Alabama Megathread 4: A New Hope

[Holmes]

These margins are understated:

Jefferson: D+38
Madison: D+17
Tuscaloosa: D+16
Mobile: D+14
Lee: D+17
Shelby: R+14

Total collapse in Shelby. I would say only Baldwin (R+26) voted more for Moore than those counties would suggest, which might be an effect of the Trump rally. Jones really performed well where he needed to.

[Holmes]

Wiregrass didn't come through for Moore either. Really the only place that fully stood by him were non-Huntsville area Northern Alabama.

[Holmes]

Moore didn't visit Mobile or Shelby counties in the last month of the election. Basically "Hillary never visited Wisconsin" but on the other side of the equation.

[Holmes]

Just looking at the exit polls... Doug won 74% of the moderate vote and 59% of the 18-24 year old vote. I have faith that the young generation won't morph into the Hitler youth.

I'd like to meet the 25% of "moderates" that voted for Moore, lol.

They're Republicans. Probably concentrated in Shelby/Jefferson burbs, Madison, Tuscaloosa and Mobile.

[Holmes]

Raw turnout change between 2014-2017:

The Black Belt and Birmingham turnout won the election for Jones.

Yes. Madison, Tuscaloosa, Lee and Mobile too. Also worth noting the huge swing in Shelby with turnout actually increasing.

[Holmes]

It seems that certain people can't accept that their side can possibly lose without it being cheating:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Anyone else hearing this? Anyone? Anything to this rumor? Can anyone confirm? Just reporting.

Doesn't Alabama have voter ID requirements?

[Holmes]

Not sure if this is real or not, but a couple of their other articles look like they aren't satire:

Nick Saban came in 3rd
http://dailysnark.com/nick-saban-came-3rd-place-alabama-senate-election-20k-votes/

Really don't think it's real. Saban did not get 96% of the write-in vote?

[Holmes]

I wish I could have been off work so I could have seen the results as they came in.

The first returns were pro-Jones. Jefferson county was like 85% Jones, Mobile, Tuscaloosa and Madison were >65% Jones. After about 20% reporting, Moore took the lead as the rural counties started reporting everything and Jones' counties were being slow. Montgomery and Dallas took forever. At one point Moore was 8% ahead. Then his counties all finished and what was remaining was all Jones counties, along with some Baldwin and Shelby. Jones slowly caught up and then overtook Moore. The last county to finish counting was Mobile.

[Holmes]

Here are my initial calculations on the white vote. Thankfully, AL records registrations by race, which made my starting position more accurate than it would have been otherwise - not sure if they release voter turnout by race and county in the weeks following an election, but if so, that'll help make this projection more accurate.

These two maps show the same thing: the one on the left was the first one I made with 5-point gradients, but I decided to break it down into 1-point gradients on the right to make the differences between counties more visible (at the expense of making every county where whites were <15% D colorless)

Thank you!

Very interesting to see some of Jones' worst counties actually didn't have his worst performances with whites. Likewise, some counties he actually won gave him worse numbers with whites.

And Lee county being Jones' second best performance with whites is surprising and should worry Republicans.

[Holmes]

Jones job in 2020 is to keep his support in those Birmingham burbs (including Shelby) along with Madison, Tuscaloosa, Mobile and Lee, and to make inroads in northern Alabama. And to keep black turn out high, obviously.

[Holmes]

Doug has a gay son?


FF!!

Yeah and he's hot.