India 2023 assembly elections

[jaichind]

If, as it is most likely, it is hung assembly in Tripura, then the position of TIPRA as kingmaker will be very difficult.  On the one hand, BJP is in a position to provide federal subsidies and potentially help with some variation of greater Tripraland-like autonomy.  On the other hand, the Left Front-INC CM candidate Jitendra Chaudhury is a tribal leader and there will be compulsion within TIPRA to back a tribal CM.

[jaichind]

Tripura turnout is at 76.9% as of 5 PM although this number will go up.  It does seem that turnout will be lower than the 2018 turnout of over 91%.

My guess of results right now are

             Total           2018     
BJP           24            36
IPFT           0              8
CPM          18            16
INC           3               0
TIPRA       15             --

Tribal
BJP            2             10
IPFT           0              8
CPM           2              2
INC            1              0
TIPRA       15             --

Bengali
BJP          22            26
CPM         16            14
INC           2              0
TIPRA       0              -

Bengali seats are mostly status quo with the Left Front-INC alliance making small gains to counter the BJP-attempted Bengali counter-consolidation TIPRA sweep of tribal seats with TIPRA eating into tribal votes from both BJP and Left Front-INC

[jaichind]

https://indianexpress.com/elections/tripura-polls-2023-revised-turnout-8451049/

"Tripura polls: Revised turnout rises to 87.63%; at 89%, more women voted than men"

Turnout in Tripura now at around 88% somewhat less than the 91% in 2018

[jaichind]

Going to an interview with TIPRA founder and leader Pradyot Bikram Manikya Deb Barma after the voting his projection of results seems to be something like

TIPRA      24
CPM         17
INC           6
BJP          13

In my view, his projection for his old party the INC at 5-6 seems pretty optimistic for INC and less likely than his own production of his own TIPRA.

[jaichind]

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/my-son-can-teach-how-to-jitan-manjhi-s-veiled-dig-at-tejashwi-over-cm-post-101676609341199.html

"‘My son can teach how to…’: Jitan Manjhi's veiled dig at Tejashwi over CM post"

In Bihar, after former RLSP leader and now key JD(U) leader Upendra Kushwaha recently started to indirectly attack JD(U) CM Nitish Kumar, now HAM(S) leader  Jitan Ram Manjhi is also coming out to take jabs at RJD.

It seems we are slowly converging toward the configuration of the 2015 assembly elections where RJD-JD(U)-INC was on one side and BJP-RLSP-HAM-LJP was on the other.  Upendra Kushwaha who had led RLSP which had merged into JD(U) now showing signs of jumping out of JD(U) and is most likely to become once again an ally with BJP with the same trend line for   Jitan Ram Manjhi and his HAM they will most likely end up in the BJP camp along with the two LJP factions (RLJP and LJP(RV))

Bihar's political ecosystem is an example of the principles of balance of power especially with "there are no permentate friends or enemies only permentate interests"

[jaichind]

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/shinde-faction-to-get-shiv-sena-name-and-bow-arrow-symbol-orders-ec-101676640175296.html

"Shinde faction to get Shiv Sena name and bow-arrow symbol, orders EC"

Big victory for BSHS in Maharastra.  EC gives SHS symbol and name to BSHS.  So after this, it will be SHS for the Shinde faction and SHS(U) for the Uddhav faction.  The big test will come at the BMC election.  I suspect this is why the BMC election was delayed. It was delayed for this decision so Shinde can have the party name and symbol for the BMC election.

[jaichind]

So with the EC decision, the SHS split becomes final.  It will be SHS led by Shinde and SHS(U) led by  Uddhav Thackeray.

It is interesting because SHS will become the SHS of Bal Thackeray of hard Hindutava Hindu nationalism while SHS(U) will become the SHS of Prabodhankar Thackeray (Bal Thackeray's father) of soft Hindutava based on Marathi regionalism and Hindu reformism.

Bal Thackeray SHS in the 1970s and 1980s were sort of a combination of both these streams.  It is not well known but in the 1980s SHS was in alliance with the Muslim AIML in various elections.  It was only with the rise of the BJP in the early 1990s based on the Ayodhya issue did SHS turn toward 100% hard Hindu nationalism.

[jaichind]

https://indianexpress.com/article/cities/bangalore/chase-away-tipu-lovers-who-chant-ram-bhajans-should-be-here-karnataka-bjp-chief-8447291/

"‘Chase away Tipu lovers, only those who chant Ram bhajans should be here’: Karnataka BJP chief Kateel"

Karnataka BJP chief making a big deal about Tipu Sultan again ahead of the assembly elections. It makes it clear that the anti-Mulsim plank will again be key for BJP's planned re-election campaign.

Tipu Sultan was the de facto ruler of  Mysore (he ruled in the name of the nominal Hindu maharaja) in the late 1700s and was one of the few Indian rulers at the time that fought the British every step of the way.  Tipu Sultan was considered an Indian nationalist hero in post-Independence India and especially in Karnataka but his being a Muslim became a problem for the BJP brand of Indian nationalism.



Over the last 2-3 decades both the national and Karnataka BJP has been trying to "erase" Tipu Sultan from the culture and rebrand him as a Muslim anti-Hindu fanatic (here I do feel BJP has its history wrong) and not an anti-British nationalist hero.

I have always been fascinated by the story and history of Tipu Sultan and his father Hyder Ali.   Whenever I meet an Indian from Karnataka I always ask them about their view of Tipu Sultan.

[jaichind]

https://www.truescoopnews.com/newsdetail/i-eat-beef-and-i-am-in-bjp-i-see-no-problem-in-it-meghalaya-bjp-chief

"'I eat beef and I am in BJP, I see no problem in it': Meghalaya BJP chief"

Meghalaya is only around 12% Hindu so the local BJP has to deviate from the national BJP to survive.

[jaichind]

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/elections/assembly-elections/meghalaya/in-meghalaya-its-allies-against-each-other/articleshow/98031441.cms

"In Meghalaya, it’s allies against each other"

In Meghalaya, the ruling NPP is spending all its time attacking AITC and INC while its former allies BJP and UDP are spending all their time attacking NPP.  It seems on the ground there is high anti-incumbency so UDP and BJP decided to "break" with NPP to try to capture the anti-NPP vote.  NPP knows that its path toward being the largest party is to hope for an even split of the anti-NPP vote so they have the incentive to try to push the anti-NPP vote away from AITC and INC.
 
INC lost all its MLAs so it is running a bunch of fresh new and young faces.  The good news for INC is that this allows them to capture the youth vote.  The bad news for INC is that any elected INC MLA will have no real attachment to INC and will easily defect to parties like NPP or AITC after the election.

[jaichind]

https://www.firstpost.com/opinion/why-george-soros-is-bound-to-lose-his-dirty-war-against-india-12175692.html

"Why George Soros is bound to lose his dirty war against India"

It seems Soros added Modi to his enemies list by calling for de facto regime change in India with Modi's ouster.  Soros might be rich but I think taking on Trump, Xi, Putin, and Modi all at once seems out of his league.  There is already a significant reaction from the BJP/Modi crowd in India.

[jaichind]

https://www.indiatvnews.com/bihar/news-upendra-kushwaha-resigns-from-jdu-announces-to-form-new-party-nitish-kumar-bihar-politics-latest-updates-2023-02-20-848760

"Disgruntled JD-U leader Upendra Kushwaha resigns, forms new party"

As expected Upendra Kushwaha quit JD(U) and formed a new party, RLJD.

This is the third incarnation of a Upendra Kushwaha JD(U) splinter.  We have RSP of 2007-2009, RLSP of 2013-2021, and now RLJD 2023-. RLSP did rounds in NDA and UPA and has been allied with JD(U) within NDA (2017-2019) before leaving to join UPA and then going on his own in 2020 followed by a merger back into JD(U). 

[jaichind]

Pro-INC Lok Poll poll of North India

BJP 5 INC 7


Back in 2019, it was BJP 6 INC 8

[jaichind]

https://www.deccanchronicle.com/nation/politics/170223/meghalaya-govt-among-most-corrupt-in-the-country-amit-shah.html

"Meghalaya govt among 'most corrupt' in the country: Amit Shah"

BJP's Amit Shay says the Meghalaya government is among the most corrupt in India. 
Problem: Until a few weeks ago the BJP was part of the "most corrupt" government in India.

[jaichind]

https://swarajyamag.com/politics/the-likely-outcome-in-tripura-bjp-the-single-largest-party-successful-debut-of-tipra-motha

"The Likely Outcome In Tripura: BJP The Single-Largest Party; Successful Debut Of Tipra Motha"

Pro-BJP Swarajya magazine seems to admit that BJP will most likely fall short of the majority in Tripura partly because of the TIPRA surge in tribal seats.

[jaichind]

Upendra Kushwaha's third rebellion against Nitish Kumar's JD(U) in Bihar has to be viewed in the context of caste rivalries and the strategies of "sandwiching" your caste opponents

Traditionally the Upper caste dominated politics in the form of the INC.  In the late 1980s, this changed as the BJP started to displace the INC as the Upper Caste party and JD pushed forward vs backward politics.  The backward was initially led by Lalu Yadav since the Yadav caste was at the top of the OBC and led the backward mobilization. 

The Upper caste sought to counter the Yadav by seeking out allies within the middle OBC in order to "sandwich" the Yadavs.  The main middle OBC castes are the Kushwaha and Kurmi.  Nitish Kumar is a Kurmi and Upendra Kushwaha is a Kushwaha.  These two castes formed the basis of what became JD(U) which became an ally of Upper caste dominated BJP.  Nitish Kumar in charge of JD(U) was always a problem for his main lieutenant Upendra Kushwaha since the Kushwaha caste is a good deal bigger than the Kurmi caste so Upendra Kushwaha is always going to feel that he should be in charge of JD(U) or at least be Nitish Kumar's successor which in term led to various rebellions and three separate Kushwaha based JD(U) splinters.

In the meantime in order to contain Nitish Kumar's power the BJP then tried to "sandwich" JD(U) by mobilization the Dalits.  The Paswans, being the top of the Dalits in Bihar, became the main center of Dalit mobilization which in turn formed LJP.  Nitish Kumar then tried to "sandwich" the Paswan-controlled LJP by trying to mobilize the lower Dalits which he called Mahadalit into the JD(U).  This is the reason why the LJP cannot stay in an alliance with JD(U) for long since JD(U) will always try to mobilize the Mahadalit sidestepping LJP while the LJP will always try to become the leader of all Dalits.

[jaichind]

I looked over the candidate list for Meghalaya and came up with my wild back-of-the-envelope guess of the results.  I most likely underestimated minor parties.

                Guess          2018
INC              9              21
INC rebel                       2
AITC             8
NCP                               1
PDF              2                4
NPP            24              20
BJP              5                2
Ind-UDP                        1
UDP           12                6
KHNAM                          1
HSPDP                           2

There are two main ecosystems with Garo and Khasi-speaking clusters that have very different dynamics.  UDP only has strength in Khasi areas while the Garo branch of INC has mostly gone over tie AITC.

By region
Jaintia Hills (UDP stronger here so anti-NPP vote will go to UDP)
                Guess          2018
INC                               1
NPP              2               3
UDP              5               3
 

Khasi Hills(historically free-to-all with very splintered vote, anti-NPP vote split which helps NPP)
                Guess          2018
INC              5              10
INC rebel                       1                          
PDF              2               4
NPP            12               5
BJP              3               2
Ind-UDP                        1
UDP             7               3
KHNAM                         1
HSPDP                          2  

Garo Hills (This is where most of INC went over to AITC with some anti-NPP consolidation)
                Guess          2018
INC              4              10
INC rebel                       1
AITC             8
NCP                               1
NPP            10              12
BJP              2                

[jaichind]

Modi did a road show and a campaign rally in Meghalaya




Note Modi is wearing a Meghalaya tribal hat so he fits in.

Modi is fairly popular in Meghalaya due to the federal government shifting a lot of subsidies to the Northeast last few years coupled with effective distribution of those subsidies to the grassroots.  But Modi and not BJP seems to get credit for these freebies so it is not clear how much of Modi's popularity will rub off on BJP.

[jaichind]

Main talking/points by each party in Meghalaya

BJP: NPP and AITC are dynasty parties.  Also NPP is corrupt.  
NPP: AITC is a Bengali party. (note NPP is in a struggle with AITC in Garo Hills so trying to paint former INC CM and now AITC leader Mukul Sangma makes sense)
UDP: NPP and AITC are  Garo Hills  parties (UDP is stronger in Khasi Hills and Jaintia Hills and is making its appeal that these areas rally around UDP to stop the recent trend of CM coming from Garo Hills)
INC: BJP is anti-Christian. INC seems more interested to beating down BJP than winning itself.

Politics are very personal in Meghalaya and party label does not matter that much.  India Today said when they went to Garo Hills towns asking to visit the local AITC headquarters no one knew what they were talking about.  After a while the local people said "Oh you mean  Mukul Sangma headquarters ?  Yeah, I will show you the way"

[jaichind]

Here is Modi at at Nagaland election rally wearing a Nagaland tribal outfit.  This election is not interesting because it is clear that NDPP-BJP is headed for a landslide victory with even NPF not really trying anymore.

[jaichind]

https://www.rediff.com/news/report/supporters-of-khalistan-sympathiser-clash-with-police-in-amritsar/20230223.htm

"With swords and guns, Khalistani supporters clash with police in Amritsar"

It seems under AAP there has been a resurgence of the Khalistan movement.  A key aide of a Khalistan movement leader was arrested and after mass protests by Khalistani supporters, the police backed down and released him.



There were always rumors that AAP has connections with radical overseas Khalistan outfits and was going to be soft on Khalistan organizations.  So far it seems this might be true.

[jaichind]

The release of a key aide of the radical Sikh cleric and Khalistan supporter Amritpal Singh after his supporters stormed the police station reminds me of the 2020 Mexico release of El Chapo's son after the Sinaloa cartel stormed Culiacan.

This new radical  Sikh cleric and Khalistan supporter Amritpal Singh seems to come out of nowhere.  His movement was mostly about Sikh and social reform and then mushroomed into a large Sikh radical organization that also supports Khalistan.



If the Punjab government does not get this guy under control he gives me vibes of radical Sikh cleric Bhindranwale that radicalized Punjab in the late 1970s and early 1980s and led to the storming of the Golden Temple and the assassination of Indira Gandhi in 1984.  Insurgency in Punjab did not really subside until the mid to late 1990s.  Bhindranwale was never for Khalistan but just like Amritpal Singh started as a Sikh and social reformer before his movement mushroomed into a radical organization with political goals.

[jaichind]

Voting is about to start soon in Nagaland and Meghalaya.  

For Meghalaya, I read some more ground reports that AITC is surging at expense of INC, Modi's popularity is having an effect and INC is not spending much money this year.  I have an updated guess.  Most ground reports have INC as near zero seats.  I still think the INC brand will have some weight and get them 5 seats when they run quality candidates.  I still most likely underestimated the micro parties and rebels.

                Guess          2018
INC              5              21
INC rebel                       2
AITC           12
NCP                               1
PDF              2                4
NPP            23              20
BJP              6                2
Ind-UDP                        1
UDP           11                6
VPP             1    
KHNAM                          1
HSPDP                           2

There are two main ecosystems with Garo and Khasi-speaking clusters that have very different dynamics.  UDP only has strength in Khasi areas while the Garo branch of INC has mostly gone over tie AITC.

By region
Jaintia Hills (UDP stronger here so anti-NPP vote will go to UDP)
                Guess          2018
INC                               1
NPP              2               3
UDP              5               3
 

Khasi Hills(historically free-to-all with very splintered vote, anti-NPP vote split which helps NPP)
                Guess          2018
INC              4              10
INC rebel                       1                          
PDF              2               4
NPP            12               5
BJP              4               2
Ind-UDP                        1
UDP             6               3
VPP              1
KHNAM                         1
HSPDP                          2  

Garo Hills (This is where most of INC went over to AITC with some anti-NPP consolidation)
                Guess          2018
INC              1              10
INC rebel                       1
AITC           12
NCP                               1
NPP              9              12
BJP              2                

[jaichind]

https://theprint.in/india/meghalaya-assembly-elections-polling-postponed-in-sohiong-constituency-after-udp-candidates-demise/1387475/

"Meghalaya Assembly elections: Polling postponed in Sohiong constituency after UDP candidate’s demise"

In Meghalaya's Sohiong the UDP candidate passed away leading to a delay in voting in this district.

In 2018 the results here were

HSPDP     46.1 -> defected to NPP
INC         43.7 -> defected to UDP
PDF         10.3

This time around it will be NPP vs UDP in a re-run of the 2018 election.  The UDP candidate (who ran in 2018 as INC) passed away which clears the way for the NPP incumbent (elected in 2018 as HSPDP) to win for sure, especially when NPP will return as the largest party and holds the CM seat when the election does take place.

[jaichind]

After voting is done in  Nagaland and Meghalaya on Feb 27th in theory exit polls for  Tripura, Nagaland, and Meghalaya can then come out.  Not sure if there will be any.  All I know is that exit polls for the NE always were not very good and most likely overestimates the incumbent.  The counting will be on March 3rd.