India 2023 assembly elections

[jaichind]

Axis My India exit polls with vote share

[jaichind]

My back of the envelope projection of Meghalaya

Voting is about to start soon in Nagaland and Meghalaya.  

For Meghalaya, I read some more ground reports that AITC is surging at expense of INC, Modi's popularity is having an effect and INC is not spending much money this year.  I have an updated guess.  Most ground reports have INC as near zero seats.  I still think the INC brand will have some weight and get them 5 seats when they run quality candidates.  I still most likely underestimated the micro parties and rebels.

                Guess          2018
INC              5              21
INC rebel                       2
AITC           12
NCP                               1
PDF              2                4
NPP            23              20
BJP              6                2
Ind-UDP                        1
UDP           11                6
VPP             1    
KHNAM                          1
HSPDP                           2

Seem to match NDTV poll of exit polls results for Meghalaya

NDTV poll of exit polls
 
Meghalaya (60)
NPP             20
AITC           11
UDP            10
BJP              6
INC               6
Others          7

I even got right my guess that my numbers most likely underestimates the minor parties a bit.

[jaichind]

Vote counting is in progress.

BJP+ slight majority in Tripura
NPP outperforming in Meghalaya will lead government by roping in a couple of other parties
NDPP-BJP is underperforming in Nagaland but with a solid majority.  NPF also underperforming

[jaichind]

Tripura (I would say more than 50% of the vote are in already)

               Ahead     Vote share
BJP+          33             41.4%
BJP rebel      1
Left-INC     14             36.4%
TIPRA         12           ~18%    (ECI does not break out TIPRA so this is my estimate)

[jaichind]

Meghalaya (not as much vote in so vote share not relevant yet)  Lead

NPP             27
UDP              7
INC               5
BJP               5
AITC             5
VPP              3
HSPDP          2
PDF              1
Ind.              3


Nagaland (not as many votes are in so vote share is not as relevant)  - total outperformance of non-INC non-NPF opposition

NDPP-BJP    34
NCP              5
NPF              4
LPP(RV)        3
INC              2
JD(U)           2
RPI(A)          2
NPP              2
Ind.              5

[jaichind]

Tripura

The TIPRA vote ended up being uneven which lowered the number of seats they won and while they took some BJP tribal votes in Bengali seats the BJP won a swing in their favor in Bengali seats to make up for it.

                   Ahead       Vote share
BJP-IPFT          34             40.4%  (BJP 33 IPFT 1)
Left-INC          15             35.7%  (CPM 11 INC 4)
TIPRA             11           ~20%    (ECI does not break out TIPRA so this is my estimate)


Meghalaya

VPP, HSPDP, and independents outperformed.  AITC underperformed as did INC and BJP a bit

                   Ahead        Vote share
NPP                23             31.5%
UDP               10              16.5%
AITC                5              13.3%
VPP                 5
INC                 4              13.4%
BJP                  3                9.2%
PDF                 2                1.8%
HSPDP             2                3.9%
Ind.                 3
                
Nagaland

NDPP-BJP solid majority with no mega-landslide but NPF and INC both also underperformed.  Non-INC non-NPF opposition outperformed.

                  Ahead        Vote share
NDPP-BJP      39                52.5%  (NDPP 26 BJP 13)
NCP                5                  8.0%
NPF                 3                 7.0%
LJP(RS)           3                 9.1%
RPI(A)            2
JD(U)              1                 3.3%
INC                 0                 3.8%
Ind.                4

[OSR stands with Israel]

So is this overall a good result for the BJP or no

[jaichind]

So is this overall a good result for the BJP or no

I think they did a bit better than expected in Tripura and a bit worse than expected in Nagaland.  Meghalaya I think is a bit negative in the sense that they would want the NPP seat count to be lower to increase their leverage.  I think overall it is an OK election night for BJP since it could have been worse.

[jaichind]

My initial estimate of Tripura vote share by seat type

Bengali
BJP          49%
Left-INC   44%
TIPRA        6%

Tribal
TIPRA       44%
BJP-IPFT   30%
Left-INC    24%

Left-INC outperformed in Tribal areas cutting into the TIPRA vote and allowing the BJP to get a bunch of tribal seats.  Also TIPRA vote in tribal areas was uneven which led to underperformance.

[jaichind]

Tripura

The TIPRA vote ended up being uneven which lowered the number of seats they won and while they took some BJP tribal votes in Bengali seats the BJP won a swing in their favor in Bengali seats to make up for it.

                   Ahead       Vote share
BJP-IPFT          33             40.2%  (BJP 32 IPFT 1)
Left-INC          14             36.0%  (CPM 11 INC 3)
TIPRA             13           ~20.5%    (ECI does not break out TIPRA so this is my estimate)



Meghalaya

VPP, HSPDP, and independents outperformed.  AITC underperformed as did INC and BJP a bit

                   Ahead        Vote share
NPP                25             31.3%
UDP               11              16.4%
AITC                5              13.7%
INC                 5              13.3%
VPP                 4
BJP                  3                9.2%
PDF                 2                1.8%
HSPDP             2                3.6%
Ind.                 2
                

Nagaland

NDPP-BJP solid majority with no mega-landslide but NPF and INC both also underperformed.  Non-INC non-NPF opposition outperformed.

                  Ahead        Vote share
NDPP-BJP      36                51.2%  (NDPP 24 BJP 12)
NCP                7                  9.3%
NPP                5                  5.8%
LJP(RS)           3                 8.5%
NPF                 2                 7.1%
RPI(A)            2
JD(U)              1                 3.3%
INC                 0                 3.6%
Ind.                4

[jaichind]

I think TIPRA's Pradyot Deb Barma is secretly relieved that BJP won a narrow majority.  The alternative would be that he would have to back from the outside a BJP or CPM government without any prospect Tipraland which will undermine his image with his followers.

Tipraland is sort of like slave reparations with the USA woke left. It is never meant to take place and instead  it is meant to keep on dangling it to milk more votes every election. 

[jaichind]

Counting mostly done

Tripura
                   Ahead       Vote share
BJP-IPFT          33             40.2%  (BJP 32 IPFT 1)
Left-INC          14             35.9%  (CPM 11 INC 3)
TIPRA             13              20.1% 


Meghalaya
                   Ahead        Vote share
NPP                26             31.4%
UDP               11              16.2%
AITC                5              13.8%
INC                 5              13.2%
VPP                 4
BJP                  2                9.3%
PDF                 2                1.9%
HSPDP             2                3.6%
Ind.                 2
               

Nagaland
                  Ahead        Vote share
NDPP-BJP      37                51.1%  (NDPP 25 BJP 12)
NCP                7                  9.6%
NPP                5                  5.8%
LJP(RS)           2                 8.7%
NPF                 2                 7.1%
RPI(A)            2
JD(U)              1                 3.3%
INC                 0                 3.5%
Ind.                4

[jaichind]

https://www.deccanherald.com/election/bjp-npp-to-form-government-in-meghalaya-1196752.html

"BJP, NPP to form government in Meghalaya"

After attacking the NPP government which it was part of as the "most corrupt in India" the BJP will now rejoin that government.  They will most likely rope in parties like UDP PDF HSPDP, which were part of the previous government as well before running separately in this election,  and the two independents.  VPP was fairly anti-NPP during the campaign and will most likely stay in the opposition along with INC and AITC.

[jaichind]

https://www.deccanherald.com/election/tipra-motha-to-sit-in-the-opposition-in-tripura-pradyot-deb-barma-1196761.html

"Tipra Motha to sit in the Opposition in Tripura: Pradyot Deb Barma"

There was some talk right after the counting that BJP might rope in TIPRA to support its government given the thin majority.  It seems TIPRA most likely rejected such an arrangement since to do so without guarantees in writing for Tripraland would undermine his party and his leadership.

I think the way out for BJP is to break the INC (just 3 MLAs) to add to its numbers.  One of the INC MLAs defected to BJP before the 2018 elections and defected back to INC in 2021.  There is no reason why he cannot defect back again with the entire INC caucus. 

[jaichind]

NCP will become the main opposition party in Nagaland with 7 MLAs.  What a surprise.  No one saw that coming.  Even if NPF totally bombed and the NDPP-BJP does not sweep all the seats, which was what took place, one would expect NPP or even JD(U) to have a breakout election and become the largest opposition party.

[jaichind]

I mapped out Tripura results

IPFT contested in a seat that BJP allocated to itself which I am excluding from this.  BJP rebels hit IPFT in tribal seats.  INC got more difficult seats but actually outperformed Left Front in terms of vote share in seats contested.  It shows that INC is more effective than Left Front to regain some of the pre-2018 old INC bases that have since gone over to the BJP.

                  Contest        Won         Vote share       Vote share in
                                                                           contest seat
BJP+              60             33             40.70%
BJP                  55             32             39.51%          42.93%
IPFT                  5               1               1.19%          14.98%

BJP rebel                                           0.66%

CPM+            60              14             36.52%
Left                 47             11              27.84%          35.47%
INC                 13               3               8.68%           40.34%

TIPRA            42              13             19.97%         28.68%

AITC             28                0               0.89%              1.92%

AB                17                0               0.44%              1.54%  (Bengali regionalist)

[jaichind]

To get a sense of what took place in Tripura I broke down the 60 seats into

a) 20 tribal seats (understand that there are Bengalis living here too but they are in the clear minority)
b) 3 Muslim seats
c) 16 Bengali seats with almost no tribals (TIPRA did not contest)
d) 13 Bengali seats with some tribals
e) 8 Bengali seats with significant tribals

We can then compare 2023 vs 2018 by looking at seats and vote share won by BJP-IPFT, Left-INC (they ran separately in 2018 but I can add their votes up), and TIPRA
            
                    
                                   2023                               2018
                           Won    Vote share            Won          Vote share
Bengali seats(16)
BJP                        7         48.48%              13              53.37%
Left-INC                 9         48.74%                3              45.57%

Muslim seats(3)
BJP+                     0          40.27%                0              38.87%
Left-INC                3           53.96%               3              60.03%
TIPRA                    0            2.51%                              

Bengali seats - some tribals(13)
BJP+                   11           47.34%               6               49.10%
Left-INC                2           41.69%               7               49.86%
TIPRA                   0             9.73%

Bengali seats - significant tribals(8 )
BJP+                    8            43.53%              7                51.55%
Left-INC               0             31.08%              1               47.06%
TIPRA                   0            23.13%

Tribal seats (20)
BJP+                   7             28.44%            18                53.93%
Left-INC               0            22.28%              2                42.51%
TIPRA                13             45.17%             0                  2.29%* (INPT which merged into TIPRA)

Takeways

1) Tribal seats - TIPRA ate up a lot of the tribal vote.  TIPRA had expected to win 17-19 seats but they failed to do so because Left-INC outperformed here.  It seems TIPRA's last-minute moves to potentially align with BJP shifted some of the pro-Left tribal votes back to Left-INC and saved the BJP-IPFT from a complete wipeout.

2) In Bengali seats with few tribals (TIPRA did not contest) note that Left-INC generated an anti-incumbent swing and gained a bunch of seats from the BJP.

3) In Bengali seats with some tribals the BJP was able to gain based on Bengali anti-TIPRA counter- consolidation which made up for tribal votes BJP lost to TIPRA.  Note that TIPRA also ate up pro-Left-INC tribal votes  which help split the anti-BJP vote producing seat gains for the BJP

4) Note in Muslim Bengali seats the BJP vote share actually went up which means that there was some anti-TIPRA counter-consolidation for BJP here as well.

So the overall narrative was that TIPRA's last-minute moved to potentially align with BJP cost it a sweep while such last-minute BJP-TIPRA talks did not prevent a Bengali counter-consolidation in favor of BJP in Bengali seats with some tribal populations where the tribal-TIPRA "threat" was more visible.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Meanwhile in Punjab

https://twitter.com/ARanganathan72/status/1628738354329313283

[jaichind]

Khalistan tends to surge in Punjab when the state government is viewed as weak.  The definition of "weak" is not about the size of the majority but more about "the state government taking orders from Delhi."  AAP being a one-person party who is also the CM of Delhi is part of the driver of the rise of Khalistan again.

[jaichind]

In Meghalaya, it seems UDP was hatching a plot to form a government with the support of INC and AITC ad then try to rope in others to stop a NPP government.  This effort failed but it does mean that for now, UDP will be in the opposition along with INC, AITC, and VPP.

[jaichind]

By-elections result came out on the same day as the assembly elections.  Mostly fairly anti-incumbent.

Jharkhand's Ramgarh (INC MLA arrest for corruption)

AJSU               50.7 (backed by BJP)
INC                 41.1 (backed by JMM)

Back in 2020, it was

INC                 44.9 (backed by JMM)
AJSU               32.0
BJP                 14.3  

Given the state government is JMM-INC one would expect INC to hold on.  But it seems AJSU and BJP vote bases fused to defeat INC.




Maharashtra's Chinchwad (BJP MLA passed away)

BJP                 47.2 (backed by SHS)
NCP                34.6 (backed by INC and SHS(U)
SHS(U) rebel   15.4 (same as the SHS rebel that ran in 2019 with the support of INC and NCP)

back in 2019, it was

BJP                 55.3 (backed by SHS)
SHS rebel        41.2 (de facto backed by INC and NCP)

Given the state government is SHS-BJP one would expect BJP to hold on which it did.  But the vote share reduction is a problem.




Maharashtra's Kasba Peth (BJP MLA passed away)

INC                53.0 (backed by NCP and SHS(U))
BJP                45.1 (backed by SHS)

Back in 2019, it was

BJP                51.2 (backed by SHS)
INC                31.1 (backed by NCP)
SHS rebel         9.5
MNS                 5.6

This is the first time the BJP lost this seat since the 1980s.  A big upset victory by SHS(U)-INC-NCP alliance.




Tamil Nadu's Erode (East) (INC MLA passed away)

INC                64.6 (backed by DMK)
AIADMK          25.8 (backed by BJP PMK and AIADMK OPS faction) (EPS faction)
NTK                 6.4

back in 2021, it was

INC                44.3 (backed by DMK)
TMC(M)          38.4  (backed by AIADMK BJP PMK)
NTK                 7.7
MNM                7.0

MNM has since merged into INC.  This by-election has been a fiasco for the AIADMK bloc.  The AIADMK EPS faction nominated a candidate and the AIADMK OPS faction threatened to run its own candidate.  The BJP had to work to patch up a temporary truce between the two factions for this by-election which ended in a landslide for INC.  If the AIADMK civil war continues 2026 is looking pretty good for DMK-INC.




West Bengal's Sagardighi (AITC MLA passed away)

INC             47.4 (backed by Left Front)
AITC            34.9
BJP              13.9

Back in 2021, it was

AITC           51.4
BJP             24.3
INC             19.6 (backed by Left Front)

This seat has a significant number of Muslims who had swung from INC to AITC in 2021 to stop the BJP.  There was always a chance it could swing back but the scale of the swing from AITC and BJP to INC shows that this is not just the Muslim vote.  This district used to be an area of relieve INC strength which had seen its support bifurcate to AITC and BJP.  It seems now that there is a shift back to INC which is positive news for INC in this region in 2026 and bad news for both the ruling AITC and BJP.

[jaichind]

Some fun splintered Meghalaya results

Umsning 
INC               29.5
UDP              26.0
NPP               23.6
VPP               16.2
PDF                1.7
HSPDP            1.1
BJP                 1.0
AITC               0.9


Mylliem 
INC               28.9
VPP               28.8
NPP               28.3
UDP                8.5
Ind.                2.0
BJP                 1.4


Mawphlang 
UDP               21.5
PDF               21.2
INC               18.0
VPP               15.5
NPP               15.2
AITC               4.8
BJP                 3.8


Rambrai Jyrngam
INDP             26.8  (local party)
HSPDP           26.4
NPP               21.5
INC               17.2
AITC               4.6
BJP                 2.0

[jaichind]

Meghalaya results (very splintered) (only 59 out of 60 with the last seat almost certain to go to NPP)

                Contest     Won      Vote share
NPP               56          26           31.75%

NPP rebel                      0             0.71%

UDP               45         11            16.34%

BJP                59          2              9.40%

PDF                 9          2              1.90%

HSPDP           10          2              3.59%  (Khasi Hills-based)

VPP+             19          4              5.90%  (HSPDP splinter)

INC               59           5            13.25%

INC rebel        3           1              1.08%

AITC             55           5             13.89%

INDP               1          1              0.49% (district local party)

GNC+              3          0              0.76% (Garo Hills-based)

I got the dynamics of this election entirely wrong in all the regions.

Jaintia Hills: I expected the opposition to consolidate around UDP to defeat NPP.  Result: INC outperformed and allowed NPP to outperform

Khasi Hills: I expected the opposition to splinter allowing NPP to do well as it grabs the INC vote for itself.  Result: NPP grabbed some of the INC votes but so did UDP and with VPP and HSPDP outperforming NPP underperformed.

Garo Hills: I expected the old INC vote to mostly consolidate around AITC to give it an edge over NPP.  Result: NPP outperformed and AITC failed to capture enough of the INC base and as a result NPP outperformed.

[jaichind]

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/nitish-kumar-reconciliation-with-bjp-nda-rjd-jdu-rift-tejashwi-yadav-2342652-2023-03-04

"Nitish-BJP rapprochement on the cards? 5 times Bihar CM dropped signs of reconciliation"

Here we go again.  Now there are rumors that Nitish Kumar might return to BJP after dumping them back in August last year.  I am almost sure this is not true and that this story was put out there by Nitish Kumar's people to put pressure on RJD to back off on their demand for more power to be shifted to RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav.

[jaichind]

Nagaland results

A bunch of independents ran with the support of INC NPF and LJP(RV) which became some sort of common opposition candidates.  On the whole NDPP-BJP won a swing from 2018 but a landslide victory was prevented by seat by seat tactical consolidation of the opposition vote in most of the seats.

                    Contest       Won      Vote share       Vote share
                                                                     in seats contested
NDPP+            60              37          51.19%
 NDPP               40              25          32.32%           50.96%
 BJP                  20              12          18.87%           51.58%

NDPP rebels                       0             1.23%

NCP                12               7             9.59%             46.18%

NPP                 12              5             5.80%             28.75%

NPF                22               2             7.11%             18.38%
pro-NPF           2                1             1.20%             50.31%

LJP(RV)          16                2             8.67%             30.19%
pro-LJP(RV)      1               1              0.76%             51.29%

RPI(A)              8               2              3.70%             27.75%

JD(U)               7                1              3.26%            22.05%

INC               23                 0              3.56%             7.85%
pro-INC           2                 2              1.29%           46.54%

INC rebel                            0              0.21%

RJD                  3                0              0.50%             8.55%