Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[GeorgiaModerate]

PPP (national): April 23-24, 1403 RV (change from early March)

Approve 43 (+2)
Disapprove 53 (-2)

[BudgieForce]

PPP (national): April 23-24, 1403 RV (change from early March)

Approve 43 (+2)
Disapprove 53 (-2)

Glad to see PPP being active again. I know people like to rag on them, but they were one of the best pollsters in 2012.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

MSN polls were right except in LA and MS, there is a leftward trend of the nation

[pbrower2a]

Iowa: PPP, April 30-May 1, 1222 voters

Approve 49
Disapprove 47

Trump 48
Biden 46

Senate: Ernst 43, Greenfield 42

Trump has more of a chance of losing an electoral map in which the Democrat wins 400+ electoral votes than winning at all. I am not putting the Civiqs or MSN polls on this map, as they imply different methodology. They look horrible for Trump.

Much unlike 2016 and more as in 2018, Iowa is in play. Joni Ernst is vulnerable. Much unlike the case in states from Kentucky and North Carolina to the north and from Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Illinois to the Atlantic coast, Iowa Republicans have been gambling that COVID-19 is less of a danger than is an economic downturn. Iowa has become a control in a great experiment to determine whether keeping stores open is more important than is preventing the spread of the most dangerous respiratory infection since the Spanish influenza of a century ago.  

Sometimes gambles pay off politically. Sometimes they are disasters.

Ohio -- reinstating a 49-49 tie in approval from a month ago.

Trump approval 50-54%
Trump approval positive but under 50%
ties are in white
Trump approval negative but disapproval under 50%
Trump disapproval 50-54%
Trump disapproval 55% or higher

[pbrower2a]

MSN polls were right except in LA and MS, there is a leftward trend of the nation

I'm not so sure of any leftward trend in American politics other than the demographic change in which younger voters (under 40) supplant older voters (over 55) as voters about 20% more D than R supplant voters about 5% (it is the same among the Silent, Boom, and first-wave of Generation X) if approval for Trump is no lower than 43%. That demographic shift is enough to swing Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and perhaps Florida. That would still imply a very close election.

Attention has so far been largely on a few states  in state polls. We see few polls so far (aside from 50-state polls with odd methodology that preclude comparison with state polls dedicated to one state), and the polling suggests about a 7% shift in those states that were within 10% of being decided differently.

But even if the polls look OK for Trump winning Kansas and Louisiana he seems to be winning those by much smaller-than-normal margins. The Civiqs and MSN polls seem to be showing a large shift away from Trump in all parts of America. Even shifts across the spectrum of states seem intuitively unlikely because there are some states at max-out levels.     

[woodley park]

Senate: Ernst 43, Greenfield 42

This is the most competitive I've seen this senate election. I thought Ernst was winning easily...

Why this forum seems to think IA Senate is Safe R is beyond my understanding.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Senate: Ernst 43, Greenfield 42

This is the most competitive I've seen this senate election. I thought Ernst was winning easily...

Why this forum seems to think IA Senate is Safe R is beyond my understanding.

Badger, 538, SN2903, and 2016 blue avatars are trained that 2016 will forever be the EC map and PA is the new R  version of VA. Dems will never get to 270 ever again

[pbrower2a]

Senate: Ernst 43, Greenfield 42

This is the most competitive I've seen this senate election. I thought Ernst was winning easily...

Why this forum seems to think IA Senate is Safe R is beyond my understanding.

People ignore that

(1) Joni Ernst got elected on a gimmick that will not work a second time, so she will need something else and has yet to find it
(2) she can't escape the ties to an unpopular President
(3) she got elected the first time in a wave election for Republicans and that in 2020 she will have to win in a political environment less sympathetic to her ideology
(4) she has few achievements as a Senator
(5) Iowa has not been a Hard R for a long time, and 2014 and 2016 may be anomalies in a state that has gone Democratic in six of the last eight Presidential elections. 

[wbrocks67]

MN-Survey USA

Trump approval on the Coronavirus: 34/59 (-25)

Yikes

https://amp.kstp.com/articles/kstpsurveyusa-big-difference-in-walz-trump-approval-ratings-on-virus-response-may-4-2020-5720016.html?__twitter_impression=true&fbclid=IwAR1taxRif_iWufbP9UxlXYKTlqEqr1P_EYAX6EFvrUBsOZegjBV98Jcs5Zs

[wbrocks67]

WaPo - Trump handling of the virus still low

Adults: 44/56 (-12)
RV: 45/55 (-10)

Males: 45/55 (-10)
Females: 42/58 (-16)

Independents: 41/59 (-18)
White: 50/50 (=)
Blacks: 23/77 (-54)
Hispanics: 39/61 (-22)

18-39: 40/60 (-20)
40-64: 46/53 (-7)
65+: 45/55 (-10)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/americans-widely-oppose-reopening-most-businesses-despite-easing-of-restrictions-in-some-states-post-u-md-poll-finds/2020/05/04/495ddc3a-8e36-11ea-9e23-6914ee410a5f_story.html

[Gass3268]

Trump's approval and opinion to his COVID-19 response are starting to converge:

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1257717833460523010?s=20

[pbrower2a]

MN-Survey USA

Trump approval on the Coronavirus: 34/59 (-25)

Yikes

https://amp.kstp.com/articles/kstpsurveyusa-big-difference-in-walz-trump-approval-ratings-on-virus-response-may-4-2020-5720016.html?__twitter_impression=true&fbclid=IwAR1taxRif_iWufbP9UxlXYKTlqEqr1P_EYAX6EFvrUBsOZegjBV98Jcs5Zs

Because COVID-19 is the focus of American political life these days it can be assumed as the likely deciding factor in the 2020 Presidential race (barring a nuclear war or something that severe). It will color even the response to so likely a natural disaster as a hurricane. People will judge any economic disaster as the consequence of the President's handling of COVID-19. Some states are unwisely opening up for business and they will get racked. Figure that Democrats will generally be more adept at ensuring that when such businesses as hair salons and barber shops reopen that they will open safely (as with helmets for barbers and stylists to protect them from the disease.

I expect many food prices to soar... so Trump will take the hit for inflation. But what is more important -- low prices or a reliable and safe supply? When tested, the free market favors the latter.

President Trump has been lucky so far. Remember: luck is not a tangible aspect of anyone. Some people can harvest it for a windfall that they use wisely. Others who speak about luck are simply bad gamblers.     

[Frodo]

WaPo - Trump handling of the virus still low

Adults: 44/56 (-12)
RV: 45/55 (-10)

Males: 45/55 (-10)
Females: 42/58 (-16)

Independents: 41/59 (-18)
White: 50/50 (=)
Blacks: 23/77 (-54)
Hispanics: 39/61 (-22)

18-39: 40/60 (-20)
40-64: 46/53 (-7)
65+: 45/55 (-10)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/americans-widely-oppose-reopening-most-businesses-despite-easing-of-restrictions-in-some-states-post-u-md-poll-finds/2020/05/04/495ddc3a-8e36-11ea-9e23-6914ee410a5f_story.html

'Still'?  Are you expecting his approval ratings to rise for some reason?

[Progressive Pessimist]

Trump's approval and opinion to his COVID-19 response are starting to converge:

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1257717833460523010?s=20

Those still seem pretty high to me, but Monmouth does always tend to be one of Trump's better pollsters. So by that standard, this is pretty terrible for him.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Well change gave a 278 map again, Biden +3, Biden isnt up 12 or 14 points, he is up by 2-4 points replicating the 278 EC battleground.  The election is gonna keep playing itself out and replicate the 278 EC battleground,  Trump is at 47 percent approvals.  We should ignore 10 polls

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac: Connecticut, New Jersey, and New York.


Three states, between them 52 electoral votes, that were definitely not going to vote for Trump:

2. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     CT     NJ     NY
 
Biden                56%    54%    55%
Trump                33     35     32
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      2      3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      1      2
DK/NA                 7      8      8
 
 
3. Is your opinion of Joe Biden favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     CT     NJ     NY
 
Favorable            49%    47%    48%
Unfavorable          37     38     36
Hvn't hrd enough     12     11     12
REFUSED               1      4      3
 
 
4. Is your opinion of Donald Trump favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     CT     NJ     NY
 
Favorable            34%    35%    34%
Unfavorable          61     59     59
Hvn't hrd enough      3      2      3
REFUSED               2      4      3
 
 
5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way - (CT) Ned Lamont / (NJ) Phil Murphy / (NY) Andrew Cuomo - is handling his job as governor?
                     CT          NJ          NY
                     Lamont      Murphy      Cuomo
 
Approve              65%         68%         72%
Disapprove           26          23          24
DK/NA                 8          10           4
 
 
6-7. Do you approve or disapprove of the way - (CT) Chris Murphy, Richard Blumenthal / (NJ) Cory Booker, Robert Menendez / (NY) Chuck Schumer, Kirsten Gillibrand - is handling [his/her] job as United States Senator?
                     CT....................  NJ..................    NY....................
                     Murphy      Blumenthal  Booker      Menendez    Schumer     Gillibrand
 
Approve              55%         55%         50%         40%         51%         43%
Disapprove           32          36          34          36          36          30
DK/NA                13           9          16          24          13          27
 
 
8. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?
                     CT     NJ     NY
 
Approve              36%    36%    36%
Disapprove           61     59     60
DK/NA                 3      5      4

https://poll.qu.edu/connecticut/release-detail?ReleaseID=3660

Note that "favorability" and approval are much the same.

Colorado - Trump Coronavirus Approval Rating

34% Approve
55% Disapprove


Source


For reference, Jared Polis and his Coronavirus approvals...

64% Approve
23% Disapprove

It is safe to assume that handling the Plague of 2020 overpowers all else in American politics for now -- including even foreign policy, the economy, and any perceptions of corruption. The economy is rotten because of the plague, with high unemployment, great shortages, and no more low prices. Colorado is about as out of reach for the President as is New Mexico.  

Trump approval 50-54%
Trump approval positive but under 50%
ties are in white
Trump approval negative but disapproval under 50%
Trump disapproval 50-54%
Trump disapproval 55% or higher

[pbrower2a]

Does anyone notice that I do not have a category for Trump approval at 55% or higher? I recall Hendrix College occasionally posting a poll of Arkansas... and I haven't seen one of those in a long time.

I don't have a category for disapproval over 60% because such adds a meaningless distinction. Anything at 55% or higher disapproval implies a double-digit loss.   

[Panda Express]

pbrower, Elon Musk and Grimes named their child "X Æ A-12". What is your opinion of this?

[pbrower2a]

pbrower, Elon Musk and Grimes named their child "X Æ A-12". What is your opinion of this?

It's OK for a stereo speaker, but not for a child.

Horrible, of course. Children's names are not jokes. Just think of Johnny Cash's "A Boy Named Sue".   

[American2020]

Reagan Test

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1258185902440034311

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, May 3-5, 1500 adults including 1209 RV

Adults:

Approve 47 (+3)
Disapprove 47 (-3)

Strongly approve 25 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 35 (-3)


RV:

Approve 46 (+2)
Disapprove 51 (-2)

Strongly approve 28 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 40 (-2)

2020 (RV only): Biden 46 (-1), Trump 42 (+1)

GCB (RV only): D 47 (+1), R 39 (+1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), May 4-5, 1215 adults including 1015 RV

Adults:

Approve 42 (nc)
Disapprove 53 (nc)

Strongly approve 23 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 38 (-2)

COVID-19 handling: 43(+1)/50(-3)

Biden 39(-3), Trump 38(+2)


RV:

Approve 45 (+2)
Disapprove 53 (+1)

Strongly approve 26 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 40 (-2)

Biden 43(-2), Trump 41(+2)

[Person Man]

I guess he's growing on people, huh?

[BudgieForce]

I guess he's growing on people, huh?

More likely, weekly trackers like YouGov and Ipsos are noisy.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I guess he's growing on people, huh?

More likely, weekly trackers like YouGov and Ipsos are noisy.

Gold star.  Usually when you see big fluctuations from week to week in these trackers, it's worth looking at the underlying samples.  In the YouGov polls, this week's party ID breakdown was D 35%, R 28%, I 37%, while last week's was 36/25/39.  This week's sample is less D and more R than last week, so it's not really surprising that this week is better for Trump.

Having said that, I wouldn't assume that all the movement is due to sample difference.  There does appear to be some improvement in Trump's approval across multiple polls.  So the combination of that increase plus the sample composition yields a big change in the YouGov poll.