India 2023 assembly elections

[jaichind]

India 2023 assembly elections

March - Tripura, Nagaland, Meghalaya
May - Karnataka
Dec - MP, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, Mizoram

J&K could be in 2023 but it could end up being in 2024

[jaichind]

Tripura -  BJP vs Left Front-INC in Bengali areas (around 40 seats) BJP-IPFP vs TIPRA in tribal areas (around 20 seats).  BJP might end up giving up on the tribal seats given how strong TIPRA is getting there and try to run as a Bengali party by sweeping the Bengali seats

Nagaland - NDPP-BJP should sweep NPF.  Would be interesting to see if NPF will try to get INC and JD(U) to join them in an opposition alliance

Meghalaya - NPP will likely win with the anti-NPP vote split between BJP, INC-NCP-GNC, UDP, and AITC.  The INC vote used to be strong enough to stand up to NPP, but with most of the INC MLAs going to AITC, the INC vote base will likely be split between INC and AITC.  BJP could end up being a bigger threat to NPP.

Karnataka - BJP vs INC vs JD(S).  INC most likely will win.  Both BJP and INC are internally split.

MP - BJP might drop CM Chouhan to avoid anti-incumbency.  INC has a shot at winning

Rajasthan - Both INC and BJP are internally split.  The default result would be a landslide BJP victory but the scale of the BJP victory will depend on how united INC is relative to BJP.

Chhattisgarh - Not much anti-incumbency but the ruling  INC is bitterly divided which means that the BJP has a good chance of winning.

Telangana - TRS vs INC in rural areas and TRS vs BJP in urban areas.  TRS still has the best shot at winning running as the regionalist party.

Mizoram - Ruling MNF will most likely win.  The main challenge will be ZPM.  INC imploding here its support going to BJP.  Neither is likely to break MNF.

[jaichind]

Of the 3 NE states up for elections in March Tripura has to be the most interesting.

Tripura was formed in 1972 when it was carved out of Assam.  Tripura historically was tribal but due to waves of migration from Bengal became majority Bengali although in terms of land mass most of Tripura are tribal area.  

The map of the Tripura Tribal Areas Autonomous District Council (TTAADC) which was created in 1979 shows the tribal areas vs the Bengali areas.  Of course, note that around 40 out of 60 seats are Bengali seats while around 20 out of 60 seats are tribal which means Bengalis are concentrated in the Western slice of Tripura.


The continued rise of the Bengali population has led to a call for an independent tribal Tripaland so politics in tribal areas are very different from the Bengali areas.

In the 1972 Tripura assembly elections INC defeated CPM to win power.  Since Tripura was majority Bengali politics here mimics WB where INC and CPM are strong during this period.  

The 1977 LS election swept INC out of power although INC did reasonably well in Tripura splitting it 1-1 with JNP.

1977 Tripura LS elections

               Contest       Win          Vote share
CPM             2               0               34.09%

INC             2                1               39.74%

CPI               1               0                 2.24%

JNP              1               1               17.83%

TUJS           2                0                 6.11%  (Tribal)

After the fall of the INC government at the center, the Tripraa INC government fell with most of its MLAs defecting to the Tripura branch of the anti-Indira Gandhi INC splinter Congress for Democracy (TSCD) and a TSCD government was formed.  Tripura was one of the states where the JNP-Congress for Democracy failed to take place after the 1977 LS elections.  After a few months, the TSCD government fell when a faction defected to JNP and formed a JNP-Left Front government.

With the 1977 assembly election approaching just like in WB, the Left Front wanted to run in an alliance with JNP who turned it down.  The result was a massive Left Front win just in WB with the anti-Left Front vote split between INC TSCD and JNP.

1977 Tripura assembly elections

               Contest       Win          Vote share
CPM+         60            56              52.02% (RSP AIFB was part of CPM+)

INC            60             0               17.76%

INC rebels                   0                0.56%

CPI           10              0                0.84%

TSCD        59              0                8.92%

JNP           59              0              10.46%

TUJS         28              4                7.93%  (tribal)

JNP and TUJS's failure to unite meant that both pretty much disappeared from Tripura politics as the Left Front took over the state government and INC emerged as the main opposition to Left Front.  The Left Front government created the Tripura Tribal Areas Autonomous District Council (TTAADC) in 1979 as a way to cut into the tribal vote to counter the tribal-based TUJS.

The 1980 LS elections saw the return of INC at the national level but in Tripura, the Left Front-dominated state government was able to assume a sweep for CPM.  This will become a trend with the state ruling party often being able to ensure victory in the LS elections under its watch.  Despite the CPM victory, the rising TUJS vote shows the growing power of tribal politics.

1980 Tripura LS elections

               Contest       Win          Vote share
CPM             2              2              47.50%

INC             2               0              22.61%

INC rebel     1               0              12.32%

TUJS           2               0              13.48%

[jaichind]

After the 1977 assembly elections, CPI was let back into the Left Front.  In the meantime, after the 1980 LS elections, the INC formed an alliance with the tribal TUJS to take down the Nripen Chakraborty-led Left Front government in 1983.  They most consolidated the anti-Left Front vote but fell short partly because of the large number of INC rebels in the fray.

1983 Tripura assembly elections

               Contest       Win          Vote share
CPM+         60            39              49.95% (RSP AIFB CPI was part of CPM+)   

INC+          60            19              41.85% (tribal TUJS was part of INC+)

INC rebels                    2               6.45%

The Left Front victory also mean that CPM won the 1984 LS elections despite a massive post-Indira Gandhi assassination INC wave in the rest of India.  INC came close but the power of the Left Front state government meant that CPM wins

1984 Tripura LS elections

               Contest       Win          Vote share
CPM             2              2               50.47%

INC              2              0               45.61%


In the runup to the 1988 assembly elections anti-incumbency was finally catching up to the Left Front government.  Insurgency in the tribal areas also lowered the prestige of to Left Front government. As a result, INC-TUJS was able to completely consolidate the anti-Left Front vote with INC rebels playing a very minor role and narrowly defeating the Left Front government despite losing the popular vote.
 
1988 Tripura assembly elections

               Contest       Win          Vote share
CPM+         60            28              49.68% (RSP AIFB CPI was part of CPM+)   

INC+          60            32              47.86% (tribal TUJS was part of INC+)

INC rebels                    0                0.89%


As a result, an INC-TUJS government was installed.   The 1989 LS elections saw INC defeated in Northern India but INC won in Tripura due to the influence of the Tripura state government.

1989 Tripura LS elections

               Contest       Win          Vote share
CPM             2              0               41.72%

INC              2              2               55.50%

AB               2               0                1.09% (Bengali regionalist)


In the run-up to the 1991 LS elections, Rajiv Gandhi was assassinated.  This led to INC works launching massive riots in Tripura which with the protection of the INC-led Tripura state government stood by and watched INC riots destroy the property of Left Fron supporters.  As a result, many Left Front voters failed to vote in the 1991 LS elections and INC won by massive margins.  Bengali regionalist AB and BJP good a respectable vote share due to them getting some of the anti-INC votes that managed to turn out.

1991 Tripura LS elections

               Contest       Win          Vote share
CPM             2              0                6.54%

INC              2              2              82.83%

AB               2              0                3.03% (Bengali regionalist)

BJP              2              0                2.99%

The BJP surge in the rest of India in 1991 did register a bit in Tripura but going forward BJP will become a minor force in Tripura as opposed to the 1980s when it was nowhere.  But BJP will continue to be at the margins of Tripura politics for a while.

[jaichind]

There were political consequences to the 1991 INC-led riots during the LS elections and as a result in 1993 Left Front came back and defeated INC-TUJS.  INC rebels, a slowly rising BJP, and the Bengali regional AB all ate into the INC-TUJS vote.  Left Front gained a lot in tribal areas and nearly wiped out TUJS.

1993 Tripura assembly elections

               Contest       Win          Vote share
CPM+         60            49              51.60% (RSP AIFB CPI JD(B) was part of CPM+)   

INC+         60             11              40.25% (TUJS was part of INC+)

INC rebels                    0                2.57%

AB            42               0                 1.46% (Bengali regionalist)

BJP           38               0                 2.02%


As expected the 1996 LS election went in favor of the Left Front given that they controlled the state government.   In order to regain tribal support TUJS ran separately from INC which along with a slowly rising BJP ate into the INC vote.

1996 Tripura LS elections

               Contest       Win          Vote share
CPM             2              2               52.41%

INC              2              0               34.13%

TUJS            2              0                 4.06%

AB               2               0                1.21%  (Bengali regionalist)

BJP              2              0                 6.50%


The midterm 1998 LS election saw more of the same other than BJP continuing to rise based on the popularity of BJP leader Vajpayee as well as TUJS reforming their alliance with INC.   The rising BJP did seem to eat into the anti-INC vote from CPM.

1998 Tripura LS elections

               Contest       Win          Vote share
CPM             2              2               48.80%

INC              2              0               42.12%

BJP              2              0                 8.19%

[jaichind]

The 1998 Tripura assembly elections returned the Left Front to power with a slightly reduced majority.  The BJP continued their slow ascent.

1998 Tripura assembly elections

               Contest       Win          Vote share
CPM+         60            41              49.07% (RSP AIFB CPI was part of CPM+)   

INC+         60             18              43.26% (TUJS was part of INC+)

INC rebel                      1               0.90%

BJP            60               0               5.87%

Manik Sarkar was made the Left Front CM of Tripura, a position he will hold for 20 years.

The 1999 LS election saw BJP ally with the newly created WB INC splinter AITC.  AITC being a Bengali-based party was able to project itself along with the BJP as the leading national alternative to the Left Front in Tripura and was able to ride the Vajpayee wave to a significant vote share.

1999 Tripura LS elections

               Contest       Win          Vote share
CPM             2              2               56.24%

INC              2              0               13.88%

BJP+            2              0               27.28% (AITC was part of BJP+)

[jaichind]

In 2002 a bunch of Tripraland tribal extremist groups gave up their arms and merged with TUJS to form INPT.  INPT continued their alliance with INC for the 2003 Tripura assembly elections which was once again a Left Front victory.  BJP-AITC alliance continued but faired far worse than the 1999 LS elections.  At the state level, BJP is actually losing ground.

2003 Tripura assembly elections

               Contest       Win          Vote share
CPM+         60            41              50.90% (RSP AIFB CPI was part of CPM+)   

INC+         60             19              45.29% (INPT was part of INC+)

BJP+         39              0                 1.75% (AITC was part of BJP+)

2004 LS elections saw a Left Front surge in WB which was also replicated in Tripura

2004 Tripura LS elections

               Contest       Win          Vote share
CPM             2              2               68.80%

INC              2              0               14.28%

BJP+            2              0               12.90% (AITC was part of BJP+)

The reduction of tribal insurgency due to the integration of Tripaland extremists paid dividends for the Left Front in tribal areas with better law and order in tribal areas.  In the 2005 TTAAADC elections the Left Front crushed INPT and the 2008 Tripura assembly elections saw a swing toward the Left Front in tribal areas even though AIFB dropped out of the Left Front alliance and ran on its own.  The BJP ended its alliance with AITC since in WB AITC was clearly migrating toward INC but remained a minor player in state-level politics.

2008 Tripura assembly elections

               Contest       Win          Vote share
CPM+         60            49              51.18% (RSP CPI was part of CPM+)   

INC+          60            11              43.16% (INPT was part of INC+)

INC rebel                     0                1.40%

BJP            49             0                 1.49%

With the end of the BJP-AITC alliance and Vajpayee no longer on the scene, the INC recapture the position of the main opposition to the Left Front in the LS elections in 2009.   The INC was able to recapture some lost ground to the Left Front in 2004.

2009 Tripura LS elections

               Contest       Win          Vote share
CPM             2              2               61.69%

INC              2              0               30.75%

BJP              2              0                 3.38%

[jaichind]

2013 Tripura assembly elections were very much like 2008.  INPT splinter IPFT running separately just made the situation in tribal areas even worse for INC-INPT with a 19-1 sweep by the Left front there.  AIFB returns to Left Front,

2013 Tripura assembly elections

               Contest       Win          Vote share
CPM+         60            50              52.32% (RSP CPI AIFB was part of CPM+)  

INC+          60            10              44.12% (INPT was part of INC+)

INC rebel                     0                0.53%

IPFT          17               0                0.46%

BJP            50             0                 1.54%


2014 LS elections saw an anti-INC wave and in Tripura, that mean a swing toward Left Front even as the BJP made large gains elsewhere in India.  AITC made a big push in the states close to WB and ate up some of the anti-Left Front votes

2014 Tripura LS elections

               Contest       Win          Vote share
CPM             2              2               64.77%

INC              2              0               15.38%

AITC           2               0                 9.74%

IPFT            2               0                1.07%

BJP              2              0                 5.77%


BJP coming to power at the federal level in 2014 created massive shifts in party alignment in Tripura.  BJP, along with the power of federal subsidies, managed to get a large number of the INC leaders and base to come over to the BJP in a massive push to oust the Left Front after the Left Front won 5 assembly elections in a row.  BJP also roped in IPFT to add to its appeal in tribal areas.  The result was a complete collapse of the INC-INPT vote toward BJP-IPFT with a moderate swing against the Left Front in Bengali areas and a massive swing against the Left Front in tribal areas to produce a BJP-IPFT victory.  INPT ran separately to try to save itself in tribal areas to no avail.

2018 Tripura assembly elections

               Contest       Win          Vote share
CPM+         60            16              44.81% (RSP CPI AIFB was part of CPM+)

INC            59              0               1.81%

INPT          15               0               0.73%

BJP+          60           44              51.49% (IPFT was part of BJP+)

BJP-IPFT shocking victory ended the 20-year reign of Left Front CM Manik Sarkar.  Although most of the BJP MLAs have INC backgrounds the BJP chose Biplab Kumar Deb who has a BJP background to be the new CM.  Biplab Kumar Deb is the son of East Pakistan Bengali Hindu refugees.  This background clearly does not play well with tribal areas.  This will become a problem in the future.

The 2019 LS elections saw the usual pattern that the state ruling party sweep the LS elections which the BJP did despite IPFT running separately to try to retain its tribal base.  INC gained ground from the Left Front as INC is now seen as the alternative at the national level to the BJP.

2019 Tripura LS elections

               Contest       Win          Vote share
CPM             2              0               17.50%

INC              2              0               25.62%

BJP              2              2               49.56%

IPFT            2               0                 4.20%

[jaichind]

The Tripura 2013 to 2018 swing with the collapse of INC-INPT and surge of BJP-IPFT was amazing but BJP-IPFT would not have won if it was not for a swing against Left Front.  That swing is especially large in tribal areas as demonstrated by the chart below.

                                      2013                                2018
                               Left      INC-INPT             Left      BJP-IPFT
Bengali seats (40)     31              9                  14            26
Tribal seats (20)        19              1                    2            18


(Note that in North Tripura CPM flipped a 2013 INC seat which is heavy Muslim)

We went from 2013 when Left Front had a near wipeout of INC-INPT in tribal areas to it facing a near wipeout in 2018 at the hands of BJP-IPFT.  In Bengali seats INC was competitive with Left Front just like in 2018 Left Front was competitive with BJP.

If you remove the 1 tribal seat election that was held after the 2018 elections due to the death of the CPM candidate and the CPM did not really contest the 2013 to 2018 swing against the Left Front in tribal seats was -11.2%.  Likewise, if you remove the 2 Muslim dominated seats in Bengali areas (there was a swing toward the Left Front in those areas as pro-INC Mulsim voters shifted to Left Front to stop BJP) the swing against the Left Front in Bengali seats was -6.1%.

This is very relevant because after the 2019 LS elections there was a split in the INC where its tribal branch split and created TIPRA.  TIPRA quickly caught fire since it was not aligned with either BJP or INC and became an advocate for the creation of Triprland.  The BJP was pushing CAA which could increase Hindu Bengali immigrants from Bangladesh to Tripura.  Riding this wave TIPRA who formed an alliance with INPT won a surprising victory over BJP-IPFT in the 2021 TTAADC elections with the Left Front vote in tribal areas completely collapsing. So between 2015 to 2021 in tribal areas, BJP became the new INC and TIPRA became the new Left Front.  After its victory, INPT merged into TIPRA.



In the 2023 Tripura assembly elections, it will become TIPRA vs BJP-IPFT in tribal areas and it is expected that TIPRA will win most of the assembly seats.   Worse many IPFT MLAs see the writing on the wall and have defected to TIPRA.  This means the BJP will have to sweep Bengali seats in order to form a majority.  In the meantime, BJP CM Biplab Kumar Deb was running into problems trying to control his MLA most of which have an INC background.  This means If Left Front and INC form an alliance in Bengali seats BJP sweeping Bengali seats might be hard to do.  

In May 2023 BJP installed Manik Saha who has an INC background as CM in order to try to keep their MLAs disciplined to face the 2023 assembly election.  Because of all this, it seems that BJP-IPFT winning a majority now seems difficult.  Although TIPRA is likely to sweep tribal seats it is also unlikely Left Front-INC can get a majority either.  And it is not a done deal that Left Front and INC can form an alliance without major rebellions.

[jaichind]

More India in Pixels maps on income/capita by district

Odisha


MP


Note MP map correlates well with river valleys having higher income

[jaichind]

I do not know what Modi is talking about.  There are no COVID protocols in India as far as I know.

[jaichind]

https://www.deccanherald.com/national/national-politics/war-of-words-between-congress-and-bjp-over-rahuls-visit-to-vajpayees-memorial-1175278.html

"War of words between Congress and BJP over Rahul's visit to Vajpayee's memorial"

Rahul Gandhi pays homage to former BJP PM Vajpayee.  He seems to be using the BJP trick of talking up former INC PM Lal Bahadur Shastri and Narasimha Rao as well as INC DPM Sadar Patel since all of them was at odds with the Nehru-Gandhi clan as a way to get marginal INC votes.  It was clear that Vajpayee did not get along well with Modi and wanted to dismiss Modi as Gujarat's CM after the 2002 riots.  Vajpayee was only stopped by DPM  Advani.  Rahul Gandhi seems to want to try to target marginal/liberal BJP voters with this move.

[jaichind]

https://www.livemint.com/news/india/cabinet-approves-distribution-of-free-food-grain-till-december-2023-11671808007199.html

"Cabinet approves distribution of free gain till December 2023"

I am surprised this is not getting much media coverage.  There are a bunch of things going on here that restructure the free grain/subsidized grain for low-income Indians.  The changes have the net following effect

a) A program that gives free grain to low-income Indians that are controlled by the state government is being removed.
b) A program that provides subsidized grain for low-income Indians that is controlled by the federal government is being expanded and will now provide free grain.
c) India had a bumper harvest in 2020 but not such a great harvest in 2021 and its surplus grain is running out so there is a need to conserve free/subsidized  grain
d) There is a reduce conserve free/subsidized grain also to encourage people that take handouts to enter the labor force

The key change is more about a) and b).  This ensures that Modi will be able to claim credit for any free grain given to low-income Indians and not the state government.  The purpose is to undercut non-BJP state governments next time they are up for re-election by pitting them against Modi who can claim credit for giving out free grain to low-income voters.

[jaichind]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/nagpur/maharashtra-assembly-passes-resolution-on-border-row-with-karnataka/articleshow/96539240.cms

"Maharashtra assembly passes resolution on border row with Karnataka"

The old Maharashtra-Karnataka border dispute over control of Belgaum is heating up again with escalations on both sides.  Belgaum seems to have a slight plurality of Maratha speakers but was given to Karnataka (Mysore) for historical factors.  Has been a border dispute since 1960.  This is especially tricky for the BJP since the BJP is in power in both states.


It is really BSHS CM Shinde that is provoking the latest round of conflict since he is trying to use this issue to marginalize SHS(U). One of the issues that catapulted Bal Thackeray and his SHS to become a power in Maharashtra in the late 1960s was the  Belgaum issue.  BSHS CM Shinde now want to use this issue to try to take over the mantel of the Bal Thackeray from the Thackeray clan be viewed as the true SHS before the upcoming delayed 2023  Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation election where it will be a battle to the death between BSHS and SHS(U).

[jaichind]

https://www.thestatesman.com/india/another-bjp-mla-resigns-from-tripura-assembly-1503141782.html

"Another BJP MLA resigns from Tripura Assembly"

Another BJP MLA resigns from BJP in Tripura. This is a MLA from a tribal seat.  He ran in 2013 as INC and lost to CPM then defected to BJP in 2018 and won in the BJP-IPFT wave in tribal areas.  It seems he will return to INC.  I am not sure this is a wise move.  I agreed that TIPRA is likely to sweep the tribal seats but he is much more likely to win as the BJP candidate than as the INC candidate.   Perhaps he figured he was going to get dropped anyway as part of BJP's plans to mitigate anti-incumbency?  Perhaps Left Front-INC is not dead in tribal areas and it will become a 3-way battle there?

[jaichind]

In Tripura, since last year 5 out of 36 BJP MLAs have resigned/defected while 3 out of 8 IPFT MLAs have resigned/defected.

[jaichind]

It seems 2022 will end with the following breakdown for RS

NDA          110 (BJP 92) (includes 6 pro-BJP nominated MPs)
pro-NDA     19 (BJD YRSCP SDF)
UPA            64 (INC 31) (includes JD(U) RJD and SHS(U))
anti-NDA     46 (SP BRS AITC AAP TDP)

6 vacant (4 in J&K and 2 nominated)

Note TDP and YRSCP might flip places between now and 2024

NDA was getting close to getting a majority on its own due to BJP over performance in assembly election as well as getting assembly defections but JD(U) defection from NDA to UPA dragged them back below majority mark.

I made some assumptions on how the various assemblies elections will turn out and I cam up with the current projections for RS at the end of 2023 2024 2025 2026 and 2027.

             NDA(BJP)   pro-NDA    UPA(INC)   anti-NDA
2022       110(92)       19           64(31)        46  
2023       116(96)       19           63(30)        47
2024       116(95)       22           62(31)        45
2025       115(95)       22           63(31)        45
2026       119(100)     19           63(33)        44
2027       118(99)       19           65(35)        43

BJP will continue to outperform in assembly elections in 2023 especially in Rajasthan and Telangana which will more than makeup for likely losses in Karnataka. It is also reasonable for BJP to make gains in Jharkhand in 2024 and Bihar in 2025 all of which will drive BJP gains in RS in 2026.

These trends tells one story.  Anti-BJP forces are better off losing 2024 LS elections since a non-BJP government at the center  will be hampered by a clear pro-NDA majority.   The anti-BJP forces are better off losing 2024 LS elections and focusing on doing well in the 2026-2028 assembly elections based on anti-incumbency energy against the BJP to build up a anti-BJP majority in RS over time which will coincide with a non-BJP government in 2029.

[jaichind]

https://www.deccanherald.com/national/south/chandrababu-naidu-re-enters-telangana-to-revive-tdp-as-kcr-aspires-national-role-with-brs-1175041.html

"Chandrababu Naidu re-enters Telangana to revive TDP as KCR aspires national role with BRS"

TDP totally flopped in Telangana in the 2018 assembly elections with an alliance with INC and then mostly disappeared from Telangana politics looks set to return.  With INC imploding TDP is looking to try to break back into Telangana state politics to be an alternative to BRS (formerly TRS.)  TRS of course was a TDP splinter but since 2001 has slowly eaten up the TDP vote base here.  TDP seems to want to rebuild a base here and then leverage that perhaps with an alliance with BJP and/or JSP.

A good part of the BJP vote shifted to TRS in 2018 to defeat INC but will now be coming back to BJP as INC wanes.  I still think it is going to be BRS vs INC in rural areas and BRS vs BJP in urban areas.  If the INC implosion continues I can see the BJP-TDP alliance also becoming the main opponent to BRS in rural areas as well.

[jaichind]

https://www.deccanherald.com/amp/national/pm-narendra-modis-mother-passes-away-aged-100-1176398.html

"PM Narendra Modi's mother passes away aged 100"

[jaichind]

https://indianexpress.com/article/political-pulse/congress-bjp-rajasthan-2023-ashok-gehlot-vasundhara-raje-8352105/



"More than Congress, BJP, Rajasthan 2023 will be about Ashok Gehlot, Vasundhara Raje"

The article points out that the current leaders of both IN and BJP in Rajasthan are fighting their own internal civil war while heading toward leading their respective parties against each other in late 2023.

[jaichind]

https://indianexpress.com/article/political-pulse/tensions-mva-in-open-ajit-pawar-kept-out-opp-move-against-speaker-8353718/

"Tensions within MVA in open, Ajit Pawar kept out of Opposition move against Speaker"

Possible future split in NCP.  In 2019  Ajit Pawar already tried to split the NCP and try to form a government with BJP which failed.  Ajit Pawar, of course, continued his role as permanent DCM (Ajit Pawar managed to be DCM for an INC CM in 2012-2014, for a BJP CM for a few days in 2019, and for a SHS CM 2019-2022)  until the SHS-NCP-INC government was overthrown in the Summer of 2022.

It is possible with Ajit Pawar being more friendly again with BJP DCM Devendra Fadnavis and not trusted by INC and SHS(U) he could end up splitting NCP and taking his faction of NCP over to BJP-BSHS.    If that were to take place then in Maharastra both BJP and INC will each have a NCP and SHS ally.  BJP's SHS would be BSHS while INC's SHS is SHS(U) while BJP's NCP would be NCP(Ajit Pawar) and INC's NCP would be NCP(Sharad Pawar).  Although to be fair I think the Ajit Pawar split is more likely to take place after Sharad Pawar retires or passes on.

[jaichind]

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/up-court-orders-survey-of-mathura-mosque-complex-101671906065096.html

"UP court orders survey of Mathura mosque complex"

Here we go again.  Now that the Ayodhya dispute is completely done with the destruction of the mosque and building of the Ram temple there in the theoretical location where Lord Ram was born a new dispute appears in UP's Mathura where Lord Krishna was theoretically born.

The nature of the dispute is different from Ayodhya.  There was a Krishna temple that was located on the disputed site but was destroyed back in the 1670s by the Moguls and a mosque was built.  But under Maratha control a hundred years later the mosque was destroyed but a Krishna temple was not built.  The land in question was eventually sold to a Hindu group that built a temple in 1958.  Since the land was disputed by Muslim groups (claiming that the Maratha took the land illegally back in the 1700s) there was some compromise where part of the land gave the Muslim groups the to build a mosque.  So we had a mosque built right next to the Krishna temple complex.



Recently another Hindu group claimed that the group that gave away the land to the Muslims to build their mosque did not have legal control of the temple complex and was not authorized to do this.  Worse this Hindu group claims the land given to the Muslims was the exact spot Lord Krishna  was born (sounds familiar?)  

The UP court just order a investigation into these claims the Hindu group made about the exact spot Lord Krishna  was born (I assume through some sort of archeology)

One way or another this will open up the path for the BJP to make a big deal out of this in the assembly elections of 2023.  Anyway, here we go again.

[jaichind]

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/karnataka-bjp-mla-booked-after-bizman-dies-by-suicide-police-101672684628580.html

"Karnataka BJP MLA booked after bizman dies by suicide: Police"

The news for BJP continues to be bad for Karnataka.  Every other week there is a story of a Karnataka businessperson committing suicide with a note saying they were squeezed for money by a BJP MLA.

Back when INC was in charge of Karnataka the BJP accused it of being a "10% government" where the INC MLAs will get a 10% cut for every project.  Now the talk is that the BJP government is now a "40% government" where BJP MLAs demand a 40% cut of all government-related deals/contracts.

[jaichind]

It seems the BJP plan to use the Mathura Krishna temple controversy in its 2023   Karnataka assembly elections to try to consolidate the Hindu vote.  This plan has me thinking.  Looking back in history this seems to be an old BJP playbook "use a Hindu-Mulsim controversy far away to try to rally Hindu votes in an election."   Even though the BJP milked a lot of votes out of the Ayodhya Ram temple controversy for decades they actually used it much more outside of UP and use this topic a lot less in UP.  Then in 2022, the BJP used the Karnataka hijab row to help it rally Hindu votes in UP.  In 2023 it seems the BJP plan to use the UP Mathura Krishna temple controversy to try to rally Hindu votes in Karnataka.  I guess this is a strategy where it takes advantage of people knowing few details of a conflict far away and as a result, the local BJP can tell their spin version of said controversy to their electoral advantage without having to worry about being called out on papering over details that might go against their spin narrative of the controversy.

[jaichind]

CICERO Karnataka poll

INC       101
BJP         91
JD(S)      29

INC and BJP neck-to-neck.  At this stage, this is pretty positive for INC.