Special Election megathread (4/30: NY-26)

[Sestak]

New longest surname in Congress, excellent.

[Sestak]

Very early obviously but all three counties so far have fallen in between Trump and Hagedorn's numbers.

[Sestak]

So is there a decent chance of sub 5 point margin here?

[Sestak]

Blue Earth at 90% in, Ettinger +12. Was Feehan +10. Dem net 1200.

[Sestak]

Houston in - weaker than would be expected given what Martin did. Sestak and I are thinking a 3700-vote margin for Finstad after Brown reports.

A bit bigger in the end; Brown slightly overperformed in turnout and Finstad overperformed Trump as well - unless some of the last group of votes added were from elsewhere. Looks like 4 points flat margin in the end.

[Sestak]

https://twitter.com/TKensingtonian/status/1562270607210848256

fake

[Sestak]

Dutchess was a 50-50 result.

https://twitter.com/NapervillePol/status/1562272464704573440?s=20&t=KUtiBCr6...

Is that account just directly extrapolating from 2020 results or has he put in some sort of house adjustment? Because it should be noted Dutchess is Molinaro's home county (in which he is an incumbent officeholder) and so would be likelier to beat raw benchmarks there.

[Sestak]

If that's final from Otsego, it's over. D hold.

[Sestak]

One aspect of these specials that hasn't been discussed at all: New York finally (mostly) got it together when it comes to counting votes!!!!

On the other hand, they were an absolute disaster when it came to conveying how much of their vote had already been counted and what was still left; still a very poor showing for them in my book.

[Sestak]

Any idea when we can expect results from the primary?

There are apparently only five people counting, so it may be some hours.

[Sestak]

Wow, this is the first time a McLennan has won battles in Virginia. (the early 1860s doesn't count).

On the other hand, a McClellan fleeing Richmond for DC is a fairly routine sight.

[Sestak]

McClellan was sworn in today, putting the House at full contingent.

[Sestak]

Sevier splits 54-23-23. That’s not bad for Edwards.

[Sestak]

Iron isn’t quite as nice looking for Edwards, 52-20 with Hough taking 28.

[Sestak]

Which Utah Republican is the least insane?

Edwards would make Brian Fitzpatrick look like Matt Gaetz.

To the point that we are speculating if she flips allergenics. In the scenario she wins here, and then the State Supreme Court orders a congressional remap that will make her potential seat noticeably urban and Biden-won.

From dust mites to tree nuts?

[Sestak]

Washington County

CELESTE MALOY   8022   (44.78%)
BECKY EDWARDS   3997   (22.31%)
BRUCE R HOUGH   5894   (32.9%)

https://www.washco.utah.gov/forms/clerk-auditor/elections/2023/09/index.php

Is that everything there?

[Sestak]

Washington County

CELESTE MALOY   8022   (44.78%)
BECKY EDWARDS   3997   (22.31%)
BRUCE R HOUGH   5894   (32.9%)

https://www.washco.utah.gov/forms/clerk-auditor/elections/2023/09/index.php

Is that everything there?

Do we know if they have more to report after this?

[Sestak]

If the 70% reporting number is accurate I’d give a slight edge to Maloy.