India 2023 assembly elections

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https://indianexpress.com/article/india/jp-nadda-bjp-executive-assembly-polls-2023-8385601/

How likely is this in your mind

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Episode 2 of the BBC documentary on Modi came out.

Episode 1 basically is "Modi is the mastermind behind the 2002 Gujarat riots"
Episode 2 basically is "Under Modi, Indian Muslims are second-class citizens"

One can debate if these characterizations are correct.  But what is not in dispute is that a Western liberal woke media making these documentaries will merely consolidate political support for the regime as is the case in all other situations like this.   Worst for INC,  the BBC will be viewed to be in league with INC and only help BJP at the national level.

Also this is the issue with creating the precedent that “misinformation” should be taken down . Once the precedent was created , it’s gonna be used more and more and that is something that isn’t good

[OSR stands with Israel]

Episode 2 of the BBC documentary on Modi came out.

Episode 1 basically is "Modi is the mastermind behind the 2002 Gujarat riots"
Episode 2 basically is "Under Modi, Indian Muslims are second-class citizens"

One can debate if these characterizations are correct.  But what is not in dispute is that a Western liberal woke media making these documentaries will merely consolidate political support for the regime as is the case in all other situations like this.   Worst for INC,  the BBC will be viewed to be in league with INC and only help BJP at the national level.

Also this is the issue with creating the precedent that “misinformation” should be taken down . Once the precedent was created , it’s gonna be used more and more and that is something that isn’t good

Frankly irresponsible of the BBC if we're being honest with ourselves. A fake news documentary that makes Modi look better in the eyes of his people helps nobody but the BBC.

Some people I know are also wondering whether or not this documentary was released to try to make the first Hindu PM be questioned about the UK’s relation with India .

[OSR stands with Israel]

Episode 2 of the BBC documentary on Modi came out.

Episode 1 basically is "Modi is the mastermind behind the 2002 Gujarat riots"
Episode 2 basically is "Under Modi, Indian Muslims are second-class citizens"

One can debate if these characterizations are correct.  But what is not in dispute is that a Western liberal woke media making these documentaries will merely consolidate political support for the regime as is the case in all other situations like this.   Worst for INC,  the BBC will be viewed to be in league with INC and only help BJP at the national level.

Also this is the issue with creating the precedent that “misinformation” should be taken down . Once the precedent was created , it’s gonna be used more and more and that is something that isn’t good

Frankly irresponsible of the BBC if we're being honest with ourselves. A fake news documentary that makes Modi look better in the eyes of his people helps nobody but the BBC.

I’m sorry ‘fake news’?

Seriously?

Ever heard of the boy who cried wolf?

Exactly what are you disputing?

Where’s the lies?

Was Narendra Modi not complicit in the mass murder of Muslims in Gujarat?
Is the Indian government under Modi not systematically discriminating against Muslims in India?

1. No and he was cleared by the courts and keep in mind the courts lean liberal in India especially back then .

2. No , the CAA does not lengthen the time it takes for Muslim immigrants to become citizens so this part is false . Also Modi is trying to get rid of special religious exemptions from laws and move to a uniform civil code which is actually what secularism is about

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Didnt the BJP have a bad 2018 as well or am I misremembering 

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INC ad.  Note how INC tries to reclaim the legacy of Sardar Patel, Ambedkar, Subhas Chandra Bose, Lal Bahadur Shastri, and Narasimha Rao.  All of them had had various run-ins with the Nehru-Gandhi clan and some of them had left INC because of it.

A lot of people in my family think India would be in much better shape if Patel and not Nehru wa the first PM

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A lot of people in my family think India would be in much better shape if Patel and not Nehru wa the first PM

Well, if your family is from Gujarat then, of course, they are going to say that.

Yes they are but they think if Patel was the first PM then India may not have gone as much down in the socialist direction and would not be anywhere near nepotistic.

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So is this overall a good result for the BJP or no

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This dynamic does point clearly to the likely answer to the question "After Modi, Who?" which is the modern version of the question back in the 1960s ("After Nehru, Who?").  The need for the top leader to have his own mass base so he is not threatened by those their own overlapping mass base points to UP BJP CM Yogi Adityanath as the more likely successor to Modi than Amit Shah who is more of a skilled strategist versus a mass leader.  I can see problems in the BJP 4-5 years from now with Yogi Adityanath and Amit Shah clashing for control and Yogi Adityanath's faction working to marginalize Modi to ensure succession.  The ego of Modi and Yogi Adityanath might be too big to handle a peaceful succession without proving a civil war.  The weaker INC is 4-5 years from now the more likely such a BJP civil war of succession will break out.

Isn’t this the problem of trying to replace any seemingly transformative leader for parties . The Tories struggled greatly to replace Thatcher, the GOP struggled to fill Reagan’s shows and many republicans for decades from different wings tried to show they are the true heir to Reagan etc .

In general I think transformative leaders benefit from the fact that since they were the ones who brought their party to power and gave them more success then the party had seen in decades on both a policy and electoral front , they tend to be liked by all wings of the party . The successor though does not get the same benefit and divides that were covered up by the transformative leader gets exposed .

So I don’t think there is really much BJP can do about this as this seems inherent in many other nations in realigning states of their politics .

[OSR stands with Israel]

This dynamic does point clearly to the likely answer to the question "After Modi, Who?" which is the modern version of the question back in the 1960s ("After Nehru, Who?").  The need for the top leader to have his own mass base so he is not threatened by those their own overlapping mass base points to UP BJP CM Yogi Adityanath as the more likely successor to Modi than Amit Shah who is more of a skilled strategist versus a mass leader.  I can see problems in the BJP 4-5 years from now with Yogi Adityanath and Amit Shah clashing for control and Yogi Adityanath's faction working to marginalize Modi to ensure succession.  The ego of Modi and Yogi Adityanath might be too big to handle a peaceful succession without proving a civil war.  The weaker INC is 4-5 years from now the more likely such a BJP civil war of succession will break out.

Isn’t this the problem of trying to replace any seemingly transformative leader for parties . The Tories struggled greatly to replace Thatcher, the GOP struggled to fill Reagan’s shows and many republicans for decades from different wings tried to show they are the true heir to Reagan etc .

In general I think transformative leaders benefit from the fact that since they were the ones who brought their party to power and gave them more success then the party had seen in decades on both a policy and electoral front , they tend to be liked by all wings of the party . The successor though does not get the same benefit and divides that were covered up by the transformative leader gets exposed .

So I don’t think there is really much BJP can do about this as this seems inherent in many other nations in realigning states of their politics .

I would generally agree.  The BJP is lucky that they have someone like Yogi Adityanath that seems to have a solid chance of replciating the Modi system.

It seems like he sort of would be the Indira Gandhi analogy here then for the BJP

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https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/nation/rahul-gandhi-faces-lok-sabha-disqualification-risk-over-2-year-sentence-in-defamation-case-490644

"Rahul Gandhi faces Lok Sabha disqualification risk over 2-year sentence in defamation case"

Rahul Gandhi was found guilty and given a 2-year jail sentence over a 2019 criminal defamation case which involved him saying "How come all thieves have surname Modi" over allegations of corruption in the Modi government. 

Rahul Gandhi will appeal but if he does not win he could lose his LS seats.  Overall this is not good news for BJP.  Modi and the BJP are set to win with ease in 2024 with Rahul Gandhi as the face of INC and other anti-BJP parties trying to form a third front.  Any change in the dynamics is merely risk for the BJP in an election they are set to win.

Why are such laws even considered constitutional In India

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These authoritarians are all taking pages out of each other's books, aren't they? This is pretty much the same thing that was done to Ekrem İmamoğlu in Turkey.

Well given what Jaichind posted , it seems like Rahul Gandhi opposed repealing this law or even allowing mp’s to sit in parliament through the appeals process . So it does seem like it’s unfortunately  bipartisan in India to believe that criminal defamation should be a thing or as loose as it currently is .

Still though I think the President of India should blanket pardon anyone who was convicted of this law cause this law is bs and the pardon power should be used to undermine it .

Lastly I don’t think this was really done for political reasons cause it would make zero sense for it to be done . The Gandhi Family controlling the INC effectively means the BJP has nothing but token opposition but if they were disqualified, then a non Gandhi Family figure could rise and then the BJP would be far far more vulnerable. So I think this is more due to a moronic law which I hope either gets repealed or the president issued blanket pardons for .

 

[OSR stands with Israel]

These authoritarians are all taking pages out of each other's books, aren't they? This is pretty much the same thing that was done to Ekrem İmamoğlu in Turkey.

I am fine with this statement as long as you will also apply it in the case of Trump if and when he faces an indictment and lump the USA into the mix as you have above.

So do you think both cases are still comparable

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Actually, just a correction.

https://www.indiavotes.com/alliance/partyWise/17

This page shows NDA excluding BJP got 7.5%, so BJP/NDA in 2019 was approximate 45.2% of the total vote versus INC/UPA at 26.4%.

That would mean the infograph is showing only the BJP vote share in 2019 and thus also 2023. This would mean they are also only showing the INC voteshare in 2019 and also 2023? 29% seems really high, I'm surprised.

Exactly. The poll seems to poll support for the major party and not allies.  For 2024 NDA is pretty much BJP other than for AS(S) in UP, AJSU in Jharkhand, AGP in Assam, SHS in Mahratratra,  LJP in Bihar, and AIADMK/OMK in TN.  I think at this stage NDA = BJP + ~3% so BJP at 39% would mostly translate to NDA at around 42%

INC at 29% is very impressive. As for what this means it really depends on where the INC growth is coming from.  The most advantageous place for INC to grow is the non-UP Hindi heartland.  If that is where INC vote share growth is coming from then BJP will take a large hit in seats.  If it is in UP or places like WB or Odisha then the BJP seat impact will the significant but not large.

All things equal this poll shows that 2024 is not a done deal for BJP if the poll is accurate.

How does the INC look though compared to at this point in 2018

[OSR stands with Israel]

Actually, just a correction.

https://www.indiavotes.com/alliance/partyWise/17

This page shows NDA excluding BJP got 7.5%, so BJP/NDA in 2019 was approximate 45.2% of the total vote versus INC/UPA at 26.4%.

That would mean the infograph is showing only the BJP vote share in 2019 and thus also 2023. This would mean they are also only showing the INC voteshare in 2019 and also 2023? 29% seems really high, I'm surprised.

Exactly. The poll seems to poll support for the major party and not allies.  For 2024 NDA is pretty much BJP other than for AS(S) in UP, AJSU in Jharkhand, AGP in Assam, SHS in Mahratratra,  LJP in Bihar, and AIADMK/OMK in TN.  I think at this stage NDA = BJP + ~3% so BJP at 39% would mostly translate to NDA at around 42%

INC at 29% is very impressive. As for what this means it really depends on where the INC growth is coming from.  The most advantageous place for INC to grow is the non-UP Hindi heartland.  If that is where INC vote share growth is coming from then BJP will take a large hit in seats.  If it is in UP or places like WB or Odisha then the BJP seat impact will the significant but not large.

All things equal this poll shows that 2024 is not a done deal for BJP if the poll is accurate.

According to NDTV, the "Lokniti-CSDS conducted the survey among 7202 people spread across 19 states and 71 constituencies in India".

I have a hard time believing INC is gaining ground in WB, UP, and Odisha. However, it's equally hard to believe they have gained so much ground in the rest of the non-UP Hindi belt. That's why I was so surprised with the polling. In 2009, INC and BJP combined had 47.4% of the PV. SP and BSP accounted for 9.6%. Since then, BJP has clearly been cannibalising INC, SP, and BSP  to get to the high 30s. Where could INC be getting that much PV if BJP is still in the high 30s?

Just for comparison:

2009: BJP+INC = 47.4%
2014: BJP+INC = 50.31%
2019: BJP+INC = 56.85%
2023: BJP+INC = 68% (according to NDTV CSDS)

Edit: maybe it's a turnout thing?

2009: 58.2%
2014: 66.4%
2019: 67.4%
2024: ?

Maybe you are beginning to see in India what you see in other nations where you get a dominant party now days (especially if it’s dominated by one person) and that is opposition to that party starts to unite in unusual  way .

Fundamentally Indian politics revolve far more a singular individual than it has in decades so it makes sense that regional parties start to collapse

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://www.business-standard.com/politics/our-policy-would-be-similar-rahul-gandhi-on-centre-s-stance-on-ukraine-war-123060200050_1.html

"Our policy would be similar: Rahul Gandhi on Centre's stance on Ukraine war"

Rahul Gandhi is on a USA tour and spent a lot of time attacking Modi and BJP.   But on the Russia-Ukraine war, he did say that the INC position would be the same as BJP and would continue to have close relations with Russia.  It seems in India there is an elite consensus on this topic.

The worst policies do have bipartisan support many times

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If you had to rank how the incumbent party was dating a year before an election , how would you rank the BJP’s shape in 2023 compared to their shape in 2003 and 2018 and the INC in 2008 and 2013

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It is so frustrating that in India, so many view us as horrible for dropping the Nukes on Japan. Many associate Japan with how Japan is now and when I explain them the stuff Japan did in WW2, they usually cant believe it.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Given the endless violence and now the blowup of the video of two Kuki women being sexually assaulted and forced to mark naked by a Meitei mob there has been more and more pressure for Manipur CM N. Biren Singh to be removed.  But there seems to be no sign of this taking place.

The reason why is N. Biren Singh has become Modi's Modi.  Back in 2002 during the Gujarat riots, there was pressure within the moderate wing of the BJP as well as NDA allies for BJP PM Vajpayee to sack Modi as CM of Gujarat.   Vajpayee was stopped from doing this due to the intervention of BJP DPM and BJP #2 Advani.   Advani's argument was that getting rid of Modi could create a split in the BJP as Modi has become the hero of the Hindu nationalist Right wing of the BJP.  Furthermore, Advani argued, the BJP must keep its core Hindu nationalist vote base.  Of course, in 2013 Modi repaid Advani's intervention in 2002 that saved his political career by overthrowing him as the leader of the BJP and taking over himself.

A very similar dynamic is taking place now.  N. Biren Singh has control of the Meitei vote in Manipur which is now the core BJP vote in Manipur.  Removing N. Biren Singh would merely mean a split in the Manipur BJP.  In other words, N. Biren Singh has become Modi's Modi.  Of course, the risk the BJP takes by leaving N. Biren Singh in place given the national attention on the Manipur violence would be the impact on the women and tribal vote.  The BJP has been gaining with the women and tribal vote last few years and not resolving the Manipur crisis is likely to erode BJP gains at the national level just in time for the 2024 LS elections.

Didn't Modi also call a Snap Election in 2002 and his landslide win made it impossible for Vajpayee to remove Modi

[OSR stands with Israel]

Given the endless violence and now the blowup of the video of two Kuki women being sexually assaulted and forced to mark naked by a Meitei mob there has been more and more pressure for Manipur CM N. Biren Singh to be removed.  But there seems to be no sign of this taking place.

The reason why is N. Biren Singh has become Modi's Modi.  Back in 2002 during the Gujarat riots, there was pressure within the moderate wing of the BJP as well as NDA allies for BJP PM Vajpayee to sack Modi as CM of Gujarat.   Vajpayee was stopped from doing this due to the intervention of BJP DPM and BJP #2 Advani.   Advani's argument was that getting rid of Modi could create a split in the BJP as Modi has become the hero of the Hindu nationalist Right wing of the BJP.  Furthermore, Advani argued, the BJP must keep its core Hindu nationalist vote base.  Of course, in 2013 Modi repaid Advani's intervention in 2002 that saved his political career by overthrowing him as the leader of the BJP and taking over himself.

A very similar dynamic is taking place now.  N. Biren Singh has control of the Meitei vote in Manipur which is now the core BJP vote in Manipur.  Removing N. Biren Singh would merely mean a split in the Manipur BJP.  In other words, N. Biren Singh has become Modi's Modi.  Of course, the risk the BJP takes by leaving N. Biren Singh in place given the national attention on the Manipur violence would be the impact on the women and tribal vote.  The BJP has been gaining with the women and tribal vote last few years and not resolving the Manipur crisis is likely to erode BJP gains at the national level just in time for the 2024 LS elections.

Didn't Modi also call a Snap Election in 2002 and his landslide win made it impossible for Vajpayee to remove Modi

The snap election made it more difficult to remove Modi, yes, but Vajpayee and Advani combined had enough pull to remove him if they both agreed. Before Modi, Advani was the icon of Hindutva, and credited with the progress of the Ram Temple movement. It's funny in hindsight because centrist BJP leaders and sympathetic media have spent the last 10 years trying to rebrand Advani as a Hinduvta moderate who opposed Modi's more "hardline" approach. To be honest, it's less about Hinduvta, and more about the real or perceived decentralisation of BJP high command during the pre-Modi era. It will be interesting to see if, and when, Yogi becomes PM, whether they try to rebrand Modi as a moderate if they need an ideal past leader within the BJP to counter him.

My guess is the BJP post Modi will have many of the issues the GOP had post Reagan. When the charismatic leader who brought their parties to the promise land left , many of the divisions that were covered up in the years he was in charge started to come out.

Just like with the GOP under Reagan, there are many hardliners who think Modi has not gonna far enough and moderates who think hes gone to far and I think those divisions will cause major issues for the BJP post Modi. Imo taking advantage of that schism with a rebranded INC will be how the BJP gets booted from office too.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Given the endless violence and now the blowup of the video of two Kuki women being sexually assaulted and forced to mark naked by a Meitei mob there has been more and more pressure for Manipur CM N. Biren Singh to be removed.  But there seems to be no sign of this taking place.

The reason why is N. Biren Singh has become Modi's Modi.  Back in 2002 during the Gujarat riots, there was pressure within the moderate wing of the BJP as well as NDA allies for BJP PM Vajpayee to sack Modi as CM of Gujarat.   Vajpayee was stopped from doing this due to the intervention of BJP DPM and BJP #2 Advani.   Advani's argument was that getting rid of Modi could create a split in the BJP as Modi has become the hero of the Hindu nationalist Right wing of the BJP.  Furthermore, Advani argued, the BJP must keep its core Hindu nationalist vote base.  Of course, in 2013 Modi repaid Advani's intervention in 2002 that saved his political career by overthrowing him as the leader of the BJP and taking over himself.

A very similar dynamic is taking place now.  N. Biren Singh has control of the Meitei vote in Manipur which is now the core BJP vote in Manipur.  Removing N. Biren Singh would merely mean a split in the Manipur BJP.  In other words, N. Biren Singh has become Modi's Modi.  Of course, the risk the BJP takes by leaving N. Biren Singh in place given the national attention on the Manipur violence would be the impact on the women and tribal vote.  The BJP has been gaining with the women and tribal vote last few years and not resolving the Manipur crisis is likely to erode BJP gains at the national level just in time for the 2024 LS elections.

Didn't Modi also call a Snap Election in 2002 and his landslide win made it impossible for Vajpayee to remove Modi

The snap election made it more difficult to remove Modi, yes, but Vajpayee and Advani combined had enough pull to remove him if they both agreed. Before Modi, Advani was the icon of Hindutva, and credited with the progress of the Ram Temple movement. It's funny in hindsight because centrist BJP leaders and sympathetic media have spent the last 10 years trying to rebrand Advani as a Hinduvta moderate who opposed Modi's more "hardline" approach. To be honest, it's less about Hinduvta, and more about the real or perceived decentralisation of BJP high command during the pre-Modi era. It will be interesting to see if, and when, Yogi becomes PM, whether they try to rebrand Modi as a moderate if they need an ideal past leader within the BJP to counter him.

My guess is the BJP post Modi will have many of the issues the GOP had post Reagan. When the charismatic leader who brought their parties to the promise land left , many of the divisions that were covered up in the years he was in charge started to come out.

Just like with the GOP under Reagan, there are many hardliners who think Modi has not gonna far enough and moderates who think hes gone to far and I think those divisions will cause major issues for the BJP post Modi. Imo taking advantage of that schism with a rebranded INC will be how the BJP gets booted from office too.

I have become quite cynical and think BJP is always a Pakistan incident away from a landslide in every LS election. Voter mindsets have changed drastically in recent years. Even the Kargil War in 1999 didn't really help BJP in the elections later that year. However, LS elections have become a de facto referendum on Indian nationalism, at least, in the North. How much of that is actually Modi's personal popularity remains to be seen. If it's just Modi, I'd agree that INC can come back into power. However, if the voters mainly like the nationalist brand projected by BJP, I wouldn't be surprised to see future BJP landslides under someone like Yogi. I think it's more likely a combination of the two factors, and if so, BJP will certainly be weakened without Modi. Then again, who knows if Yogi could or couldn't capture and project that kind of personal popularity. One thing that Modi had going for him was the public perception of being a successful civilian administrator and troubleshooter, in addition to Hinduvta credentials. I don't think Yogi can pull that off, but the pro-BJP media has been trying to brush up his administrative credentials.

I do think the BJP will win the next two elections but I do think they will lose power sometimes in the 2030s to a rebranded Congress(remember the Dem Party that came back post Reagan was pretty different than the one that got crushed in the 80s).

Basically right now since Modi was the one who brought the BJP to the promised land , both the moderate wing of the party and the hardline wing are willing to put differences aside to support that leader but once Modi is gone, I am no longer sure they can. Also I think Congress in the 2030s coopt much of the BJP's nationalist messaging which makes the party more appealing to more Moderate Nationalist voters that preferred the Vajpayee era BJP to this one. I also think due to globalization , urban areas in India will eventually move left and you will see the rebranded Congress party have a far more urban coalition than they have in recent memory.

You could say in some ways if you want to go to much in the US comparisons , that Yogi would be a hybrid of Buchanan/Gingrich and Shah is more like Bush/Dole.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Given the endless violence and now the blowup of the video of two Kuki women being sexually assaulted and forced to mark naked by a Meitei mob there has been more and more pressure for Manipur CM N. Biren Singh to be removed.  But there seems to be no sign of this taking place.

The reason why is N. Biren Singh has become Modi's Modi.  Back in 2002 during the Gujarat riots, there was pressure within the moderate wing of the BJP as well as NDA allies for BJP PM Vajpayee to sack Modi as CM of Gujarat.   Vajpayee was stopped from doing this due to the intervention of BJP DPM and BJP #2 Advani.   Advani's argument was that getting rid of Modi could create a split in the BJP as Modi has become the hero of the Hindu nationalist Right wing of the BJP.  Furthermore, Advani argued, the BJP must keep its core Hindu nationalist vote base.  Of course, in 2013 Modi repaid Advani's intervention in 2002 that saved his political career by overthrowing him as the leader of the BJP and taking over himself.

A very similar dynamic is taking place now.  N. Biren Singh has control of the Meitei vote in Manipur which is now the core BJP vote in Manipur.  Removing N. Biren Singh would merely mean a split in the Manipur BJP.  In other words, N. Biren Singh has become Modi's Modi.  Of course, the risk the BJP takes by leaving N. Biren Singh in place given the national attention on the Manipur violence would be the impact on the women and tribal vote.  The BJP has been gaining with the women and tribal vote last few years and not resolving the Manipur crisis is likely to erode BJP gains at the national level just in time for the 2024 LS elections.

Didn't Modi also call a Snap Election in 2002 and his landslide win made it impossible for Vajpayee to remove Modi

The snap election made it more difficult to remove Modi, yes, but Vajpayee and Advani combined had enough pull to remove him if they both agreed. Before Modi, Advani was the icon of Hindutva, and credited with the progress of the Ram Temple movement. It's funny in hindsight because centrist BJP leaders and sympathetic media have spent the last 10 years trying to rebrand Advani as a Hinduvta moderate who opposed Modi's more "hardline" approach. To be honest, it's less about Hinduvta, and more about the real or perceived decentralisation of BJP high command during the pre-Modi era. It will be interesting to see if, and when, Yogi becomes PM, whether they try to rebrand Modi as a moderate if they need an ideal past leader within the BJP to counter him.

My guess is the BJP post Modi will have many of the issues the GOP had post Reagan. When the charismatic leader who brought their parties to the promise land left , many of the divisions that were covered up in the years he was in charge started to come out.

Just like with the GOP under Reagan, there are many hardliners who think Modi has not gonna far enough and moderates who think hes gone to far and I think those divisions will cause major issues for the BJP post Modi. Imo taking advantage of that schism with a rebranded INC will be how the BJP gets booted from office too.

I have become quite cynical and think BJP is always a Pakistan incident away from a landslide in every LS election. Voter mindsets have changed drastically in recent years. Even the Kargil War in 1999 didn't really help BJP in the elections later that year. However, LS elections have become a de facto referendum on Indian nationalism, at least, in the North. How much of that is actually Modi's personal popularity remains to be seen. If it's just Modi, I'd agree that INC can come back into power. However, if the voters mainly like the nationalist brand projected by BJP, I wouldn't be surprised to see future BJP landslides under someone like Yogi. I think it's more likely a combination of the two factors, and if so, BJP will certainly be weakened without Modi. Then again, who knows if Yogi could or couldn't capture and project that kind of personal popularity. One thing that Modi had going for him was the public perception of being a successful civilian administrator and troubleshooter, in addition to Hinduvta credentials. I don't think Yogi can pull that off, but the pro-BJP media has been trying to brush up his administrative credentials.

I do think the BJP will win the next two elections but I do think they will lose power sometimes in the 2030s to a rebranded Congress(remember the Dem Party that came back post Reagan was pretty different than the one that got crushed in the 80s).

Basically right now since Modi was the one who brought the BJP to the promised land , both the moderate wing of the party and the hardline wing are willing to put differences aside to support that leader but once Modi is gone, I am no longer sure they can. Also I think Congress in the 2030s coopt much of the BJP's nationalist messaging which makes the party more appealing to more Moderate Nationalist voters that preferred the Vajpayee era BJP to this one. I also think due to globalization , urban areas in India will eventually move left and you will see the rebranded Congress party have a far more urban coalition than they have in recent memory.

You could say in some ways if you want to go to much in the US comparisons , that Yogi would be a hybrid of Buchanan/Gingrich and Shah is more like Bush/Dole.

I don't think Modi will leave office of his own accord. He will die in office or lose an election, neither of which seems likely at this time. Maybe he will consider retiring if he surpasses Nehru's 17 years as PM.

Interesting. I am not totally sure about the US and India comparison in terms of the urban coalition. The BJP has historically been the urban party, and I don't see issues cropping up where INC can take a lead in urban areas.

Aren't Urban Areas generally more socially liberal than rural areas too and btw I didnt mean INC does as good in Urban areas as dems do here, but rather their coalition will be more Urban than their 2004/2009 ones when they take back power.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Given the endless violence and now the blowup of the video of two Kuki women being sexually assaulted and forced to mark naked by a Meitei mob there has been more and more pressure for Manipur CM N. Biren Singh to be removed.  But there seems to be no sign of this taking place.

The reason why is N. Biren Singh has become Modi's Modi.  Back in 2002 during the Gujarat riots, there was pressure within the moderate wing of the BJP as well as NDA allies for BJP PM Vajpayee to sack Modi as CM of Gujarat.   Vajpayee was stopped from doing this due to the intervention of BJP DPM and BJP #2 Advani.   Advani's argument was that getting rid of Modi could create a split in the BJP as Modi has become the hero of the Hindu nationalist Right wing of the BJP.  Furthermore, Advani argued, the BJP must keep its core Hindu nationalist vote base.  Of course, in 2013 Modi repaid Advani's intervention in 2002 that saved his political career by overthrowing him as the leader of the BJP and taking over himself.

A very similar dynamic is taking place now.  N. Biren Singh has control of the Meitei vote in Manipur which is now the core BJP vote in Manipur.  Removing N. Biren Singh would merely mean a split in the Manipur BJP.  In other words, N. Biren Singh has become Modi's Modi.  Of course, the risk the BJP takes by leaving N. Biren Singh in place given the national attention on the Manipur violence would be the impact on the women and tribal vote.  The BJP has been gaining with the women and tribal vote last few years and not resolving the Manipur crisis is likely to erode BJP gains at the national level just in time for the 2024 LS elections.

Didn't Modi also call a Snap Election in 2002 and his landslide win made it impossible for Vajpayee to remove Modi

The snap election made it more difficult to remove Modi, yes, but Vajpayee and Advani combined had enough pull to remove him if they both agreed. Before Modi, Advani was the icon of Hindutva, and credited with the progress of the Ram Temple movement. It's funny in hindsight because centrist BJP leaders and sympathetic media have spent the last 10 years trying to rebrand Advani as a Hinduvta moderate who opposed Modi's more "hardline" approach. To be honest, it's less about Hinduvta, and more about the real or perceived decentralisation of BJP high command during the pre-Modi era. It will be interesting to see if, and when, Yogi becomes PM, whether they try to rebrand Modi as a moderate if they need an ideal past leader within the BJP to counter him.

My guess is the BJP post Modi will have many of the issues the GOP had post Reagan. When the charismatic leader who brought their parties to the promise land left , many of the divisions that were covered up in the years he was in charge started to come out.

Just like with the GOP under Reagan, there are many hardliners who think Modi has not gonna far enough and moderates who think hes gone to far and I think those divisions will cause major issues for the BJP post Modi. Imo taking advantage of that schism with a rebranded INC will be how the BJP gets booted from office too.

I have become quite cynical and think BJP is always a Pakistan incident away from a landslide in every LS election. Voter mindsets have changed drastically in recent years. Even the Kargil War in 1999 didn't really help BJP in the elections later that year. However, LS elections have become a de facto referendum on Indian nationalism, at least, in the North. How much of that is actually Modi's personal popularity remains to be seen. If it's just Modi, I'd agree that INC can come back into power. However, if the voters mainly like the nationalist brand projected by BJP, I wouldn't be surprised to see future BJP landslides under someone like Yogi. I think it's more likely a combination of the two factors, and if so, BJP will certainly be weakened without Modi. Then again, who knows if Yogi could or couldn't capture and project that kind of personal popularity. One thing that Modi had going for him was the public perception of being a successful civilian administrator and troubleshooter, in addition to Hinduvta credentials. I don't think Yogi can pull that off, but the pro-BJP media has been trying to brush up his administrative credentials.

I do think the BJP will win the next two elections but I do think they will lose power sometimes in the 2030s to a rebranded Congress(remember the Dem Party that came back post Reagan was pretty different than the one that got crushed in the 80s).

Basically right now since Modi was the one who brought the BJP to the promised land , both the moderate wing of the party and the hardline wing are willing to put differences aside to support that leader but once Modi is gone, I am no longer sure they can. Also I think Congress in the 2030s coopt much of the BJP's nationalist messaging which makes the party more appealing to more Moderate Nationalist voters that preferred the Vajpayee era BJP to this one. I also think due to globalization , urban areas in India will eventually move left and you will see the rebranded Congress party have a far more urban coalition than they have in recent memory.

You could say in some ways if you want to go to much in the US comparisons , that Yogi would be a hybrid of Buchanan/Gingrich and Shah is more like Bush/Dole.

I don't think Modi will leave office of his own accord. He will die in office or lose an election, neither of which seems likely at this time. Maybe he will consider retiring if he surpasses Nehru's 17 years as PM.

Interesting. I am not totally sure about the US and India comparison in terms of the urban coalition. The BJP has historically been the urban party, and I don't see issues cropping up where INC can take a lead in urban areas.

Aren't Urban Areas generally more socially liberal than rural areas too and btw I didnt mean INC does as good in Urban areas as dems do here, but rather their coalition will be more Urban than their 2004/2009 ones when they take back power.

In terms of total population, yes, urban areas are likely to include more "social liberals". However, in relative terms, urban areas still tend to favour the BJP while INC is actually stronger in rural areas. I find that India doesn't really have many wedge social issues that can polarise the electorate in favour of the INC. I can't see anything developing to favour the INC either. However, things could suddenly change in a few years, who knows.

I dont think the INC takes power until the Mid 2030s so it will still be a while before that happens.

[OSR stands with Israel]

How is the NDA up so much in terms of seats if they are only up 2 nationally .

[OSR stands with Israel]

I did some research online and my conclusion is that the BJP does NOT need a 2/3 majority of LS/RS plus 50% of assemblies to pull off One Country One vote.  What Modi can do is pass a one-time Constitutional amendment that changes the duration of all the state assemblies to end exactly the same date as the LS election date.  Since this does not change the role and responsibilities of the Union government and the state government then a 2/3 majority of LS/RS and 50% of the state assemblies is not required.

Now in theory this will not play well in states that just had their assembly elections recently ("We just voted 2 years ago so why should we vote again now") but if this can be coupled with a rebranding of India as Bharat I can see this being a political winner.

If Modi pulls this off I would argue this plus the other things (UCC, Women's reservation etc, etc.) make this 1865 of India or the Second Republic of India(Bharat.)  I always argued that the USA before and after 1865 with the 14th Amendment is so different that after 1865 should be thought of as the USA's Second Republic.  I think something similar could be taking place in  India (now Bharat)

What's the point of having all the state elections take place with the federal election. I thought this would be all the states holding the federal election on the same day