shut my mouth
Gone, gone with the wind
There ain't nobody looking back again

Here is Alabama's official music video, and I would strongly recommend some of y'all forking out a few bucks to buy a song or two, or even a couple CDs, like I did some 20 years back to support these artists.... and Hell if you're gonna' play in 'Bama better have a Fiddle in the Band (Sorry had to do a cross-over on the New South Southern Rock scene from the same time....)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lHdXQAQHjd8

It's actually pretty clear that the coalition of young voters, African-American voters, and Upper-Income suburban voters that won the election for Doug Jones in 'Bama is now an extremely portable strategy in the Heart of Dixie, even without running against a Pedo-Creep like Moore....

Tennessee obviously springs to mind for US-Senate in '18, and who knows maybe Corker switches Parties and runs as a Democrat for Governor of that Great State, and does the reverse cross-over scene like Dick Shelby (US-SEN-R-AL) and Rick Perry (Texas) did back in the early '90s when Yellow Dawgs were bucking hard 'Pub....

As I posted elsewhere regarding some campaign ad the Jones campaign posted a week or so before the election that was factually inaccurate, the politics of the region from East Tex to SC, is and always has been a dirty knife-fightin' kind of region....

Doug Jones drew blood where it hit hardest, and now Roy Moore is probably crapping bricks waiting until the day that the Feds kick in his door to bring him to justice for his crimes....

There is a new sheriff in town, who actually believes in Law and Order and the Rule of Law, and regardless of how many decades back you committed the crime, you will face a jury of your peers or in heaven for your sins....

That is an awesome song, I pulled it up right after I got home and saw Jones had won.

I doubt TN is the best state to pull that off in, though the circumstances might make it work. But certainly in GA and MS, both with a much higher floor or potential floor to bounce from, especially in terms of Presidential campaigns.

[SPQR]

So, did IceSpear exile himself at last?

[Cactus Jack]

So, did IceSpear exile himself at last?

Actually, he apologized and redacted his trolling earlier tonight. Credit where credit is due.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

So, most of the forum is now in love with the state of Alabama because they did not elect (by a margin of 1.5%) a pedophile.

How long before most of us will return to our old "lol stupid Alabama" routine? I mean mere days ago this forum was filled with "the worst state ever, about to elect a pedophile to the Senate".


And I'm saying this as somebody who always avoided subscribing to the "logic" presented just above.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

So, most of the forum is now in love with the state of Alabama because they did not elect (by a margin of 1.5%) a pedophile.

How long before most of us will return to our old "lol stupid Alabama" routine? I mean mere days ago this forum was filled with "the worst state ever, about to elect a pedophile to the Senate".


And I'm saying this as somebody who always avoided subscribing to the "logic" presented just above.

Your are ruining the fun.

[Blair]

So, most of the forum is now in love with the state of Alabama because they did not elect (by a margin of 1.5%) a pedophile.

How long before most of us will return to our old "lol stupid Alabama" routine? I mean mere days ago this forum was filled with "the worst state ever, about to elect a pedophile to the Senate".


And I'm saying this as somebody who always avoided subscribing to the "logic" presented just above.

About two days.

It's like the situation with the polling; most of the polling for this race was not great because it was a special election, in an underpolled state, with a lot of bad polling companies, but everyone (including me) will still spend hours caring about every poll

[Inmate Trump]

What happens if Moore never concedes?

[ursulahx]

What happens if Moore never concedes?

Presumably once the results are ratified he doesn’t need to. The train will have left the station at that point.

[AtorBoltox]

What happens if Moore never concedes?

The concession of the losing candidate is just convention, it doesn't actually matter

[Adam Griffin]

Here's a few maps. The first 3 should be self-explanatory. The fourth map uses the benchmarks (margins) for each county that NYT put out yesterday afternoon for a very close race, and then compares the final margins in each county to that. It's worth noting that as a whole/statewide, NYT's benchmarks were quite good - and even held up well in most of the counties.

Green means Moore's margin was less than expected/Jones' was greater than expected.

Red means Moore's margin was greater than expected/Jones' was less than expected.

Some very clear patterns but not inherently tied to any partisan or racial patterns in the state:

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

What happens if Moore never concedes?

Man, Moore's twitter is real fun now.

[Mr.Phips]

I can't wait to see the results by congressional district.  I wouldn't be surprised if Jones only won AL-07.  Jones probably got 45% in the super Republican AL-06.

[Brittain33]

Look up Miles on Twitter. He posted Congressional maps there. Jones only won AL-7.

[Phony Moderate]

Hilarious night. I was optimistic after Jones took an early lead in the first few returns (which seemed to be from a rather representative sample of counties) then was pretty much resigned to a Moore victory when he was about 8% ahead with two-thirds in. But then I noticed that a lot of Montgomery was still out, and the gap proceeded to close. Turned on CNN, and saw John King and Wolf Blitzer rambling at their touch screen thingy, and was bemused that they weren't pointing out that a lot of Montgomery was still to report...but I hadn't reloaded the page (which I think was the Washington Post) that I had the results map on.

All in all a classic U.S. election night, a true back-and-forth.

[Gass3268]

We just got the most important Demographic breakdown from FOX:

Alabama fans: Moore +6
Auburn fans: Jones +2
Non-football fans: Jones +30

The Charles Barkley endorsement was pivotal.

[riceowl]

Trump tweeted again

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