2024 ROC Prez and Legislative elections Jan 13th

[jaichind]

In many ways the deal Ko signed, assuming it ends up being Hou-Ko, is worse than what PFP Soong signed with the KMT in 2004.

 In 2004 KMT-PFP signed a deal for a Lien-Soong ticket.  The deal was that if Lien-Soong won then PFP would merge into KMT with Soong as Chairperson which ensured that in 2008 Lien would retire for Snong to run as the KMT candidate.  They ended up losing to DPP Chen due to a last-minute shooting of DPP Chen so will never know if the two parties would have ever carried out such a deal.

the KMT-TPP deal allows for a KMT dominate cabinet with some spots for TPP but says nothing about 2028 which implies that Hou will run for re-election with Ko or someone else from TPP as VP assuming the alliance lasts into 2028.

I think part of the reason why Ko took this deal is to try to get some sympathy votes for the TPP PR slate from light blue and light green voters.  The KMT does not seem to mind since Ko's push for higher turnout for TPP PR would also push the same mobilized voters to the KMT district legislative candidates.

[greengod]

If Hou becomes the nominee, How much the possiblity that Ko declines to accept the result and is running for president anyway?

[jaichind]

If Hou becomes the nominee, How much the possiblity that Ko declines to accept the result and is running for president anyway?

I think that would destroy Ko's brand.  Note that Ko signed as TPP Chairperson on the deal.  Ko's youth appeal comes from his no-nonsense anti-politician attitude that focuses on principles and even if he comes off as impractical.  For him to renege on a document he signed would destroy his entire narrative.  Hou is much more likely to renege on the deal.  Hou will get hit badly too but it would not erase his entire political narrative.

[jaichind]

With Guo picking a half-American woman as his running mate that makes it likely the second half-American woman as VP candidate in this election as DPP Lai is likely to pick the Current ROC representative to the USA Former DPP MP of Hualian 蕭美琴(Hsiao Bi-khim).



Hsiao is really aligned with DPP Prez Tsai and is very close to the USA.   Her being on the ticket is sort of a way for both DPP Prez Tsai and the USA to have someone on the inside to "watch over" a likely DPP Lai administration.    DPP Lai knows this and in a DPP Lai administration will find ways to sideline Hsiao and pigeonhole her on dealing with with USA and nothing else.  This is sort of how DPP Prez Tsai treated DPP VP Lai.  She was forced to take him on as VP in 2020 as a way to unify the DPP ahead of the 2020 elections.

Various ROC media sources say that DPP Lai is going to announce Hsiao as his VP candidate.  This is not wise given the KMT-TPP alliance.  Hsiao can help Lai consolidate the core DPP 40% vote.  Now with the KMT-TPP alliance and even assuming pro-KMT Guo stays in the race DPP Lai has to think of a way to get above 45%.  He should be picking a VP candidate who can expand his base (like someone with a light Blue background or someone non-political who has mass appeal.)

Of course, I think he has no choice.  It seems both DPP Prez Tsai and the USA do not trust DPP Lai so Hsiao is handpicked by both to key an eye on DPP Lai if he wins.

[jaichind]

The internet DPP pan-Green crowd seems to have the one-sided view that they should support Hou-Ko over Ko-Hou on the premise that Hou would be easier to beat.  In a very limited sense, they might be right as far as 2024 is concerned but from a strategic point of view, they are wrong.   Hou-Ko is a much bigger threat to the DPP in the long run even if Hou-Ko loses.

The logic is based on the same reason that I rather KMT lose in 2024 than TPP gain ground as a party.  DPP should prefer a future where it is DPP 45 KMT 28 TPP 27 versus a future where it is DPP 47 KMT 45 TPP 8.  The former would have the DPP being the ruling party almost 70%-80% of the time while the latter would be 50/50 split between DPP and KMT.  If the KMT-TPP ticket is Ko-Hou or if they run separately and Ko comes in a strong second then a future of DPP 45 KMT 28 TPP 27 is very possible which is the best outcome for the DPP.

[jaichind]

TPP Ko, Former KMT Prez Ma, KMT Hou, and KMT Chairperson Chu holding up the signed copy of the KMT-TPP deal on joint Prez candidate selection process




It seems during talks earlier today the aides of all 4 were kicked out of the room and the 4 of them worked out this deal alone over 1.5 hours.  When they came out with this agreement some key TPP operatives objected to the deal but were told that it was what TPP Ko agreed to.

The fact that Ko folded in the end is a victory for former DPP MP and now commentator 沈富雄(Shen Fu-Hsiung).  He was a rising star in the DPP in the 1990s and was considered on the shortlist for the DPP to run for mayor of Taipei in the early 2000s. He broke with the DPP back in 2007 and his views over the years have drifted from Deep Green to light Green to Light Blue.   He is a regular on various political talk shows and this entire election cycle has said the entire time that Ko was a bluff and he would fold last minute.  No one else, including me, believed him.  It seems he was right the whole time.

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-16/taiwan-candidate-says-he-still-hates-the-party-he-ll-run-with

"Taiwan Candidate Says He Still Hates Party He’ll Run With"

Very smart messaging from Ko. He knows if he starts talking about how KMT is better than before he will seem inauthentic and blow up his brand with his youth supporters.  The way he is playing it is "Yes, KMT is bad, but for me to back KMT shows how much worse DPP has become"  He has to get the youth TPP vote to come out to vote Hou-Ko but more importantly TPP on the PR slate.  This messaging might not work but is the best he can do.

[jaichind]

The latest Ettoday poll on the critical question of Hou-Ko vs Lai relative to Ko-Hou vs Lai

The poll has Hou-Ko slightly better but all within margin of error so this poll will be a point for Hou-Ko.  Not a surprise as Ettoday this cycle has been fairly negative for TPP Ko.

Hou-Ko      39.93
Lai            34.53

Ko-Hou     39.30
Lai            34..80





Legislative vote has a slight KMT lead

Generic district legislative ballot
KMT             28.15
DPP             27.53
TPP               7.73

PR
KMT             29.95
DPP             29.14
TPP             12.95
TSP               1.80
NPP               0.45

If the KMT can get TPP voters to vote KMT in district races then it could get very bad for DPP in legislative district races.

[jaichind]

It's official.  NPP founder and former Chairperson 黃國昌(Huang Kuo-chang) officially leaves NPP to join TPP.  This is certainly part of his being on the TPP PR list.   He also de facto endorsed KMT Hou by praising Hou as a person with a great police record.

Huang and Ko were leaders of the 2013-2014 anti-KMT surge and in many ways running ahead of the DPP in attacking the KMT.  Now both are allies of the KMT

2015 poster of Ko and Huang fighting their anto-KMT fight for Taiwan's Independence and Taiwan's democracy.  This poster now seems very funny given their current alignment.


In many ways, their shift has to do with New Tide.  After DPP came to power in 2016 New Tide sought to eat up all anti-KMT forces which included people like Ko and Huang.  Over time they saw the New Tide faction of the DPP as greater enemies than the KMT.

if there DPP does lose in 2024 they can blame the fact that DPP New Tide faction just wants all power can could not figure out how to share.

[jaichind]

Lean Green MNEWS poll

No real difference between Hou-Ko and Ko-Hou when pitted against DPP Lai with or without pro-KMT Guo with a slight edge for Ko-Hou.  So market his poll as a win for Hou over Ko since it is well within the margin of error






Legislative generic district vote has KMT with a small edge.  Again if TPP vote mostly vote KMT in district races it will become bad for DPP


KMT PR edge increase over DPP

[jaichind]

Fairly historically youth-heavy Shih Hsin University poll.   I suspect this poll is fairly cell phone-heavy. Ko-Hou has a real edge. Count this one as a win for Ko.

Hou-Ko     40.82
Lai-Hsiao   35.86

Ko-Hou     46.01
Lai-Hsiao   32.22



Their 3-way poll is
DPP Lai         31.08
TPP Ko          28.73
KMT Hou       22.36

Their 4-way poll is
DPP Lai         27.94
TPP Ko          24.29
KMT Hou       21.23
pro-KMT Guo   6.17

PR vote
KMT             26.52
DPP             22.13
TPP              16.31

[jaichind]

Latest Formosa Times poll.  It does not count since it just has 3-way and 4-way and not Ko-Hou relative to Ko-Hou vs Lai.  With the focus on Hou and Ko "poll" primary DPP Lai support continues to fall




After this Saturday when most likely it will be locked down it will be Hou-Ko I suspect DPP Lai will poll in the low 40s.

[jaichind]

The KMT-TPP alliance candidate decision will be announced at 10 AM Sat 11/18.  There are less than 24 hours left before any poll that can be released to be considered.  I wonder if TVBS TPOF and Newtalk will come out with polls.  I suspect TVBS and Newtalk will lean Hou and TPOF will lean Ko if they do come out with something.

[jaichind]

It seems one of the reasons why TPP Ko folded is the lack of funds to run a campaign to win.  He was hoping to get pro-KMT Guo to join forces with him and fund the TPP campaign.  It seems pro-KMT Guo will only work with Ko if Guo is allowed to be the Prez candidate and Ko as the VP candidate.  I guess at that stage TPP Ko figured if he is going to be the VP candidate then it might as well be the KMT.

If this is true then pro-KMT Guo totally overplayed his hand.  I could have a 20% shot at being a kingmaker.  Now he has nothing and even if he runs and gets some disgruntled TPP voters he has no chance of winning and will get something like 3%-6% of the vote.  Very likely he will be talked into not even bother running.

[jaichind]

關鍵調查(Keypoint) poll

Hou-Ko      44.6
Lai            39.5

Ko-Hou      44.0
Lai             37.2

Slight relative edge for Ko-Hou but well within margin of error. One point for Hou



Generic legislative ballot
KMT         32.9
DPP          29.7
TPP          11.1
NPP           2.4
TSP           1.5



PR vote
DPP         31.8
KMT         31.4
TPP          14.3
NPP           2.6
TSP           2.4

[jaichind]

3 poll experts (1 recommended by KMT, 1 recommended by TPP, 1 recommend former KMT Prez Ma) gather at Prez Ma's office along with former KMT Prez Ma's COS to start the process to review all polls from 11/7-11/17 to make a call on if it will be Hou-Ko or Ko-Hou as per the rules specified by the KMT-TPP agreement.

[jaichind]

If Hou becomes the nominee, How much the possiblity that Ko declines to accept the result and is running for president anyway?

Something like this did end up taking place, sort of.

In the end, there were 6 polls.  If you use 1.5% as the margin of error it would be Hou 3 Ko 3.  If you use 3.0% as the margin of error it would be Hou 5 Ko 1.   Since the exact definition of margin of error was not in the contract how the "winner" is in dispute.  Ko says he is still committed to the KMT-TPP alliance but he wants to renegotiate the process.  The problem is registration starts 11/20 and ends 11/24 so KMT-TPP has very little time to work out another process. 

Overall it still seems Ko accepts being VP candidate Hou but has a hard time convincing the hawks in TPP to go with that.  He fears this will hit the TPP PR vote.  So he is trying to back peddle to come up with a process that is more acceptable to hawks in his party so they would accept a Hou-Ko ticket with an outside chance he can really win.

[jaichind]

It seems out of the 6 polls being considered several polls that skew against Ko were excluded due to methodological concerns including polls like Ettoday and Keypoint which if included would have produced an easy Hou win.  It seems in the poll selection and interpretation process TPP outmaneuvered KMT and now is able to use the difference of opinion of 1.5% vs 3.0% margin of error to force a rematch.

[jaichind]

A 2005 video clip where then DPP MP Lai questions Lead investigator Hou about his team's progress on the 319 attempted assassination of DPP Prez Chen on 3/19/2004 a day before elections.  In this clip, Lai and Hou (who was pro-Green at that time) kept on praising each other and giving each other softball questions and answers, much to the anger of KMT and PFP MPs.   It's so ironic now both will face each other in the 2024 elections.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w6wv86sdBBg&ab_channel=%E7%AB%8B%E6%B3%95%E9%99%A2%E6%BC%94%E5%93%AA%E9%BD%A3%3FPoliticalSaga

[jaichind]

KMT-TPP talks are ongoing to try to work out a deal in the final few days before registration. KMT came out with its 2020 Prez candidate Han to head its PR list.   

The purpose is
a) Sort of a gesture of goodwill to Ko since KMT could have had Han be the VP candidate which signals they are not giving up on a Hou-Ko ticket.
b) Push up the KMT PR vote as Han is a clear vote-getter with the pan-Blue base. Han underperformed in 2020 due to the HK protests plus anger that he is trying to run for Prez a year after becoming Kaoshiung mayor.  Neither factor is in play here.
c) Blows up pro-KMT Guo.  The Guo vote is for some Deep Blue voters plus some lean TPP voters.  This move takes away the lean Guo Deep Blue voters.

[peterthlee]

https://udn.com/vote2024/story/123307/7584568?from=udn_ch2_menu_v2_main_index
(UDN News)
TPP Ko said "I would stand till the last minute with the identity of TPP Prez Candidate"

So what did he wanna express? Break with KMT? Want Hou to be his VP?

[jaichind]

https://udn.com/vote2024/story/123307/7584568?from=udn_ch2_menu_v2_main_index
(UDN News)
TPP Ko said "I would stand till the last minute with the identity of TPP Prez Candidate"

So what did he wanna express? Break with KMT? Want Hou to be his VP?

Ko was a surgeon.  He said on many occasions that a surgeon does not make a decision until the last 30 seconds.  So in theory he can be with the identity of the TPP Prez candidate until the last minute but in the last 30 seconds, he will go over to be VP of KMT Hou.  Everything comes down to: is there a process KMT-TPP can come up with that he can convince the hawk TPP voters that it was "fair" so they come out to vote TPP on the PR slate AND give him some statistically meaningful chance of actually winning even if he accept that he will be the underdog.

[peterthlee]

https://udn.com/vote2024/story/123307/7584568?from=udn_ch2_menu_v2_main_index
(UDN News)
TPP Ko said "I would stand till the last minute with the identity of TPP Prez Candidate"

So what did he wanna express? Break with KMT? Want Hou to be his VP?

Ko was a surgeon.  He said on many occasions that a surgeon does not make a decision until the last 30 seconds.  So in theory he can be with the identity of the TPP Prez candidate until the last minute but in the last 30 seconds, he will go over to be VP of KMT Hou.  Everything comes down to: is there a process KMT-TPP can come up with that he can convince the hawk TPP voters that it was "fair" so they come out to vote TPP on the PR slate AND give him some statistically meaningful chance of actually winning even if he accept that he will be the underdog.

Yep, but now many of his supporters are betting that he would break up with KMT and register at the CEC on his own.

How to then pacify these hard-core supporters?

[jaichind]

Yep, but now many of his supporters are betting that he would break up with KMT and register at the CEC on his own.

How to then pacify these hard-core supporters?

That is his dilemma.   If Ko runs on his own I think he concluded unless he gets Guo to run as his VP then he does not have the money to run a viable campaign and the TPP PR vote will lose steam, especially with Han at the top of the KMT PR ticket.  But if goes with KMT then some of his votes will go to Guo (which he does not mind) but many will not turn out which will hurt his TPP PR vote.   Also part of the calculation is that if Hou-Ko wins then he will get a few ministries to grow TPP.   So next day or two he has to judge how angry his base would be if he joined Hou-Ko and if that anger could lead to Hou-Ko losing to DPP Lai.  His long-term goal is to make TPP a viable third party.  At a certain level this is what the KMT is trying to prevent which makes this alliance hard to form and maintain.

[peterthlee]

So they continue on holding the suspense. What would be the endgame?