Canadian by-elections 2023

[King of Kensington]

Jewish population by riding, 2021

Thornhill  34,775  30.5%
Mount Royal  27,665  25.9%
Eglinton-Lawrence  25,520  22.2%
St. Paul's  17,280  15.1%
York Centre  15,300  14.3%
Outremont  12,125  12%
NDG-Westmount  10,295  9.9%
Pierrefonds-Dollard  8,480  7.8%
University-Rosedale  7,115  6.9%
Don Valley West  6,345  6.3%
Winnipeg South Centre  5,920  6.3%
King-Vaughan  8,750  5.9%
Saint Laurent  5,540  5.5%

Jews are at least 20% of the population in three ridings, seven ridings (Westmount close enough) are at least one tenth Jewish.

[lilTommy]

Jewish population by riding, 2021

Thornhill  34,775  30.5%
Mount Royal  27,665  25.9%
Eglinton-Lawrence  25,520  22.2%
St. Paul's  17,280  15.1%
York Centre  15,300  14.3%
Outremont  12,125  12%
NDG-Westmount  10,295  9.9%
Pierrefonds-Dollard  8,480  7.8%
University-Rosedale  7,115  6.9%
Don Valley West  6,345  6.3%
Winnipeg South Centre  5,920  6.3%
King-Vaughan  8,750  5.9%
Saint Laurent  5,540  5.5%

Jews are at least 20% of the population in three ridings, seven ridings (Westmount close enough) are at least one tenth Jewish.

Also note; Af all the ridings above, all but two are held by the Liberals (Thornhill and King-Vaughan are CPC held)

[adma]

There's a secondary Jewish population cluster around Wychwood Barns-Hillcrest Park-Humewood (these census tracts are around 20% Jewish).  The Jewish population has actually grown quite significantly in the past decade or two - presumably it's attractive because it's located near both Bathurst-Eglinton and more central neighborhoods like the Annex.  This area is politically progressive.

And notably, despite "trends" ascribed to the Jewish demographic, it has shown *no* signs of swinging rightward.

What *has* swung rightward, and for reasons more Ford Nation-adjacent, is Oakwood Village in the far NW.

[King of Kensington]

Only 1/3 of the Jews in St. Paul's live in the three census tracts that make up Forest Hill and adjacent Cedarvale.  The other 2/3 live in more mixed areas where the Conservatives do poorly.

[King of Kensington]

The Liberals easily won by-elections in two "establishmentarian" ridings recently, NDG-Westmount and Winnipeg South Centre.

Re: NDG-Westmount and St. Paul's, you get a kind of "Westmount" vibe around Avenue Rd. and St. Clair and an "NDG vibe" around Vaughan Rd. or Wychwood.

[adma]

The Liberals easily won by-elections in two "establishmentarian" ridings recently, NDG-Westmount and Winnipeg South Centre.

Re: NDG-Westmount and St. Paul's, you get a kind of "Westmount" vibe around Avenue Rd. and St. Clair and an "NDG vibe" around Vaughan Rd. or Wychwood.

And WSC in particular offers a hint of how, contrary to "narratives", one *could* well see the "NDP left" vote shift Lib in a federal byelection context.  (Well, depending, as Toronto's not Winnipeg, and the Libs aren't benefiting from Ben Carr's bloodline here.  But it's a reminder of how provincial and federal dynamics don't quite equate in the same way in Winnipeg.)

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

First by-election for 2024.
Conception Bay East - Bell Island (Newfoundland and Labrador)

Byelection caused by the resignation of Progressive Conservative MHA David Brazil.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/conception-bay-bell-island-byelection-1.7071664

[mileslunn]

Anyone know when Durham by-election is.  While barring some massive surprise, should stay Conservative but will be interesting to see shifts as so far to date by-elections have not aligned with national polls showing Liberals doing much better and Conservatives worse than polls suggest they would.

[MaxQue]

Anyone know when Durham by-election is.  While barring some massive surprise, should stay Conservative but will be interesting to see shifts as so far to date by-elections have not aligned with national polls showing Liberals doing much better and Conservatives worse than polls suggest they would.

It's not called yet but it will be called soon, the deadline to do so is January 30th.

[toaster]

The Mississauga Mayoral By-election will be interesting to watch, too.  I think so far we have councillors Carolyn Parrish and Stephen Dasko who have announced.  Not sure if Dipika Damerla will also run. I'm not sure about who Bonnie is aligned with, but I think she would support Dipika if she ran?  There isn't really a left/right divide in Mississauga like there is in Toronto, although that kind of manifests generationally between the haves (older, with suburban homes) vs have nots - younger (living in condos, towns, apts).

[Hatman 🍁]

Whoever gets the Ouija board endorsement of Hurricane Hazel's going to win.

[Njall]

The Liberals have nominated Township of Scugog Councillor Robert Rock as their candidate for Durham. He’d previously tried to contest the Conservative nomination but wasn’t cleared as a candidate by the party,