Alabama Megathread 4: A New Hope

[heatcharger]

Third one was getting too big.

NYT Results Page.



This is the one where Kenobi dies.

[Former Kentuckian]

I'm still in shock. I'm so happy, but it still feels too good to be true. Senator Doug Jones!

[Sestak]

PRAISE DOUG SKYWALKER, SAVIOR OF ALABAMA!

[smoltchanov]

I'm still in shock. I'm so happy, but it still feels too good to be true. Senator Doug Jones!

The same. Jones, obviously, will be heavy underdog in 2020, but it will be in 2020.

[Wisconsin+17]

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And thus, my point is proven.

You honestly believe that this is a productive form of political discourse to shout pedophile loud enough and long enough. That is a problem.

What you and many others here are showing that you aren't amenable to reason in any way shape or form. I was surprised to find the blasts of hate towards Moore, but perhaps I shouldn't be given what his values are and how they differ from yours and from many on the forum.

You want a culture war? I guess you figure that you've won. We'll see how that goes.

Personally I see this as reinforcing a ton of bad habits that were papered over by certain advantages that might not always be available. Lots of money can disguise bad and ineffectual strategies. Look at Jeb!

Do you guys really want to be remembered as the Jeb! folks with your drumbeat?

[junior chįmp]

So....anyone checked the results of the precincts around Gadsden Mall?

[IceAgeComing]

To reply to Kenobi's thing before I actually get some sleep: I'm not talking about the percentage chance thing or the margin which I've always found laughable enough to stick into the mode where it swings around all over the place because it amuses me - although notably they were always pointing in the right direction even if the impact was exaggerated while you, eh, called the election for the wrong man.  However the other bit of the model: the bit about what votes were remaining to be counted and what already had been counted were perfectly right in terms of general trend if not magnitude: and paying attention to that is what I think made those of us watching elsewhere feel pretty sure pretty early on that things were looking like a very close result but with Jones in front which is what we got.  The wild swings seems to have been because of turnout differentials more than anything else; at least that's what I thought at the time.  Again usually they do this with races where they have precinct level data which is a million times better but they did the best they could with what they had.

Your model caused you to make the wrong decision, which means that either its core principles are wrong; the assumptions that you based it on are wrong or that this election was incredibly odd and unusual.  I don't think that its the latter: indeed a fair few of us thought that it felt oddly similar the to Virginia Governors election: in terms of the fact that it seemed that Jones was leading most of the night despite being behind until 90% of the votes had been counted.  So therefore it must be one of the first two: and after getting a good nights sleep you probably ought to have a close look at it.

Incidentally the only way that Moore can get a recount is if it closes within 0.5%: so he basically needs to find something like 14,000 votes with zero election day votes to be counted.  The provision that allows candidates to pay for a recount only seems to apply to State offices, and not Federal ones.

By the way; this was an election worth staying up until 6am for!

[Alabama_Indy10]

So....anyone checked the results of the precincts around Gadsden Mall?

Moore did win Etowah County 59-39

[Holmes]

These margins are understated:

Jefferson: D+38
Madison: D+17
Tuscaloosa: D+16
Mobile: D+14
Lee: D+17
Shelby: R+14

Total collapse in Shelby. I would say only Baldwin (R+26) voted more for Moore than those counties would suggest, which might be an effect of the Trump rally. Jones really performed well where he needed to.

[Former Kentuckian]

I hope we never have to see Moore's cowboy cosplay ever again

[Sestak]

Can someone pin this thread and unpin the last one???


SENATOR DOUG, WHOOP WHOOP!!

[Xing]

To those asking where the detractors are, here I am. I never really believed it could happen. And I'll fully and happily admit that I was dead wrong. I doubt Jones will get re-elected, but even given how awful Moore was, he was a stellar candidate, clearly.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Just looking at the exit polls... Doug won 74% of the moderate vote and 59% of the 18-24 year old vote. I have faith that the young generation won't morph into the Hitler youth.

[BuckeyeNut]

So, who does Trump blame? I'm thinking McConnell. Doubt he resigns his seat but could go out as Majority Leader...

[Badger]

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And thus, my point is proven.

You honestly believe that this is a productive form of political discourse to shout pedophile loud enough and long enough. That is a problem.

What you and many others here are showing that you aren't amenable to reason in any way shape or form. I was surprised to find the blasts of hate towards Moore, but perhaps I shouldn't be given what his values are and how they differ from yours and from many on the forum.

You want a culture war? I guess you figure that you've won. We'll see how that goes.

Personally I see this as reinforcing a ton of bad habits that were papered over by certain advantages that might not always be available. Lots of money can disguise bad and ineffectual strategies. Look at Jeb!

Do you guys really want to be remembered as the Jeb! folks with your drumbeat?

Culture war against folks who blindly and shamelessly defend serial sexual offenders out of blind party loyalty, and denigrate people who disagree with them as some "Jeb!/Cuck/non-Chad idiot meme?

Yeah, I'll take that fight 7 days a week and twice on Sundays.

[Holmes]

Wiregrass didn't come through for Moore either. Really the only place that fully stood by him were non-Huntsville area Northern Alabama.

[junior chįmp]

So....anyone checked the results of the precincts around Gadsden Mall?

Moore did win Etowah County 59-39

Lulz

[Sestak]

https://twitter.com/AndreSegers/status/940802136727867392

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[Cactus Jack]

Have to love the new title, considering I've been blasting Victory Celebration from Episode VI all night.

[BlueSwan]

Thank God for black people and black women in particular. The white "evangelicals" would vote for Satan (R) over Jesus (D) any day of the week as proven by this election. They should be ashamed of themselves.

[Canis]

I wanna see the CD results

[Anna Komnene]

I think I lost a few years of my life watching those returns, but it was totally worth it. Jones ran an amazing campaign and his volunteers did a wonderful job. It never would have happened without all that hard work.

[ElectionsGuy]

Birmingham metro (Jefferson + Shelby counties)

Jones: 176,773 (62.0%)
Moore: 102,733 (36.1%)

Compared to 2016...

Trump: 207,788 (51.2%)
Clinton: 179,850 (44.4%)

Considering Trump already did poor for a Republican in this area, Moore really did outdo him.

[Koharu]

Thank God for black people and black women in particular. The white "evangelicals" would vote for Satan (R) over Jesus (D) any day of the week as proven by this election. They should be ashamed of themselves.

Precisely this. I wish I could find all of those women and give them each a hug or cookie or something. They are the real heroes of this victory.

[Sestak]

By the way, a HUGE THANK YOU to everyone who donated to, made calls for, or campiagned for Jones. And of course everyone who came out to vote for him, underhanded voter suppression tactics be damned.