India 2023 assembly elections

[jaichind]

One big unknown in the Nagaland assembly elections is if ENPOO will contest or if will they call for a boycott of the assembly elections.

https://www.eastmojo.com/nagaland/2023/01/17/positive-discussion-with-enpo-on-separate-state-demand-nagaland-cm/

"Positive discussion with ENPO on separate state demand: Nagaland CM "

EPNO is the main party that is pushing for the creation of the state of Frontier Nagaland


Easter Nagaland or Frontier Nagaland was on paper in British India but was never directly administered by the British Raj.  It was more of a buffer zone between British India and Burma and then after the British took over Burma just left there was no man's land.  Because of this Eastern Nagaland was always less developed than the rest of Nagaland.  Now there is a push to create Frontier Nagaland to ensure resources go to developing that area.

Frontier Nagaland did make a difference.  The turnout in Frontier Nagaland did not fall but there did seem to be an opposition consolidation in Frontier Nagaland in fact of a NDPP-BJP vote share surge.
             
                                             2023                                 2018
                                 Seats Won    Vote share           Seats Won    Vote share
Western Nagaland (40)
NDPP-BJP                         28             52.19%               20                42.60%
Frontier Nagaland (20)
NDPP-BJP                           9             49.06%                9                36.72%

Overall a good part of NPF local leaders and base went over to NDPP-BJP which triggered a positive swing toward NDPP-BJP relative to 2018.

NDPP-BJP won a greater swing in Frontier Nagaland than in Western Nagaland but failed to gain any seats.   It did seem that the issue of  Frontier Nagaland did make a difference in terms of holding back the seat out of NDPP-BJP.  Had it not been for the Frontier Nagaland issue then the anticipated NDPP-BJP would have taken place.

[jaichind]

So we had another election cycle where INC underperformed.  They avoid the worst-case scenario by gaining some vote share in Tripura and Nagaland but overall it was a defeat. 

But this cycle also continues the pattern of INC losing but former members of INC doing well.   Former INC tribal leader of Tripura Pradyot Bikram Kishore Manikya Deb Barma Bahadur's TIPRA did fairly well.  The newly re-elected BJP CM of Tripura Manik Saha was a member of INC.  Re-elected  NPP CM of Meghalaya Conrad Sangma was a member of INC.  Former INC CM of Meghalaya  Mukul Sangma underperformed but did put AITC on the map in Meghalaya at INC's expense.  The person that really ran the BJP campaign in the Northeast Assam BJP CM Himanta Biswa Sarma was a top INC leader in Assam.

The core issue here is not a lack of political talent in the INC but more because the INC leadership (the Gandhi clan) does not have their own mass base they become suspicious of local INC leaders that do and eventually do things to drive them away even if they do everything they can to obey orders from the Gandhi clan.  Their obedience is not enough, their independent base becomes a threat regardless of how loyal they try to be.

The BJP, on the other hand, has Modi who has his own mass base which mostly overlaps with the base of local BJP mass base leaders.  The main criterion is that you cannot use your mass base to act independently of Modi.  So here, former Karnataka BJP CM Yediyurappa and former Rajasthan BJP CM  Vasundhara Raje are problems that need to be "managed."  And BJP leaders that do not have their own base can always fall back on the Modi base to put a floor on election results.  This dynamic means that it is easier for BJP to attract and grow political talent than INC.  And that is on top of the money and resource advantages the BJP has.

This dynamic does point clearly to the likely answer to the question "After Modi, Who?" which is the modern version of the question back in the 1960s ("After Nehru, Who?").  The need for the top leader to have his own mass base so he is not threatened by those their own overlapping mass base points to UP BJP CM Yogi Adityanath as the more likely successor to Modi than Amit Shah who is more of a skilled strategist versus a mass leader.  I can see problems in the BJP 4-5 years from now with Yogi Adityanath and Amit Shah clashing for control and Yogi Adityanath's faction working to marginalize Modi to ensure succession.  The ego of Modi and Yogi Adityanath might be too big to handle a peaceful succession without proving a civil war.  The weaker INC is 4-5 years from now the more likely such a BJP civil war of succession will break out.

[jaichind]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/bjp-tripura-2024-lok-sabha-election-pradyot-manikya-tipra-motha-in-bjps-outreach-to-former-royals-party-in-tripura-a-2024-poll-plan-3843230

"In BJP's Outreach To Former Royal's Party In Tripura, A 2024 Poll Plan"

The thin BJP majority in Tripura does mean they need to beef up their numbers.  Plan A seems to be to buy off TIPRA.  This will not be cheap and the cost too high for BJP to pay unless they want to alienate their Bengali base in Tripura.

[OSR stands with Israel]

This dynamic does point clearly to the likely answer to the question "After Modi, Who?" which is the modern version of the question back in the 1960s ("After Nehru, Who?").  The need for the top leader to have his own mass base so he is not threatened by those their own overlapping mass base points to UP BJP CM Yogi Adityanath as the more likely successor to Modi than Amit Shah who is more of a skilled strategist versus a mass leader.  I can see problems in the BJP 4-5 years from now with Yogi Adityanath and Amit Shah clashing for control and Yogi Adityanath's faction working to marginalize Modi to ensure succession.  The ego of Modi and Yogi Adityanath might be too big to handle a peaceful succession without proving a civil war.  The weaker INC is 4-5 years from now the more likely such a BJP civil war of succession will break out.

Isn’t this the problem of trying to replace any seemingly transformative leader for parties . The Tories struggled greatly to replace Thatcher, the GOP struggled to fill Reagan’s shows and many republicans for decades from different wings tried to show they are the true heir to Reagan etc .

In general I think transformative leaders benefit from the fact that since they were the ones who brought their party to power and gave them more success then the party had seen in decades on both a policy and electoral front , they tend to be liked by all wings of the party . The successor though does not get the same benefit and divides that were covered up by the transformative leader gets exposed .

So I don’t think there is really much BJP can do about this as this seems inherent in many other nations in realigning states of their politics .

[jaichind]

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/nagaland-to-be-without-opposition-as-all-parties-say-they-back-govt-101678131522461.html

"Nagaland to be without opposition as all parties say they back govt"

It seems all MLAs in Nagaland will support the NDPP-BJP government.

[jaichind]

This dynamic does point clearly to the likely answer to the question "After Modi, Who?" which is the modern version of the question back in the 1960s ("After Nehru, Who?").  The need for the top leader to have his own mass base so he is not threatened by those their own overlapping mass base points to UP BJP CM Yogi Adityanath as the more likely successor to Modi than Amit Shah who is more of a skilled strategist versus a mass leader.  I can see problems in the BJP 4-5 years from now with Yogi Adityanath and Amit Shah clashing for control and Yogi Adityanath's faction working to marginalize Modi to ensure succession.  The ego of Modi and Yogi Adityanath might be too big to handle a peaceful succession without proving a civil war.  The weaker INC is 4-5 years from now the more likely such a BJP civil war of succession will break out.

Isn’t this the problem of trying to replace any seemingly transformative leader for parties . The Tories struggled greatly to replace Thatcher, the GOP struggled to fill Reagan’s shows and many republicans for decades from different wings tried to show they are the true heir to Reagan etc .

In general I think transformative leaders benefit from the fact that since they were the ones who brought their party to power and gave them more success then the party had seen in decades on both a policy and electoral front , they tend to be liked by all wings of the party . The successor though does not get the same benefit and divides that were covered up by the transformative leader gets exposed .

So I don’t think there is really much BJP can do about this as this seems inherent in many other nations in realigning states of their politics .

I would generally agree.  The BJP is lucky that they have someone like Yogi Adityanath that seems to have a solid chance of replciating the Modi system.

[OSR stands with Israel]

This dynamic does point clearly to the likely answer to the question "After Modi, Who?" which is the modern version of the question back in the 1960s ("After Nehru, Who?").  The need for the top leader to have his own mass base so he is not threatened by those their own overlapping mass base points to UP BJP CM Yogi Adityanath as the more likely successor to Modi than Amit Shah who is more of a skilled strategist versus a mass leader.  I can see problems in the BJP 4-5 years from now with Yogi Adityanath and Amit Shah clashing for control and Yogi Adityanath's faction working to marginalize Modi to ensure succession.  The ego of Modi and Yogi Adityanath might be too big to handle a peaceful succession without proving a civil war.  The weaker INC is 4-5 years from now the more likely such a BJP civil war of succession will break out.

Isn’t this the problem of trying to replace any seemingly transformative leader for parties . The Tories struggled greatly to replace Thatcher, the GOP struggled to fill Reagan’s shows and many republicans for decades from different wings tried to show they are the true heir to Reagan etc .

In general I think transformative leaders benefit from the fact that since they were the ones who brought their party to power and gave them more success then the party had seen in decades on both a policy and electoral front , they tend to be liked by all wings of the party . The successor though does not get the same benefit and divides that were covered up by the transformative leader gets exposed .

So I don’t think there is really much BJP can do about this as this seems inherent in many other nations in realigning states of their politics .

I would generally agree.  The BJP is lucky that they have someone like Yogi Adityanath that seems to have a solid chance of replciating the Modi system.

It seems like he sort of would be the Indira Gandhi analogy here then for the BJP

[jaichind]

Tripura 2023 result map
BJP - Orange
INC - Blue
TIPRA - Brown

 
2018 and 2013 results

[jaichind]

% of people between the ages of 15 and 29 are capable of sending emails that include attachments by state.  Clear negative bias in Hindi heartland states.
I suspect also this has partly to do with education for girls.  Rice growing South is much more open to education for girls than the wheat growing North.  This is not just income but overall culture.  Punjab's numbers makes it clear it is not only about income.

[jaichind]

2023 Nagaland results map
Orange = NDPP+BJP

 
 
2018

 

[jaichind]

Meghalaya 2023 results map


2018

[jaichind]

https://indianexpress.com/article/cities/mumbai/ncp-extends-support-to-ndpp-bjp-government-in-nagaland-8486508/

"NCP extends support to NDPP-BJP government in Nagaland"

NCP leader Sharad Pawar is taking a lot of heat for having the NCP support the NDPP-BJP government in Nagaland.  The reality is it cannot be helped.  Nagaland election costs are very high with a high level of vote buying.  All NCP MLAs must have incurred a lot of debt just to get elected.  All of them will be looking to recoup their investments.  If Sharad Pawar does not allow his Nagaland MLAs from backing the NDPP-BJP government and get a share of the loot they will be forced to defect en masse to NDPP-BJP.  Sharad Pawar chooses to compromise to try to keep his flock intact. 

The one JD(U) MLA choose to support the NDPP-BJP government and JD(U) dissolved its Nagaland unit which basically kicked its only one MLA out of the party.  But for him, it does not matter.  What is important is to get their hands on the loot to repay the debts the incurred during the election.

[jaichind]

https://theprint.in/india/meghalaya-assembly-elections-polling-postponed-in-sohiong-constituency-after-udp-candidates-demise/1387475/

"Meghalaya Assembly elections: Polling postponed in Sohiong constituency after UDP candidate’s demise"

In Meghalaya's Sohiong the UDP candidate passed away leading to a delay in voting in this district.

In 2018 the results here were

HSPDP     46.1 -> defected to NPP
INC         43.7 -> defected to UDP
PDF         10.3

This time around it will be NPP vs UDP in a re-run of the 2018 election.  The UDP candidate (who ran in 2018 as INC) passed away which clears the way for the NPP incumbent (elected in 2018 as HSPDP) to win for sure, especially when NPP will return as the largest party and holds the CM seat when the election does take place.

https://theshillongtimes.com/2023/03/02/hdr-lyngdohs-nephew-may-get-udp-ticket/

"HDR Lyngdoh’s nephew may get UDP ticket"

It seems UDP will most likely run the nephew of its deceased candidate (who ran for INC in 2018).  This means UDP will have the sympathy factor.  Still given the CM is NPP I cannot see how NPP will lose when voting does take place.

[jaichind]

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/congress-to-begin-distribution-of-guarantee-cards-in-poll-bound-karnataka-2344803-2023-03-10

"Congress to begin distribution of guarantee cards in poll-bound Karnataka"

INC in Karnataka will copy the 2020 AAP Delhi tactic of handing out guarantee cards.  In AAP's case in Delhi, it was guarantee cards for free power.  In Karnataka INC guarantee cards will be for

Rs 2,000 every month to a woman in each household, 200 units of free power to all houses, free 10 kg of rice per month to each Below Poverty Line (BPL) family member

[jaichind]

Pro-INC Lok Poll poll for Karnataka.
Calibration seems correct.  The BJP vote is much more efficient than INC so INC needs to win by 3%-4% or so in order to win.

[jaichind]

Modi roadshow in Karnataka

[jaichind]

UP BJP CM Yogi Adityanath will become the longest continuous serving CM of UP next week.  In terms of total years as CM, he is still behind Mayawati by around a year but in a year he will overtake her as the UP CM ever with the longest tenure.

[jaichind]

https://indianexpress.com/article/cities/chandigarh/waris-punjab-de-amritpal-singh-associates-detained-punjab-8504755/

"Waris Punjab De head Amritpal Singh untraceable, supporters allege police crackdown"

It looks like there is a Punjab police operation to crack down on radical Khalistan leader  Amritpal Singh with the internet being down in parts of Punjab.   It seems Amritpal Singh is on the run to evade the Punjab police.

This is funny because over in Pakistan Punjab, there seems to be a police action on the same day to arrest former Pakistan PM Imran Khan.

I wonder which Punjab police will win the race to capture their man.

[jaichind]

It seems radical Khalistan leader  Amritpal Singh managed to evade the Punjab police and is now on the run.  One of his supporters that are also escaping the police seems to be reporting from his getaway car.
https://twitter.com/NikhilCh_/status/1637009872314310657

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I guess that for now it is Khalistan 1, government 0.

[jaichind]

Punjab police announce the arrest of  radical Khalistan leader  Amritpal Singh

[jaichind]

Punjab police announce the arrest of  radical Khalistan leader  Amritpal Singh

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/khalistan-sympathiser-amritpal-singh-arrested-after-dramatic-chase-says-punjab-police-3872502

"Khalistan Sympathiser Amritpal Singh Arrested After Dramatic Chase"

It seems he was arrested after a dramatic chase.  Also, it seems India waited until the G20 summit was over before acting.

[jaichind]

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/aiadmk-bjp-alliance-tamil-nadu-elections-annamalai-remarks-closed-door-meeting-controversy-poaching-threat-2348496-2023-03-18

"AIADMK-BJP alliance heading towards split? New row erupts in Tamil Nadu"

It seems BJP might revert to its 2014 strategy of trying to form a third front outside of DMK and AIADMK.  I assume if EPS faction-dominated AIADMK-BJP alliance falls apart then the BJP will try to form an alliance of AIADMK(OPS faction), TTV/Sasikala-controlled AIADMK splinter AMMK, DMDK, and PMK.   BJP can lure DMDK and PMK to join their front by giving them more seats to contest than AIADMK(EPS) can.

If this is what takes place look for a DMK-INC landslide victory, again, in the 2024 LS elections in TN.

[jaichind]

https://www.deccanherald.com/election/karnataka/congress-clears-130-names-for-karnataka-assembly-elections-1201211.html

"Congress clears 130 names for Karnataka Assembly Elections"

This is a fairly positive signal for INC in Karnataka where they can come out with at least a partial list of candidates so early in the cycle.  This shows that factionalism in INC is under control in this cycle.

On the flip side

https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/editorials/bjp-in-karnataka-a-party-at-odds-with-itself-ahead-of-assembly-polls-8503982/

"BJP in Karnataka: A party at odds with itself ahead of assembly polls"

https://theprint.in/politics/chaos-infighting-bid-for-balance-bjps-big-yediyurappa-dilemma-in-karnataka/1452725/

"Chaos, infighting, bid for balance — BJP’s big Yediyurappa dilemma in Karnataka"

Factionalism in BJP is growing and difficult to contain, especially between pro-Yediyurappa and anti-Yediyurappa elements.

[jaichind]

https://www.deccanherald.com/opinion/second-edit/the-punjab-drama-is-dangerous-1202097.html

"The Punjab drama is dangerous"

It seems previous news of the arrest of radical Khalistan leader Amritpal Singh by the Punjab police is false.  He seems to be at large.  Internet in Punjab is still shut down as the police continue their manhunt.  Wow, Amritpal Singh must have sympathizers in the Punjab police to be able to hide out for so long.

Amritpal Singh's lawyers claim that the Punjab police in reality have arrested Amritpal Singh already and are waiting to stage an "encounter" with Amritpal Singh where he can be killed in order to avoid an explosive trial that merely rallies his supporters.