India 2023 assembly elections

[jaichind]

Jan Ki Baat poll for Karnataka - seems like status quo relative to 2018 results

The vote share-to-seat mapping does seem to make sense.




It seems to have BJP still keeping the Lingayat vote


It also has BJP making some gains with the Vokkaliga vote as well


Tribal vote leans toward INC


Lambanis Dalit heavy for INC


Non-Lambanis Dalit also for INC but with a smaller margin


OBC  Kurbas caste also heavy for INC


Muslim vote clearly goes INC


Some OBC groups



Regional breakdown
BJP seat gains in Old Mysore seem to confirm its gains in the Vokkaliga vote

[jaichind]

https://www.deccanchronicle.com/nation/politics/160423/ex-cm-jagadish-shettar-resigns-from-bjp-over-denial-of-ticket.html

"Ex-CM Jagadish Shettar resigns from BJP over denial of ticket"

Former BJP CM Jagadish Shettar quits BJP after being denied a ticket for his seat and is likely to join INC.  Jagadish Shettar was BJP CM from 2012-2013 and lead BJP into a landslide defeat in the 2013 assembly election.

BJP CM Basavaraj Bommai seems to have ignored Jagadish Shettar's ultimatum that he will quit BJP if denied a ticket. Basavaraj Bommai is a special enemy of  Jagadish Shettar.  Basavaraj Bommai has a JD background (his father S. R. Bommai was JD CM in 1988-1989) and ran against  Jagadish Shettar in 1994 in a losing effort on the JD ticket.  Now he is getting his revenge although if  Jagadish Shettar wins on the INC ticket he would have the last laugh.

https://indianexpress.com/article/political-pulse/who-is-laxman-savadi-former-karnataka-deputy-cm-bjp-join-congress-8556017/

"Who is Laxman Savadi, the former Karnataka deputy CM who quit BJP and is set to join Congress?"

Also former BJP DCM Laxman Savadi has also quit BJP and will run for INC.

[jaichind]

https://english.mathrubhumi.com/news/india/cpm-strikes-deal-with-jd-s-in-karnataka-polls-eyes-victory-in-bagepalli-constituency-1.8481602

"CPM strikes deal with JD(S) in Karnataka polls, eyes victory in Bagepalli constituency"

Looks like this year JD(S) will form an alliance with CPM in Karnataka.  Back in 2018 JD(S) had an alliance with BSP.

[randomusername]

Thoughts on this: https://www.newindianexpress.com/thesundaystandard/2023/apr/16/shinde-going-goingajit-pawar-readies-to-be-maha-successor-2566252.html

?

[jaichind]

Thoughts on this: https://www.newindianexpress.com/thesundaystandard/2023/apr/16/shinde-going-goingajit-pawar-readies-to-be-maha-successor-2566252.html

?

Well, Ajit Pawar had a short live rebellion where he joined forces with the BJP for a few days back in 2019 so this is not a total surprise.  I am skeptical more from the NDA opportunity cost point of view.  To get Ajit Pawar to come over you need to give him at least DCM as well as ministries for his NCP faction.  There are already unhappy BJP and SHS MLAs that are missing their share of power.  There does not seem to be any benefit in taking in Ajit Pawar and a NCP rebel faction since the current NDA government has a workable majority.

I suspect this story is put out by some BJP factions as a threat to SHS CM Shinde to warn him that they have options and if he does not take BJP's views into account the BJP can always dump him and go with Ajit Pawar.

[randomusername]

Thoughts on this: https://www.newindianexpress.com/thesundaystandard/2023/apr/16/shinde-going-goingajit-pawar-readies-to-be-maha-successor-2566252.html

?

Well, Ajit Pawar had a short live rebellion where he joined forces with the BJP for a few days back in 2019 so this is not a total surprise.  I am skeptical more from the NDA opportunity cost point of view.  To get Ajit Pawar to come over you need to give him at least DCM as well as ministries for his NCP faction.  There are already unhappy BJP and SHS MLAs that are missing their share of power.  There does not seem to be any benefit in taking in Ajit Pawar and a NCP rebel faction since the current NDA government has a workable majority.

I suspect this story is put out by some BJP factions as a threat to SHS CM Shinde to warn him that they have options and if he does not take BJP's views into account the BJP can always dump him and go with Ajit Pawar.

My initial reaction when Ajit Pawar joined hands with them as a Trojan Horse to get the cases against him wiped cleaned. Everything you said makes sense. I was surprised by this line in the article:

"According to an internal BJP survey, the Maha Vikas Aghadi would bag as many as 33 of the total 48 Lok Sabha seats in the state."

[jaichind]

My initial reaction when Ajit Pawar joined hands with them as a Trojan Horse to get the cases against him wiped cleaned. Everything you said makes sense. I was surprised by this line in the article:

"According to an internal BJP survey, the Maha Vikas Aghadi would bag as many as 33 of the total 48 Lok Sabha seats in the state."

Yes, I find it hard to believe that MVA can win 33 out of 48 seats.  Everything comes down to how much of the SHS vote has SHS(U) retained and how transferrable that vote is to INC and NCP candidates.  And there is the factor of Modi being on top of the ticket.  Hopefully, the BMC elections take place soon so we can get a sense of how the old SHS vote split, at least in Mumbai.  If the SHS vote is going to be split in favor of SHS(U) it would be in Mumbai.  If SHS(U) underperforms in BMC then we can say for sure 33 out of 48 for MVA is not going to take place.

[jaichind]

https://www.indiatvnews.com/maharashtra/ncp-mlas-may-join-bjp-sharad-pawar-says-centre-putting-ed-cbi-pressure-mva-uddhav-shiv-sena-sanjay-raut-ajit-pawar-latest-news-2023-04-17-864227

"Maharashtra: 13 MLAs of Sharad Pawar's NCP in touch with BJP, may switch sides, say sources"

13 is not enough to avoid anti-defection law

[jaichind]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/karnataka-assembly-election-karnataka-leader-mp-kumaraswamy-joins-jd-s-day-after-quitting-bjp-3949162

"Karnataka Leader MP Kumaraswamy Joins JD(S) Day After Quitting BJP"

Here we have a case of a BJP MP who insists on contesting assembly elections and has quit BJP due to not getting a ticket and will run for JD(S) in the assembly.

The most likely reason he is doing this is there is more money to be made by being a Karnataka MLA than MP.  For states with a real estate boom mega cities (Bengaluru in Karnataka, Mumbai and Pune in Maharashtra,  Hyderabad in Telangana) the state government has a lot of say in zoning laws which in turn means a lot of money for MLAs in those states.

[jaichind]

Pro-INC Lok poll has INC running away with the Karnataka assembly elections

[jaichind]

Latest in Ajit Pawar's NCP-BJP drama

https://www.thequint.com/news/politics/not-backing-bjp-ncp-leader-ajit-pawar-amid-rumors-of-split

"'Won't Back BJP, Will Do as Party Says': NCP's Ajit Pawar Slams Rumours of Split"

Ajit Pawar rejects rumors that he will lead a split of the NCP to join forces with BJP



https://www.deccanherald.com/national/west/we-will-quit-if-ajit-pawar-joins-govt-shiv-sena-1211040.html

"We will quit if Ajit Pawar joins govt: Shiv Sena

SHS says that if Ajit Pawar joins BJP or SHS by himself they will welcome him but if he leads a group of NCP to join NDA then SHS will quit the NDA government.  The idea is that a group of NCP MLAs will want their share of the spoils which SHS will not concede

What one has to remember about NCP is

a) NCP is highly opportunistic
b) Nothing happens without the tacit approval of Sharad Pawar

So if there is some move in the future involving NCP MLAs joining BJP then it is with the tacit approval of Sharad Pawar and an attempt to play both sides of the fence before making a call in 2024 which side to go with.

[jaichind]

https://m.tribuneindia.com/news/punjab/amritpal-singhs-wife-kirandeep-stopped-at-amritsar-airport-as-she-tries-to-board-flight-to-london-punjab-police-sources-499248

"Amritpal Singh's wife Kirandeep stopped from boarding London flight at Amritsar airport; sent back to village"

Amritpal Singh's wife unsuccessfully tries to leave country.  BTW, after a month on the run Amritpal Singh is still at large and the Punjab police seems to have no idea where he is or if he is still even in India. 

[jaichind]

Times Now Survey for the 2024 LS Election

NDA landslide.  The seat count seems off.  No way Others are at 50-80 (that would be SP BSP JD(S) AAP SAD TDP BRS Left Front)  Overall this survey underestimates AITC and BJD and overestimates YSRCP.  Vote share for NDA and UPA seems similar to 2019.



Modi's strongest face for PM by far with no prospect of a united opposition to take on Modi. These questions tend to favor the incumbent but the scale of the Modi lead is not deniable



Rahul Gandhi has not consolidated himself as the face of the opposition


Modi approval high



The main hope of anti-BJP forces is that inflation and unemployment drag down the BJP vote


Going after Adani is most likely not a good way to go after Modi/BJP


Rahul Gandhi not getting much of a bump over his conviction and disqualification as MP

[jaichind]

First betting odds out of Karnataka

INC     116
BJP       79
JD(S)    26

Sounds about right.  I think INC is very likely to win a plurality but will most likely fall short of a workable majority of 115.  I think once Modi gets into action these odds will move against INC but on election day will have INC outperform those lower odds to be close to 115 but fall below it.

[jaichind]

https://www.deccanherald.com/national/north-and-central/radical-preacher-amritpal-singh-arrested-from-punjabs-moga-1212159.html

"Radical preacher Amritpal Singh arrested from Punjab's Moga"

Amritpal Singh was finally arrested.

[jaichind]

I looked over the candidate list so far in Karnataka.  There are 7 seats where the BJP and INC candidates are reversed from 2018.  All 7 are cases where the INC MLA defected to the BJP which in turn triggered the 2018 BJP loser to defect to INC.

[jaichind]

A look at the Karnataka candidate list revealed that there have been fairly few defections between BJP INC and JD(S).  There was a wave of INC MLA and JD(S) MLA defections to BJP in 2019 which brought down the JD(S)-INC government which represents a good part of the defectors running for BJP.  That set of defections also trigger a bunch of BJP to INC defections amount 2018 BJP candidates now left out in the cold.  Beyond that, there have been a few high-profile BJP defections to INC but that is mostly it between BJP and INC.  INC and JD(S) traded a few defections between them with INC getting a few more defections than JD(S) but the numbers are not large.

This election seems mostly a status quo election in terms of candidates.  BJP dropped a few sitting MLAs to avoid anti-incumbency but the numbers are not large when compared to other states (like Gujarat and HP.)  Some of them might rebel (or go to INC and JD(S).)  INC and JD(S) mostly re-nominated winnable 2018 candidates (even those that lost).

I did a first eyeball of guessing the results seat-by-seat and using a candidate quality adjusted approach along with a small swing from BJP and JD(S) to INC I get

INC      111
BJP        85
JD(S)     28

Which is similar to 2018 with BJP and INC flipped and a weaker JD(S).  JD(S) outperformed in 2018 and I suspect might do so again but for more I have them at 28 seats which frankly is not a bad result for them given the fact that the anti-BJP vote will swing to INC.

[jaichind]

Some Karnataka assembly election history from PoliticalBabba

[jaichind]

My writeup from 2018 on the history of Karnataka elections

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=281096.msg6008715#msg6008715

One can now add 2018 and 2019 to it

Karnataka 2018 Assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           224              81                38.89%  (SWJI in 1 seat was part of INC+)

INC rebel                        0                  1.39%

JD(S)+     218               38                18.81% (BSP was part of JD(S)+)

BJP           223            104                 36.67%

BJP rebel                       0                   1.02%

KPJP          20                1                   0.20%

JD(S)-INC government was formed after BJP failed to win a majority.  The government was crisis-ridden from the beginning.  INC and JD(S) formed an alliance for the 2019 LS elections which ended in disaster under the Modi wave plus local INC and JD(S) backstabbing.

Karnataka 2019 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+          28                2                41.85%  (JD(S) was part of INC+)

BJP+          28              26                53.76%

After the LS elections, the JD(S)-INC government fell with 15 INC and JD(S) MLA defecting and mostly winning by-elections for the BJP.

[jaichind]

TV9-CVoter for Karnataka

              Seat        Vote share
INC          111          40.0%
BJP            83          33.9%
JD(S)         28          18.8%
Others         2






Looks very similar to my back-of-the-envelope seat-by-seat candidate quality-adjusted projection based on a small swing toward INC which seems to be the C-voter assessment as well

I did a first eyeball of guessing the results seat-by-seat and using a candidate quality adjusted approach along with a small swing from BJP and JD(S) to INC I get

INC      111
BJP        85
JD(S)     28

Which is similar to 2018 with BJP and INC flipped and a weaker JD(S).  JD(S) outperformed in 2018 and I suspect might do so again but for more I have them at 28 seats which frankly is not a bad result for them given the fact that the anti-BJP vote will swing to INC.

For the BJP to be behind at this stage of the campaign as the ruling party it seems they are destined to lose the election.  Only question is will INC win a majority.

[jaichind]

https://www.hindustantimes.com/cities/mumbai-news/amid-ncp-rebellion-rumours-ajit-pawar-as-future-cm-poster-in-maharashtra-101682422416961.html

"Amid NCP rebellion rumours, ‘Ajit Pawar as future CM’ poster in Maharashtra"

I wonder if all this Ajit Pawar rebellion talk is more of a maneuver to ensure that he inherits the legacy of his uncle Sharad Pawar versus his cousin and Sharad Pawar's daughter Supriya Sule who is.  On paper, Ajit Pawar has a lot more seniority over his cousin but she is Sharad Pawar's daughter and he is only Sharad Pawar's nephew.

[jaichind]

In the Karnataka assembly elections, the dog that did not bark is the BJP not making Tipu Sultan and Hijab ban an issue in the election.  Most likely the BJP is discovering that anti-corruption anti-incumbency is a significant factor and any attempt by the BJP to push Hindu-Muslum polarization will be viewed as a cynical attempt to change the subject.  If the BJP loses the Hindu-Muslum polarization card, then what they have left is the old BJP GOTV machine, the Lingayat vote, and the Modi factor.   All of them would put a good 70-seat floor for the BJP but does not win the BJP a plurality, let alone a majority.

[jaichind]

Karnataka caste breakdown.

Lingayats tend to vote BJP, Vokkaliga tend to vote JD(S) while Dalits tend to vote INC.  Muslims can go between INC and JD(S). 

This is why INC is dead in UP and not in Karnataka.  In UP the Dalit vote went to BSP and then partly to BJP which makes the Muslim vote also abandon INC.  In Karnataka, the Dalit vote is solid for INC with BSP being nothing which also means the Muslim vote mostly votes for INC.  This cycle I suspect the Muslim tactical vote will for sure go INC.

[jaichind]

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/punjab/parkash-singh-badal-dies-at-95-live-updates-sad-leaders-workers-gather-at-party-office-in-chandigarh-to-pay-their-last-respects-501126

"Parkash Singh Badal dies at 95 LIVE UPDATES: PM Modi pays tributes to SAD patriarch in Chandigarh, says it was a 'personal loss'"

Old SAD CM of Punjab Parkash Singh Badal dies at 95.  He first became SAD CM back in the early 1970s for a short-lived government (with proto-BJP BJS support) and was CM on and off up until 2017. 

The 2022 Punjab assembly elections were the election that really weekended the Badal family in Punjab politics washed away by the AAP wave.  Parkash Singh Badal dies on a low note for his clan's political fortunes.

[jaichind]

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/congress-committed-to-increase-cap-to-75-siddaramaiah-raises-quota-pitch-101682524605345.html

"‘Congress will raise cap from 50% to…’: Siddaramaiah's aggressive quota pitch"

Former Karnataka INC CM Siddaramaiah is pushing for a 75% quota cap if INC comes to power.  This is very problematic since that would be much higher than the constitutional limit of 50% (exceptions exist for some NE tribal states.)  Of course, several states (like TN) already crossed the 50% limit and are in litigation over those decisions.   But 75% will be well above what those other states are up to.