India 2023 assembly elections

[jaichind]

With chances high that INC will win a plurality in Karnataka plus JD(S) likely to be below 30 seats the chances are fairly high the next CM will be from the INC.  The basic idea is that JD(S) might claim the CM seat either with support from INC or BJP if the assembly is hung and JD(S) has more than 30 seats.  If JD(S) falls below 30 seats it will be hard for JD(S) to make a claim for the CM seat.

If INC is likely to produce the next CM the two top contenders are former INC CM Siddaramaiah and the current leader of INC in Karnataka D. K. Shivakumar.   My guess is that if INC wins a majority on its own it will most likely be   Siddaramaiah and if INC fails to win a majority and will need JD(S) support then it will be D. K. Shivakumar.   Siddaramaiah used to be a top leader in JD(S) and was a JD DCM in the mid to late 1990s and was DCM again in the INC-JD(S) government of 2004-2005.  JD(S) broke with INC to form a government with BJP in 2005  Siddaramaiah defected from JD(S) and eventually joined INC and became INC CM in 2013.  Because of this past  Siddaramaiah has a very hostile relationship with JD(S) and JD(S) would never back  Siddaramaiah to be CM.  So if INC failed to win a majority then D. K. Shivakumar, who was DCM in 2018-2019 in the JD(S)-INC government would most likely win JD(S) support to form a INC-JD(S) government post-election.

[jaichind]

Some  PoliticalBabba data on party support by the community over the last 3 Karnataka assembly elections mostly aligns with my stated biases between the different communities and partisan alignments.

[jaichind]

Eedina poll

They have INC with a solid majority and a large swing against BJP as well as JD(S)

[jaichind]

BJP always outperforms in Karnataka LS elections and underperforms in Karnataka assembly elections.
 The reason is that Vokkaligas, who are generally anti-INC, vote JD(S) in assembly elections and vote BJP in LS elections.   

The 2019 collapse of JD(S) with Vokkaligas votes has to do with the ill-fated INC-JD(S) alliance where some Vokkaligas voted INC as part of its alliance with JD(S) and the JD(S) candidate not running in some heavy Vokkaligas seats.

The good news for INC this year is that one of its top leaders and CM candidate D. K. Shivakumar is a Vokkaligas and could rope in Vokkaligas votes for INC this time.

[jaichind]

Pro-INC Democracy Times poll for Karnataka has INC with a narrow plurality with JD(S) outperforming.

[jaichind]

Despite the fact that Lingayats tend to vote for BJP and Vokkaliga tend to vote for JD(S), all 3 parties do nominate these two communities at a more significant number than their population given their relative concentration in critical seats and organisational power.  Only BJP has given up on the Muslim vote.  Other than that all 3 parties are courting the critical communities at roughly equal weight.

[jaichind]

https://www.deccanherald.com/election/karnataka/reddy-brothers-facing-existential-crisis-in-political-minefield-1213930.html

"Reddy brothers facing existential crisis in political minefield"

Potential bad news for BJP in Northern Karnataka as BJP splinter KRPP will be contesting in that region.  KRPP is controlled by one of the "Reddy Brothers" which are powerful economic and political kingpins in Northern Karnataka (and AP) mostly being associated with the mining industry.  

The Reddy Brothers are historically close to TDP in AP and BJP in Karnataka and have contested for BJP since the early 2000s.  They broke with BJP in 2013 and backed BJP splinter BSRCP which helped to sink BJP in the 2013 Karnataka assembly elections.   After 2013 they mostly went back to the BJP but this time they are raising the banner of revolt again with KRPP that will run across Northern Karnataka.

[jaichind]

Pro-INC Democracy Times poll for Karnataka has INC with a narrow plurality with JD(S) outperforming.

Their projection was seat-by-seat.  I compared their projection to mine back of the envelope candidate quality adjusted guess and found that out of 224 seats we agree on 180 and disagree on 44.

[jaichind]

Latest C-Voter poll for Karnataka

            Seat    Vote share
INC       113         40%
BJP         80         35%
JD(S)      29         17%
Others     2

Relative to the march poll, BJP seems to have gained a bit of vote share from both INC and JD(S) and pushes INC to the brink of losing the majority.

[jaichind]

Anti-BJP lean Ground Zero poll for Karnataka has a clear INC vote share lead of a size that should give INC a majority







What is bad for BJP is 68% agreed that BJP ran a "40% government" (kickback commissions are 40% versus the old claim that the INC ran a "10% government")

[jaichind]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/sharad-pawar-says-he-has-decided-to-step-down-as-ncp-president-3997360

"Sharad Pawar Quits As NCP Chief Amid Speculation Over Nephew Ajit Pawar"

In a shock move, NCP founder and leader Sharad Pawar quits as NCP leader but not from public life as he is still a RS MP.  Many say this has to do with recent rumors that his  Ajit Pawar and former DCM could go over to BJP with a bloc of NCP MLAs.  Just yesterday  Ajit Pawar gave a speech attacking the SHS-BJP government.

Theories are
a)  Sharad Pawar  accepts Ajit Pawar going over to side with BJP with a bloc of NCP MLAs and resigns as leader to make it easier for Ajit Pawar to do this since it will not involve rebelling against his own uncle

OR

b) Sharad Pawar and Ajit Pawar made a deal for Ajit Pawar to drop plans of any defection to the BJP and instead Sharad Pawar will step down making way for Ajit Pawar to take over NCP.

We will see which of a) or b) it is.

[jaichind]

Ajit Pawar on  Sharad Pawar stepping down as NCP leader.

"He is thinking about giving leadership of the party to new person. Ultimately, the party will work under Sharad Pawar. Whoever be the new leader, he will always work under Pawar saheb. Let's not be emotional about all this. I just spoke to Kaki (wife of Sharad Pawar). She told me that he will not change his decision. Don't get drown into emotions. Ultimately, new president will work under guidance of Sharad Pawar. The party will work under him and him only"

In the meantime, NCP party workers and leaders have broken down an are in tears with all trying to talk  Sharad Pawar into changing his mind.   

Perhaps this is a  Sharad Pawar move to show Ajit Pawar his hold on NCP and that any thought of defection will leave Ajit Pawar with nothing.

[jaichind]

Lokniti CSDS NDTV opinion poll on Karnataka.  They do not have topline numbers yet but what they have released is not so great for BJP nor JD(S)

Vokkaligas INC 34%  JD(S) 36%
Lingayats   BJP  67% 
Muslims     INC 59% 
Poor          INC 50% BJP 23%
Rich           BJP 46% INC 31%

BJP keeps Lingayats vote but INC eats into  Vokkaligas against JD(S)

which is more corrupt               INC  35%   BJP 59%
            more nepotistic            INC 30%    BJP 59% 
            more faction-ridden     INC  30%    BJP 55%
            best for development   INC  47%    BJP 37%

Party perception is very negative for BJP vis-a-vis INC

[jaichind]

Lokniti CSDS NDTV opinion poll on best Karnataka CM

Former INC CM Siddaramaiah                      40
Current BJP CM Bommai                              22
Former JD(S) CM Kumaraswamy                  15
Former BJP CM Yediyurappa                          5
Current INC Karnataka leader Shivakumar      4

Adding them up by party gets

INC            44
BJP             27
JD(S)         15

These are very bad numbers for sitting CM

[jaichind]

Karnataka party manifestos

BJP: Uniform Civil Code, all sorts of free stuff (focus on food, healthcare, energy)
INC: Ban Hindu extremist groups, all sorts of free stuff (focus on pension, food, energy)
JD(S): Restore Mulsim reservation, all sorts of free stuff (focus on women, farmers, energy)

So it will be free stuff vs free stuff vs free stuff

[jaichind]

Some India Karnataka BJP and INC uniform swing analysis






What these charts say are
a) JD(S) is very sensitive to INC swings but not very sensitive to BJP swings
b) JD(S) does not gain as much from INC if is a swing against INC as it would lose to INC if there is a swing toward INC

Of course, this just says what I have been saying all along
a) There are a bunch INC-BJP seats, a bunch INC-JD(S) seats and some 3 way marginals but very few BJP-JD(S) seats
b) JD(S) outperformed in 2018 and won a lot of INC-JD(S) marginals making them vulnerable to INC gains if there is a swing toward INC.

Given the fact that INC is likely to get a positive swing this time around it is unlikely JD(S) crosses 30 seats this time to the benefit of INC.

[jaichind]

New Jan Ki Baat poll for Karnataka.  Slight BJP bump relative to the previous poll at the expense of JD(S)

[jaichind]

What would LS distribution look like after the planned 2026 LS delimitation if you have a rule that no state will lose any seats

Massive gains for non-Upper Caste Hindi heartland states.  A decline in influence in the South
 

This will shift more power to the poorer North which is certain to use their new political power to shift resources from the richer non-Hindi South toward the Hindi North

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What would LS distribution look like after the planned 2026 LS delimitation if you have a rule that no state will lose any seats

Massive gains for non-Upper Caste Hindi heartland states.  A decline in influence in the South
 

This will shift more power to the poorer North which is certain to use their new political power to shift resources from the richer non-Hindi South toward the Hindi North

What would the numbers look like if the seat number stayed the same?

[jaichind]

What would the numbers look like if the seat number stayed the same?

Something like this

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What would the numbers look like if the seat number stayed the same?

Something like this

At some point, it seems there will have to be a redistricting. And the impact on places like Kerala will be utterly brutal. It will make the impact on rural America of the 1930s round of redistricting (there was no changes in the 1920s, they were cancelled) look like a picnic.

[jaichind]

BJP central government invokes Article 355 on its own Manipur government and takes over security for the state given the recent violence there




The violence is, as usual, tribal conflict over ST quotas.  The basic idea is that due to a lack of industrial development, there is significant underemployment.  Everyone wants the stability of a government job.  But by the Indian Constitution enshrining quotas/reservation/affirmative action for college admissions and government jobs they opened up an economic process into a political process.  This just means different groups turn to political, including violence, methods to achieve economic goals.

[jaichind]

The Manipur riots are about tribal quotas which control government jobs and land right between the  Meitei people (Hindu tribals) in the valley and the tribal in the hills (mostly Christian.)

The perception of the ruling BJP as being more Meitei oriented since the 2022 assembly elections is a factor

Number of BJP seats from each region (40 Meitei and 20 Hill tribal overall)
                 2017                2022
Meitei           16                   25
Hill Tribal        5                    7

In 2022 Meitei areas there was a swing from INC to BJP while in Hill tribal areas there was a swing from INC to tribal parties (NPP, KPP, NPF).  In 2017 INC was the Meitei party.  By 2022 the BJP was the Meitei party.

The result is that the Hill Tribals increasingly feel that the ruling BJP will go with the Meitei in any conflict so they are resorting to violence.

Manipur 2022 results


Manipur 2019 LS assembly segment results


Manipur 2017 results

[jaichind]

Karnataka TV-5 has a significant INC lead.





To be fair there are other polls out there that have a slight BJP lead.

Most polls out there are either

a) Small INC vote share lead, slight BJP seat lead

OR

b) Large INC vote share lead, INC majority

All of them do have JD(S) not doing well

[jaichind]

Pro-BJP film "The Kerala Story" is officially released today.

The film is about a bunch of Kerala Hindu women that were converted to Islam under "Love Jihad" (married to a Muslim man who then converted their new wife to Islam) and then shipped off to Syria to be a part of ISIS.  In theory, this is based on a real story but many on the Center-Left in India seem to dispute this.  One thing is for sure, even if this is true clearly this is something that is very rare.