2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Alben Barkley]

Florida is crying in the corner about not joining the party

They had their turn for WAY too long. At this point I’d almost rather Florida just be a Safe R state than ever have to worry about it again.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I want the wikipedia page to acknowledge it

[South Dakota Democrat]

Again, congrats to Fox and the AP on this.

Just because Biden won in the end doesn't mean the call wasn't premature.

[MasterJedi]

51 of 72 Wisconsin counties have completed their canvasses. Biden gained 10 votes and Trump lost 271.

[BudgieForce]

51 of 72 Wisconsin counties have completed their canvasses. Biden gained 10 votes and Trump lost 271.

Dumb question, but how does someone lose 271 votes in a canvas?

[Alben Barkley]

Apparently it was like 90% turnout from the Navajo in Arizona.

WOW.

Biden could not have won the state without that.

Native Americans and McCain both getting revenge.

[DrScholl]

51 of 72 Wisconsin counties have completed their canvasses. Biden gained 10 votes and Trump lost 271.

Dumb question, but how does someone lose 271 votes in a canvas?

Tallying error.

[DINGO Joe]

51 of 72 Wisconsin counties have completed their canvasses. Biden gained 10 votes and Trump lost 271.

Dumb question, but how does someone lose 271 votes in a canvas?

Human error

[forsythvoter]

51 of 72 Wisconsin counties have completed their canvasses. Biden gained 10 votes and Trump lost 271.

Dumb question, but how does someone lose 271 votes in a canvas?

It's usually not real votes being lost as much as it's transcription errors. You might get a situation where a clerk or poll worker will read a machine result of 631 as 361 for example. This usually gets caught during the transcription process, but if not, it gets caught during canvassing when everything has to be double checked.

[Non Swing Voter]

these turnout numbers are incredible. 

Not sure if Trump was the worst thing to happen to American democracy or the best thing.  He unquestionably got more people interested in politics.

[forsythvoter]

Did they say when Pima will report its final votes?

[GeneralMacArthur]

these turnout numbers are incredible. 

Not sure if Trump was the worst thing to happen to American democracy or the best thing.  He unquestionably got more people interested in politics.

Trump also was basically taking a firehose to our entire system, revealing any weak points or cracks or holes and just blasting them away with water.

It's now extremely clear that ew can't rely on "norms" or "decency" or "integrity" to hold government officials accountable and expect them to maintain our founding principles.  The Trump administration has revealed countless constitutional loopholes or bureaucrats with way too much unchecked power.  Those all need to be fixed.

[Hammy]

Again, congrats to Fox and the AP on this.

Just because Biden won in the end doesn't mean the call wasn't premature.

No, it means they had solid data and understood what it meant--somebody mentioned several pages ago they made the call based on precinct-level data they had as far as where the outstanding votes were.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Again, congrats to Fox and the AP on this.

Just because Biden won in the end doesn't mean the call wasn't premature.

No, it means they had solid data and understood what it meant--somebody mentioned several pages ago they made the call based on precinct-level data they had as far as where the outstanding votes were.

Yeah, no, that's just utter B.S.  Them calling it definitely indicated they thought it would be a larger margin than will end up being the case. You simply don't call a race when you think it'll be in the 10-20k vote range.  No, you're wrong.

[Non Swing Voter]

At any rate, it's time to call Arizona.  There's like 24k votes outstanding I believe.  There is no path forward for Trump there.  Putting more public nails in Trump's electoral coffin would be good for peaceful transition purposes...

[emailking]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1326711675165270017

[GP270watch]

 Fox/AP Arizona call was way too early. But an early call doesn't change anything at the end of the day since if they're wrong, they're wrong.

[emailking]

Again, congrats to Fox and the AP on this.

Just because Biden won in the end doesn't mean the call wasn't premature.

Just because it was close doesn't mean it was premature

Yeah, no, that's just utter B.S.  Them calling it definitely indicated they thought it would be a larger margin than will end up being the case. You simply don't call a race when you think it'll be in the 10-20k vote range.  No, you're wrong.

They call it when they're 99.5% sure of the result, not when they're 99.5% sure it won't be close, more than 10-20k vote difference, or anything else. Yes they probably thought it wouldn't be close because the confidence interval probably spread several percent. But the moment they call it, a razor thin margin might still possible.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Again, congrats to Fox and the AP on this.

Just because Biden won in the end doesn't mean the call wasn't premature.

Just because it was close doesn't mean it was premature

Yeah, no, that's just utter B.S.  Them calling it definitely indicated they thought it would be a larger margin than will end up being the case. You simply don't call a race when you think it'll be in the 10-20k vote range.  No, you're wrong.

They call it when they're 99.5% sure of the result, not when they're 99.5% sure it won't be close, more than 10-20k vote difference, or anything else. Yes they probably thought it wouldn't be close because the confidence interval probably spread several percent. But the moment they call it, a razor thin margin might still possible.

Nah.  There was always a chance Trump would win when they made the call.  Just turned out the remaining batches weren't that friendly to him. 

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1326711675165270017

he's really phoning it in at this point.  not even putting decent effort into his trolling.  he must be really depressed. 

[emailking]

You don't know that though. They apparently determined the batches couldn't be friendly enough for that to happen, or at least the chance was statistically insignificant based on the data they had.

[Alben Barkley]

COVID-19 is currently replicating FDR's 1936 map:

https://twitter.com/Craig_A_Spencer/status/1326747837422592001?s=20

[Alben Barkley]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1326711675165270017

he's really phoning it in at this point.  not even putting decent effort into his trolling.  he must be really depressed. 

Did you see him earlier? At a graveyard for veterans, in the rain? (The irony!) Looked about as miserable as I've ever seen a human. Well, "human" in the loosest sense in his case.

[Alben Barkley]

Again, congrats to Fox and the AP on this.

Just because Biden won in the end doesn't mean the call wasn't premature.

Just because it was close doesn't mean it was premature

Yeah, no, that's just utter B.S.  Them calling it definitely indicated they thought it would be a larger margin than will end up being the case. You simply don't call a race when you think it'll be in the 10-20k vote range.  No, you're wrong.

They call it when they're 99.5% sure of the result, not when they're 99.5% sure it won't be close, more than 10-20k vote difference, or anything else. Yes they probably thought it wouldn't be close because the confidence interval probably spread several percent. But the moment they call it, a razor thin margin might still possible.

Nah.  There was always a chance Trump would win when they made the call.  Just turned out the remaining batches weren't that friendly to him. 

I just see it as very similar to when the networks instacalled Georgia for Clinton in 1992. Turned out very close, arguably shouldn't have been called that early, but didn't really matter because he won it anyway.

[2952-0-0]

COVID-19 is currently replicating FDR's 1936 map:

https://twitter.com/Craig_A_Spencer/status/1326747837422592001?s=20

Trump kept his promise for a red wave after all.