Special Election megathread (5/21: CA-20)

[Sestak]

Dutchess was a 50-50 result.

https://twitter.com/NapervillePol/status/1562272464704573440?s=20&t=KUtiBCr6...

Is that account just directly extrapolating from 2020 results or has he put in some sort of house adjustment? Because it should be noted Dutchess is Molinaro's home county (in which he is an incumbent officeholder) and so would be likelier to beat raw benchmarks there.

[Gass3268]

Could be relevant if this is indeed close.

https://twitter.com/BruneElections/status/1562273544964276224?s=20&t=KUtiBCr...

[Gass3268]

Dutchess was a 50-50 result.

https://twitter.com/NapervillePol/status/1562272464704573440?s=20&t=KUtiBCr6...

Is that account just directly extrapolating from 2020 results or has he put in some sort of house adjustment? Because it should be noted Dutchess is Molinaro's home county (in which he is an incumbent officeholder) and so would be likelier to beat raw benchmarks there.

There are adjustments, in a pure swing I think Ducthess would have to lean Dem.

[wbrocks67]

Duchess appears to be done. Molinaro +3.4, 51.7-48.3.

25K turnout there, which would be about 42% turnout. We'll see if Ulster can top it.

[GeorgiaModerate]

538 blog is estimating 120K votes in this race.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Calling NY-23 for Sempolinski!

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

RYAN: 59,040 (52.40%)
MOLINARO: 53,626 (47.60%)

SEMPOLINSKI: 33,151 (51.53%)
DELLA PIA: 31,177 (48.47%)

[LimoLiberal]

Delaware County is "0% of precincts reporting" but is at 33% of 2020 turnout, so it might actually be done?

[ProgressiveModerate]

This seems to be a battle of swings vs turnout. Generally speaking, Molinaro seems to be slightly outpacing Trump's margin, especially in redder areas, however, the blue parts of the district are seeing the best turnout and Ryan isn't really losing ground in the bluest areas.

[wbrocks67]

I would imagine Columbia has a bit more to report, they're only at 10K votes now, and they had 34.5K in 2020 in that area. Would only be 29% turnout which would be surprising.

Columbia up to 12.5K, which would be 36% turnout now, seems more likely.

Would imagine that Columbia is now close to done.

[Tintrlvr]

Most of the remaining votes are in Otsego and Rensselaer Counties. I think people are overfocused on the places that have already mostly reported. Both counties should flip to Molinaro in the final result, but not by huge margins, and I don't think he can make up 5,400 votes from them alone, though there are of course other votes scattered around elsewhere as well. We'll see.

[wbrocks67]

Delaware County is "0% of precincts reporting" but is at 33% of 2020 turnout, so it might actually be done?

I would imagine. The red areas seem to be getting 29-33% turnout so I'd imagine it's done or close to it

[Person Man]

RYAN: 59,040 (52.40%)
MOLINARO: 53,626 (47.60%)

SEMPOLINSKI: 33,151 (51.53%)
DELLA PIA: 31,177 (48.47%)

He has to make up 5000 votes out of 8000? Is that a fair assessment?

[wbrocks67]

This seems to be a battle of swings vs turnout. Generally speaking, Molinaro seems to be slightly outpacing Trump's margin, especially in redder areas, however, the blue parts of the district are seeing the best turnout and Ryan isn't really losing ground in the bluest areas.

Yep, the only red area that appears to be turning out is Duchess, but not surprising since that's Molinaro's homebase.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The R wave is no more

He who laughs have the last laugh

[wbrocks67]

538 blog is estimating 120K votes in this race.

We're almost done then, we're at 113k in NYT now

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

RYAN: 61,735 (51.74%)
MOLINARO: 57,581 (48.26%)

SEMPOLINSKI: 33,212 (51.55%)
DELLA PIA: 31,219 (48.45%)

[prag_prog]

DDHQ has Ryan +4,200 votes with almost 120K votes in.

[wbrocks67]

Oh wait now we’re at 119.3K on DDHQ and Ryan is still up by 4.2K votes, 51.7 - 48.3%.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden is not at 41 percent he is at 48 percent Approval

[GALeftist]

538 blog is estimating 120K votes in this race.

We're almost done then, we're at 113k in NYT now

119k now. Ryan leads by 3.4 points. Democrats are super duper stupid for allowing Molinaro to get a cash advantage in this race.

[GeorgiaModerate]

538 blog is estimating 120K votes in this race.

We're almost done then, we're at 113k in NYT now

Don’t put too much faith in it. Now they’re saying they don’t know how many are left.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1562270598604226560

Ulster County I am in awe

Edit: Apparently these are for the November election, but I am in awe nonetheless

[Tintrlvr]

Oh wait now we’re at 119.3K on DDHQ and Ryan is still up by 4.2K votes, 51.7 - 48.3%.

That was Rensselaer County reporting most of its vote. Otsego is the main one outstanding now. Then there should be only a few stragglers here and there, favoring Molinaro but there are just not that many votes once Otsego reports most of its votes. I think Ryan finishes the night up around 2k votes, which should get padded slightly by late absentees and affidavit ballots.

[wbrocks67]

Suddenly Renssalaer is nearly done, Molinaro +10.

This was actually R+8.5 in 2018, Delgado won it by 0.4 in 2020.

8.7K votes compared to 35k in 2020 though. ~25% turnout so likely a few more votes there.