Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[philly09]

Not an approval poll, but a very Pro-Trump poll from Remington Polls.


https://remingtonresearchgroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/National_Public_Opinion_06-04-2020.pdf

[emailking]

Texas: PPP, June 3-4, 682 voters

Approve 46
Disapprove 50

Biden 48, Trump 48

Another poll showing a tossup in TX. If he loses, that's ball game.

[wbrocks67]

Not an approval poll, but a very Pro-Trump poll from Remington Polls.


https://remingtonresearchgroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/National_Public_Opinion_06-04-2020.pdf

omg, +8 on handling the protests and riots? wowzers. outlier is an understatement when the 3 other polls we've gotten this week literally have him -23, -23, and -34.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Not an approval poll, but a very Pro-Trump poll from Remington Polls.


https://remingtonresearchgroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/National_Public_Opinion_06-04-2020.pdf

It’s a blatant push poll, but OK.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We still have 6 mnths left for Trump to pull up his approvals,  approvals wont matter until after Labor day.

Anything can happen in a VBM election,  not an in person election

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Not an approval poll, but a very Pro-Trump poll from Remington Polls.


https://remingtonresearchgroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/National_Public_Opinion_06-04-2020.pdf

Rip it up, stomp on it, douse it in gasoline, light it on fire, and then take the ashes and dump them into the pacific ocean.

[woodley park]

Not an approval poll, but a very Pro-Trump poll from Remington Polls.


https://remingtonresearchgroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/National_Public_Opinion_06-04-2020.pdf

It’s a blatant push poll, but OK.

There have been reports that Trump’s campaign will intentionally cook up a pro-Trump pill to calm the President down, as he has been incensed by mainstream pollsters showing Biden with a growing lead. Could this have been one of those?

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Polls are useless at this moment, because they are about to go up with the economy starting to hum again. Nice one.

[GP270watch]

 It's more interesting to see how people react to polls than thinking they actually mean something. Trump is a weird politician. He's an idiot whisperer. The people who support him project or ignore all kinds of qualities on to him. Their belief of what he is and who he is is fully formed and nothing really changes that.

 Democrats will win or lose based on who they can turn out. I suspect Trump will turn out a similar base to what he did in 2016.

[Person Man]

It's more interesting to see how people react to polls than thinking they actually mean something. Trump is a weird politician. He's an idiot whisperer. The people who support him project or ignore all kinds of qualities on to him. Their belief of what he is and who he is is fully formed and nothing really changes that.

 Democrats will win or lose based on who they can turn out. I suspect Trump will turn out a similar base to what he did in 2016.

Hasn't been that the case since 2004?

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Trump's approval on the handling of Floyd situation & protests is cratering BIGLY.

[pbrower2a]

Michigan, EPIC/MRI:

Trump favorability 41, unfavorability 56
Performance rating: positive 42, negative 56 (I am taking this as approval)
COVID-19 positive 41, negative 58
Biden 53/Trump 41

https://www.wlns.com/news/michigan/poll-gives-biden-a-double-digit-lead-over-trump-in-michigan/

Trump approval 50-54%
Trump approval positive but under 50%
ties are in white
Trump approval negative but disapproval under 50%
Trump disapproval 50-54%
Trump disapproval 55% or higher

[GeorgiaModerate]

NBC/WSJ, May 28-June 2, 1000 adults (change from April)

Approve 45 (-1)
Disapprove 53 (+2)

Strongly approve 31 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 47 (+3)

Biden 49 (nc), Trump 42 (nc)

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/dcg1114/status/1269640739753021442

[Bidenworth2020]

Michigan, EPIC/MRI:

Trump favorability 41, unfavorability 56
Performance rating: positive 42, negative 56 (I am taking this as approval)
COVID-19 positive 41, negative 58
Biden 53/Trump 41

https://www.wlns.com/news/michigan/poll-gives-biden-a-double-digit-lead-over-trump-in-michigan/

Trump approval 50-54%
Trump approval positive but under 50%
ties are in white
Trump approval negative but disapproval under 50%
Trump disapproval 50-54%
Trump disapproval 55% or higher

Are you seeing crosstabs for this poll?

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/dcg1114/status/1269640739753021442

What would be interesting is to see how much of a benefit of the doubt Romney got though it appears that Obamas
Benefit of the Doubt made up the margin.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Polls are useless at this moment, because they are about to go up with the economy starting to hum again. Nice one.

You know, I almost admire the optimism and patience that you, SN, and probably other Trump supporters have. "Next week" always seems to be worth looking forward to. If you were a Democrat though your wrists would be in pain from all the hand-wringing. Sometimes it's good to have grounded expectations, like us, though. It somewhat helps curb disappointment.

Trump's approval on the handling of Floyd situation & protests is cratering BIGLY.

But antifa and riots! Just wait until next week numbers, libtards!

[pbrower2a]

https://twitter.com/dcg1114/status/1269640739753021442

What would be interesting is to see how much of a benefit of the doubt Romney got though it appears that Obama's
Benefit of the Doubt made up the margin.

It is hard to imagine Presidents in current decades next to each other than Obama and Trump. What remains true in America since 2012 include:

(1) extreme polarization of the electorate
(2) the presence of well-established political camps
(3) no major change in the values of Americans except on pressing events
(4) an incumbent President still shapes political attitudes more than can a challenger

Biden is not Romney, and Trump is even less Obama. But assume that this model fits current approval and disapproval numbers. 96-1 against an incumbent politician "strong disapproval" (47%)  and 88-12 against someone who has simple disapproval (6%) sticks Trump with only an insignificant 0.46% among those strongly disapproving of Trump to vote for him. and 44.16% of the total vote going to Biden. Among those showing 'mere' disapproval, one gets 0.72% of the total vote. About 1% of Americans will vote for Trump despite disapproving of him. People will need veritable conversion experiences to vote for Trump after disapproving him now. Such happens, but never enough. It was far easier for someone to have a conversion that makes one more likely to vote for Mitt Romney (let us say becoming a Mormon) than to have a conversion to the idea that Trump's misogyny is a good thing. Mormonism promotes personal morality that Donald Trump does not have.

(Allegedly Trump is a Presbyterian, and Presbyterian churches do not promote gross amorality).

Yes, I will readily vote for a devout believer in a religious tradition not mine who has a moral compass over someone irreligious or with weak religious values who is a moral reprobate. 

Most objective assessments hold that Obama was an above-average President, and it is practically impossible to defeat even a mediocre incumbent. Here's my assessment of Mitt Romney as an opponent to Barack Obama as a challenger to such an incumbent: he was one of the strongest challengers to an incumbent not a political wreck... ever. A hint: Mitt Romney got a higher share of the popular vote against Obama than Donald Trump got in an open-seat election. Yes, Mitt Romney would have crushed Hillary Clinton in the Electoral College and gotten a majority of the popular vote had he faced her in 2016. Hillary Clinton showed that she was far less shrewd a political campaigner than Obama, and Mitt Romney would have never had trouble with accusations of doing horrible things to women. OK, like many liberals I am still shocked that Donald Trump, a complete neophyte in politics and a thoroughly disgusting person could get elected President.     

It is apparently next to impossible to win anyone who strongly disapproves of an incumbent.  Figuring that people who viscerally despise the President (strongly disapprove) will split in 2020 against Trump as they did against Obama, such people will give Trump only an insignificant 0.46% of the popular vote. 6% disapprove of him (call that 'being uncomfortable of him)... and such people will give him a mere 0.78% of the popular vote.  In contrast, Biden would get 44.16% of the total vote from people who strongly disapprove of Trump and 5.28% of the popular vote from those who simply disapprove of Trump. That is 49.54% of the popular vote right there as a reasonable lock for Biden.

In my experience, the undecided vote near the time of the election swings toward the eventual loser -- but ineffectively. Before any perception of things being out of control fully sets in (that will either set or be reversed), approval for Trump is at 45%.

The reasonable hope for Trump is that he could win re-election without a nationwide plurality as he did in 2016. But so far he projects to get only 42% of the vote. He would need to sweep the undecided to prevent Biden from getting an unambiguous majority of the popular vote. 

OK: a dynamic applies... 80% of Americans think that things  are out of control, and 15% think that things are under control. Blame can be shared between Republicans and Democrats, but the President gets most of the fault. President Trump does not foster confidence in himself. He cannot blame Democrats for bungling the response to COVID-19, which has already killed more Americans than combat in any American war except for World War II or the Civil War. He chose to get that blasphemous photo op at a church at which he is not a member and without the consent of that church by driving off protesters along the way. He spoke of the desirability of having a government agency to monitor and harass opponents and dissidents without calling such a secret police... which is exactly what it is. He has effectively backed police brutality that any responsible state or local government abhors. Trump needs to change everything about himself to establish credibility to most Americans. People his age rarely change significantly except to deteriorate from senility.

[wbrocks67]

Civiqs tracker, 6/5

Trump job approval: 40/57 (-17)

Alaska: 47/50 (-3)
Arizona: 40/57 (-17)
Colorado: 36/61 (-25)
Florida: 45/52 (-7)
Georgia: 44/53 (-9)
Iowa: 45/52 (-7)
Kansas: 49/48 (+1)
Michigan: 41/56 (-15)
Minnesota: 37/60 (-23)
Nevada: 37/60 (-23)
New Hampshire: 37/59 (-22)
New Mexico: 44/53 (-9)
North Carolina: 43/54 (-11)
Ohio: 45/53 (-8)
Pennsylvania: 42/54 (-12)
Texas: 47/50 (-3)
Virginia: 39/58 (-19)
Wisconsin: 43/54 (-11)

https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_trump?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true

[GeorgiaModerate]

CNN/SSRS, June 2-5, 1259 adults including 1125 RV (1-month change)

Adults:

Approve 38 (-7)
Disapprove 57 (+6)

This is Trump's worst showing in this poll since Jan. 2019 (37/57).

RV:

Approve 40 (-6)
Disapprove 57 (+6)

Biden 55 (+4), Trump 41 (-5)

Gender gap: Trump leads among men 48/46, but trails among women 35/62.

[woodley park]

That is an ugly poll for Trump, no matter how you try and spin it. Even the lead amongst men is basically a wash at this point.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Civiqs tracker, 6/5

Trump job approval: 40/57 (-17)

Alaska: 47/50 (-3)
Arizona: 40/57 (-17)
Colorado: 36/61 (-25)
Florida: 45/52 (-7)
Georgia: 44/53 (-9)
Iowa: 45/52 (-7)
Kansas: 49/48 (+1)
Michigan: 41/56 (-15)
Minnesota: 37/60 (-23)
Nevada: 37/60 (-23)
New Hampshire: 37/59 (-22)
New Mexico: 44/53 (-9)
North Carolina: 43/54 (-11)
Ohio: 45/53 (-8)
Pennsylvania: 42/54 (-12)
Texas: 47/50 (-3)
Virginia: 39/58 (-19)
Wisconsin: 43/54 (-11)

https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_trump?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true

Forget Texas and Georgia, watchout dark horse Alaska

[woodley park]

Civiqs tracker, 6/5

Trump job approval: 40/57 (-17)

Alaska: 47/50 (-3)
Arizona: 40/57 (-17)
Colorado: 36/61 (-25)
Florida: 45/52 (-7)
Georgia: 44/53 (-9)
Iowa: 45/52 (-7)
Kansas: 49/48 (+1)
Michigan: 41/56 (-15)
Minnesota: 37/60 (-23)
Nevada: 37/60 (-23)
New Hampshire: 37/59 (-22)
New Mexico: 44/53 (-9)
North Carolina: 43/54 (-11)
Ohio: 45/53 (-8)
Pennsylvania: 42/54 (-12)
Texas: 47/50 (-3)
Virginia: 39/58 (-19)
Wisconsin: 43/54 (-11)

https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_trump?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true

Forget Texas and Georgia, watchout dark horse Alaska

Realistically, what are the odds that Trump is absolutely tanking in Colorado, Arizona, and Nevada, but has a 44% approval rating in New Mexico?

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1269980040495861760

[Beet]

Wake me up when the Gallup poll comes out. Three of their last four polls had Trump at a record high approval of around 49%. And even if these other polls are right, he would only be reverting to a 2019 mean. If this week is a trough for him, it'll still be higher than the Ukraine scandal trough as recently as October 2019.