Alabama Megathread 4: A New Hope

[Anna Komnene]

I think I lost a few years of my life watching those returns, but it was totally worth it. Jones ran an amazing campaign and his volunteers did a wonderful job. It never would have happened without all that hard work.

[Anna Komnene]

I'm still astonished that Jefferson county went 68-30 for Jones... after only voting for Clinton by 7.

Jones really over-performed there.

I'm sure Birmingham proper was overrepresented in tonight's result. Not to mention the hugely popular new and young mayor of Birmingham working hard to get people out for Jones. The numbers were amazing. I can't wait until another generation passes and the South becomes the new battleground.

I gotta think Jones' win will be a big inspiration to Dems all over the South and maybe the midwest. They might still lose most of the time, but now there's that example to look to that it can actually happen. And that means a lot to have that inspiration.

[Anna Komnene]

We can’t forget that nearly half of Alabama voters voted for Moore, a pedophile, who lost by only a few thousand votes against an uncontroversial and respectable man. The overwhelming majority of Alabaman White voters cast their ballot for the pedophile. The question was never whether all Alabama voters are deplorable pedophile apologists, since minorities weren’t going to vote for Moore, but whether White Alabamans are pedophile apologists. They’ve proven that they are - by overwhelming margins.

While the racial polarization is clear, it's a pretty reductionist argument and unhelpful. The enthusiasm in the black community and the unity was very important, but all of the white voters, both men and women who came out to vote for Jones were important too. Jones wouldn't have won the election without them. Everyone in the coalition was needed. In the end, I think it was basically Jones' superior ground game that got him over the top, in both Birmingham and Montgomery but also in Huntsville and some of the suburbs. The share of the young vote was much higher than what the polls were predicting too.

[Anna Komnene]

It seems that certain people can't accept that their side can possibly lose without it being cheating:

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It'd be fun to hear their explanation for how these supposed MS blacks got registered to vote in AL and got AL photo IDs in order to vote. I swear some people don't even use their brains.

[Anna Komnene]

I don't know why he made inroads there, but Democrats basically went from having no campaign whatsoever in Alabama for years to having a massive, well funded, volunteer-stocked campaign. Maybe when the Republican is disliked enough and the Democrat actually bothers to campaign and ask Alabamians for their votes, they're more open to actually doing it than people give them credit for.

[Anna Komnene]

I wish I could have been off work so I could have seen the results as they came in.

I think Nate Cohn's estimated vote tracker on NYT nearly gave me a heart attack a few times. It had jumped back and forth from about 50% chance Jones win to 60% chance Moore win that when it started looking better for Jones, I couldn't even feel confident about it! But when it was called was just straight euphoria.

[Anna Komnene]

OK, you NEED to see the write-ins for Madison county.

https://www.madisoncountyvotes.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/Write-In-Tabulation-12-12-17.pdf

Interesting that there's one write-in for each of Doug Jones and Roy Moore.

I wonder if those votes are supposed to be added to the official tally for Jones/Moore. A handful here and there isn't going to change much of anything but still.

[Anna Komnene]

Remember that video people were freaking out about where someone supposedly "admitted" to bringing in voters from out of state? Well the AL Secretary of State's office looked into it and turns out...

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http://sos.alabama.gov/newsroom/secretary-state-john-h-merrill-releases-updated-information-questions-regarding-voter

[Anna Komnene]

So what I'm getting out of that is...

Muslims, gays, marxists, hispanics, and blacks: 1

Roy Moore: 0

[Anna Komnene]

2 more days until Certification day. Hoping that Merrill doesn't pull any tricks to try to elevate Moore's position.

His office has been sassing Roy Moore for the past week, so I kinda doubt he has any interest in pulling those shenanigans.

[Anna Komnene]

My point I am making is a lot of democrats are using this race to say that 2018 is going to be a blood bath for the Republicans. When this race was about much more than the republicans. It was about Moore as a person. Don't get me wrong, I think Republicans will not do great in 2018, but I don't think Democrats are going to blow them out of the water.

I don't really care to use this race to discuss national trends, but I'm interested to see what impact this win could have for Southern Democrats in 2018 and beyond. Roy Moore or no, the Doug Jones campaign put a lot of blood, sweat, tears... and money into winning this race. The amount of money they raised and the amount of volunteers they had were light years beyond what Democrats have had there in a long time. His campaign was pretty much on par with the biggest AL GOP campaign operations. Having a Democrat on the air waves, making calls, and knocking on doors asking people for their vote isn't something that happens very often in the state or in the whole region. Sometimes, when you give people your pitch and ask them for their vote, they're more open to it than people usually think. I'm sure there's a lot of Jones voters who will switch back to the GOP next time, but he may have also won over some voters that could turn out for Democrats in future elections.

It could be inspiring for Democrats in other Southern states too. SC, MS, TN... who knows? I know what you are going to say - 'But Roy Moore!' I get it, but the other side is - Doug Jones won. People who aren't into politics don't care about things like the margin. It's just the result that matters. Frankly, a Democrat winning a Senate race in Alabama... it's just not something that happens everyday. When you live in a place or an area where you party never wins, people get disillusioned and don't participate in politics. They just give up.

Doug Jones could give some people more inspiration and hope. That candidate who never would have jumped into a race might decide to give it a go. That volunteer or campaign organizer that never would have gone out to knock on doors might decide to go out and knock on a few after all. That voter who would have stayed home because they don't believe there's any point might decide to go out and vote and give it a shot. I'm not saying that Democrats are going to start winning more elections statewide, but that kind of effort can help make things closer and it can help in local races and boost parties in the state legislatures... and heck, it's just nice to get more people participating. So yeah, it's just one election but it could still be meaningful. At the end of the day, I'm just glad Doug Jones won because he deserved it.