Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The pontoon bridge that was destroyed was to the north of Bilohorivka. Where the Russians had success crossing the Siversky Donets was to the east of Lyman/Yampil. Confirmed by Livemap and literally the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

I really wish you guys would stop the conclusions.. I talk about what's going on in Kharkiv & genocide going on in the occupied territories, civilians, unlawful annexations, etc.. and I cite my sources now when it's beyond reasonable doubt (geolocation and other 3rd parties) or it's either confirmed by both sides (UA General Staff and RU)

So how on earth is that not good enough?

Some people see

"Russia has successfully captured X & eliminated unit Y"

and internally translate that to:

"Yes DADDY Putin take care of those Banderovite Nazis, glory to Mother Russia!!!!"

Some people just can't handle objective info with a cool head.

They support Ukraine, therefore they only want to see positive news. If they come across something other than Russian tanks launching their turrets to the ISS, then it must be because it's Russian propaganda or you're a Russian shill.

All in all, no need to justify yourself for sharing OSINT info & statements from either side.

This.
Keep doing what you're doing.

[Hindsight was 2020]

SW used to only post pro-Russia stuff (though eased up once called out on it) so I can see why some still view his posting as sus. But still I think some of the “Atlas just can’t handle objective facts” crowd seem to be ignoring the fact that all the “pro” Russian developments that Woodbury posts are pretty pathetic in comparison to Ukraine updates

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

It’s not as if Woodbury is posting completely incredible Russian claims. Go on a platform like vk and have a read if you think what he’s doing is shilling, and your mind will be blown. Recent claims include a failed Ukrainian assault on Snake Island featuring multiple downed aircraft and secret British and American officers who perished in a land battle, along with unidentified mercenaries.

[CumbrianLefty]

Sure, and as already said their posting has definitely improved from when they started on this thread.

But still, context is all. Russia *is* making fairly limited gains in a few areas, but at a terrific cost even before the issue of the sustainability of said gains is considered.

[lfromnj]

By the way unlike Kharkov, Kyiv, and Luhansk/Donelson why was the southern front not an absolute disaster for Russians ?

[Virginiá]

So they are kidnapping Ukrainians and sending them all over Russia while moving Russians into stolen Ukrainian property to Russify the areas? What true liberators!

At any rate, seems a bit premature given the general state of the war, even if most of their losses and attrition were/are in the north and east.

[Hindsight was 2020]

By the way unlike Kharkov, Kyiv, and Luhansk/Donelson why was the southern front not an absolute disaster for Russians ?

From what I can tell the issue South is that it’s the only place Russia still hold a major city (Kherson) and Ukraine doesn’t want to level the city so they are trying to bait Russia out to fight them in the open so it’s more slow and probing

[Sol]

By the way unlike Kharkov, Kyiv, and Luhansk/Donelson why was the southern front not an absolute disaster for Russians ?

From what I can tell the issue South is that it’s the only place Russia still hold a major city (Kherson) and Ukraine doesn’t want to level the city so they are trying to bait Russia out to fight them in the open so it’s more slow and probing

Plus I think the Ukrainians were also a bit more prepared for a Russian offensive in the Donbass and around Kyiv so there was some degree of triage/being caught unprepared early in the war which wasn't the case elsewhere.

[rc18]

By the way unlike Kharkov, Kyiv, and Luhansk/Donelson why was the southern front not an absolute disaster for Russians ?

What makes you think it hasn't been? The only reason the Russians got to Kherson appears to have been deficiencies in the Ukrainian defence in the south (rumoured due to a traitor in the SBU). It really shouldn't have fallen so quickly, if at all.

Beyond that they have repeatedly tried to reach Mykolaiv, Odesa and Kryvyi Rih and failed. They were prevented from reaching Odesa by a bunch of TDF and have been beaten back by the army into Kherson Oblast.

The problem for the Ukrainians retaking territory is that this region is entirely flat barren steppe with almost no cover. That means artillery is king, of which the Russians have far more of. The flat barren land also makes it difficult to hold territory, so the front lines are constantly changing. The Ukrainians have to wear down the Russians with more accurate fire and wait for more artillery.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1524782915359494147?s=20&t=RCuKQlkLUtc4...

[NOVA Green]

Reports starting to emerge of yet another Russian ship allegedly sunk around Snake Island.

https://twitter.com/TheShipYard2/status/1524778540025012224?s=20&t=KYhlJn9el...

https://twitter.com/OSINT88/status/1524734267854659584?s=20&t=KYhlJn9elnqAL0...

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Reports starting to emerge of yet another Russian ship allegedly sunk around Snake Island.

https://twitter.com/TheShipYard2/status/1524778540025012224?s=20&t=KYhlJn9el...
https://twitter.com/OSINT88/status/1524734267854659584?s=20&t=KYhlJn9elnqAL0...

From what I’ve read on this, it’s unconfirmed speculation based on the following:
- The Ukrainian General Staff said they hit another vessel yesterday, but didn’t specify where
- A ship of the same type as the Ataman Platov (probably the very same ship) was spotted near Snake Island recently
- ”Unconfirmed reports” about the sinking of the Ataman Platov emerged on social media, with an alternative story about a fire breaking out on board an auxiliary vessel

There is visual evidence of Ukraine destroying a small towing boat in the failed Russian crossing attempt yesterday. It is possible the General Staff were referring to this and just being a bit obtuse, presumably not too worried about the story being spun out of proportion. However, a hit on the Ataman Platov is perfectly plausible - if it was actually sunk near Snake Island rather than just totalled, it might be visible on satellite imagery soon.

IMO there is much more fog of war w.r.t. what’s happening on the Black Sea (compared to on the ground), but maybe that’s just true for OSINT.

[JimJamUK]

Ukraine has seem continued success in its Kharkiv counter offensive. There are unsupported rumors that Ukraine has retaken Ternova while it is definitely confirmed that they are nearing it. If/when they take it the Izium supply lines are f**ked. In general it’s now the waiting game for the Ukraine counterattacks to officially cut into the Izium lines and force either a Kyiv style collapse or a mass surrender by the Russian troops there

But are they? They'd still need to take/approach Vovchansk on the other side of the river to cut off the main road from Belgorod, and there's still main roads to the east that lead to Izyum. Don't get me wrong, it would certainly help Ukraine to cut off that specific supply route and the alternatives are longer, but it doesn't seem like a devastating blow unless Ukraine are able to significantly reverse the tide around Lyman and properly start isolating Russian troops in the Izyum front.

[rc18]

Who doesn't want a Tesco delivery van that can launch supersonic hunter-killer missiles?

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1524806890143854592?s=20&t=e7piqS6...

This appears to be from a test fire/training exercise, but we already know it is in use.

[Badger]

The pontoon bridge that was destroyed was to the north of Bilohorivka. Where the Russians had success crossing the Siversky Donets was to the east of Lyman/Yampil. Confirmed by Livemap and literally the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

I really wish you guys would stop the conclusions.. I talk about what's going on in Kharkiv & genocide going on in the occupied territories, civilians, unlawful annexations, etc.. and I cite my sources now when it's beyond reasonable doubt (geolocation and other 3rd parties) or it's either confirmed by both sides (UA General Staff and RU)

So how on earth is that not good enough?

Some people see

"Russia has successfully captured X & eliminated unit Y"

and internally translate that to:

"Yes DADDY Putin take care of those Banderovite Nazis, glory to Mother Russia!!!!"

Some people just can't handle objective info with a cool head.

They support Ukraine, therefore they only want to see positive news. If they come across something other than Russian tanks launching their turrets to the ISS, then it must be because it's Russian propaganda or you're a Russian shill.

All in all, no need to justify yourself for sharing OSINT info & statements from either side.

This.
Keep doing what you're doing.

Despite the general reliability of the sources he posts, it is undeniably kind of creepy that he posts almost without exception reports about Russian successes, which offer a rather distorted picture of how the war is actually going compared to other at least equally reliable reports of significantly more significant Ukrainian gains.

Add to the fact that Woodbury has the most well-deserved reputation of any post on Atlas as a liar and a troll, it's hardly unreasonable to be fully suspicious of his motives and whether he is cherry picking what he reports to give a less than complete picture.

[jaichind]

 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-12/italy-s-eni-set-to-make-gazprom-payment-due-by-the-end-of-may

"Italy’s Eni Set to Make Gazprom Payment Due by the End of May"

It seems Italy's Eni will do this pay in EUR but then Gazprom then converts it to RUB workaround to ensure Russian gas continues to flow.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

By the way unlike Kharkov, Kyiv, and Luhansk/Donelson why was the southern front not an absolute disaster for Russians ?

Russian offensives have largely collapsed because they couldn’t secure major logics points and ground themselves into the cities. In Kherson they managed to take it early and the city itself serves as something of a fortress protecting the major bridges at on the lower part of the Dnieper. Meanwhile they were already in control via proxies of Donetsk, giving them control of two major cities anchoring their position between the eastern bank of the river and the Russian border at either end. So the Ukrainians weren’t able to try to relieve Mariupol and hamper Russian movement very effectively.

They do seem to have failed to make any advance west of the river. So Odessa and such seems safe by the standards of places in Ukraine right now.

[The Mikado]

So they are kidnapping Ukrainians and sending them all over Russia while moving Russians into stolen Ukrainian property to Russify the areas? What true liberators!

At any rate, seems a bit premature given the general state of the war, even if most of their losses and attrition were/are in the north and east.

This is definitely premature, but it's also what the USSR did in territories it annexed in WWII (officers especially literally going "I like this house" and confiscating it in occupied areas facing annexation).

It's a sign of deep overconfidence. Will Kherson be in Russian hands a month from now? Probably. Will it be in Russian hands three months from now? Maybe. Will it be in Russian hands six months from now??? I don't think I'd be buying real estate on that premise.

[Storr]

The Russians tried crossing the river again, with predictable results:

https://twitter.com/realjrobinson86/status/1524784643702022149?s=20&t=0ESdda...

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Russia has almost certainly completed the capture of Rubizhne and Vojevodika, as Ukraine has blown up the bridge that leads from these towns to Ukrainian held territory west of the local river.

Russia has held most of Rubizhne since late March, IIRC - it’s not like the entire town was captured overnight, but it’s still a tactical gain for Russia.

[Storr]

Russia has almost certainly completed the capture of Rubizhne and Vojevodika, as Ukraine has blown up the bridge that leads from these towns to Ukrainian held territory west of the local river.

Russia has held most of Rubizhne since late March, IIRC - it’s not like the entire town was captured overnight, but it’s still a tactical gain for Russia.

Here are a few photos of the destroyed Brovoa River bridge that the Ukrainians blew up:
https://twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/status/1524807089637531650?s=20&t=oBlrWDnv...

Rubizne looks to be completely destroyed.  It was the 3rd largest city in Luhansk Oblast under Ukrainian control at the beginning of the Russian invasion, 8th largest overall. Prior to the invasion, the city's population was 56,000. I guess the most we can hope for is that as many residents as possible were evacuated...

https://twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/status/1524853419336421377?s=20&t=oBlrWDnv...

[Logical]

Same as Mariupol, Popasna and Volnovakha. Russia could only capture large urban areas in the Donbas by completely destroying it.

[Person Man]

Russia has almost certainly completed the capture of Rubizhne and Vojevodika, as Ukraine has blown up the bridge that leads from these towns to Ukrainian held territory west of the local river.

Russia has held most of Rubizhne since late March, IIRC - it’s not like the entire town was captured overnight, but it’s still a tactical gain for Russia.

Here are a few photos of the destroyed Brovoa River bridge that the Ukrainians blew up:
https://twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/status/1524807089637531650?s=20&t=oBlrWDnv...

Rubizne looks to be completely destroyed.  It was the 3rd largest city in Luhansk Oblast under Ukrainian control at the beginning of the Russian invasion, 8th largest overall. Prior to the invasion, the city's population was 56,000. I guess the most we can hope for is that as many residents as possible were evacuated...

https://twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/status/1524853419336421377?s=20&t=oBlrWDnv...

Russia is a crime.

[DINGO Joe]

The Russians tried crossing the river again, with predictable results:

https://twitter.com/realjrobinson86/status/1524784643702022149?s=20&t=0ESdda...

As they say, a picture is worth a thousand Woodbury tweets.

[Middle-aged Europe]

New German polling numbers (Infratest dimap for ARD-Deutschlandtrend, 05/13)


The general picture painted by previous polls is confirmed further... people are afraid of war, but not willing to appease Russia (except AfD voters).


Are you worried that Germany is being pulled into the war?
Yes 63%
No 33%

"Yes"/"No" responses broken down by party affiliation
AfD 77/21
SPD 64/33
CDU/CSU 56/41
FDP 50/43
Greens 46/51


The government should exercise restraint so that Germany is not threatened by an attack
Yes 38%
No 55%

"Yes"/"No" responses broken down by party affilation
AfD 77/20
SPD 38/59
FDP 34/61
CDU/CSU 31/64
Greens 17/78


Voting intention
CDU/CSU 26% (+/-0)
SPD 22% (-2)
Greens 20% (+2)
AfD 11% (+/-0)
FDP 8% (-1)
Left 4% (+1)