India 2023 assembly elections

[jaichind]

BSP leader Mayawati’s nephew and political heir Akash got married yesterday.




This is the problem.  BSP is supposed to be the party of Dalits (well, they claim all backward but in reality, it is a Dalit party).  These pictures do not project an image of Mayawati experiencing the typical life of a Dalit.  This stuff sort of did make sense politically back in the 1990s when the goal was to be a symbol and show that a Dalit can be successful materially and then reach the heights of political and business power.  These days these pictures run against the political needs of the BSP.

[jaichind]

ECI came out with the Karnataka assembly election schedule: Voting May 10th, counting May 13th

Rahul Gandhi's disqualification issue will work in favor of the INC and BJP and against JD(S).  A lot will depend on how tactical voting goes. Historically there are some 3-way seats (INC vs BJP vs JD(S)) but most seats are either (INC vs BJP) or (INC vs JD(S)) (mostly in the Southern Mysore region) with almost no (BJP vs JD(S)) seats.  BJP tends to be stronger in Coastal Karnataka.



As a result, even though there were elections where BJP won more seats than INC (2004 2008 2018) the INC has won the most vote share in every election since 1994 (when JD won a small majority with the largest vote share over a divided INC (Bangarappa INC splinter KCP in the fray)).

[jaichind]

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=281096.msg6008715#msg6008715

Is my writeup on the history of Karnataka elections

Detailed 2018 results are

Prelim Karnataka 2018 assembly election (only 222 out of 224 seats voted)

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

INC+         222                79             38.75%   (SWJI was part of INC+)

INC rebel                          0              1.03%

JD(S)+      217                38             18.79%  (BSP was part of JD(S)

JS(S) rebel                       0               0.18%

BJP          222               104             36.57%

BJP rebel                         0               0.71%

KPJP          30                 1                0.21%

Which is not too far away from my adjusted exit poll based seat projection algorithm

To get                                        BJP    INC  JD(S)   Others
                                                107    86     26         3

In fact given the vote shares my seat projection would be what one would expect.  It seems there must have been some BJP->JD(S) tactical voting to explain this.  Looking at the seats that JD(S) won over INC by narrow margins one does notice that in most of them the BJP vote share is lower than the 2013 BJP+ bloc (BJP KJP BSRCP BJP rebels) in an election when the BJP bloc rose which sorts of validates my theory.

If one takes 2013 election results and group vote share by blocs: INC+ (INC plus rebels), BJP+(BJP, KJP BSRCP BJP rebels) and JD(S)-BSP (JD(S) BSP JD(S) rebels) the 2013 to 2018 vote share shift are:

INC bloc:     +1.36%
BJP bloc:     +3.04%
JD(S) bloc:   -2.72%

So relative to 2013 the BJP bloc gains are fairly minor relative to INC bloc which given Karnataka's record of voting out incumbents since the 1980s is a pretty good performance by INC. It seems what did INC in was two factors a) Dalit vote swing toward JD(S)-BSP in INC-BJP marginals helped BJP and b) BJP tactical voting for JD(S) in several INC-JD(S) marginals.

[jaichind]

ABP C-Voter Karnataka poll

             Seats      Vote share
INC         121          40.1%
BJP           74          34.7%
JD(S)        28          17.9%
Others        1



The poll found that the urban vote seems to be swinging toward INC.  PM Modi is still very popular but the BJP state government clearly has anti-incumbency.

[jaichind]

Zee News Matrize Karnataka poll

             Seats    Vote share
BJP          101      38.3%
INC           92       40.4%
JD(S)        27       16.4%
Others        4

[jaichind]

https://thewire.in/rights/protests-in-karnataka-over-new-reservation-policy-ahead-of-state-polls

"Protests in Karnataka Over New Reservation Policy Ahead of State Polls"

In Karnataka, there seems to be some last-minute trickery by BJP to re-shuffle reservation categorization to shift some quotas for government jobs and educational opportunities from backward Muslims, Vokkaliga, and Banjara to  Lingayats to try to shore up Lingayats's support for BJP.  Angering Vokkaliga's vote is not a good idea since they could consolidate behind INC to defeat BJP in INC vs BJP seats when historically they tended to vote JD(S)

[jaichind]

Karnataka poll of polls has INC ahead of BJP by around 20 seats.

These are no good re-elect numbers for BJP.  We can mostly rule out a BJP majority.  A BJP plurality is very unlikely while an INC plurality is very likely with the chances of an INC majority still unknown.

[jaichind]

https://indianexpress.com/article/world/rahul-gandhi-defamation-case-germany-reacts-8527296/

"Germany ‘takes note’ of Rahul Gandhi’s disqualification from Parliament, says ‘expect democratic principles to be applied’"

What I predicted about collective west lecturing has started.  This is a disastrous development for INC and a gift from the heavens for BJP, especially for 2024.  Rahul Gandhi has to disassociate himself from all this ASAP or else a net win for him and INC will turn into a loss.

[jaichind]

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/amritpal-singh-s-first-statement-amid-surrender-speculation-101680090963277.html

"Amritpal Singh's dare to cops in 1st video: 'Would have surrendered if..'"

2 weeks on, Amritpal Singh is still on the loose.  He now even released a video message giving his side of the story.  This is a major embarrassment for the Punjab police.

[Continential]

How is the AAP responding to Amritpal Singh?

[jaichind]

How is the AAP responding to Amritpal Singh?

Given the history of rumored collaboration with the overseas Khalistan movement in the 2017 Punjab assembly election, the AAP is taking a very anti-Amritpal Singh hardline position.  It is SAD while denouncing Amritpal Singh, indicates that the mass arrests of Amritpal Singh's followers are not justified and using it to attack the AAP.

I think this most recent wave of the Khalistan movement is mostly about Jat Sikhs feeling they are losing control of the Sikh identity in Punjab.  The rise of new religious groups like Dera Sacha Sauda which attacks a lot of Sikh Dalits is undermining the Jat social domination of the Sikh landscape.  The conversion of Hindu Dalits to Buddhism a couple of decades ago was counted by the rise of Hindu nationalism to reconsolidate Dalits into the Hindu fold.  One can argue that the Khalistan movement is something similar to trying to pull Sikh Dalits back into the Sikh fold.  As a result, it would be Jat Sikh-dominated SAD that would have some sympathy toward Amritpal Singh.

[jaichind]

https://www.businesstoday.in/latest/politics/story/rahul-gandhi-to-begin-karnataka-campaign-from-place-where-he-made-modi-surname-remark-375318-2023-03-29

"Rahul Gandhi to begin Karnataka campaign from place where he made 'Modi surname' remark"

Rahul Gandhi is going to kick off his campaign Karnataka from the same location where he gave a 2019 speech implying "All thieves are Modi" which got him convicted for criminal defamations and his disqualification as MP.

It seems unlike Gujarat, HP and the 3 NE states the Gandhi clan will go all in in Karnataka on the premise that INC is likely to win and get credit for the win.  Even though INC won HP last year Rahul Gandhi did not do much to help (although Priyanka Gandhi did some) and was not really able to claim credit for that win.

[OSR stands with Israel]

These authoritarians are all taking pages out of each other's books, aren't they? This is pretty much the same thing that was done to Ekrem İmamoğlu in Turkey.

I am fine with this statement as long as you will also apply it in the case of Trump if and when he faces an indictment and lump the USA into the mix as you have above.

So do you think both cases are still comparable

[jaichind]

These authoritarians are all taking pages out of each other's books, aren't they? This is pretty much the same thing that was done to Ekrem İmamoğlu in Turkey.

I am fine with this statement as long as you will also apply it in the case of Trump if and when he faces an indictment and lump the USA into the mix as you have above.

So do you think both cases are still comparable

Yes in the sense that both are technicalities and fit Beria's dictum "Show me the man and I'll show you the crime".  People with different last names (other than Gandhi and Trump) would never be charged with the crimes they are being charged with.  The Trump one is worse in the sense that it involved a novel interpretation of the law whereas with Gandhi the charge is not absurd but the fact that he was found guilty is fishy.  At least with Trump, there is zero chance he will be convincted.

[jaichind]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/details-of-pm-modis-college-degree-not-needed-says-gujarat-court-fines-arvind-kejriwal-rs-25-000-news-agency-ani-3908894

"Details Of PM Degree Not Needed, Says Court, Fines Arvind Kejriwal: Report"

Gujarat court also fines AAP CM Kejriwal for asking for details of Modi's Master's degree from Gujarat University

[jaichind]

This is the "Duplicate Copy" of Modi's 1983 Master's Degree in PoliSci from Gujarat University.  AAP CM Kejriwal demands the original to be made public insinuating that the degree is fake.

This reminds me of ROC DPP Prez Tsai and her LSE doctorate thesis.  DPP Prez Tsai worked with LSE to make that thesis "top secret" which merely triggered the opposition to think that her thesis could be fake or plagiarized.



This is an interesting shift in strategy by AAP CM Kejriwal.  After AAP got crushed by BJP in the 2014 and 2019 LS elections in Delhi Kejriwal shifted to going after the local BJP and not attacking Modi.  It paid off in the 2020 Delhi assembly elections.  It seems for the 2024 LS elections Kejriwal has national ambitions and is starting to go into Modi attack mode.

[jaichind]

The "Modi's Master's degree is fake camp" also released a 1976 report card at the University of Delhi where Modi got 121 out of 400 implying that Modi did not have the academic abilities to get a Master's degree.

[jaichind]

Yes in the sense that both are technicalities and fit Beria's dictum "Show me the man and I'll show you the crime".  People with different last names (other than Gandhi and Trump) would never be charged with the crimes they are being charged with.  The Trump one is worse in the sense that it involved a novel interpretation of the law whereas with Gandhi the charge is not absurd but the fact that he was found guilty is fishy.  At least with Trump, there is zero chance he will be convicted.

The Chinese version of this dictum goes much further back from the book 左傳 (Tso Chuan) written around 300 BC where there is a phrase "欲加之罪，何患無詞" which means "when you desire to find someone guilty of a crime, there is never a lack of some justification"

[jaichind]

Kejriwal is now calling PM Modi "illiterate".  I wonder if this is a move to shift the narrative around him being the main enemy of the BJP vs Rahul Gandhi given Rahul Gandhi's disqualification as MP.   His repeated demand that Modi makes public his Master's degree diploma reminds me of the Trump vs Obama birth certificate battle over 10 years ago.

[jaichind]

https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/george-soros-aims-to-initiate-regime-change-in-india-these-designs-will-be-crushed-smriti-irani/article66520248.ece

"BJP urges citizens to thwart George Soros’ call for `regime change’"

BJP accuses Soros of trying to impose regime change in India.

[jaichind]

https://thewire.in/world/rahul-gandhi-case-disqualification-eu

"EU Says it Is Closely Following Case Against Rahul Gandhi and His 'Dismissal' From Parliament"

Another gift for the BJP

I wonder if the BJP will also say that it is "closely following" the case against Trump.

[jaichind]

AITC tweet of joke that Trump joins BJP to avoid arrest.  There are many rumors of defections to BJP from opposition ranks to avoid anti-corruption investigations

https://twitter.com/MahuaMoitra/status/1642911132137721856

The joke is based on the fact that in the last few years, all anti-corruption targets are around 95% from the opposition and 5% from BJP.

While there are explicit biases in investigation agencies, it is also true that corruption in the BJP is lower than the opposition on a per capita basis.  The reasons are

a) BJP is a cadre party so many members are in politics for the Hindutva ideology and not money
b) BJP is now the natural power of government so BJP politicians have the time to wait to make money from patronage. In contrast, opposition politicians can lose elections anytime and have less access to patronage so they will seek non-standard ways to get money which will run afoul of anti-corruption units.

[jaichind]

https://www.greatandhra.com/politics/andhra-news/no-option-but-to-ally-with-tdp-pawan-tells-bjp-128421

"No option but to ally with TDP, Pawan tells BJP"

In AP, it seems JSP will most likely ditch BJP to form an alliance with TDP.

In response, BJP roped in former INC CM Nallari Kiran Kumar Reddy to join BJP.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/can-kiran-reddy-get-the-bjp-a-foothold-in-andhra-pradesh/articleshow/99342631.cms

"Can Kiran Reddy get the BJP a foothold in Andhra Pradesh?"

Frankly Nallari Kiran Kumar Reddy has zero popular bases in AP so this might be a case of 0 + 0 = 0

Right now AP is fairly bipolar between YSRCP and TDP.  This is why JSP will go with TDP as opposed to BJP.  BJP and INC need to find a way to join one of these two parties.  YSRCP is stronger with Muslims and Christians (most of them are former Dalits) so the natural outcome is BJP restoring the old TDP-BJP alliance while INC aligns with YSRCP.  Due to all sorts of personality issues both BJP and INC will be out in the cold in AP.

[jaichind]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/chennai/eps-becomes-aiadmk-general-secretary/articleshow/99053258.cms?from=mdr

"EPS becomes AIADMK general secretary; OPS petition rejected in Madras HC"

EPS's position as AIADMK leader and OPS's expulsion from AIADMK final.

The local TN BJP which is hostile to EPS will push for a BJP-OPS splinter-AMMK(+Sasikala)-PMK-DMDK alliance as a third front.  It is not clear if Modi-Shah will see things that way.  Also, I am not sure PMK-DMDK would not prefer to stay allied with AIADMK instead of this arrangement.  One way or another all these battles are very good news to the DMK-INC bloc and also increase the leverage DMK has over INC in TN.

[jaichind]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/nitish-tejashwi-call-on-rahul-offer-to-bridge-gap-between-congress-sp-aap/articleshow/99445497.cms

"Bihar CM Nitish & his deputy Tejashwi call on Rahul Gandhi, offer to bridge gap between Congress & SP, AAP"

Looks like JD(U) and RJD is trying to work out a grand anti-BJP alliance with INC SP and AAP for 2024.